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市場調查報告書

太陽能電池的演進和經濟學:太陽能發電的技術趨勢、經濟學、成本、預測

Evolution and Economics of Solar PV Cells: Technology Trends, Economics, Costs and Prospects for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation

出版商 Power Generation Research 商品編碼 311900
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 75 Pages; 23 Tables & 24 Figures
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太陽能電池的演進和經濟學:太陽能發電的技術趨勢、經濟學、成本、預測 Evolution and Economics of Solar PV Cells: Technology Trends, Economics, Costs and Prospects for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation
出版日期: 2014年05月31日 內容資訊: 英文 75 Pages; 23 Tables & 24 Figures
簡介

太陽能是在地球上最豐富的能源來源,到達地表的能量,相當於年度能源消費量的7,500倍。太陽能電池,是幾乎在所有光的條件下都可以運作,堅固的半導體單元(固體單元)。

本報告提供太陽能發電的技術趨勢、成本、預測調查分析,以太陽能電池為焦點,提供有系統的資訊。

第1章 太陽能發電,太陽資源和太陽能電池的成長

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 太陽資源
  • 太陽能電池的成長

第2章 太陽能電池的技術及技術趨勢

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 多層電池與聚光型PV
  • 第三代的太陽能電池
  • 廠房結構要素的平衡
  • 市場佔有率
  • 太陽能電池生產市場

第3章 太陽能電池的經濟學

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 資本成本與成本趨勢
  • 能源成本和太陽能發電的平準化發電成本

第4章 太陽能電池的未來市場與經濟預測

  • 摘要
  • 簡介
  • 成本比較
  • 全球容量成長預測
  • 地區的成長
    • 歐洲
    • 北美
    • 亞太地區
    • 其他
  • 太陽能融資
  • 結論

簡稱集

圖表

目錄
Product Code: PGREvoEcoPVMay14

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The Evolution and Economics of Solar PV Cells report contains 4 chapters:-

Chapter 1. Solar power, the solar resource and the growth of solar PV cells

Solar energy is the most abundant energy resource on the earth today, with the amount of energy reaching the surface equivalent to 7,500 times annual energy consumption. Solar PV cells are robust solid state devices that can operate under virtually all light conditions. Their output is greater the higher the light intensity available. Solar intensity varies globally, with the best regions generally close to the equator. Africa, south and southeast Asia, Australia, the southern states of the USA, and central and south America - all have good resources. However, even regions with lower average insolation, such as northern Europe or Japan - can exploit solar photovoltaic technology successfully. Solar PV cell capacity has grown rapidly in the second decade of the twenty-first century, reaching 137GW at the end of 2013.

Chapter 2. Solar PV cell technologies and technology trends

Solar PV cells rely on semiconductors to absorb light, and convert it into electricity. Each semiconductor is characterized by a bandwidth, and the optimum bandwidth for a solar collector is 1.4eV. The most popular material for solar cells is crystalline silicon, and the market is dominated by cells made from either single crystal or multicrystalline silicon (polycrystalline silicon) substrates. At its best silicon can achieve close to 25% energy conversion efficiency. Other materials, such as cadmium telluride or cadmium selenide are usually deployed in the form of thin films, which are conventionally considered cheaper to produce, although recent economic trends have contradicted this. Most solar devices are made from simple planar structures, designed to absorb light across their surface. An alternative approach is to use a very high efficiency, multilayer, solar cell and a solar concentrator. Concentrating solar converters have achieved nearly 45% efficiency in laboratory conditions. Organic solar cells are also being developed. These should also be cheap to produce if they can be perfected. While these new technologies are explored, conventional silicon cells have come to dominate the market with a share of 83%, and this dominance can be expected to continue over the short to medium term. Meanwhile, production is concentrated in China and Taiwan.

Chapter 3. The economics of solar PV cells

Solar PV cell costs have fallen rapidly over the past four to five years, and this has led to the technology becoming more competitive, in turn leading to cuts in subsidies for solar photovoltaic installations. With the cost and value of solar energy in flux, the US state of Minnesota has recently introduced a new, transparent approach to solar pricing that could for the benchmark for solar tariffs. The underlying capital cost of a solar PV installation depends in part on the type of installation - with small residential rooftop installations costing more than large utility installations. Costs also vary from country to country, with variations depending on a number of elements that are not intrinsically a part of the actual solar installation. In particular, the cost of rooftop installation in Germany is significantly lower than the same installation in the USA. It seems likely that installation costs are widely below US$3/W. The low cost of solar photovoltaic installations means that the cost of the electricity they produce has also fallen. For domestic rooftop installations, this cost is now below the cost of electricity from the grid in a number of important markets.

Chapter 4. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells

The market for solar cells has shifted away from Europe, the main driver for the past decade, towards Asia and the Asia Pacific region. However the market is also broadening and growth can be expected in many parts of the world - that have previously not shown a strong take up. This is being driven by the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic technology - which can now compete in some areas without any subsidies. This will come in spite of an expected stabilization of the cost of solar modules. On one prediction, the size of the solar market, globally, will reach 100GW by 2018. Over the longer term, estimates for the amount of electricity that might be supplied globally by solar cells varies between 0.6% and 4% by 2035. In Europe it already supplied 3% of total electricity demand. Important regional markets include China, Japan, the USA, Australia, and Mexico. The development of new financial vehicles that attract private sector investment for solar installations could help lower the cost of financing solar photovoltaic projects, potentially leading to further cost reductions.

Key features of this report

  • Analysis of solar PV power generation technology costs, concepts, drivers and components.
  • Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
  • Insight relating to the most innovative technologies and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers.
  • Examination of the key solar PV power generation technologies costs.
  • Identification of the key trends shaping the market, as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will drive innovation moving forward.

Key benefits from reading this report

  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in solar PV power generation markets.
  • Assess solar PV power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs, overnight costs, and levelized costs.
  • Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact.
  • Quantify capital and levelized cost trends and how these vary regionally .

Key findings of this report

  • 1.By 2013 the aggregate global installed capacity was 136,700MW, and annual growth was 37,007MW, the highest annual growth yet recorded.
  • 2.In 2013, the largest capacity addition, 11,300MW, was in China, followed by Europe with 10,253MW.
  • 3.By far the largest US market was in California, with 2,621MW of solar PV added in 2013.
  • 4.The largest share of the market in 2013 was taken by multicrystalline silicon cells (polycrystalline silicon), with 64% of the total, followed by conventional single crystal silicon (monocrystalline silicon) with 19%.
  • 5.In March 2014, German modules were priced at €0.68/W and Japanese/Korean modules at €0.69/W. The continued price difference reflects a perception that Chinese modules are less robust and reliable than their competitors, but the margin is narrowing.

Key questions answered by this report

  • 1.What are the drivers shaping and influencing power plant development in the electricity industry?
  • 2.What is solar PV power generation going to cost?
  • 3.Which solar PV power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of power generated, cost and viability?
  • 4.Which solar PV power generation types are likely to find favour with manufacturers moving forward?
  • 5.Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why?

Key areas covered by the report

  • Key products/categories profiled: Energy
  • Evolution and Economics of Solar PV Cells - Technology trends, economics, costs and prospects for solar photovoltaic power generation.
  • Key regions/countries covered: Europe and United States of America. Global focus.

Who this report is for

Power utility strategists, energy analysts, research managers, power sector manufacturers, power developers, investors in renewables systems and infrastructure, renewable energy developers, energy/power planning managers, energy/power development managers, governmental organisations, system operators, companies investing in renewable power infrastructure and generation, investment banks, infrastructure developers and investors, intergovernmental lenders, energy security analysts.

Why buy Evolution and Economics of Solar PV Cells

  • To utilise in-depth assessment and analysis of the current and future technological and market state of power, carried out by an industry expert with 30 years in the power generation industry.
  • Use cutting edge information and data.
  • Use the highest level of research carried out. Expert analysis to say what is happening in the market and what will happen next.
  • Have the 'what if' questions answered.
  • Save time and money by having top quality research done for you at a low cost.

Table of Contents

About the author

Disclaimer

  • Note about authors and sources

Table of contents

Table of tables

Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1. Solar power, the solar resource and the growth of solar cells
  • Chapter 2. Solar cell technologies and technology trends
  • Chapter 3. The economics of solar cells
  • Chapter 4. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells

Chapter 1. Solar power, the solar resource and the growth of solar cells

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • The solar resource
  • The growth of solar cells

Chapter 2. Solar cell technologies and technology trends

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Multilayer cells and concentrating PV
  • Third generation solar cells
  • Balance of plant components
  • Market shares
  • The solar cell production market

Chapter 3. The economics of solar cells

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Capital costs and cost trends
  • Energy costs and levelized costs for solar PV

Chapter 4. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Cost comparisons
  • Global capacity growth predictions
  • Regional growth
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Asia and the Asia-Pacific region
    • Rest of the world
  • Solar financing
  • Conclusion

List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Solar PV, annual installed capacity 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 2: Solar PV, annual installed PV capacity by region in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 3: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in Europe 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 4: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in China 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 5: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in the Asia Pacific region 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 6: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in America 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014.
  • Table 7: Solar PV, solar cell semiconductor bandwidths and best recorded efficiencies, 2013
  • Table 8: Solar PV, market share in 2013 by technology (%), 2014
  • Table 9: Solar PV, Top ten cell producers and module suppliers, 2013
  • Table 10: Annual PV module production capacity 2009 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Table 11: Solar PV, European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules from different sources, 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Table 12: Solar PV, European thin film spot prices 2009 - 2013 (€/W), 2014
  • Table 13: Solar PV, annual average US installed system price 2001 - 2013 (US$/W), 2014
  • Table 14: Solar PV, comparison of soft installation costs in Germany and the USA (US$/W), 2013
  • Table 15: Solar PV, US EIA capital cost estimates for solar PV 2001 -2013 (US$/kW), 2013
  • Table 16: US EIA levelized costs for solar PV plants, 2016 - 2019 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 17: Global comparisons of residential solar PV LCOE and cost of electricity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 18: Solar PV, US states that have already achieved parity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 19: US EIA levelized cost comparisons 2019 and 2040 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 20: Global PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Table 21: Solar generation forecasts 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Table 22: Solar PV, Historical and predicted annual capacity growth for selected countries and regions 2010 - 2015 (MW), 2014
  • Table 23: European PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Solar horizontal irradiation map of the world.
  • Figure 2: Solar PV, annual installed capacity 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 3: Solar PV, annual installed PV capacity by region in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 4: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in Europe 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014.
  • Figure 5: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in China 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 6: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in the Asia Pacific region 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 7: Solar PV, annual installed capacity in America 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 8: Solar PV, solar cell semiconductor bandwidths and best recorded efficiencies, 2013
  • Figure 9: Solar PV, market share in 2013 by technology (%), 2014
  • Figure 10: Annual PV module production capacity 2009 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Figure 11: Solar PV, European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules from different sources, 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Figure 12: Solar PV, European thin film spot prices 2009 - 2013 (€/W), 2014
  • Figure 13: Solar PV, annual average US installed system price 2001 - 2013 (US$/W), 2014
  • Figure 14: Solar PV, comparison of soft installation costs in Germany and the USA (US$/W), 2013
  • Figure 15: Solar PV, US EIA capital cost estimates for solar PV 2001 -2013 (US$/kW), 2013
  • Figure 16: US EIA levelized costs for solar PV plants, 2016 - 2019 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 17: Levelised cost variations as a function of solar isolation (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 18: National comparisons of LCOE and Cost of electricity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 17: Solar PV, US states that have already achieved parity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 18: US EIA levelized cost comparisons 2019 and 2040 (US$/MWh), 2014.
  • Figure 19: Global PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Figure 20: Solar generation forecasts 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Figure 21: Solar PV, Historical and predicted annual capacity growth for selected countries and regions 2010 - 2015 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 22: European PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
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