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市場調查報告書

藥品產業授權合約的評價指南

Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals

出版商 IMS World Publications Ltd. 商品編碼 89963
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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藥品產業授權合約的評價指南 Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals
出版日期: 2016年06月30日 內容資訊: 英文
簡介

本報告書內容包括:大型製藥企業與生物企業、學術機構的合作網路中執行的授權合約的各種問題、正確的價値評價及價値創造流程、未來的風險最小化策略等。內容綱要摘記如下:

第1章 介紹

  • 藥品產業的交易
  • 價値創出
  • 目的

第2章 價値評價方法

  • 整合方法
  • 為什麼參考eNPV呢?
  • 其他方法

第3章 標竿學習

  • 介紹
  • 可行性
  • 資料蒐集
  • 價値預測
  • 價値調整
  • 事例:癌症
    • 第1期標竿學習事例
    • 第2期標竿學習事例
    • 第3期標竿學習事例
    • 摘要

第4章 淨現値預測(eNPV)

  • 基本
  • 機會成本/時間的價値
    • NPV計算事例
  • 研究開發的失敗風險
  • 決策樹分析
  • eNPV摘要
  • 事例:PRI-123的價値
    • 輸入資料及預測
    • 財務報表模式
    • 更複雜的模式
    • PRI-123的二項式模式
  • eNPV模式更加完備
    • 感受性分析
    • 蒙地卡羅模擬
  • 附加合約

第5章 合約架構

  • 價值分配
  • 風險分擔
  • 合約内容
    • 訂金
    • 研究開發費用
    • 授權費
    • 里程碑
    • 權利金
    • 成本及利益分配
    • 股票
  • 事例:PRI-123合約的架構

第6章 技術價値評價

  • 給藥技術
    • 技術開發
    • 技術進步
    • 專利壽命延長
  • 藥品開發技術
  • 事例:PRI-123給藥技術進步價値評價

第7章 結論

附錄

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目錄

Essential insight into valuing projects and the need to extract maximum value from your licensing deals.

Overview

The valuation of a deal is the most challenging aspect in the deal negotiation. The Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals Report provides insight and solutions to the challenges faced by deal-makers in the biopharmaceutical industry when valuing projects at various development stages.

Key Benefits

  • This report empowers dealmakers with the information required to calculate value for drugs at all stages of development with tried and tested methods.
  • The report assists deal-makers to understand how to develop deal structures and agree terms that are acceptable to both sides.
  • It also helps dealmakers approach their next deal negotiation with confidence by outlining how to avoid the potential pitfalls in determining value for their projects.
  • In the appendix the report includes financial data for over 300 deals in excel spreadsheets sorted by stage of development, drug delivery technologies and option deals.

Contents

  • This report explains the principles of deal valuation and how to use reliable methods for valuing pharmaceutical projects.
  • It includes detailed explanations on how to arrive at approximate valuations using benchmarking techniques; methodologies are supplemented with case studies of real world deals.
  • The report also provides guidance on using expected net present value (eNPV) and decision tree analysis methods in valuation exercises.
  • The report presents a detailed review of deal components with example deal structures and information on structuring of agreements.
  • An overview of how to value drug discovery and drug delivery technologies is presented.
  • The report provides a robust set of deal benchmarking data by stage of development which can be used as valuable reference points.

Table of Contents

CHAPTER - 1

INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. DEALMAKING IN THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY
  • 1.2. UNDERSTANDING VALUE CREATION
  • 1.3. PURPOSE OF THE REPORT

    CHAPTER - 2

VALUATION METHODS

  • 2.1. INTEGRATED METHODOLOGIES
  • 2.2. WHY USE ENPV AND BENCHMARKING?
  • 2.3. OTHER METHODS
    • 2.3.1. Internal Rate of Return
    • 2.3.2. Payback
    • 2.3.3. Real Options

CHAPTER - 3

BENCHMARKING

  • 3.1. Introduction to Benchmarking
  • 3.2. FEASIBILITY
  • 3.3. DATA GATHERING
    • 3.3.1. Avoid the Benchmarking Pitfalls
  • 3.4. APPROXIMATE VALUATION
  • 3.5. REFINEMENT OF THE VALUATION
  • 3.6. EXAMPLE DEALS: CANCER
    • 3.6.1. Phase I Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.2. Phase II Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.3. Phase III Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.4. Summary

CHAPTER - 4

EXPECTED NET PRESENT VALUE

  • 4.1. THE BASICS
    • 4.1.1. Cash Flows
    • 4.1.2. Relevant Costs
    • 4.1.3. Real vs. Nominal Figures
  • 4.2. OPPORTUNITY COST/TIME VALUE
    • 4.2.1. Example NPV Calculation
  • 4.3. RISK OF R&D FAILURE
  • 4.4. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
    • 4.4.1. Example eNPV Calculation
  • 4.5. ENPV SUMMARY
  • 4.6. EXAMPLE: VALUATION OF PRI-123
    • 4.6.1. Input Data and Assumptions
    • 4.6.2. The Spreadsheet Model
    • 4.6.3. More Complex Models
    • 4.6.4. Binomial Model for PRI-123
  • 4.7. FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THE ENPV MODEL
    • 4.7.1. Sensitivity Analysis
    • 4.7.2. Monte-Carlo Simulation
  • 4.8. OPTION CONTRACTS - WHICH METHOD TO USE?

CHAPTER - 5

AGREEMENT STRUCTURE

  • 5.1. VALUE SPLIT
  • 5.2. RISK SHARING
  • 5.3. DEAL COMPONENTS
    • 5.3.1. Upfront Payments
    • 5.3.2. R&D Funding
    • 5.3.3. Licence Fees
    • 5.3.4. Milestones
    • 5.3.5. Royalties
    • 5.3.6. Shared Costs or Benefits
    • 5.3.7. Equity
  • 5.4. PREFERENCES (UTILITY)
  • 5.5. EXAMPLE: DEAL STRUCTURE FOR PRI-123

CHAPTER - 6

VALUATION OF TECHNOLOGIES

  • 6.1. DRUG DELIVERY TECHNOLOGY
    • 6.1.1. Enabling Technology
    • 6.1.2. Enhancing Technology
    • 6.1.3. Extension of Patent Life
  • 6.2. DRUG DISCOVERY TECHNOLOGY
  • 6.3. EXAMPLE: VALUATION OF DELIVERY ENHANCEMENT OF PRI-123

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

APPENDICES

  • A.1. EXAMPLE BENCHMARKING DEALS: CANCER
  • A.2. REFERENCE DEALS TABLES
    • A.2.1. DISCOVERY AND PRECLINICAL DEALS
    • A.2.2. PHASE I DEALS
    • A.2.3. PHASE II DEALS
    • A.2.4. PHASE III DEALS
    • A.2.5. REGISTERED DEALS
    • A.2.6. LAUNCHED DEALS
    • A.2.7. OPTION DEALS
    • A.2.8. DRUG DELIVERY DEALS

FIGURES

  • Figure 1: Total partnering activity in the pharmaceutical industry.
  • Figure 2: Mean upfront and headline value by year and development phase.
  • Figure 3: Integrated valuation methods.
  • Figure 4: Binomial lattice modelling of Brownian movement in value.
  • Figure 5: eNPV decision tree model with scenario analysis for commercial risk.
  • Figure 6: Ideal benchmarking deal cluster.
  • Figure 7: Non-ideal benchmarking cluster.
  • Figure 8: IMS PharmaDeals database search engine.
  • Figure 9: Example pharmaceutical deal valuation force field.
  • Figure 10: Attrition by phase and therapeutic area
  • Figure 11: Example decision tree.
  • Figure 12: Pharmaceutical product decision tree.
  • Figure 13: Example decision tree.
  • Figure 14: Monte-Carlo simulation for PRI-123.
  • Figure 15: The effect of time and risk on the value of deal components.
  • Figure 16: A rough guide to NPV split ratios.
  • Figure 17: Frequency of equity investment as financial component.
  • Figure 18: Enhanced revenues due to delivery technology.
  • Figure 19: Enhancement of patent life.
  • Figure 20: Drug discovery decision tree model.
  • Figure 21: Extended drug discovery decision tree model.
  • Figure 22: Drug discovery eNPV model.

TABLES

  • Table 1: Pros and cons of benchmarking and DCF-based methods.
  • Table 2: Benchmarking methodology overview.
  • Table 3: Sources of benchmarking information.
  • Table 4: Approximate benchmark valuation.
  • Table 5: Refined benchmark valuation.
  • Table 6: Phase I small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 7: Phase II small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 8: Phase III small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 9: Cost of capital (COC) for pharmaceutical firms.
  • Table 10: Example NPV calculation - part 1 Contribution.
  • Table 11: Example NPV calculation - part 2 NPV.
  • Table 12: Selected examples of data sources providing estimates for success and attrition in drug development.
  • Table 13: Example eNPV calculation.
  • Table 14: Cumulative probabilities.
  • Table 15: Example valuation - summary.
  • Table 16: eNPV spreadsheet valuation of PRI-123.
  • Table 17: Quarterly eNPV spreadsheet valuation of PRI-123.
  • Table 18: Valuation of PRI-123 using the binomial method.
  • Table 19: Sensitivity analysis of the PRI-123 model.
  • Table 20: PRI-123 deal structure and eNPV share.
  • Table 21: PRI-123 eNPV valuation and deal structure spreadsheet model. Deal valuation from licensee's perspective
  • Table 22: eNPV model for enhanced PRI-123 formulation.
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