核能發電的未來：成長機會、市場風險、今後技術發展的影響

Nuclear power remains at the forefront of the debate about fuel security, the environmental impact of reliance on fossil fuels and the long-term cost benefits of switching to renewable power sources. Beneath the emotional arguments for and against nuclear energy there are also complex cost factors which alter just how attractive nuclear power really is in the long and short term against traditional and emerging power generation technologies.

The Future of Nuclear Power is a new management report that critically evaluates the investment in nuclear power. It includes a detailed analysis of the market drivers, resistors, opportunities and risks. This new report also comprehensively examines the current and future nuclear power generation technologies, the environmental effects, cost factors, benefits and contains a survey of nuclear fuel processing and reprocessing.

Use the independent analysis in this new report to recognize future investment opportunities for growth and anticipate market threats.

• In terms of CO2 emission rates, nuclear power outperforms all other power generation technologies except hydropower with between 6 and 26 t/GWh of emissions. Life-cycle analysis of emissions also place it very similarly to hydropower.
• Build data shows that the cost of construction of nuclear power plants rose well above the rate of inflation between 1970 and 2000, partly because of safety and the cost of innovation. However, both France and Japan have been able to keep costs significantly lower, providing a model for future nuclear growth.
• Recent studies - and some real costs of construction - imply that the cost of building a third-generation nuclear power plant today is approximately $2,000/kW, compared to historical costs of $3,000/kW.
• Numerous studies point to nuclear power providing a lower cost of power than either coal or gas. At a 5% discount rate, for example, the cost of nuclear electricity may be half that of gas-fired generation.

This new report will provide you with...

• Detailed analysis of the capital costs of nuclear power - by technology and across countries - versus other power generation technologies.
• Investigation of the true cost of electricity from nuclear power and comparison with competing power generation technologies.
• Evaluation of the major issues surrounding provision of adequate supplies of nuclear fuel and their impact on the cost of nuclear power.
• In-depth examination of nuclear power generation technologies, including third generation designs.
• Forecast of the future of nuclear power and the key drivers and resistors of capacity growth.

Some key questions answered in this report...

• What is the likelihood of major changes in the cost of fuel over the next ten years?
• How do discount loan rates affect the cost of nuclear electricity?
• What is the impact of power generation technology on the capital cost of nuclear power?
• How will nuclear capacity grow between now and 2015?
• What are the CO2 emissions of nuclear power on a life-cycle based analysis?
• What are the main risks associated with nuclear power?

Some hot issues covered in this report...

• Nuclear risk - the Chernobyl disaster and how it still casts a long shadow over the development of future nuclear projects.
• The cost of fuel - the impact on fuel costs, as military and civilian surpluses of enriched uranium dwindle.
• Loan discount rates - and the impact of the cost of power.
• CO2 emission rates - of nuclear power and other competing technologies.
• Capacity growth - the impact on investment in nuclear and the countries that will lead new development projects.

Top 5 reasons to order this new report today

• Discover the relative costs of nuclear power and other power generation technologies.
• Recognize the levels of risk associated with nuclear energy and its role in reducing CO2 emissions.
• Examine the different types of nuclear power generation and how this drives the cost of electricity in different geographies.
• Identify the drivers and resistors of nuclear power capacity growth and future growth predictions.
• Assess which factors can have an impact on the cost of new nuclear projects.

Executive Summary

• Introduction
• Nuclear fuel
• Nuclear power generation technology
• Risk and the environment
• Nuclear economics
• The future of nuclear power

Chapter 1 Introduction to nuclear power

• Introduction
• Nuclear development and stagnation
• The current situation
• Nuclear risk
• Why build more nuclear plants
• This report

Chapter 2 Nuclear fuel

• Introduction
• Uranium production
• Uranium enrichment
• Other nuclear fuels
• Energy content of uranium

Chapter 3 Nuclear power generation technology

• Introduction
• Controlling the nuclear reaction
• Moderators
• Reactor designs
• Boiling water reactor (BWR)
• Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
• Pressurized heavy water reactor (Candu reactor)
• Gas-cooled reactors
• RBMK reactor
• High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR)
• Breeder reactors
• New and advanced reactor designs
• Third generation designs
• ABWR
• AP1000
• APR1400
• ESBWR
• EPR
• ACR Series
• PBMR
• Other third generation designs
• Fourth generation designs
• Hydrogen production
• Some economic considerations

Chapter 4 Nuclear risk and the environmental effects of nuclear power

• Introduction
• Net Energy Analysis
• Lifetime CO2 emission analysis
• Nuclear risk
• Power plant safety
• Nuclear waste disposal
• Nuclear proliferation
• International terrorism

Chapter 5 Economics of nuclear power

• Introduction
• The cost of building a nuclear power plant
• Historical construction
• Capital cost of a new nuclear power plant
• The cost of electricity from nuclear power plants
• Nuclear fuel costs
• Chapter 6 The future of nuclear power
• Introduction
• Economics
• Fuel costs
• Greenhouse emissions
• Kyoto mechanisms
• Energy security
• Risks
• Nuclear scenarios
• Capacity erosion
• Maintaining the status quo
• Major capacity growth
• Nuclear capacity growth

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: Global nuclear generating capacity (GW), 1960-2007
• Figure 1.2: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1980-2005
• Figure 1.3: Leading countries for nuclear generation, 2007
• Figure 2.4: World uranium resources (1,000t), by region
• Figure 2.5: World uranium production (tonnes of U), 2005
• Figure 4.6: CO2 emission rates based on UIC collated data (t/GWh)
• Figure 4.7: Life-cycle analysis-based CO2 emissions (t/GWh)
• Figure 5.8: Cost of power from different sources as a function of discount rate ($/MWh)
• Figure 5.9: Cost of electricity in Japan ($/MWh), 1999
• Figure 6.10: The cost of electricity using different technologies (€ /kWh)

List of Tables

• Table 1.1: Global nuclear generating capacity (GW), 1960-2007
• Table 1.2: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1980-2005
• Table 2.3: World uranium resources (1,000t), by region
• Table 2.4: World uranium production (tonnes of U), 2005
• Table 2.5: World uranium enrichment capacity (1000 kg SWU/y)
• Table 3.6: World reactors in operation by type, 2007
• Table 3.7: Third generation reactor designs
• Table 4.8: Life cycle energy efficiencies of different technologies
• Table 4.9: Energy payback ratios, by power generation technology
• Table 4.10: Input percentage of lifetime output for nuclear fission plants with fuel from different sources
• Table 4.11: Greenhouse gas emission rates for different technologies (Tonnes of CO2 equivalent/GWh), US
• Table 4.12: CO2 emission rates based on UIC collated data (t/GWh)
• Table 4.13: Life-cycle analysis-based CO2 emissions (t/GWh)
• Table 5.14: Historical costs of construction of nuclear power plants (Cost/kW)
• Table 5.15: Cost of a new nuclear power plant (Cost/kW)
• Table 5.16: Cost of power from different sources as a function of discount rate ($/MWh)
• Table 5.17: Cost of electricity from different sources, entering service in 2015 (€ /MWh)
• Table 5.18: Cost of electricity in Japan ($/MWh), 1999
• Table 5.19: Cost of electricity generation in Vietnam Cost ($/MWh @ a Discount rate of 5%)
• Table 6.20: The cost of electricity using different technologies (€ /kWh)
• Table 6.21: Predicted growth in nuclear capacity (GW)