產業界的破壞性技術：未來趨勢、影響以及對於替代技術的弱點

產業界的破壞性技術：未來趨勢、影響以及對於替代技術的弱點 是由出版商Business Insights在2009年11月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含165 pages 價格從美金2875起跳。

簡介

汽車、手機、個人電腦等，都屬於破壞性技術的事例，貫穿了近代商業史，而破壞性技術不知從何處出現，對既有技術與週邊跟隨成長的產業和廠商造成威脅，最後進而取代的事例不勝枚舉。具體事例來說，如大型電腦主機產業和通信、儲存裝置等。

本報告，提供潛在的破壞性技術之模式和特性、洞察技術創新的趨勢、以及相對於破壞性創新的弱點評估方式。此外，根據該結果提供避免威脅的最適當對應方式，將調查報告由下列摘要形式闡述。

報告摘要

• 評估破壞性技術的策略
• NAND快閃記憶體
• 基礎建設虛擬化
• 雲端運算
• 開放原始碼通訊裝置

第1章 簡介以及報告的對象範圍

• 簡介
• 報告的使用對象
• 調查方式
• 定義
  • 破壞性技術
  • NAND快閃記憶體
  • 基礎建設虛擬化
  • 雲端運算
  • 開放原始碼通訊裝置

第2章 評估破壞性技術的策略

• 摘要
• 簡介
  • 何謂破壞性技術？
  • 破壞性技術的事例
• 定義破壞性技術
  • 創新者的困境
  • 破壞性技術的進化
  • 破壞性技術的特性
• 破壞性創新（Disruption）的發展以及阻礙因素
  • 經濟、規範、社會因素
  • 內在以及外在因素
• 技術創新與商業價值
  • 技術創新的種類
• 預期破壞性創新的策略
  • 「影響」對「導入」
• 破壞性創新的評價模式
  • 影響
  • 導入
• 評估破壞性創新的可能性
• 結論

第3章 NAND快閃記憶體

• 摘要
• 簡介
  • 被認為是潛在的破壞性技術之理由
• 市場狀況
  • 市場商機
  • 發展以及阻礙因素
• 廠商環境
• 「影響」對「導入」之評價
  • 影響
  • 導入
  • 「影響」對「導入」評價圖
• 結論

第4章 基礎建設虛擬化

• 摘要
• 簡介
  • 被認為是潛在的破壞性技術之理由
• 市場狀況
  • 市場商機
  • 發展因素
  • 阻礙因素
• 廠商環境
  • 「開放原始碼」對「所有權」
  • VMware
  • Microsoft
  • XenSource
  • Citrix
• 「影響」對「導入」之評價
  • 影響
  • 導入
  • 「影響」對「導入」評價圖
• 結論

第5章 雲端運算

• 摘要
• 簡介
  • 被認為是潛在的破壞性技術之理由
• 市場狀況
  • 市場商機
  • 發展因素
  • 阻礙因素
• 廠商環境
  • 硬體廠商
  • 雲端基礎建設業者
  • 雲端平台
  • SaaS應用開發業者
• 「影響」對「導入」之評價
  • 影響
  • 導入
  • 「影響」對「導入」評價圖

第6章 開放原始碼通訊裝置

• 摘要
• 簡介
  • 被認為是潛在的破壞性技術之理由
• 市場狀況
  • 市場商機
  • 發展因素
  • 阻礙因素
• 廠商環境
• 「影響」對「導入」之評價

• 結論

第7章 索引

圖表

目錄

Abstract

During unfavourable economic conditions, technological innovation is one of the first investments to suffer. However, as history has shown, ignoring technological innovation and development can leave organisations, and indeed entire industries, vulnerable to disruption from new technologies. This report explains what disruption is, what causes it, and how organisations can avoid it.

The motor car, mobile phones, personal computers, and so on, are all examples of disruptive technologies. There are numerous examples throughout modern business history of disruptive technologies appearing, apparently from nowhere, to threaten and ultimately displace existing technologies and the industries and vendors that grew up around them - such as the mainframe industry, communications and storage.

But disruption is rarely a consequence of technology innovation alone, rather a reflection of how existing organizations and markets deal with it. While disruptive innovation can be seen as a threat, it is also an opportunity, and indeed a necessity in the rapidly evolving world of IT and business technology.

Modern history suggests that accurate prediction of disruptive technologies is challenging, however a look at past examples can reveal important characteristics and similarities between disruptive technologies. This report aims to provide insight into the patterns and characteristics of potentially disruptive technologies and innovation trends, and provide ways of assessing vulnerability to disruption. As a result, organizations can use this insight to understood how best to avoid the threat of disruption.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• Strategies for assessing disruptive technology
• NAND Flash storage
• Infrastructure virtualization
• Cloud computing
• Open source communications devices

Chapter 1 - Introduction and scope of the report

• Introduction
• Who is this report for?
• Research methodology

• Definitions
• Disruptive technology
• NAND Flash storage
• Infrastructure virtualization
• Cloud computing
• Open source communications devices

Chapter 2 - Strategies for assessing disruptive technology

• Summary

• Introduction
• What is a disruptive technology?
• Examples of disruptive technologies

• Defining disruptive patterns
• The Innovator' s Dilemma
• The evolution of a disruptive technology
• Characteristics of a disruptive technology

• Drivers and inhibitors of disruption
• Economic, regulatory and social factors
• Intrinsic and extrinsic factors

• Innovation and business value
• Types of innovation
  • Business value through disruption

• Strategies for predicting disruption
• Impact versus adoption
  • Peripheral, non-disruptive innovation
  • Immature disruptive innovation
  • Maturing disruptive technology
  • Core, non-disruptive innovation

• Disruption assessment model
• 1. Impact
• 2. Adoption

• Assessing the current potential for disruption

• Conclusions

Chapter 3 - NAND Flash storage

• Summary

• Introduction
• Why is it potentially disruptive?

• Market context
• Market opportunity
  • Portable devices
  • Data center
• Drivers and inhibitors
  • Drivers
  • Inhibitors

• Vendor landscape

• Impact versus adoption assessment
• Impact
• Adoption
• Impact versus adoption assessment chart

• Conclusions

Chapter 4 - Infrastructure virtualization

• Summary

• Introduction
• Why virtualization is potentially disruptive

• Market context
• Market opportunity
• Market drivers
  • Carbon footprint
  • Overcapacity and IT consolidation
  • IT agility
  • IT management and staff costs
  • Business continuity and agility
• Inhibitors
  • Operational and business barriers
  • Automation and management challenges
  • Lack of interoperability
  • Challenges in maximizing benefits

• Vendor landscape
• Open source versus proprietary
• VMware
• Microsoft
• XenSource
• Citrix

• Impact versus adoption assessment
• Impact
• Adoption
• Impact versus adoption assessment chart

• Conclusions

Chapter 5 - Cloud computing

• Summary

• Introduction
• Why is it potentially disruptive?

• Market context
• Market opportunity
• Market drivers
  • Services-based approach to IT
  • ‘Elasticity'
  • Variable costs and usage-based models
  • Driving down costs in enterprise IT
  • New IT economies
• Inhibitors
  • Lack of trust
  • Service adoption and management challenges
  • Matching optimal delivery models
  • Formulating the business case
  • Procurement processes
  • Migration challenges

• Vendor landscape
• Hardware vendors
  • Portable devices
• Cloud infrastructure services providers
• Cloud platforms
  • SaaS-backed platforms
  • Stack platforms
  • Stand-alone platforms
• SaaS applications developers

• Impact versus adoption assessment
• Impact
• Adoption
• Impact versus adoption assessment chart

• Conclusions

Chapter 6 - Open source communications devices

• Summary

• Introduction
• Why is it potentially disruptive?

• Market context
• Market opportunity
• Market drivers
• Market inhibitors

• Vendor landscape

• Impact versus adoption assessment
• Impact
• Adoption
• Impact versus adoption assessment chart

• Conclusions

Chapter 7 - Index

List of Figures

• Figure 2.1: The evolution of a disruptive technology
• Figure 2.2: Interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruption
• Figure 2.3: Disruptive technology and business value
• Figure 2.4: Business value applied to current innovations
• Figure 2.5: Impact versus adoption - the progression of disruptive innovation
• Figure 2.6: Areas of business value important to organizations - CIO respondent average ratings
• Figure 2.7: The impact of innovations on enterprises in the next three years - CIO respondent average ratings
• Figure 2.8: Business areas where there is most room for improvement? (% CIO respondents)
• Figure 2.9: Technologies that have most transformed organizations in the last two years - CIO respondent average ratings
• Figure 2.10: How organizations monitor upcoming technologies - CIO respondent average ratings
• Figure 2.11: Does your organization have a future technology roadmap in place? (% CIO respondents)
• Figure 2.12: How organizations test upcoming / innovative technologies before purchase - % respondents
• Figure 3.13: NAND Flash impact score summary
• Figure 3.14: NAND Flash adoption score summary
• Figure 3.15: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - NAND flash storage
• Figure 4.16: Data center overcapacity
• Figure 4.17: The most pressing needs for improvement in the IT department - % CIO respondents
• Figure 4.18: Infrastructure virtualization impact score summary
• Figure 4.19: Infrastructure virtualization adoption score summary
• Figure 4.20: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - infrastructure virtualization
• Figure 5.21: Cloud computing overlaps with other technology terms and trends
• Figure 5.22: Cloud computing as an IT consumption model
• Figure 5.23: Cloud computing - the competitive landscape
• Figure 5.24: The gap between IT capacity and IT demand
• Figure 5.25: Cloud computing impact score summary
• Figure 5.26: Cloud computing adoption score summary
• Figure 5.27: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - cloud computing
• Figure 6.28: Global smartphone annual shipments (000s), 2008-2014
• Figure 6.29: Open source communications devices impact score summary
• Figure 6.30: Open source communications adoption score summary
• Figure 6.31: Impact versus adoption final assessment chart - open source communication devices

List of Tables

• Table 2.1: Examples of disruptive technologies
• Table 2.2: Characteristics of an early-stage disruptive technology
• Table 2.3: Example of drivers and inhibitors of disruption
• Table 2.4: Intrinsic and extrinsic factors for disruptive technologies
• Table 2.5: Different types of innovation
• Table 2.6: Criteria for measuring disruptiveness of innovations
• Table 2.7: Business Insights survey results - where is there most room for improvement in business areas? (% CIO respondents)
• Table 4.8: Cost savings possible through server consolidation
• Table 6.9: Global smartphone annual shipments by OS (000s), 2008-2014

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