輕淨科技產業的稀土金屬：使用於風力發電機、電動車、燃料電池、高能源效率照明市場的稀土金屬的供需動向、風險評估、價格情境以及市場預測

China' s monopoly over the global rare earth metals market has come under increased international scrutiny following recent efforts on the part of the Chinese government aimed at consolidating its domestic rare earth metal industry. Accounting for 97% of worldwide rare earth metal production, China' s new export quotas, introduced in July 2010, have seen prices for rare earths skyrocket. As a result, rare earth metals have been identified as a troubling area of potential risk for a number of prominent clean energy technologies including wind turbines, electric vehicles, fuel cells, and energy efficient lighting.

Although positive initiatives offer the potential for market alleviation in the long term, the short term picture for the clean technology will be characterized by a significant supply risk brought about by China' s strict new export quotas. This will almost certainly come to influence the adoption and commercialization of certain technologies across the cleantech industry. It is therefore becoming increasingly important for respective clean technology manufacturers to assess their rare earth needs and explore options for reducing dependence. Up to this point, however, there has been very little evidence of this kind of assessment despite the increased market prices for critical rare earth metals.

This Pike Research report provides a comprehensive analysis of supply and demand dynamics, assessment of risk, and pricing scenarios for the utilization of rare earth metals in cleantech applications. The study includes profiles of key industry players and their strategies to address the need for rare earth metals in the cleantech industry. Detailed demand forecasts, segmented by rare earth metal, application, and world region, are provided through 2017.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What is the rare earth material intensity for each respective application?
• What is the level of dependence of the clean technology industry on rare earths?
• What is the potential risk of each application to rare earth metal pricing?
• What is the potential risk to each regional clean technology economy?
• What new technologies are helping to limit dependence on rare earth metals?

Who needs this report?

• Metal alloy manufacturers
• Clean technology companies
• Specialist mining companies
• Investor community
• Government agencies
• Industry associations

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Introduction

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Scope
• 2.3 Rare Earth Metals Defined
• 2.4 Properties
• 2.5 Applications
  • 2.5.1 Clean Energy Applications
• 2.6 Demand
• 2.7 Global Rare Earth Supply
• 2.8 Summary

3. Technology Issues

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Permanent Magnet Wind Generators
  • 3.2.1 Market Share
    • 3.2.1.1 Material Content
• 3.3 Electric Vehicles
  • 3.3.1 Market Share
    • 3.3.1.1 NiMH Batteries in Electric Drive Vehicles
    • 3.3.1.2 Permanent Magnets in Electric Drive Vehicles
    • 3.3.1.3 Material Content
      • 3.3.1.3.1 Batteries in Electric Drive Vehicles
      • 3.3.1.3.2 Permenant Magnets in Electric Drive Vehicles
• 3.4 Phosphors and Lighting
  • 3.4.1 Market Share
  • 3.4.2 Material Content
• 3.5 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
  • 3.5.1 Market Share
  • 3.5.2 Material Content
• 3.6 Alternative Technologies
  • 3.6.1 Electrified Vehicles
  • 3.6.2 Wind Turbines
• 3.7 End-of-Life Recovery of Rare Earth Metals
  • 3.7.1 Batteries
  • 3.7.2 Magnets
  • 3.7.3 Recent Rare Earth Recycling Developments

4. Key Industry Players

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Molycorp Minerals
• 4.3 Avalon
• 4.4 Lynas Corporation
• 4.5 Great Western Minerals Group Limited

5. Market Forecasts

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 REM Demand by Application
  • 5.2.1 Future Demand for Rare Earth Metals for the Wind Energy Industry
  • 5.2.2 Future Demand for Rare Earth Metals for Electrified Vehicles
    • 5.2.2.1 Future Demand for Rare Earth Metals in NiMH Batteries in HEVs
    • 5.2.2.2 Future Demand for REMs for Permanent Magnets for Electrified Vehicles
  • 5.2.3 Future Demand for Rare Earth Metals in Lighting Phosphors
  • 5.2.4 Future Demand for Rare Earth Metals in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
  • 5.2.5 Total REM Demand from the Global Cleantech Industry
• 5.3 Regional Demand
  • 5.3.1 North America
  • 5.3.2 Latin Amercia
  • 5.3.3 Europe
  • 5.3.4 Asia Pacific
  • 5.3.5 Rest of the World
  • 5.3.6 Total Rare Earth Demand
• 5.4 Price Scenarios
  • 5.4.1 Low Price Scenario
    • 5.4.1.1 Wind Turbines
      • 5.4.1.1.1 Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbines
    • 5.4.1.2 Electric Vehicles
      • 5.4.1.2.1 Permenant Magnets for Electric Vehicles
      • 5.4.1.2.2 NiMH Batteries for HEVs
    • 5.4.1.3 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
    • 5.4.1.4 Lighting Phosphors
  • 5.4.2 High Price Scenario
    • 5.4.2.1 Wind Turbines
      • 5.4.2.1.1 Perment Magnet for Wind Turbines
    • 5.4.2.2 Electric Vehicles
      • 5.4.2.2.1 Perment Magnets
      • 5.4.2.2.2 NiMH Batteries for HEVs
    • 5.4.2.3 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
    • 5.4.2.4 High-Efficiency Lighting Phosphors
  • 5.4.3 Discussion: Price Scenarios
• 5.5 Discussion

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Rare Earth Metals Demand for the Cleantech Industry, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Share of Rare Earth Metals Demand by Region, World Markets: 2017
• China' s Rare Earth Metals Export Quota: 2005-2010
• Wind Turbine Unit Shipments, World Markets: 2007-2017
• Electrified Vehicle Unit Shipments, World Markets: 2010-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for DDPM Wind Generators, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for Electrified Vehicles, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for NiMH Batteries in HEVs, World Markets: 2010-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for PM Motors, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for High-Efficiency Lighting Phosphors, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand for the Cleantech Industry, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand by Application, North America: 2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand by Application, Latin America: 2017
• Rare Earth Demand by Application, Europe: 2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand by Application, Asia Pacific: 2017
• Rare Earth Metals Demand by Application, Rest of the World: 2017
• Total Rare Earth Metals Demand by Region, World Markets: 2017
• Share of Rare Earth Metals Demand by Region, World Markets: 2017
• Low Price Scenario, Rare Earth Metal Costs by Application: 2017
• High Price Scenario, Rare Earth Metal Costs by Application: 2017
• Rare Earth Metal Usage by Industry
• Light Rare Earth Metals Price History
• Heavy Rare Earth Metals Price History
• World Rare Earth Metals Production: 2009-2010

List of Tables

• China' s Rare Earth Metals Export Quotas: 2005-2010
• The Rare Earth Elements
• Individual Rare Earth Applications
• Materials in the Clean Energy Technologies and Components
• Material Intensity for NiMH Batteries
• Rare Earth Demand Calculations for Lighting Phosphors in 2010
• The Rare Earth Content of SOFC
• Rare Earth Metals Low Price Scenario
• Rare Earth Metals High Price Scenario
• Rare Earth Metals Cost Scenarios by Application: 2017