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市場調查報告書

越南的國防工業未來展望 (2020年):市場誘因·競爭環境·未來預測

Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

出版商 Strategic Defence Intelligence 商品編碼 276353
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 100 Pages
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越南的國防工業未來展望 (2020年):市場誘因·競爭環境·未來預測 Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020
出版日期: 2015年06月30日 內容資訊: 英文 100 Pages

本報告已在2016年11月17日停止出版

簡介

越南的國防預算年平均成長率(CAGR)過去的實際成果(2011∼2015年)為14.25%,預測期間內推算為 (2016∼2020年) 7.51%。預測路期間內的國防費用累積值預測將為341億美金。此外,資本支出比例2011∼2015年為32.1%,2016∼2020年約為33%。另一方面,越南國防預算預測今後5年間合計為162億美金。主要投資領域有巡邏艦和潛水艇,監測系統等。

本報告提供打入越南國防產業之機會方面的詳細市場分析、預測,提供您今後的國防預算預測 (今後5年份) ,及國防活動·預算詳細趨勢,國防出口·進口趨勢,可望有所成長的新部門,具體的打入市場策略,主要國家內企業簡介 (概況,產品/服務,近幾年的經營謀略與趨勢,策略性聯盟,財務分析),越南經濟整體概況等資訊,為您概述為以下內容。

第1章 簡介

第2章 摘要整理

第3章 市場吸引力與新的機會

  • 國防市場的規模與預測
    • 國防費用的今後的年複合成長率(CAGR) 將達到7.51%
    • 國防費用增加的主要原因 (軍事現代化,南海危機)
    • 國防費用對GDP比率預計將為2.6%前後
  • 國防預算分配分析
    • 資本支出的比率預計今後將上升
    • 資本支出額今後的年複合成長率(CAGR) 將達到8.49%
    • 每人國防費用支出在2020年預計將達到80.2美元
  • 國土安全保障市場的規模與預測
    • 國防安全保障費支出,2020年預計將達到40億美元
    • 國防安全保障費增加的要素(毒品走私,人口販賣)
    • 國外恐怖主義者的攻擊風險非常低
  • 全球主要市場比較
    • 與其他的軍事大國比,越南的國防費用支出相對地低
    • 與亞洲週邊各國比,國防費用支出額也低
    • 國防費用支出佔GDP比率比域內其他軍事大國高
    • 越南幾乎沒暴露在國外的恐怖行動組織的威脅下
  • 市場機會:主要趨勢和促進成長要素
    • 護衛艦
    • SSK(反潛入潛水艇)用柴油電力推動式潛水艇
    • 戰鬥機·多功能機

第4章 國防採購市場動態

  • 進口市場動態
    • 國內國防能力的限制促進國防進口
    • 國防進口預計今後將增加
    • 俄羅斯是重要的國防貿易合作夥伴
    • 船舶·飛機佔國防進口的大半
  • 出口市場動態
    • 越南並未打入全球國防出口市場

第5章 產業動態

  • 波特的五力分析
    • 供應商談判力:中
    • 買主的購買力:低
    • 進入障礙:中
    • 同業間的競爭:低
    • 替代產品的威脅:低∼中

第6章 打入市場策略

  • 市場法規
    • 新採購原則的採用
    • 對沖契約並未完全撤除
  • 市場進入途徑
    • 國外廠商可透過直銷打入市場
    • 國家間交易:是對國外國防企業而言有吸引力的進入途徑
  • 主要課題
    • 民營企業·外資型企業過少,也抑制國內的國防工業的成長
    • 缺乏透明度和貪污妨礙國防工業的成長

第7章 競爭環境與策略性考察

  • 競爭環境概況
  • 主要
    • Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC)
    • Sukhoi
    • Admiralty Shipyards
    • Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding

第8章 經濟環境與國家風險

  • 人口結構·社會統計
  • 經濟實際成果
  • 能源·電力
  • 基本設備品質·可利用性
  • 礦物資源
  • 通訊

第9章 附錄

圖表一覽

目錄
Product Code: DF0318MR

Summary

The Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings

  • Over the historic period, Vietnam's defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 14.25%; between 2016 and 2020, the defense budget is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.51%
  • The country's total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$34.1billion
  • The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 33% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 32.1% during 2011-2015
  • Over the forecast period, the country's budget for homeland security is expected to be US$16.2 billion cumulatively
  • The key areas of investment are expected to be corvettes, submarine, and surveillance equipment

This report offers detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides in-depth analysis of the following:

  • Vietnamese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Vietnamese defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Vietnamese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
  • 1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.51% during the forecast period
    • 3.1.2. Military modernization and the crisis in the South China Sea are expected to be the prime factors driving Vietnamese military expenditure
    • 3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to hover around 2.6% over the forecast period
  • 3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase
    • 3.2.2. Vietnam's capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.49% over the forecast period
    • 3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure to be US$80.2 by 2020
  • 3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure is expected to be US$4.0 billion by 2020
    • 3.3.2. The main factors driving homeland security expenditure are illicit drugs trade and human trafficking
    • 3.3.3. Vietnam faces a minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations
  • 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.4.1. Vietnamese defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
    • 3.4.2. Vietnam has a low defense expenditure compared to other Asian countries
    • 3.4.3. Vietnam's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is higher than leading Asian defense spenders
    • 3.4.4. Vietnam faces negligible threat from foreign terrorist organizations
  • 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.5.1. Frigates
    • 3.5.2. SSK-Diesel Electric Submarine
    • 3.5.3. Infrastructure Construction

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. Limited domestic defense capabilities drives the country's defense imports
    • 4.1.2. Defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 4.1.3. Russia is a significant defense trade partner of Vietnam
    • 4.1.4. Ships and aircraft account for the majority of defense imports over 2010-2014
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. The country has been unable to access the global defense market

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
    • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. Vietnamese government unveils new procurement rules
    • 6.1.2. Vietnam has not disclosed any offset obligations
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Foreign equipment manufacturers can enter the market through direct commercial sales
    • 6.2.2. Government-to-government deals are an attractive entry route to the country's defense market
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. Lack of private participants and foreign direct investment may restrict domestic defense industry growth
    • 6.3.2. Lack of transparency and corruption impedes the growth of Vietnam's defense industry

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

  • 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
  • 7.2. Key Companies
    • 7.2.1. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): overview
    • 7.2.2. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): products
    • 7.2.3. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.4. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): alliances
    • 7.2.5. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC): recent contract awards
    • 7.2.6. Sukhoi: overview
    • 7.2.7. Sukhoi: products
    • 7.2.8. Sukhoi: recent contract awards
    • 7.2.9. Admiralty Shipyards: overview
    • 7.2.10. Admiralty Shipyards: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.11. Admiralty Shipyards: products
    • 7.2.12. Admiralty Shipyards: recent contract awards
    • 7.2.13. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: overview
    • 7.2.14. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: products
    • 7.2.15. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: recent contract awards

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
    • 8.1.1. Population - Rural
    • 8.1.2. Population - Urban
    • 8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
  • 8.2. Economic Performance
    • 8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
    • 8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
    • 8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
    • 8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
    • 8.2.5. Manufacturing Output
    • 8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
    • 8.2.7. Local Currency Unit per US$
    • 8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per EUR
    • 8.2.9. Lending Rate (%)
    • 8.2.10. Deposit Rate (%)
    • 8.2.11. Real Interest Rate (%)
    • 8.2.12. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.13. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.14. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.15. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.16. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.17. Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.2.18. International reserves, including Gold
  • 8.3. Energy and Utilities
    • 8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
    • 8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
    • 8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
    • 8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
    • 8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption
    • 8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
  • 8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
    • 8.4.1. Rail lines, total network
    • 8.4.2. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
    • 8.4.3. Overall Construction (US$ billion)
  • 8.5. Minerals
    • 8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
  • 8.6. Telecommunication
    • 8.6.1. Telephone lines
    • 8.6.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About SDI
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
  • Table 2: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
  • Table 3: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Table 4: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Table 5: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
  • Table 6: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
  • Table 7: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
  • Table 8: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
  • Table 9: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
  • Table 10: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
  • Table 11: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Table 12: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Table 13: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
  • Table 14: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
  • Table 15: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
  • Table 16: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
  • Table 17: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Table 18: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
  • Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index
  • Table 21: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Product Focus
  • Table 22: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Alliances
  • Table 23: Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC) - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 24:Sukhoi - Product Focus
  • Table 25: Sukhoi - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 26:Admiralty Shipyards - Product Focus
  • Table 27: Admiralty Shipyards - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 28: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding - Product Focus
  • Table 29: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 2: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 3: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 4: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 5: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
  • Figure 6: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
  • Figure 7: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
  • Figure 8: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
  • Figure 9: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 10: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 11: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 12: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 13: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
  • Figure 14: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
  • Figure 15: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 16: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 17: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2011-2015
  • Figure 18: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2016-2020
  • Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
  • Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
  • Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
  • Figure 22: Benchmarking with World's Largest and Top Regional Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
  • Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
  • Figure 24: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
  • Figure 25: SSK-diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
  • Figure 26: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
  • Figure 27: Vietnamese Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)
  • Figure 28: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014
  • Figure 29: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014
  • Figure 30: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 31: Vietnam's Population - Rural (Millions), 2015-2024
  • Figure 32: Vietnam's Population - Urban (Millions), 2015-2024
  • Figure 33: Vietnam's Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
  • Figure 34: Vietnam's GDP per capita, 2015-2024
  • Figure 35: Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 36: Vietnam's Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 37: Vietnam's Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 38: Vietnam's Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 39: Vietnam's Consumer Price Index, 2015-2024
  • Figure 40: Vietnam's LCU per US$, 2015-2024
  • Figure 41: Vietnam's LCU per EUR, 2015-2024
  • Figure 42: Vietnam's Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
  • Figure 43: Vietnam's Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
  • Figure 44: Vietnam's Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012
  • Figure 45: Vietnam's Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 46: Vietnam's Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 47: Vietnam's Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 48: Vietnam's Services Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 49: Vietnam's Services Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 50: Vietnam's Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
  • Figure 51: Vietnam's International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 52: Vietnam's Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002-2011
  • Figure 53: Vietnam's Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
  • Figure 54: Vietnam's Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
  • Figure 55: Vietnam's Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2014
  • Figure 56: Vietnam's Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012
  • Figure 57: Vietnam's Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2005-2014
  • Figure 58: Vietnam's Rail lines (total route-Km), 2003-2012
  • Figure 59: Vietnam's Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012
  • Figure 60: Vietnam's Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2008-2016
  • Figure 61: Vietnam's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 62: Vietnam's Telephone lines, 2006-2012
  • Figure 63: Vietnam's Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2006-2012
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