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市場調查報告書

分散型太陽光發電：需求牽引因子與障礙・技術上的課題・競爭環境・世界市場預測

Distributed Solar Energy Generation: Demand Drivers and Barriers, Technology Issues, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts

出版商 Pike Research
出版日期 2011年10月 商品編碼 219613
內容資訊 英文 73 Pages
價格
US $ 2800 PDF by E-mail (Basic License)
US $ 4200 PDF by E-mail (Enterprise License)


分散型太陽光發電：需求牽引因子與障礙・技術上的課題・競爭環境・世界市場預測 是由出版商Pike Research在2011年10月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含73 Pages 價格從美金2800起跳。

簡介

本報告書為全球分散型太陽光發電市場的現狀與前景之相關調査分析、太陽PV市場的主要動向、成長牽引因子與課題、相關政策・獎勵計劃・規格・認証、PV系統技術種類與概要、主要應用、各地區的主要動向、市場成長預測（∼2015年）、PV製造業者競爭環境等整理，概述如下。

第1章 總綱

  • 略歷
  • 小規模市場中的大幅成長
  • RDEG市場的成長：2009-2015年
  • 太陽PV的主要成長牽引因子3項
  • 太陽PV產業
  • 太陽PV產業新動向

第2章 市場

  • 市場的定義
  • 分散型太陽能發電是甚麼
  • 太陽能發電系統
  • 太陽PV市場的現狀・主要動向
    • 分散型太陽能發電：公共部門・政策面的集中型有勝出之勢
    • 緊縮政策：把獎勵轉到小規模分散型系統
    • 分散型發電的大構想
    • 分散型太陽PV：價格下降與收益性
  • 產業成長牽引因子
    • 全球再生能源發電的動向
    • 法規體制上的義務
    • 金錢的獎勵・公共制度
      • 固定價格交易制度
      • 助成金
      • 相互接續・認可規格
      • 貸款計畫
      • 網路統記政策
      • 資產稅的獎勵
      • 公益基金
      • 回贈計劃
      • 再生能源組合基準
      • 銷售量稅獎勵
      • 再生能源認証
    • 資產的持有
    • 既存技術之改善
    • 新技術的出現
    • 微電網
    • 其他牽引因子
  • 實裝上的課題
    • 與電網的相互接續
    • 電網的統合與安全性
    • 規格・認可

第3章 技術

  • PV系統
    • 經緯
    • 基本原理
      • PV單元類型
      • 結晶
      • 薄膜
    • 優勢・劣勢
    • 成本
      • 模組成本
      • 規模的經濟
      • 導入成本
      • 低成本多晶矽
    • 效率
    • 信頼性
    • 擴張性
    • 可利用性
  • 電網接續・電網非接續
  • 分散型太陽PV應用
    • 個人宅
    • 商用・零售
    • 政府・各種機關
    • 農場
    • 通信用一次・二次電源
    • 海運・U遙控監測・保全
    • 混合動力系統
    • 社群計畫

第4章 需求牽引因子

  • 先進國 vs 新興國
  • 北美
  • 歐洲
  • 亞太地區
  • 其他地區
  • 傳統型能源源
  • 電費
  • 太陽PV與傳統型能源來源成本/kWh
  • 集中型工廠的認可與場地選定

第5章 市場預測

  • 分散型PV系統：各地區

第6章 競爭環境

第7章 企業總覽

第8章 用語等

圖表

目錄

Abstract

image1

Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was added in more than 100 countries during 2010. The distributed solar PV market is dominated by residential and commercial grid-connected PV systems and is concentrated in regions with favorable financial incentives, such as premium feed-in tariffs (FITs) including Germany, Italy, France, the Czech Republic, Japan, the United States (led by California), and Canada (led by Ontario). Europe will continue to be the largest market for distributed solar PV during this forecast period, but China and India's growing economies and high percentages of population without access to electricity represent large market opportunities.

Consumer demand for distributed systems is growing as the cost of PV modules has continued its steady descent. Combined with innovative financing and leasing options, third-party and utility ownership models, and highly-effective feed-in tariff programs, solar PV is expanding faster than most expected. Today's solar PV market is all about cost, which is good for consumers and installers, but brutal for manufacturers. Costs are expected to continue their rapid decline as Chinese crystalline silicon manufacturers gain market share and thin-film increases in efficiency. Pike Research forecasts almost $600 billion in revenues throughout the distributed solar PV value chain during the period between 2011 and 2015.

This Pike Research report analyzes the current status of, along with the future outlook for, the global market for distributed solar photovoltaics. The study includes an assessment of global trends, cost analysis, installation and pricing forecasts, market sizing, and an examination of the competitive landscape of solar PV manufacturers.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • Which countries will lead in distributed solar PV development over the next four years - and why?
  • How does distributed solar PV compare against other renewable distributed energy generation technologies?
  • What are the most common applications of distributed solar PV systems?
  • What is the current status and outlook for distributed solar PV financial incentives?
  • How much does it cost to install distributed solar PV in each country?
  • Who are the solar PV manufacturer market leaders and where are they working?
  • How is technological innovation playing a role in the development of the distributed solar PV industry?
  • What key barriers and opportunities will shape the distributed solar PV market?
  • How much capital will be invested in total distributed solar PV installations by 2015?

Who needs this report?

  • Solar PV module and component manufacturers
  • Solar PV industry service providers
  • Renewable energy technology suppliers
  • Renewable energy project developers
  • Utilities
  • Economic development agencies
  • Government agencies & regulators
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 A Brief History
  • 1.2 Big Growth in Small Markets
  • 1.3 RDEG Market Growth: 2009-2015
  • 1.4 The Three Primary Growth Drivers for Solar PV
  • 1.5 The Solar PV Industry
  • 1.6 Emerging Trends in Solar PV

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1 Defining the Market
  • 2.2 What Is Distributed Solar Generation?
  • 2.3 Solar Power Systems
  • 2.4 The Status of the Solar PV Market & Key Trends
    • 2.4.1 Distributed Solar Gains Public & Political Traction vs. Centralized Solar
    • 2.4.2 Austerity Measures Shift Incentives toward Smaller Distributed Systems
    • 2.4.3 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big
    • 2.4.4 Can Distributed Solar PV Continue its Price Declines and still be Profitable?
  • 2.5 Industry Growth Drivers
    • 2.5.1 Global Renewable Energy Generation Trends
    • 2.5.2 Legislative and Regulatory Mandates
    • 2.5.3 Financial Incentives and Public Policies
      • 2.5.3.1 Feed-in Tariffs
      • 2.5.3.2 Grants
      • 2.5.3.3 Interconnection and Permitting Standards
      • 2.5.3.4 Loan Programs
      • 2.5.3.5 Net Metering Policies
      • 2.5.3.6 Property Tax Incentives
      • 2.5.3.7 Public Benefit Funds
      • 2.5.3.8 Rebate Programs
      • 2.5.3.9 Renewable Portfolio Standards
      • 2.5.3.10 Sales Tax Incentives
      • 2.5.3.11 Renewable Energy Certificates
    • 2.5.4 Asset Ownership
    • 2.5.5 Improvements to Existing Technologies
      • 2.5.5.1 Photovoltaic Technology Innovations
    • 2.5.6 Emergence of New Technologies
    • 2.5.7 Microgrids
    • 2.5.8 Other Drivers
      • 2.5.8.1 Push for Energy Independence and Energy Security
      • 2.5.8.2 Benefits of Green Marketing
      • 2.5.8.3 World Demand and Pricing of Fossil Fuels
  • 2.6 Implementation Issues
    • 2.6.1 Grid Interconnection
    • 2.6.2 Grid Integrity and Safety
    • 2.6.3 Standards and Permitting

3. Technology Issues

  • 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems
    • 3.1.1 History
    • 3.1.2 Basic Principles
      • 3.1.2.1 PV Cell Types
      • 3.1.2.2 Crystalline
      • 3.1.2.3 Thin-Film
    • 3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
    • 3.1.4 Costs
      • 3.1.4.1 Module Costs
      • 3.1.4.2 Economies of Scale
      • 3.1.4.3 Installed Costs
      • 3.1.4.4 Low-Cost Polysilicon
    • 3.1.5 Efficiency
    • 3.1.6 Reliability
    • 3.1.7 Scalability
    • 3.1.8 Availability
  • 3.2 Grid-Tied vs. Off-Grid Installations
  • 3.3 Distributed Solar PV Applications
    • 3.3.1 Residential
    • 3.3.2 Commercial/Retail
    • 3.3.3 Government and Institutions
    • 3.3.4 Farms
    • 3.3.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power
    • 3.3.6 Marine, Remote Monitoring, and Security
    • 3.3.7 Hybrid Systems
    • 3.3.8 Community Projects
      • 3.3.8.1 Solar Gardens and Solar Farms

4. Demand Drivers

  • 4.1 Developed Nations vs. Developing Nations
  • 4.2 North America
    • 4.2.1 United States
      • 4.2.1.1 Federal Level
      • 4.2.1.2 State Level
    • 4.2.2 Canada
    • 4.2.3 Mexico
  • 4.3 Europe
    • 4.3.1 Germany
    • 4.3.2 Spain
    • 4.3.3 Italy
    • 4.3.4 United Kingdom
    • 4.3.5 France
    • 4.3.6 European Union
    • 4.3.7 Rest of Europe
  • 4.4 Asia Pacific
    • 4.4.1 China
    • 4.4.2 Japan
    • 4.4.3 South Korea
    • 4.4.4 Australia
    • 4.4.5 India
  • 4.5 Rest of World
    • 4.5.1 Africa
    • 4.5.2 Middle East
  • 4.6 Conventional Energy Sources
    • 4.6.1 Fuel Supply and Demand
  • 4.7 Electricity Rates
  • 4.8 Cost/kWh: Solar PV vs. Conventional Sources
  • 4.9 Permitting and Siting Centralized Plants

5. Market Forecasts

  • 5.1 Distributed Photovoltaic Systems
    • 5.1.1 Americas
      • 5.1.1.1 United States
        • 5.1.1.1.1. California
    • 5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.1.3 Europe
      • 5.1.3.1 Established Markets
      • 5.1.3.2 Emerging Markets
    • 5.1.4 Asia Pacific
    • 5.1.5 Rest of World

6. Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Solar PV Module/Cell Manufacturers
  • 6.2 Chinese & Taiwanese Manufacturers
  • 6.3 Japanese Manufacturers
  • 6.4 American Manufacturers
  • 6.5 European Manufacturers

7. Company Directory

8. Acronym and Abbreviation List

9. Table of Contents

10. Table of Charts and Figures

11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • PV Installation Costs, World Markets Price Index: 2009-2015
  • Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Americas: 2009-2015
  • Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Europe: 2009-2015
  • Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Asia Pacific: 2009-2015
  • Top Solar PV Markets (Distributed and Non-Distributed, GW), World Market: 2010
  • Cumulative Grid-Connected Solar PV Installations, Top 10 U.S. States: 2007-2010
  • Comparing Current Status of Distributed Solar PV and Centralized Solar Projects in California
  • Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States and Germany ($/Peak W): 2010
  • Forecasted Energy Use by Fuel Type: 1990-2035
  • EIA Forecasts of Net Electricity Generation Fuels: 2007-2035
  • Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region and Technology: 2009
  • Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production: 2010
  • Photovoltaic Cells
  • Commercial Rooftop Solar PV System Prices, Various Technologies, U.S. Markets: 2010
  • Annual Installed Grid-Connected PV Capacity by Sector, U.S. Markets: 2001-2010
  • Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology
  • Renewable Portfolio Standards by State
  • Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Carve-Outs by State
  • Third-Party Solar Purchase Power Agreements
  • Average Household Electricity Rates, Select Countries: 2009
  • Average Industrial Electricity Rates, Select Countries: 2009
  • Comparative Cost of New Generation by Source: 2008
  • Market Shares of Top 15 Solar PV Cell Manufacturers: 2010
  • Top 15 Solar PV Cell Manufacturers, by Technology: 2010

List of Tables

  • Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison
  • PV Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Renewable Energy Policies and Incentives Summary, World Markets
  • Estimated Annual Growth of Distributed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2010-2015
  • Distributed PV Global Annual Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2009-2015
  • Distributed System Installed Price, World Markets: 2009-2015
  • Estimated Distributed PV Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2009-2015

Press Release

預測全球分散型太陽能發電系統市場在2015年之前將超過1,500億美元

2011年11月07日

Global Information, Inc.已開始銷售Pike Research所發行的報告書「Distributed Solar Energy Generation: Demand Drivers and Barriers, Technology Issues, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts (分散型太陽光發電：需求牽引因子與障礙・技術上的課題・競爭環境・世界市場預測)」

預測在小型可再生能源系統輔助公共事業規模的配置增加中，分散型太陽能發電系統作為可再生分散型的能源發電設備，今後亦會繼續成為主流。

2010年，100個以上國家追加了太陽能發電的發電能力。

分散型太陽能發電市場的大半都為住宅及商業設施用的系統聯繫PV系統。太陽能發電設備的設置費用繼續降低，終端用戶的需求上升已成為其背景。

本報告書預測，今後各種市況亦牽引著全球的分散型太陽能市場。2010年約為660億美元的市場規模，預估之後以複合年成長率18％擴大，2015年之前達到1,540億美元以上。

預估此期間分散型太陽能發電的設備容量將從9.5GW增加到15GW以上。

上級分析家Peter Asmus述說：「分散型太陽能發電系統的需求，隨著個人及商業用一起上升。因為PV組件的價格持續下跌。」。「依據創新的資金籌措和租約選擇，第三者機關和公共事業的所有模式，以及組合非常有效的饋電躉購機制(Feed-in Tariff, FIT)，太陽能發電的普及之速超過預想。」

此系統的需求集中在德國、意大利、法國、捷克共和國、美國（加利福尼亞主導）及加拿大（安大略主導）等導入獎勵策略的地區。

今後7年，歐洲將持續成為分散型太陽能發電的最大市場。

然因經濟成長中的中國及印度，人口眾多導致無法穩定供給電力，故預測有很大的市場機會。

「太陽能發電市場受成本大幅限制。價格降低對用戶是好事，對製造商卻是嚴苛的狀況。隨著中國的結晶矽製造商獲得市占率與提高薄膜技術的效率性，將導致成本迅速持續下降。」

本報告書分析全球分散型太陽能發電市場、市場動向、成本分析、發電設備的設置、價格的預測、市場規模、以及提供有關PV製造商的競爭狀況等。
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