「Next Billion」：低ARPU行動市場收益增加・成長策略 是由出版商Portio Research Limited在2007年10月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含107 PAGES 價格從美金2995起跳。
Abstract
Since the first mobile phones reached the hands of consumers at the end of the
1980s, it took approximately 15 years for the first 25 percent of the human
race to subscribe to mobile services, then the next 25 percent look set to
sign up in just 4 short years. By mid 2008 the world is forecast to cross the
highly significant 50 percent penetration mark. This detailed market study
looks at where the growth is set to come from after that. Who will be "the
next billion"? Who are they, where do they live and how much money will they
have to spend on mobile services? This in-depth market study will answer these
questions complete with detailed demographic analysis of the top growth
markets and the strategies network operators are using to penetrate those
populations.
This report has studied the so-called ' next billion' in detail and we have identified the following:
- They are actually 1.5 billion in number
- They will take the world from 50 percent penetration to 75 percent
penetration in just 4 years
- 65 percent of them live in Asia, but the 6 percent in North America are a
potential goldmine
- Almost 70 percent of them live in rural communities
We have studied the top 10 growth markets of the next 4 years and we have
identified that 9 out of 10 of those markets have one key defining factor in
common - they are all low income per-capita markets compared to the wealthy
nations that have made up the bulk of the first 3 billion mobile subscribers.
We look at these country markets in detail and identify the extent of the
urban and rural communities in these countries. We look in detail at the one
wealthy nation among the top 10 - the United States. This report explains how
the wealthiest nation in the world is forecast to be the third biggest growth
market of the next 4 years, and what that is worth in financial terms. The
report forecasts subscriber growth, ARPU to 2011 and service revenues from
2006 to 2011, as the US marches towards a USD 200 billion Dollar market.
The report analyzes what strategies are being used to penetrate low-ARPU rural
markets. As rural subscribers in India and Bangladesh head towards monthly
ARPU of USD 4 or USD 3 Dollars, can MNOs maintain margins? Are there cost
effective strategies for deploying mobile networks into sparsely populated
rural communities with such low returns forecast? Will the sheer size of the
market drive the economics forwards? We forecast that 5 of our top 10 growth
markets are in South Asia. We further forecast that these 5 big Asian growth
markets will add over 815 million new mobile subscribers over the next 4
years, equivalent to the entire population of the European Union, the United
States, Australia and New Zealand all added together! That' s 386 new mobile
subscribers every minute from now until the end of 2011, 24 hours per day, 365
days per year.
Understand these exciting growth opportunities and the billions of Dollars in
service revenues that will be generated. Analyze low-cost handset strategies,
network sharing business models, tariff structures and services tailored to
rural consumers, the opportunities for non-voice services, SMS, Internet
access and other VAS. All this and more is covered in detail in this essential
new market report.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Demographic Analysis: Defining the Next Billion, who they are and where they live
- China
- India
- United States of America
- Pakistan
- Nigeria
- Brazil
- Indonesia
- Bangladesh
- Mexico
- Iran
Business Models to Penetrate Low-Income Populations
- Introduction
- Case Study 1: America Movil
- Case Study 2: Telefonica Moviles
- Case Study 3: China Mobile
- Case Study 4: Smart Communications
- Case Study 5: Bharti Airtel
- Case Study 6: Rural Payphones
Low-Cost Handset Initiatives
- Overview
- Initiatives by Handset Vendors
- Initiatives by Chip-Set Vendors and other OEMs
- Initiatives by Mobile Operators
- Conclusion
Developments - Mobile Technology and Infrastructure
- Case Study 1: Nokia Siemens Networks Village Connection
- Case Study 2: Mobile Infrastructure Sharing
- Case Study 3: Alternative Sources of Power
- Case Study 4: Next Generation Mobile Base Stations
- Case Study 5: Low Frequency Spectrum
Worldwide Regulatory Scenario
- Regulatory Scenario - India
- Regulatory Scenario - Pakistan
- Regulatory Scenario - Nigeria
Summary and Conclusions
Appendices
- Glossary
- Portio Research Classifications
- Companies Mentioned in this Report
- About the Authors
- Also available from Portio Research Limited
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Evolution of Mobile Subscriber Base - Worldwide
- Figure 2: Geographical Distribution - Worldwide Mobile Penetration
(2003-2011)
- Figure 3: Worldwide Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 4: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Figure 5: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Figure 6: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Figure 7: Top 10 Countries - Expected Annual Service Revenues (In USD
Billion, 2011)
- Figure 8: Break-up of Net Subscriber Additions - Top 10 Markets
(2007-2011)
- Figure 9: Break-up of Service Revenues from Net Subscriber Additions (2011)
- Figure 10: China - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 11: China - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 12: India - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 13: India - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 14: US - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 15: US - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 16: Pakistan - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 17: Pakistan - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 18: Nigeria - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 19: Nigeria - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 20: Brazil - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 21: Brazil - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 22: Indonesia - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 23: Indonesia - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 24: Bangladesh - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 25: Bangladesh - Snapshot of Mobile Subscriber Base by 2011
- Figure 26: Mexico - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 27: Mexico - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 28: Iran - Mobile Subscribers (2006-2011)
- Figure 29: Iran - Snapshot of Estimated Mobile Subscriber Base (2011)
- Figure 30: Worldwide Handset Shipments
- Figure 31: Handset Shipments - Regional Break-up (2006)
- Figure 32: Expected Initial Cost of Getting Connected
- Figure 33: Usage of New and Second-hand Handsets in BOP Segment
- Figure 34: Comparison of Tax Rates in Emerging Markets
- Figure 35: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions
(2007-2011)
- Figure 36: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions
(2007-2011)
- Figure 37: Entry Level Handset Costs - Worldwide (1990-2010E)
List of Tables
- Table 1: Regional Mobile Subscribers (2003-2012)
- Table 2: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Table 3: Geographical Distribution - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Table 4: Asian "Big Cats" - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Table 5: Top 10 Countries - Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Table 6: Top 10 Countries - Expected Annual Service Revenues (In USD
Billion, 2011)
- Table 7: Socio-economic Levels in Mexico (2005)
- Table 8: Quarterly Handset Shipments Worldwide - 2006 (In Million)
- Table 9: Cell Radius of Different Frequency Waves
- Table 10: Asian Countries - Contribution from Urban and Rural Regions to
the Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011)
- Table 11: Estimated Penetration in Urban and Rural Regions - Asian
Markets (2011)
- Table 12: Forecast Monthly ARPU - Asian Markets (2011)
- Table 13: Top 10 Countries - Forecast Mobile Penetration and Blended ARPU
(2011)
- Table 14: Net Subscriber Additions (2007-2011) for Major Asian Growth
Markets
