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市場調查報告書

發電的未來成本:與資本成本、電力的水平化成本、經濟性、傳統和再生能源技術的平衡

The Future Cost of Power Generation: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity, Power Economics and the Balance Between Conventional and Renewable Technologies

出版商 Power Generation Research 商品編碼 316011
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 123 Pages; 41 Tables & 41 Figures
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發電的未來成本:與資本成本、電力的水平化成本、經濟性、傳統和再生能源技術的平衡 The Future Cost of Power Generation: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity, Power Economics and the Balance Between Conventional and Renewable Technologies
出版日期: 2014年10月10日 內容資訊: 英文 123 Pages; 41 Tables & 41 Figures
簡介

再生能源削減大氣中的碳排放,其過程對抗石化燃料技術的優勢,發電、供給產業面臨空前的變化。透過電網運用,新的資源和電網系統結構片斷化,分散式發電達成成長。

本報告提供發電的未來成本相關研究、資本成本、電力的水平化成本、經濟性、傳統和跟再生能源技術的平衡相關驗證等有系統的資訊。

第1章 電力、燃料成本趨勢:過去與未來

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 全球發電
  • 燃料成本
  • 燃料成本的變動和風險
  • 電力成本的轉變
  • 零售價格和分散式發電

第2章 發電技術的資本成本

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 發電量的要素
  • 商品價格和全球市場
  • 前置作業時間
  • 資本成本
  • 太陽能發電的成本
  • 資本成本趨勢
  • 資本成本的地區差距

第3章 電力的未來成本:傳統、核能、再生能源技術的水平化發電成本

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 能源的水平化成本
  • 電力的水平化成本
  • 水平化成本趨勢
  • 水平化成本的地區差距
  • 津貼及其他張力

第4章 全球發電量和電力成本:技術的成長趨勢與預測

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 全球發電量與生產層級
  • 傳統發電角色的變化
  • 再生能源成長
  • 核能相關討論
  • 天然氣的發展
  • 未來世代的成本
  • 國際金融
  • 未來預測
  • 詞彙表

圖表

目錄
Product Code: PGREleCosOct14

The cost of natural gas to utilities will necessarily be higher than the spot market price. Table 7 provides an idea of how they compare with the cost of natural gas for US utilities as compiled by the US EIA. The figures cover a shorter period of time than Table 6 and show somewhat less volatility but the prices still reach $8.67/GJ in 2008 before falling away as the effect of shale gas on market prices began to be felt. In 2012 the average utility price for natural gas in the USA was $3.52/GJ in 2013 it was $4.34/GJ. In 2014 the price rose again to $5.47/GJ.

Figure 7: Average annual cost of natural gas to
US utilities (2003 - 2014) ($/GJ), 2014

European gas prices are generally higher than those in the USA but not as high as Japanese LNG prices. These peaked in 2008 too, then fell away before starting to climb again. The average price of imported German natural gas in 2013 was $10.16/GJ

Executive summary

Chapter 1 - Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future

The power generation and supply industries are facing unparalleled changes as renewable generating technologies are promoted to reduce atmospheric carbon emissions, challenging the dominance of fossil fuel based technologies in the process. Grid operation is beginning to change to accommodate these new resources and the structure of grid systems is beginning to fragment as distributed generation grows. Meanwhile a revolution in oil and gas production in the USA is having ramifications for gas and coal costs that has already spread to other regions. Even so, fossil fuel generation, primarily based on coal, still dominates global generation. However this is much more pronounced in the developing world than in the developed where renewable generation is growing faster than other types. The Asia-Pacific region now has the largest global electricity production, followed by Europe and then North America. Global fuel prices have been rising everywhere during the past decade although shale oil and gas has led to a fall in gas prices in the USA in the past two years. In most regions coal is the cheapest fuel if it is available. Electricity costs have followed or exceeded fuel prices in their rises and domestic consumers have been penalized more than other groups in recent years, suggesting that this group is being unfairly treated in a market-driven electricity sector.

Chapter 2 - The capital cost of power generation technologies

The capital cost of a power plant is, along with the cost of fuel, one of the key determinants of the cost of electricity. Capital cost trends are therefore one of the most important indicators of the changing balance between different technologies. For renewable technologies the capital cost is the main cost determinant since there is no fuel cost. Renewable plants generally have lower capacity factors than conventional and nuclear plants and this must also be taken into account when assessing overall economic performance. The cheapest type of power plant from a capital cost perspective is a gas turbine based station. The gas turbine is a globally traded commodity and price competition is fierce. Best of all is a combined cycle plant which is both cheap and highly efficient. A typical pulverised coal fired plant will cost almost twice as much as the combined cycle plant. Adding carbon capture and storage pushes the prices of both up but adds relatively more to the cost of the combined cycle plant than it does to the coal plant. Of the main renewable technologies, hydropower and onshore wind are more expensive than a gas turbine plant but cheaper than a coal plant. Solar photovoltaic costs are higher than either fossil fuel based technology although costs are falling rapidly. Solar thermal generation is more costly still. All these costs vary regionally depending on local labour costs and the need to import sophisticated components and this can affect the balance between technologies.

Chapter 3 - The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies

In order to identify the best technology for a given power development, one of the key determining factors will be the cost of electricity from the plant. To determine the future cost of power an economic model called the levelized cost of electricity model is used. When this modelling is carried out the cheapest source of power in the USA is a combined cycle power plant burning natural gas. However elsewhere nuclear and even coal-fired generation can theoretically be more cost effective. Of the main renewable technologies, hydropower can be cost effective in many parts of the world although opportunities in the developed world are scarce. Wind and solar generation are becoming increasingly competitive too and may already have reached parity in some situations. Adding carbon capture and storage to a fossil fuel power plant can push the cost of electricity from such facilities above that from the main renewable generation technologies. Meanwhile short term predictions for future costs show all the main renewable technology costs falling relative to conventional sources. There are sharp variations in the cost of electricity from plants in different regions of the world. These reflect both differing market conditions and in some cases the effects of subsidies.

Chapter 4 - Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects

The production of electricity will double, globally over the next thirty years. Much of this growth will take place in the developing world but there will be some increase in capacity within the developed world too. Trends differ between the two groups however with fossil fuel production continuing to grow in the developing world while across the developed world there is a more pronounced shift towards renewable generation. In both regions, however, natural gas will become increasingly popular for power generation too and this could accelerate if oil and gas from shale deposits is exploited in regions other than the USA. Meanwhile most of the growth in coal-based generation will be found in China and India. How fast renewable generation will increase depends on a range of factors and predictions differ from a doubling of capacity by 2030 to an increase of more than ten times. The shift towards renewables is already beginning to change the role of conventional power plants such as combined cycle facilities which will have to offer grid support roles in the future. At the same time predictions of future electricity costs show costs from the main renewable sources falling relative to conventional generation sources. More global financial investment is now flowing into renewable generation than into conventional generation. Whether this will continue and how overall investment will hold up may depend on developments in developing world countries that have profited from the global crisis but may now be starting to suffer as markets elsewhere show signs of recovery.

Table of Contents

About the author

  • Disclaimer
  • Note about authors and sources

Table of contents

Table of tables

Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1 - Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future
  • Chapter 2 - The capital cost of power generation technologies
  • Chapter 3 - The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies
  • Chapter 4 - Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects

Chapter 1 - Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Global power generation
  • Fuel costs
  • Fuel cost volatility and risk
  • The historical cost of electricity
  • Retail prices and distributed generation

Chapter 2 - The capital cost of electricity generating technologies

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Capacity factor
  • Commodity prices and world markets
  • Lead times
  • Capital costs
  • Solar photovoltaic costs
  • Capital cost trends
  • Regional variations in capital costs

Chapter 3 - The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • The levelized cost of energy
  • Levelized costs of electricity
  • Levelized cost trends
  • Regional variation in levelized cost
  • Subsidies and other distortions

Chapter 4 - Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Global capacity and production levels
  • A changing role for conventional generation
  • Renewable growth
  • The nuclear debate
  • Natural gas developments
  • Future generation costs
  • Global finance
  • Future outlook
  • List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Global power generation 1985 - 2013 (TWh), 2014
  • Table 2: Global electricity production by source in 2012 (TWh), 2014
  • Table 3: Global electricity production by region in 2013 (TWh), 2014
  • Table 4: Cost of fossil fuels for power generation ($/GJ and US standard units) for 2012, 2014
  • Table 5: Average spot price for crude oil 1990 - 2013 ($/bbl), 2014
  • Table 6: The average cost of natural gas 1990 - 2013 ($/GJ), 2014
  • Table 7: Average annual cost of natural gas to US utilities (2003 - 2014) ($/GJ), 2014
  • Table 8: Annual cost of steam coal 1992 - 2013 (4/GJ), 2014
  • Table 9: Annual cost of coal to US utilities 2004 - 2014 ($/tonne), 2014
  • Table 10: US retail electricity costs 2003 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 11: Average retail electricity prices within the European Union 2007 - 2013 ($/€), 2014
  • Table 12: Japanese retail electricity costs 2008 2012 (Yen/MWh), 2014
  • Table 13: Typical capacity factors for the main power generating technologies (%), 2014
  • Table 14: New power plants capital costs in the US in 2013 ($/kW), 2014
  • Table 15: Lazard capital cost estimates for generating technologies ($/kW), 2013
  • Table 16: UK capital costs for low-carbon generating technologies (£/kW), 2013
  • Table 17: European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Table 18: US generating technology capital cost trends 2000 - 2013 ($/kW), 2014
  • Table 19: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Table 20: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Table 21: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Table 22: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Table 23: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2019 (2011 $/MWh), 2014
  • Table 24: Lazard levelized cost of electricity in the USA in 2013 ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 25: UK levelized costs for plants entering service in 2019 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 26: US EIA levelized cost of electricity trends 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Table 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Table 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Table 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Table 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
  • Table 32: Total global renewable capacities 2013 (GW), 2014
  • Table 33: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Table 34: Renewable growth rates 2009 - 2013 (%), 2014
  • Table 35: Predicted US gas prices, 2012 - 2040 ($/GJ), 2014
  • Table 36: Predicted US coal prices 2012 - 2040 ($/tonne), 2014
  • Table 37: US levelized generation costs in 2019 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 38: Projected levelized costs in the UK for different generating technologies 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 39: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2020 ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 40: Annual global investment in renewable technologies 2004 - 2013 ($bn), 2014
  • Table 41: Investment in renewable technologies by technology in 2013 ($bn), 2014

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Global power generation 1985 - 2013 (TWh), 2014
  • Figure 2: Global electricity production by source in 2012 (TWh), 2014
  • Figure 3: Global electricity production by region in 2013 (TWh), 2014
  • Figure 4: Cost of fossil fuels for power generation ($/GJ and US standard units) for 2012, 2014
  • Figure 5: Average spot price for crude oil 1990 - 2013 ($/bbl), 2014
  • Figure 6: The average cost of natural gas 1990 - 2013 ($/GJ), 2014
  • Figure 7: Average annual cost of natural gas to US utilities (2003 - 2014) ($/GJ), 2014
  • Figure 8: Annual cost of steam coal 1992 - 2013 ($/GJ), 2014
  • Figure 9: Annual cost of coal to US utilities 2004 - 2014 ($/tonne), 2014
  • Figure 10: US retail electricity costs 2003 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 11: Average retail electricity prices within the European Union 2007 - 2013 ($/€), 2014
  • Figure 12: Japanese retail electricity costs 2008 2012 (Yen/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 13: Typical capacity factors for the main power generating technologies (%), 2014
  • Figure 14: New power plants capital costs in the US in 2013 ($/kW), 2014
  • Figure 15: Lazard capital cost estimates for generating technologies ($/kW), 2013
  • Figure 16: UK capital costs for low-carbon generating technologies (£/kW), 2013
  • Figure 17: European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Figure 18: US generating technology capital cost trends 2000 - 2013 ($/kW), 2014
  • Figure 19: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Figure 20: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Figure 21: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Figure 22: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW), 2010
  • Figure 23: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2019 (2011 $/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 24: Lazard levelized cost of electricity in the USA in 2013 ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 25: UK levelized costs for plants entering service in 2019 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 26: US EIA levelized cost of electricity trends 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Figure 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Figure 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Figure 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh), 2010
  • Figure 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
  • Figure 32: Total global renewable capacities 2013 (GW), 2014
  • Figure 33: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Figure 34: Renewable growth rates 2009 - 2013 (%), 2014
  • Figure 35: Predicted US gas prices, 2012 - 2040 ($/GJ), 2014
  • Figure 36: Predicted US coal prices 2012 - 2040 ($/tonne), 2014
  • Figure 37: US levelized generation costs in 2019 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 38: Projected levelized costs in the UK for different generating technologies 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 39: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2020 ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 40: Annual global investment in renewable technologies 2004 - 2013 ($bn), 2014
  • Figure 41: Investment in renewable technologies by technology in 2013 ($bn), 2014
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