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市場調查報告書

俄羅斯的國防工業預測:市場魅力,競爭情形,預測

The Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

出版商 Strategic Defence Intelligence 商品編碼 264654
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 139 Pages
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俄羅斯的國防工業預測:市場魅力,競爭情形,預測 The Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022
出版日期: 2017年09月12日 內容資訊: 英文 139 Pages
簡介

俄羅斯的國防費用,預計將以年複合成長率(CAGR)12.84%的速度擴大,到2019年佔GDP的4.5%。

本報告提供俄羅斯的國防工業調查分析,提供國防預算的詳細內容與預測,不同市場區隔的市場詳細內容與預測,再加上主要企業簡介,過去12個月的新興趨勢與機會等彙整資料,為您概述為以下內容。

第1章 簡介

第2章 摘要整理

第3章 市場魅力和新興的機會

  • 國防市場規模的實際成果與預測
  • 國防預算分配分析
  • 國家安全市場的規模與預測
  • 主要全球市場的基準
  • 市場機會:主要趨勢與促進成長要素

第4章 國防採購市場趨勢

  • 進口市場趨勢
  • 出口市場趨勢

第5章 產業趨勢

  • 波特的五力分析

第6章 打入市場策略

  • 市場法規
  • 打入市場途徑
  • 主要課題

第7章 競爭情形與策略性考察

  • 競爭情形概要
  • 主要的國內企業
    • Sukhoi
    • Splav
    • Tactical Missiles Corporation
    • Almaz-Antey
    • United Aircraft Corporation
    • KBP Instrument Design Bureau
    • V.A. Degtyarev Plant
    • Kurganmashzavod
    • Uralvagonzavod
    • Izhevsk Mechanical Works
    • Irkut Corporation
    • Oboronprom Corporation

第8章 經濟環境與國家風險

  • 人口·社會統計
  • 經濟實際成果
  • 能源和公共事業
  • 基本設備品質及利用性
  • 礦物
  • 技術
  • 通訊

第9章 附錄

圖表

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目錄

Summary:

Russian military expenditure values US$48.7 Billion in 2017 and registered a CAGR of -7.40% during 2013-2017. Russian defense modernization has traditionally been funded by booming oil and gas profits; however the crash in the global energy market has resulted in erosion in the country's revenues and as such has forced the country to adopt austerity measures to cut down on government expenditure. The problem is further compounded by the on-going sanctions on Russia, which have forced the country to rationalize its expenditure and prioritize investments.

Russian homeland security (HLS) expenditure recorded a CAGR of -16.80% during the historic period. However, it is estimated to record a CAGR of 5.39% during the forecast period to 2022. This expenditure is primarily driven by the need to protect the country from cyber threats, and to strengthen its border protection, by investing in surveillance and intelligence technologies such as electronic identification documents, automated border crossing systems, and CCTV (closed circuit television) systems.

Aircraft accounted for the largest share of imports during 2012-2016, with Ukraine being the biggest supplier. The country acquired Antonov An-148 aircraft in 2013, Mi-28N helicopters and Mi-35M helicopters, Su-27SM3, Su-34, Yak-130, and Su-35S aircraft during 2012-2016, and the other significant import partners include Italy, the Czech Republic, Turkey, and France. However, the sanctions placed on Russian entities, owing to its involvement in the Ukrainian civil war have effectively ceased any further supplies to the Russian arms industry, except Turkey, none of the other European defense trade partners have supplied any major defense equipment to the country since 2014.

Russian weapons and equipment are also in high demand internationally, due to affordability and performance standards. India, Vietnam and China are Russia's biggest defense export consumers, but have reduced procurements over the last couple of years; as a result the Russian Government is now focused on expanding its export market to countries in South America and Africa. Other major consumers of Russia's military goods include Algeria, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, and Iraq.

The report "The Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022" offers detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The Russian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns.
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Russian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry.
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years.
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years.
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Russian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
  • Companies mentioned in this report: United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Sukhoi, Splav, Tactical Missiles Corporation, Almaz-Antey, KBP Instrument Design Bureau, V.A.Degtyarev Plant, Kurganmashzavod, Uralvagonzavod, Izhevsk Mechanical Works (IZHMASH), Irkut Corporation, Oboronprom Corporation

Scope:

Russia's defense expenditure in 2017 values US$48.7 billion, recording a CAGR of -7.40% during the historic period, and it is expected to cumulatively value US$270.8 billion over the forecast period. Russia has the world's longest land border, which it shares with 16 other countries, along with maritime borders with Japan, via the sea of Okhotsk, and the US state of Alaska, across the Bering Strait. The country places the utmost importance on the protection of its borders and critical infrastructure, which covers a large geographical area that is rich in natural resources.

During the historic period, the Russian Government allocated an average of 47.1% of its total defense budget to capital expenditure and the remaining 52.9% to revenue expenditure. Capital expenditure is expected to decrease during the forecast period to an average of 40.2%, due to the Russian Ministry of Finance setting a target of cutting defense spending by 12% by 2018.

The MoD is expected to invest in space based ISR, transport aircraft, and multi-role aircraft.

Reasons to buy:

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Russian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario
    • 3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
    • 3.1.2. Military Doctrine. Strategy
    • 3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
    • 3.1.4. Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment. Support for Defense Projects
    • 3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Russia's defense budget to grow at. CAGR of 8.62% to value US$65.2 billion by 2022
    • 3.2.2. Military modernization and defense exports to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period
    • 3.2.3. Defense expenditure as. percentage of GDP is expected to average 3.14% over the forecast period
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. The majority of Russia's defense budget is allocated to revenue expenditure
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to record. CAGR of 20.47% during the forecast period
    • 3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
  • 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.4.1. Russian homeland security expenditure forecast to reach US$41.1 billion by 2022
    • 3.4.2. Border security and the fight against cyber-attacks are mains factors for growth in the homeland security market
    • 3.4.3. The Terrorism Heat Map considers Russia. "highly affected" region
    • 3.4.4. Russia faces "high risk" from acts of terrorism
    • 3.4.5. Russia faces. significant threat from terrorists
  • 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.5.1. Russia's defense budget is expected to grow significantly during the forecast period
    • 3.5.2. Russia is world's third largest defense spender
    • 3.5.3. Russia allocated 3.1% of its GDP to defense in 2017
  • 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.6.1. Space-based ISR
    • 3.6.2. Transport Aircraft
    • 3.6.3. Multi-role Aircraft

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. The country's defense imports are low owing to. developed indigenous sector
    • 4.1.2. Ukraine was the key defense supplier to Russia
    • 4.1.3. Aircraft and engines were the key defense imports during 2012-2016
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Russia's exports witnessed. decline during 2012-2016
    • 4.2.2. India, China, and Vietnam are Russia's main defense equipment purchasers
    • 4.2.3. Aircraft and ships account for the majority of Russia's defense exports

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium to high
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
    • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. Entry into defense sector is highly regulated
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Budgeting Process
    • 6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. Russian Government's aversion to Western defense technology

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

  • 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
    • 7.1.1. Domestic industry in the process of consolidation for better focus and fund allocation
    • 7.1.2. Defense sector is dominated by domestic firms, with no foreign presence
  • 7.2. Key Domestic Companies
    • 7.2.1. United Aircraft Corporation. overview
    • 7.2.2. United Aircraft Corporation. Major Products
    • 7.2.3. United Aircraft Corporation. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.4. United Aircraft Corporation. Alliances
    • 7.2.5. Sukhoi: overview
    • 7.2.6. Sukhoi: Products
    • 7.2.7. Sukhoi: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.8. Sukhoi: Alliances
    • 7.2.9. Sukhoi: Recent Contract Awards
    • 7.2.10. Splav. overview
    • 7.2.11. Splav. Major Products
    • 7.2.12. Tactical Missiles Corporation: overview
    • 7.2.13. Tactical Missiles Corporation. Major Products
    • 7.2.14. Tactical Missiles Corporation. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.15. Tactical Missiles Corporation. Alliances
    • 7.2.16. Tactical Missiles Corporation. Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.17. Almaz-Antey. overview
    • 7.2.18. Almaz-Antey. Major Products
    • 7.2.19. Almaz-Antey. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.20. Almaz-Antey. Alliances
    • 7.2.21. Almaz-Antey. Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.22. KBP Instrument Design Bureau. overview
    • 7.2.23. KBP Instrument Design Bureau. Major Products
    • 7.2.24. KBP Instrument Design Bureau. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.25. KBP Instrument Design Bureau. Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.26. V.A.Degtyarev Plant. overview
    • 7.2.27. V.A.Degtyarev Plant. Major Products
    • 7.2.28. Kurganmashzavod. overview
    • 7.2.29. Kurganmashzavod. Major Products and Services
    • 7.2.30. Kurganmashzavod. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.31. Kurganmashzavod. alliances
    • 7.2.32. Kurganmashzavod. recent contract wins
    • 7.2.33. Uralvagonzavod. Overview
    • 7.2.34. Uralvagonzavod. Major Products
    • 7.2.35. Uralvagonzavod. Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.36. Uralvagonzavod. Alliances
    • 7.2.37. Uralvagonzavod. Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.38. Izhevsk Mechanical Works. overview
    • 7.2.39. Izhevsk Mechanical Works. Major Products
    • 7.2.40. Izhevsk Mechanical Works. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.41. Irkut Corporation. overview
    • 7.2.42. Irkut Corporation. Major Products
    • 7.2.43. Irkut Corporation. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.44. Irkut Corporation. Alliances
    • 7.2.45. Irkut Corporation. Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.46. Irkut Corporation. financial analysis
    • 7.2.47. Oboronprom Corporation. overview
    • 7.2.48. Oboronprom Corporation. Major Products
    • 7.2.49. Oboronprom Corporation. recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.50. Oboronprom Corporation. Alliances
    • 7.2.51. Oboronprom Corporation. Recent Contract Wins

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. GDP Per Capita, US$
    • 8.1.2. GDP (current US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
    • 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
    • 8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.6. LCU per US$ (Period Average)
    • 8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
    • 8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as. of GDP (LCU)
    • 8.1.10. Goods Exports as. Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.11. Goods Imports as. Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.12. Services Imports as. Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.13. Services Exports as. percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as. Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About SDI
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Key Electronic Warfare Systems
  • Table 2: Key Tactical Attack Weapon Systems and Precision Guided Munitions Projects
  • Table 3: Key Long Range Ballistic Missile Programs
  • Table 4: Ongoing Nuclear Delivery Platform Programs
  • Table 5: Ongoing Naval Modernization Programs
  • Table 6: Key Air Force Modernization Programs
  • Table 7: Key Air Defense Programs
  • Table 8: Key Air Force Transport Aircraft Modernization Programs
  • Table 9: Key Programs for Development of Unmanned Systems
  • Table 10: Key Army Modernization Programs
  • Table 11: Russian Ground Forces Strength
  • Table 12: Russian Aerospace Defense Forces Strength
  • Table 13: Russian Naval Forces Strength
  • Table 14: Russian - On-going Development and Procurement Programs
  • Table 15: Russian - Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 16: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 17: Russian GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022
  • Table 18: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Table 19: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (RUB Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 20: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Table 21: Russian Homeland Security Expenditure (RUB Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 22: Terrorism Index, 2017
  • Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
  • Table 24: Russian Budget Formation Timetable
  • Table 25: Competitive Landscape of the Russian Defense Industry
  • Table 26: United Aircraft Corporation - Major Products
  • Table 27: United Aircraft Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 28: Sukhoi - Major Products
  • Table 29: Sukhoi - Alliances
  • Table 30: Sukhoi - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 31: Splav - Major Products
  • Table 32: Tactical Missiles Corporation - Major Products
  • Table 33: Tactical Missiles Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 34: Tactical Missiles Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 35: Almaz-Antey - Major Products
  • Table 36: Almaz-Antey - Alliances
  • Table 37: Almaz-Antey - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 38: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - Major Products
  • Table 39: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins
  • Table 40: V.A.Degtyarev Plant - Major Products
  • Table 41: Kurganmashzavod - Major Products and Services
  • Table 42: Kurganmashzavod - Alliances
  • Table 43: Kurganmashzavod - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 44: Uralvagonzavod - Major Products
  • Table 45: Uralvagonzavod - Alliances
  • Table 46: Uralvagonzavod - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 47: Izhevsk Mechanical Works - Major Products
  • Table 48: Irkut Corporation - Major Products
  • Table 49: Irkut Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 50: Irkut Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 51: Oboronprom Corporation - Major Products
  • Table 52: Oboronprom Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 53: Oboronprom Corporation - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022
  • Figure 4:Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Figure 5: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 6: Russian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 7: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Figure 8: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 9: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017
  • Figure 11: Terrorism Index
  • Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
  • Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022
  • Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017
  • Figure 15: Space-Based ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027
  • Figure 16: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027
  • Figure 17: Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027
  • Figure 18: Russian Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values)
  • Figure 19: Russian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 20: Russian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 21: Russian Defense Export Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values)
  • Figure 22: Russian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 23: Russian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 24: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 25: Irkut Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2012-2016
  • Figure 26: Irkut Corporation - Operating Profit (US$ Million), 2012-2016
  • Figure 27: Irkut Corporation - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2012-2016
  • Figure 28: GDP Per Capita in US$, 2015-2025
  • Figure 29: GDP (Current US$ Billion), 2015-2025
  • Figure 30: Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 31: Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 32: Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2008-2013
  • Figure 33: LCU Per US$ (Period Average), 2015-2024
  • Figure 34: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 35: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
  • Figure 36: Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2003-2012
  • Figure 37: Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 38: Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 39: Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 40: Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
  • Figure 41: Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 42: Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 43: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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