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市場調查報告書

美國的分散式再生能源引進預測:太陽能光電發電、分散式風力發電、沼氣 2016-2025年

U.S. Distributed Renewables Deployment Forecast: Solar PV, Distributed Wind, and Biogas to Electricity Capacityand Revenue Forecasts 2016-2025

出版商 Navigant Research 商品編碼 359783
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 41 Pages; 47 Tables, Charts & Figures
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美國的分散式再生能源引進預測:太陽能光電發電、分散式風力發電、沼氣 2016-2025年 U.S. Distributed Renewables Deployment Forecast: Solar PV, Distributed Wind, and Biogas to Electricity Capacityand Revenue Forecasts 2016-2025
出版日期: 2016年06月13日 內容資訊: 英文 41 Pages; 47 Tables, Charts & Figures
簡介

本報告以美國的分散式再生能源市場為焦點,提供美國的PV的設置容量預測,分散式風力發電的設置容量預測,已設置的電容,支撐分散式再生能源的促進要素,主要10個分散式再生能源市場,及加州的分散式再生能源市場趨勢等相關彙整。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 資料預測的前提條件

  • 背景
  • 區分
  • 調查手法
  • 政策的前提條件
    • 聯邦稅額扣抵
    • 再生能源組合標準
    • 網路電表
  • 技術趨勢
    • 分散式太陽能光電發電
    • 分散式風力發電
    • 電力系統用沼氣
  • 主要的曲折點
    • ITC低
    • 網路電表的結構性變化
    • 太陽能光電發電接近市電平價
    • 低價格的NG (天然氣)

第3章 市場預測

  • 概要
  • 預測的前提條件
  • 預測:各技術
  • 預測:美國的各州
    • 加利福尼亞
    • 麻薩諸塞州
    • 亞利桑那
    • New Jersey
    • 紐約
    • 德克薩斯
    • 北卡羅來納
    • 馬里蘭
    • 科羅拉多
    • 夏威夷

第4章 縮寫、簡稱清單

第5章 目錄

第6章 圖表

第7章 調查範圍、來源、手法、筆記

目錄
Product Code: DB-DRDF-16

Solar PV, Distributed Wind, and Biogas to Electricity Capacity and Revenue Forecasts: 2016-2025

The deployment of distributed renewables in the United States has accelerated in the last decade due to improvements in regulatory support policies and cost reductions in the related technologies. Distributed renewables technologies, including solar PV, distributed wind, and biogas, have unique characteristics that can act as both generation and/or load control on the grid. Yet, each technology represents a dynamic resource that is challenging the prevailing business models and standard operating procedures in the industry.

Despite the collapse of installed costs, the deployment of distributed renewables in the United States is still affected by federal, state, and local policies. Policies like tax credits that help reduce the upfront cost of the investment and renewables mandates that increase the value of the electricity produced by renewable sources will likely be phased out. Other policies like net metering that enable end users to send electricity back to the grid and receive a credit on their electric bill may be altered to ensure that they reflect the true value of distributed renewables. According to Navigant Research, the United States is expected to deploy 77.3 GW of distributed renewables between 2016 and 2025, with the majority of the capacity driven by solar installations.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the U.S. market for distributed renewables, with a focus on solar PV, distributed wind, and biogas in the top 10 markets. The study examines the market issues, including policy and technology trends, related to distributed renewables in the United States. Forecasts by U.S. state for the three technologies and installation types for solar PV (residential, commercial, and utility) extend through 2025. Data on installers, financing types, and module manufacturers is provided for the distributed solar market in California. The report also examines the key inflection points, as well as the cost trends, business models, and implications for grid integration, related to distributed renewables in the United States.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • How much solar PV capacity will be installed in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • How much distributed wind capacity will be installed in the in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • How much biogas to electricity capacity will be installed in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • What are the drivers behind distributed renewables deployments in the United States?
  • What are the top 10 markets for distributed renewables in the United States?
  • Who are the top 10 distributed renewables installers and manufacturers in California?

Who needs this report?

  • Solar PV manufacturers and equipment providers
  • Distributed wind turbine manufacturers
  • Biogas plant companies and suppliers
  • Electric utilities
  • Distributed renewables project developers
  • U.S. state regulatory agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Overview
  • 1.2. Market Trends
  • 1.3. Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

  • 2.1. Background
  • 2.2. Segmentation
  • 2.3. Methodology
  • 2.4. Policy Assumptions
    • 2.4.1. Federal Tax Credits
    • 2.4.2. Renewable Portfolio Standards
    • 2.4.3. Net Metering
  • 2.5. Technology Trends
    • 2.5.1. Distributed Solar PV
    • 2.5.2. Distributed Wind
    • 2.5.3. Biogas to Electricity Systems
  • 2.6. Key Inflection Points
    • 2.6.1. ITC Steps Down
    • 2.6.2. Structural Changes to Net Metering
    • 2.6.3. Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity
    • 2.6.4. Low-Cost NG

3. Market Forecasts

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Forecast Assumptions
  • 3.3. Forecast by Technology
  • 3.4. Forecasts by U.S. State
    • 3.4.1. California
    • 3.4.2. Massachusetts
    • 3.4.3. Arizona
    • 3.4.4. New Jersey
    • 3.4.5. New York
    • 3.4.6. Texas
    • 3.4.7. North Carolina
    • 3.4.8. Maryland
    • 3.4.9. Colorado
    • 3.4.10. Hawaii
  • 3.5. Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Distributed Renewables Installed Price by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments by Installation Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Revenue by Installation Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments Market Share by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, California: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by County, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by Installer, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by Module Manufacturer, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Massachusetts: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Arizona: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, New Jersey: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, New York: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Texas: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, North Carolina: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Maryland: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Colorado: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Hawaii: 2016-2025
  • States with Net Metering Policies in Place, United States: 2016

List of Tables

  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by State and Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Revenue by State and Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Solar Deployments by State and Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Solar PV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Solar Revenue by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Revenue by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by County and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Installer and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Financing Method and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Module Manufacturer and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Solar Deployments by County, California: 1996-2015
  • Annual Distributed Wind Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Wind Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Distributed Wind Installed Capacity Cost (Non-Weighted), United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Wind Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Wind Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Biogas Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Biogas Electricity Deployments, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Biogas Electricity Installed Price (Non-Weighted), United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Biogas Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Biogas Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
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