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市場調查報告書

美國的聚乙烯、乙烷、乙烯出口市場:2016-2020年

US Polyethylene, Ethylene & Ethane Export Market Report 2016-2020

出版商 Petrochemical Update 商品編碼 344207
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 100 Pages of Analyses, 120 Tabs/Excel, 56 Figures, 44 Tables
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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美國的聚乙烯、乙烷、乙烯出口市場:2016-2020年 US Polyethylene, Ethylene & Ethane Export Market Report 2016-2020
出版日期: 2016年04月12日 內容資訊: 英文 100 Pages of Analyses, 120 Tabs/Excel, 56 Figures, 44 Tables
簡介

本報告提供美國的乙烷、乙烯、聚乙烯的出口趨勢的相關調查,乙烷、乙烯、聚乙烯的價格趨勢,供需數量及出口量的變化與預測,物流和基礎設施的現況與展望,世界市場趨勢和美國市場的競爭力相關分析彙整。

第1章 簡介

  • 產業、市場概要
  • 原料
  • 出口的物流

第2章 美國市場的基礎資訊

  • 乙烷
    • 供給
    • 供給預測
    • 需求
    • 乙烷需求
  • 價格預測:乙烷、乙烯、聚乙烯
    • 各石油價格方案
  • 出口用物流、基礎設施
  • 乙烯
    • 供給
    • 需求
  • 美國的乙烯出口量、基礎設施
  • 聚乙烯
    • 供給
    • 需求
    • 出口平衡、預測
  • 出口用物流、基礎設施

第3章 國際市場基礎資訊

  • 乙烷
    • 供給
    • 需求
    • 石油化學品需求
    • 全球發電用乙烷需求
    • 價格趨勢
    • 國際貿易
    • 進口用物流&基礎設施
    • 主要港口、接收站
    • 乙烷海上運輸
    • 乙烷艦隊
    • 造船的經濟學
    • 船舶投資分析
    • 運費估計
    • 乙烷艦運費估計
  • 乙烯
    • 供給
    • 出口 需求
    • 價格趨勢
    • 歐洲的乙烯價格預測
    • 成果
    • 出口平衡、預測
    • 出口用物流&基礎設施
    • 乙烯艦隊
    • 乙烯運費
  • 聚乙烯
    • 國際貿易
    • 出口成本

第4章 美國的出口:競爭力

  • 整體出口成本
  • 乙烯的接收站成本比較
  • 原料的權衡
  • 美國的出口:經濟性分析

第5章 總論

圖表

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目錄

The report is a quantitative data based report, completed using original research conducted in 2015 providing data and analysis on the production and export of polyethylene, ethylene and ethane, from the US 2015-2020.

The research includes export costs, supply and demand Analysis and price forecasts.

Key Deliverables:

  • Price forecasts: polyethylene, ethylene, ethane.
  • U.S. Polyethylene ðane export volumes, logistics and infrastructure.
  • International markets: supply and demand, trade flows and infrastructure.
  • Competitiveness of U.S. polyethylene exports: total export costs, terminal cost comparisons, feedstock trade-offs and U.S. export net backs.

Key Questions Answered include:

  • What is the projected U.S. supply surplus for ethylene, polyethylene and ethane between 2015 &2020?
  • What are the primary, competitive international markets for U.S. exported polyethylene, ethylene and ethane?
  • What are the projected logistics infrastructure and transportation costs to export U.S. ethylene, polyethylene and ethane to key international markets?
  • What are the economic trade-offs for international regions to import U.S. ethylene vs. polyethylene vs ethane?

SAMPLE

Figure 23: Ethylene Production by Feedstock in U.S. 2012 to 2025

Table of Contents

  • List of Tables
  • List of Figures
  • List of Appendices
  • Executive Summary
    • U.S. Market
      • Ethane
      • Ethylene
      • Polyethylene
    • International Markets and Shipping Logistics
      • Ethane
      • Ethylene
      • Polyethylene

1. Introduction

  • Industry and Market Overview
  • Feedstocks
  • Export Logistics

2. U.S. Market Fundamentals

  • Ethane
    • Supply
    • Supply Forecast
    • Demand
    • Ethane Demand
  • Price Forecast - Ethane, Ethylene, Polyethylene
    • Reference Case Results
    • Low Oil Price Case
    • High Oil Price Case
    • Graphs
  • Export Logistics and Infrastructure
  • Ethylene
    • Supply
    • Demand
  • U.S. Ethylene Export Volumes and Infrastructure
  • Polyethylene
    • Supply
    • Demand
    • Export Balance and Forecast
  • Export Logistics and Infrastructure

3. International Market Fundamentals

  • Ethane
    • Supply
    • Demand
    • Petrochemical Demand
    • International Ethane Demand for Power Production
    • Pricing
    • International Trade
    • Import Logistics and Infrastructure
    • Major Ports and Terminals
    • Transporting Ethane on Ships
    • Ethane Carrier Fleet
    • Ship Newbuilding Economics
    • Ship Investment Analysis
    • Freight Rate Estimation
    • Estimated Ethane Carrier Freight Rates
  • Ethylene
    • Supply
    • Import Demand
    • Pricing
    • Ethylene prices in Europe Forecast
    • Results
    • Import Balance and Forecast
    • Import Logistics and Infrastructure
    • Ethylene Carrier Fleet
    • Ethylene Freight Rates
  • Polyethylene
    • International Trade
    • Export Costs

4. Competitiveness of U.S. Exports

  • Total Export Costs
    • U.S. Terminal and Throughput Cost Estimation for Ethane and Ethylene
    • Throughput Costs for Other Products at U.S. Ports
    • Throughput Cost Estimation for U.S. and International Ports
  • Ethylene Terminal Cost Comparisons
  • Feedstock Trade-Offs
  • U.S. Export Economic Analysis

5. Conclusions

  • References
  • Acronyms

Tables

  • Table 1: Product Yield by Feedstock
  • Table 2: Ethane Export Contracts Announced To Date
  • Table 3: Forecast Ethane Production 2015-2025
  • Table 4: International Ethane Cracker Investments in the U.S
  • Table 5: New U.S. Ethane Crackers
  • Table 6: Announced U.S. Ethane Cracker Expansions
  • Table 7: Reference Case Monthly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing Forecast
  • Table 8: Reference Case Yearly Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Pricing Forecast
  • Table 9: Low Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Monthly Pricing Forecast
  • Table 10: Low Oil Price Ethane, Ethylene, LDPE and HDPE Yearly Forecast
  • Table 11: High Oil Price Case Monthly Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Pricing Forecast
  • Table 12: High Oil Price Case Ethane, Ethylene HDPE and LDPE Yearly Pricing Forecast
  • Table 13: U.S. Ethane Export Terminals
  • Table 14: U.S. Ethane Sale Contracts
  • Table 15: Feedstock Demand and Supply Forecast 2012 to 2025
  • Table 16: U.S. Polyethylene Projects
  • Table 17: U.S. Ethylene Export in 2015 through Targa Terminal, Houston, TX
  • Table 18: Polyethylene Plants Starting up 2015-2020
  • Table 19: North Sea Ethane Balance
  • Table 20: International Ethane Terminals
  • Table 21: Dedicated Ethane Carrier Fleet
  • Table 22: Ship Investment Analysis Assumptions
  • Table 23: Required Time Charter Equivalent (Day Rate)
  • Table 24: Voyage Calculation Analysis - Routes U.S. Gulf to Asia
  • Table 25: Voyage Calculation Analysis - Routes U.S. Gulf to Americas
  • Table 26: Voyage Calculation Analysis - U.S. Gulf and U.S. East Coast to NW Europe
  • Table 27: Ethane Trade Route, Ship Capacity, and Freight Rate Estimates
  • Table 28: Largest Ethylene Importing Countries in 1,000 Tons
  • Table 29: Ethylene International Trade Summary (1,000 Tons)
  • Table 30: Short-Haul Long-Term Ethylene Trades
  • Table 31: Long-Haul Ethylene Long-Term Trades
  • Table 32: Ethylene Long Haul Trade (1,000 Tons)
  • Table 33: Ethylene Prices in Europe August 2015 to December 2016
  • Table 34: 10-year Ethylene Price in Europe Forecast
  • Table 35: Major Ethylene Import Terminals
  • Table 36: U.S. Ethylene Export Marine Freight Costs
  • Table 37: Largest Ethylene Importing Countries 2004, 2009, 2014
  • Table 38: Container Freight Rates to Primary U.S. Polyethylene Export Destinations
  • Table 39: Cost Elements within Container Freight Rates
  • Table 40: Polyethylene Packaging Costs
  • Table 41: European Ethane Import Infrastructure Costs
  • Table 42: Reference Case Margins
  • Table 43: Low Case Margins
  • Table 44: High Case Margins

Figures

  • Figure 1: Steam Cracker Feedstock Sources
  • Figure 2: Steam Cracker Cost as a Function of Feedstock Weight
  • Figure 3: Ethane Feedstock Product Yield
  • Figure 4: Naphtha Feedstock Product Yield
  • Figure 5: Annual Production of Crude Oil in the U.S. 2008 to 2015
  • Figure 6: Composition of U.S. Gas Production
  • Figure 7: U.S. Shale Gas Production by Shale Play
  • Figure 8: Estimated National Average C2+ Gas Composition (1984-2012)
  • Figure 9: Ethane Monthly Production Forecast
  • Figure 10: Forecast for Ethane Production 2015-2025
  • Figure 11: Ethane Production Forecasts for High and Low Oil Price Scenarios
  • Figure 12: Ethane Prices versus Natural Gas Prices
  • Figure 13: U.S. Ethane Cracker Demand 2014 to 2020
  • Figure 14: Ethane-Production Capacity vs. Cracker Capacity
  • Figure 15: Ethane Price 18-Month Forecast
  • Figure 16: Ethane Price Ten-Year Forecast
  • Figure 17: Ethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
  • Figure 18: Ethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast
  • Figure 19: High Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
  • Figure 20: High Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast
  • Figure 21: Low Density Polyethylene Price Eighteen-Month Forecast
  • Figure 22: Low Density Polyethylene Price Ten-Year Forecast
  • Figure 23: Ethylene Production by Feedstock in U.S. 2012 to 2025
  • Figure 24: U.S. Ethylene Exports 2001-2015
  • Figure 25: Quarterly U.S. Ethylene Export 2010-2015 by Destination
  • Figure 26: Derivative Share of U.S. Ethylene Capacity
  • Figure 27: Gross Domestic Product Growth 2016-2025
  • Figure 28: U.S. Exports of Ethylene Polymers Growth Rate 2005-2014
  • Figure 29: U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to the American Continents
  • Figure 30: U.S. Export of Ethylene Polymers to Europe and Asia
  • Figure 31: Global Cracker Capacity by Region
  • Figure 32: Cracker Feedstock Composition by Region
  • Figure 33: Contracted Ethane Volumes by Trade Route
  • Figure 34: Price Premium for Ethane Carriers versus Conventional LNG Carriers
  • Figure 35: Time Charter Rates and Corresponding Return on Equity
  • Figure 36: Global Cracker Capacity by Region
  • Figure 37: Long Haul Ethylene Import by Region
  • Figure 38: Global Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2014
  • Figure 39: Regional Ethylene Trade 2010 to 2014
  • Figure 40: Ethylene Prices in Europe and Nonlinear Estimation with Interaction Term
  • Figure 41: Ethylene Price Forecasts
  • Figure 42: Ethylene Prices in Europe 2015 to 2025
  • Figure 43: Total Ethylene Trade vs. Brent Crude Price
  • Figure 44: Ethylene Carrier Fleet 8000-24,000 cbm
  • Figure 45: Global Polyethylene Trade
  • Figure 46: Polymers of Ethylene, Net Exporting Regions
  • Figure 47: Polymers of Ethylene Net Importing Regions
  • Figure 48: Liquefaction and Throughput Cost Benchmarks for U.S. Ports
  • Figure 49: Project Investment and Corresponding Throughput/USD/Ton Cost
  • Figure 50: Margin Flow Process
  • Figure 51: Domestic Feedstock Margin Calculations
  • Figure 52: Imported Feedstock Margin Calculations
  • Figure 53: U.S. Reference Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
  • Figure 54: U.S. High Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
  • Figure 55: U.S. Low Case Ethylene Export Margin Forecast By Feedstock
  • Figure 56: Ethane Margin Breakdown by Region

Appendices

  • Appendix 1: EIA National Average Natural Gas Composition Data
  • Appendix 2: Ethane Forecast Based On Natural Gas Liquid & Crude Oil Production (August 2015-November 2016)
  • Appendix 3: Annualized Production Of Ethane, Crude Oil, And Natural Gas Liquids (1000S Of Barrels) 1981-2014
  • Appendix 4: Crude Oil And Natural Gas Liquids Conversion From Quadrillion Btu To 1,000 Barrels/Year
  • Appendix 5: Report Estimation Methodology

Tables

  • Table A: Ethane Production and Estimates Produced by the EIA and Regression Model
  • Table B: Regression Parameters from Daily Data
  • Table C: Two-Step Methodology and Assumptions
  • Table D: Linear Model Parameter Figures of Merit for Significance
  • Table E: Regression Coefficient and MAE During Backward Stepwise Regression

Figures

  • Figure A: Actual (E) vs. Predicted Ethane (Ê) Production as a Function of Crude Oil and Natural Liquid Gas
  • Figure B: Ethane Forecast (August 2015-December 2016)
  • Figure C: EIA WTI Oil Forecasts by Case
  • Figure D: EIA Brent Oil Forecasts by Case
  • Figure E: EIA Natural Gas HH Forecasts by Case
  • Figure F: Ethylene Price in Europe (Orange Series) and Estimated Price Using Brent and Naphtha Prices in Europe
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