美國巧克力市場

Abstract

With 2006 sales estimated at close to $16 billion through all channels, chocolate is forecast to grow to $18 billion by 2011, according to the U.S. Market for Chocolate, a fully updated Packaged Facts report. Strong consumer interest in the reported health benefits of dark chocolate and a general trend towards product premiumization (including organic and fair trade products) are offsetting steady declines in other categories, such as sugar-free and novelty products. For example, the market share for premium chocolate grew from 13% of the total market in 2002 to nearly 17% in 2006. This report measures the size of the market and looks at overall growth factors. Then it describes specific trends and opportunities that support continued market growth. The analysis includes a discussion of how major chocolate manufacturers are structuring their new product development and marketing initiatives to stay on top of this market. Other topics of study include supply issues and consumer buying behavior.

Report Methodology

The U.S. Market for Chocolate relies upon several data sources that track chocolate sales. Statistics on manufacturer shipments are collected annually by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC). Retail chocolate sales data for this report have been provided under special arrangement with Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Global confectionery sales data are published by the National Confectioners Association (NCA), which also provided detailed statistics for U.S. retail sales and consumption. Chocolate consumption data are available from the NCA for the United States and CAOBISCO (Association des Industries de la Chocolaterie, Biscuiterie et Confiserie de l' E.U.) for the European Union. Detailed consumer profiles of key demographics, including breakouts by gender, race/ethnicity, and household composition, are provided, based on Simmons Market Research Bureau data.

About the Author

C. Curtis Vreeland is a specialist with 20 years experience in the confectionery industry, conducting market research, trends analysis and product development. He has published nearly two dozen articles in trade and consumer publications. Additionally, he created and manages the Next Generation Chocolatier competition that selects America' s best new artisanal chocolate makers. Curtis has an MS in Applied Economics from Cornell. He is Principal & Senior Consultant at Vreeland & Associates, where he consults with a number of small to large confectioners.

How You Will Benefit from this Report

If your company is already competing in the chocolate market, or is considering making the leap, you will find this report invaluable, as it provides a comprehensive package of information and insight not offered in any other single source. You will gain a thorough understanding of the current, past and future market for chocolate, as well as projected sales and trends through 2011. Contributing to that understanding will be a complete analysis of sales data from the NCA, DOC, IRI, Simmons and other published and trade sources.

This report will help:

• Marketing Managers identify market opportunities and develop targeted promotion plans for chocolate.
• Research and development professionals stay on top of competitor initiatives and explore demand for products in the chocolate arena.
• Advertising agencies working with clients in the food industry understand the product buyer to develop messages and images that compel consumers to purchase these products.
• Business development executives understand the dynamics of the market and identify possible partnerships.
• Information and research center librarians provide market researchers, brand and product managers and other colleagues with the vital information they need to do their jobs more effectively.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

• and Methodology
• Global Confectionery Market
• U.S. Confectionery Industry
• Estimated Retail Chocolate Sales
• Table 1-1 Estimated Retail Sales of Chocolate, 2002-2006
• Volume and Value
• Nearly 43% of Chocolate Sales Occur in Non-Traditional Channels
• Retail Sales by Product Category
• Novelty, Diet & Gift Chocolate Categories Contracted in 2006
• Table 1-2 IRI-Tracked Chocolate Growth by Dollar and Unit, 2006 ($ million and %)
• Product Claims
• Premiumization Trend
• & Wellness/Functional Trend
• Dark Chocolate
• Functional
• Super Fruits
• Origin Trend
• Organic Trend
• Ethical Consumerism Trend
• Marketers
• Brands
• Cocoa Production
• Cocoa Farmers
• Organic Cocoa Production
• Fair Trade Cocoa Production
• Sustainable Cocoa Farming
• Chocolate Demographics & Psychographics
• Marketer Demographics
• Purchasing Frequency
• Women Index High for Every-Day Gourmet
• Chocolate Preferences Surprisingly Loyal Across Age Brackets
• Young Adults Lead in Chocolate Brand Preferences
• Patterns by Household Income and Value of Housing

Chapter 2 Market Size and Growth

• Methodology and Scope
• NAIC Product Definitions
• Global Confectionery Market
• Table 2-1 Global Confectionery Sales by Type, 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Table 2-2 Global Confectionery Sales by Region, 2002-2006 and Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Table 2-3 Global Chocolate Sales by Region, 2002-2006 and Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 (metric tons)
• Table 2-4 Top 20 Total Confectionery Retail Markets by Country, 2002-2006 and Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Table 2-5 Top 20 Chocolate Retail Markets by Country, 2002-2006 and Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Table 2-6 Top 20 Chocolate Retail Markets by Country, 2002-2006 and Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 (metric tons)
• U.S. Confectionery Industry
• Table 2-7 Retail Confectionery Sales, 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Market Share for Chocolate Remains Steady for 10 Years
• Figure 2-1 Retail Confectionery Sales Market Share, 1997 vs. 2006
• An Ever Expanding Array of Snacking Choices
• Manufacturer Shipment Dollar Values Outpace Quantity Reflecting Surge in Demand for Higher-Value Products
• Table 2-8 Manufacturer Shipments of Chocolate, 2002-2006 (in million $ and pounds)
• Enrobed Chocolate Bars with Bakery Centers Lead the Way
• Figure 2-2 Manufacturer Shipments of Chocolate CAGR, by Sub-Category Value and Quantity, 2006 (%)
• Table 2-9 Manufacturer Shipments of Chocolate by Sub-Category, 2002-2006 (million pounds)
• Table 2-10 Manufacturer Shipments of Chocolate by Sub-Category, 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Figure 2-3 Market share of Manufacturer Shipments of Chocolate, by Sub-Category and Value, 2006 (%)
• Estimated Retail Chocolate Sales
• Table 2-11 NCA Estimated Retail Sales of Chocolate and CAGR, 2002-2006 ($ million and %)
• Table 2-12 Producer Price Indexes for Chocolate Industry, Index and Annual Change, 2001-2005
• Nearly 43% of Chocolate Sales Occur in Non-Traditional Channels
• Table 2-13 NCA Estimated Retail Chocolate Sales, Growth & Share by Distribution Channel, 2006 (in million $ and %)
• $313 Million in Chocolate Sales Are Not Tracked
• Table 2-14 Estimated Total Retail Sales of Chocolate, 2002-2006 Volume and Value
• Figure 2-5 Packaged Facts Estimated Retail Sales & Growth of Chocolate, 2002-2006
• Figure 2-6 Packaged Facts Estimated Retail Sales & Quantity Growth Rates for Chocolate, 2002-2006 (Percentage) Retail Sales by Product Category
• Figure 2-7 IRI-Tracked Chocolate Market Share by Product Categories, 2006
• Novelty, Diet & Gift Chocolate Categories Contracted in 2006
• Table 2-15 IRI-Tracked Chocolate Growth by Dollar and Unit, 2006 (in million $ and %)
• But the Every Day Category Exhibited Growth Over 5 Years
• Figure 2-8 IRI-Tracked Chocolate Confectionery Growth by Product Categories, 2003-2006 (%)
• Table 2-16 IRI-Tracked Retail Sales of Chocolate by Product Category, 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Table 2-17 IRI-Tracked Market Share of Chocolate by Product Category, 2002-2006 (%)
• Table 2-18 IRI-Tracked Growth Rates of Chocolate by Product Category, 2002-2006 and 5-Year CAGR (%)
• Day Chocolate
• Box Chocolate
• Novelty Chocolate
• Seasonal Chocolate
• Table 2-19 IRI-Tracked Seasonal Chocolate Sales, 2006; 1-Year and 5-Year CAGR Trends (in million $ and %)
• Table 2-20 IRI-Tracked Retail Sales of Seasonal Chocolate by Holiday, 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Table 2-21 IRI-Tracked Market Share of Seasonal Chocolate by Holiday, 2002-2006 (%)
• Table 2-22 IRI-Tracked Growth Rates of Seasonal Chocolate by Holiday, 2002-2006 & 5-Year CAGR (%)
• Table 2-23 IRI-Tracked Dollar & Unit Sales of Seasonal Chocolate by Holiday, 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Diet/Sugarfree/Sugarless Chocolate
• Figure 2-9 IRI-Tracked Diet Chocolate Sales 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Private-Label Chocolate
• Capita Consumption
• Table 2-24 Per Capita Consumption of Chocolate in Selected Countries, 2000 vs. 2004 (Pounds)
• Table 2-25 Per Capita Consumption of Confectionery Products in the U.S., 2005 (Dollars, Pounds, %)
• Table 2-26 Per Capita Consumption of Chocolate in the U.S., 1997-2006 (Pounds and Dollars)
• Figure 2-10 U.S. Per Capita Chocolate Consumption, 1997-2006 (Dollars)
• Figure 2-11 U.S. Per Capita Chocolate Consumption, 1997-2006 (Pounds) Sales Forecast
• The Many Expressions of Chocolate
• Factors That Could Negatively Affect Chocolate' s Future
• Factors That Could Positively Affect Chocolate' s Future
• Figure 2-12 Chocolate Sales Forecast, 2007-2011 (in million $ and %)

Chapter 3 Trends and Opportunities

• Introduction
• Product Introductions
• The Majority of New Products Are Just Brand Extensions
• Table 3-1 New Product Confectionery Introductions, 2005 vs. 2006 (SKUs)
• Product Claims
• Table 3-2 Chocolate New Product Claims, 2006 (no. of reports, % share)
• Table 3-3 Top 10 Chocolate New Product Claims, 2002-2006 (no. of reports)
• 1: Premiumization
  • Table 3-4 Premium Chocolate Segments, by Price ($/ounce & $/pound)
  • Masstige; Premium Made Affordable for All
  • Upscale and über Premium for the More Sophisticated Palate
  • Premium Chocolate Sales Expand at Double the Rate of Conventional Chocolate
  • Table 3-5 Premium & Conventional Chocolate Retail Sales and Premium as % of Total, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Table 3-6 Premium and Conventional Chocolate Retail Sales Growth Rates and 5 Yr CAGR, 2002-2006
  • Figure 3-1 Premium and Conventional Chocolate Retail Sales Growth Rates, 2002-2006
  • Table 3-7 Sales of Top Selling Premium Chocolate Brands, 2002-2006 (in million $)
  • Table 3-8 Sales of Top Selling Premium Chocolate Brands, 2005/06 Percent Change and 5 YR CAGR
  • Figure 3-2 Premium & Conventional Chocolate Retail Sales, 2006 & 2011 (in million $)
• 2: Health & Wellness/Functional
  • Table 3-9 New Product Development by Attribute 2006
  • Sub-Trend: Dark Chocolate
  • Figure 3-2 New Dark Chocolate Introductions, Number of SKUs and Percentage of Total Chocolate Introductions 2002-2006
  • Table 3-10 Dark, Milk & White Chocolate Retail Sales and Dark as Percent of Total, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Table 3-11 Dark, Milk & White Chocolate Retail Sales Growth Rates & CAGR, 2002-2006 (%)
  • Figure 3-3 Dark, Milk & White Chocolate Retail Sales Growth Rates, 2002-2006 (%)
  • Figure 3-4 Dark and Non-Dark Chocolate Retail Sales, 2006 & 2011 (in million $)
  • Sub-Trend: Functional Chocolate
  • Table 3-12 Glossary of Medical Terms Related to Cocoa & Chocolate
  • Sub-Trend: Super Fruits
• 3: Single Origin
• 4: Organic
  • Table 3-13 U.S. Organic Food Sales, Growth Rate, CAGR and Market Share, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Figure 3-4 U.S. Organic Food Sales and Growth Rate, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Table 3-14 U.S. Organic Chocolate Sales, Growth Rate, CAGR and Market Share, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Figure 3-5 U.S. Organic Chocolate Sales and Growth Rate, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Table 3-15 U.S. New Organic & Conventional Chocolate Product Introductions by SKU, 2005-2006 (in million $ and %)
  • Table 3-16 Price Premiums Consumers will Pay by Attribute
  • Table 3-17 U.S. Organic & Conventional Chocolate Sales and Annual Growth, 2007 & 2011 (in million $ and %)
  • Figure 3-6 U.S. Organic Chocolate Sales Forecast with Linear Growth, 2001-2011 (in million $)
  • Figure 3-7 U.S. Organic Chocolate Sales Forecast with Exponential Growth, 2001-2011 (in million $) 5: Ethical Consumerism
  • Figure 3-8 Certified Fair trade & Organic Bean Imports, 2002-2006 (pounds and %)
  • Table 3-18 Imports of Certified Fair trade & Organic Cocoa Beans, 2002-2006 (pounds and %)
• 6: Chocolate Cafés
• 7: Other Emerging Trends
  • Table 3-19 Non-Confectionery Chocolate-based New Product Introductions 2006 (% of reports)
  • Sub-Trend: Chocolate Beverages
  • Table 3-20 Non-Confectionery Chocolate-based New Product Introductions, 2006 (# of reports)
  • Sub-Trend: Health & Beauty
  • Table 3-21 Chocolate-based Health & Beauty New Product Introductions 2006 (% of reports)
  • Sub-Trend: Spa Treatments
  • Sub-Trend: Savory/Spices
  • Legislative Issues
  • Issue: Sugar Reform
  • Figure 3-9 Employment Contraction in the Confectionery Industry, 1997 & 2004 (no. of employees)
  • Table 3-22 Employment Contraction in the Confectionery Industry, 1997 & 2004 (no. of employees, % change)
  • Table 3-23 Summary of Recommendations on Sugar Support Policies
  • Issue: Obesity
  • Issue: School Vending & Candy Taxes
  • Table 3-24 Major Federal & State Legislative Activities 2006

Chapter 4 The Marketers

• Chocolate Marketers and Their Brands
• Figure 4-1 Top 10 Global Confectioners That Manufacture Chocolate by Market Share, 2006 (%)
• U.S. Chocolate Marketers
• Table 4-1 Top 82 Global Confectioners That Manufacture Chocolate, Net Sales, Number of Employees & Plants and Type of Chocolate Products
• Figure 4-2 Top 5 U.S. Chocolate Marketers, by Market Share, 2002-2006 (%)
• Table 4-2 Top 15 U.S. Chocolate Marketers Sales and CAGR, 2002-2006 (in million $ and %)
• Table 4-3 Top 15 U.S. Chocolate Marketers by Market Share, 2002-2006 (%)
• Figure 4-3 Top 15 U.S. Chocolate Marketers Ranked by Market Share Change, 2006 vs. 2002 (%)
• Chocolate Marketers by Product Category
• Table 4-4 Top 15 U.S. Chocolate Marketers Sales by Product Category, 2002-2006 (in million $)
• Table 4-5 Top 15 U.S. Chocolate Marketers' Market Share by Product Category, 2006 (%)
• Sales by Brands
• Table 4-6 Top 10 U.S. Chocolate Brands for Chocolate Candy Bar < 3.5 oz., 2006 ($ million and %)
• Table 4-7 Top 10 U.S. Chocolate Brands for Chocolate Candy Box/Bag > 3.5 oz., 2006 (in million $ and %)
• Table 4-8 Top 10 U.S. Chocolate Brands for Chocolate Candy Snack/Fun Size, 2006 ($ million and %)
• Table 4-9 Top 10 U.S. Chocolate Brands for Gift Box Chocolate, 2006 ($ million and %)
• Table 4-10 Top 10 U.S. Chocolate Brands for Diet Chocolate, 2006 ($ million and %)
  • Marketer Profiles
  • Callebaut
  • Cadbury
  • Hershey
  • & Sprungli
  • Mars
  • Nestlé
  • Russell Stover

Chapter 5 Supply Issues

• Cacao Characteristics
• Forastero
• Trinitario
• Hybrids
• Harvest Cycles
• Table 5-1 Harvest Seasons for Bulk and Flavor Cocoa by Month
• Fine vs. Bulk Cocoa
• Table 5-2 Fine Cocoa Trade Names and Aroma/Flavor Characteristics
• Other Flavor Aspects
• Bean Purity
• Consistency in Bean Quality
• Yield of Edible Material
• World Cocoa Production
• Table 5-3 Cocoa Production by Major Producing Country and Region, 2004/05-2006/07 (in thousands of metric tons)
• Table 5-4 Cocoa Exports by Producing Country and Region, 2002/03-2004/05 (in metric tons)
• Fine Cocoa
• Table 5-5 Fine/Flavor Cocoa Exports as a Share of Total Cocoa Exports by Country, 1976 vs. 2005 (%)
• Table 5-6 Fine/Flavor Cocoa Production and Share of World Total, 2002/03-2006/07 (thousands of metric tons)
• Crop Diseases
• Cocoa Farmers
• Child Labor
• Organic Cocoa Production
• Table 5-7 Organic Cocoa Production and Exports by Producing Country and Region (metric tons and %)
• Table 5-8 Organic Certified Cocoa Producers by Region and Country
• Certification Requirements
• Price Premium
• Supply Channels
• Figure 5-1 USDA Organic Seal
• Efforts to Boost Production
• Fair Trade Cocoa Production
• Table 5-9 Fair Trade Cocoa Producers by Region and Country, Sales (in 2003/04 metric tons) and Key Characteristics Certification
• Figure 5-2 TransFair USA Seal
• Figure 5-3 Fair Trade vs. Conventional F.O.B. Market Prices, Sept. 1998 to Dec. 2004 ($ per metric ton) Imports and Exports
• Table 5-10 Fair Trade Cocoa Exports by Country, 1999-2003 (metric tons), 2003 Market Share and CAGR
• Table 5-11 Fair Trade Cocoa Imports by Country, 1999-2003 (metric tons), 2003 Market Share and CAGR
• Sustainable Cocoa Farming
• World Cocoa Foundation Launches "Healthy Communities" Program Certification
• Table 5-12 Rainforest Alliance Certified Sustainable Cocoa Production by Country, 2006 & 2007 (metric tons)
• Figure 5-4 Rainforest Alliance Seal
• Manufacturer Initiatives
• Popularity of Premium Chocolate Intensifies Need for High Quality Beans
• Mars and Kraft Initiatives

Chapter 6 The Consumer

• Simmons Market Research Bureau Data
• Marketer Reputation
• Table 6-1 Consumer Satisfaction Index for Top Food Manufacturers, 2002-2006 (index, % change)
• Chocolate User Demographics and Psychographics
• Figure 6-1 Candy Usage Rates: Chocolate and Non-Chocolate Candy, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-2 Purchasing Indexes by Demographic Breakout: Consumers of Chocolate and Non-Chocolate Candy Brands, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-3 Indexes for Food- and Diet-Related Attitudes and Behaviors: Consumers of Chocolate and Non-Chocolate Candy, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Chocolate Top Choice for Afternoon Snacking
• Table 6-4 Top Snack Foods Eaten in the Afternoon, 2006
• Package Format Preferences
• Table 6-5 Purchasing Indexes of Consumers of Chocolate and Non-Chocolate Candy: Package Size, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Marketer Demographics
• Figure 6-2 Candy Usage Rates by Marketer: Hershey, Mars and Nestlé, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-6 Purchasing Indexes by Demographic Breakout: Chocolate Purchases by Marketer (Hershey, Mars and Nestlé), 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Brand Purchasing Frequency
• Table 6-7 Preference Rates of the Top Chocolate and Non-Chocolate Brands, 2006 (% of U.S. adults)
• Table 6-8 Chocolate Candy Brands Eaten Most Frequently, 2003-2006 and % Change (U.S. Adults)
• Attitude and Behavior Variations by Package Format and Number of Servings
• Table 6-9 Indexes for Chocolate Package Type Eaten, by Agreement with Selected Psychographics Statements, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-10 Indexes for Number of Chocolate Servings During the Last 30 Days, by Agreement with Selected Psychographic Statements, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Attitude and Behavior Variations by Brands
• Table 6-11 Indexes for Chocolate Candy Brand, by Agreement with Selected Psychographic Statements, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Women Index High for Every-Day Gourmet
• Chocolate Preferences Surprisingly Loyal Across Age Brackets
• Table 6-12 Top 10 Chocolate Candy Brands Eaten Most Frequently, by Age Group, 2006 (U.S. Kids, Teens and Adults)
• Young Adults Lead in Chocolate Brand Preferences
• Brand Strengths by Region
• Upscale Premium Brands Preferred by the Better Educated
• Patterns by Household Income and Value of Housing
• Table 6-13 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Gender, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-14 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Age Bracket, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-15 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Race/Ethnicity, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-16 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Region, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-17 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Marital Status, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-17 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Marital Status, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-17 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Marital Status, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-18 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by People in Household, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-19 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Age of Children in Household, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-20 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Highest Degree of Educational Attainment, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-21 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Employment Status, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-22 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Occupation, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-23 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Number of Employed Adults in Household, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-24 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Individual Income, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-25 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Household Income, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-26 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Type of Residence, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-27 Purchasing Indexes for Selected Chocolate Candy Brands, by Value of Residence, 2006 (U.S. adults)
• Table 6-28 Chocolate Candy Brands Eaten Most Frequently, by Age Group, 2006 (U.S. Kids, Teens and Adults)
• Table 6-29 Projected U.S. Population by Age Bracket, 2000-2010 (in thousands)
• Table 6-30 Share of U.S. Population Growth for Selected Age Brackets, 2005-2010 (%)

Appendix 1 Selected Marketers

Appendix 2 Acronyms