WiMAX 報告：固定＆行動解決方案的出現

WiMAX 報告：固定＆行動解決方案的出現 是由出版商Pioneer Consulting在2006年03月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含166 PAGES 價格從美金3800起跳。

簡介

目錄

Abstract

The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention and hype.

Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G work until the IEEE approved the 802.16e standard for mobile WiMAX in December 2005. Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or 802.16-2004) equipment in January 2006.

With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years.

The report addresses the following key issues:

• What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary?
• What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G?
• Which manufacturers are leading 4G development?
• How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level?
• What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under different penetration scenarios?

Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates, installations, and equipment sales.

This report should be of interest to:

• Fixed network operators
• Wireless network operators
• Wireless Internet Service Providers
• Equipment suppliers
• Component suppliers
• Venture Capital funds

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

• 1.1Technological Comparison
• 1.2Comparative Technology Costs
• 1.33G Market Overview
  • 1.3.1 Lack of Demand
  • 1.3.2 Other Challenges
• 1.44G Market Overview
  • 1.4.1 Demand for High-Speed Multimedia Services
  • 1.4.2 Fixed-Mobile Convergence
  • 1.4.3 Spectrum Issues
  • 1.4.4 Standards & Certification Issues
  • 1.4.5 Technological Challenges
  • 1.4.6 Alternative Applications for 4G
• 1.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
  • 1.5.1 Market Share Forecasts
  • 1.5.2 Manufacturer Strategies
  • 1.5.3 Network Operator Strategies
  • 1.5.4 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
• 1.6 Forecasts
  • 1.6.1 Mobile Markets
  • 1.6.2 Demand for 2G, 3G, & 4G (Fixed & Mobile)

Chapter 2 - Introduction & Methodology

• 2.1 Purpose of the Report
• 2.2 Report Scope
  • 2.2.1 Technologies Covered
  • 2.2.2 Geographic Coverage
  • 2.2.3 Companies Mentioned in this Report
  • 2.2.4 Report Structure
• 2.3 Methodology
  • 2.3.1 Data Sources
  • 2.3.2 Analysis
  • 2.3.3 Presentation of Results

Chapter 3 - Technology Comparison

• 3.1 Evolution of Mobile Technologies
  • 3.1.1 First Generation (1G) Mobile Technologies
  • 3.1.2 Second Generation (2G) Mobile Technologies
  • 3.1.3 Second Generation Enhanced (2.5G)
  • 3.1.4 Third Generation (3G)
  • 3.1.5 Fourth Generation (4G)
• 3.2 3G Wireless Technologies in Detail
  • 3.2.1 Standards Bodies
  • 3.2.2 Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS)
  • 3.2.3 High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA)
  • 3.2.4 CDMA EV-DO
• 3.3 4G Wireless Technologies in Detail
  • 3.3.1 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM)
  • 3.3.2 WiMAX
  • 3.3.3 WiBro
  • 3.3.4 Wi-Fi
  • 3.3.5 FLO Qualcomm
• 3.4 Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
  • 3.4.1 Technological Parameters
  • 3.4.2 Cost Comparison

Chapter 4 - Market Dynamics

• 4.1 3G Wireless Technology Deployment & Current Penetration
  • 4.1.1 UMTS
  • 4.1.2 HSDPA
  • 4.1.3 CDMA EV-DO
• 4.2 Challenges Facing 3G Wireless Technology
  • 4.2.1 High Costs
  • 4.2.2 Uncertain Demand
  • 4.2.3 Firmly entrenched 2G networks
  • 4.2.4 Pressure from 4G / advanced networks
  • 4.2.5 Technological challenges
  • 4.2.6 Slow demand growth
• 4.3 4G Wireless Technology Development Status
  • 4.3.1 4G Development Drivers
  • 4.3.2 4G Development Challenges
  • 4.3.3 Standards Update
• 4.4 WiMAX in Broadband Wireless Systems
  • 4.4.1 WiMAX in Fixed Broadband Wireless Access
  • 4.4.2 WiMAX in Wi-Fi Backhaul
• 4.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Wireless Technologies
  • 4.5.1 Quantitative Methodology & Assumptions
  • 4.5.2 North America
  • 4.5.3 Europe
  • 4.5.4 Asia Pacific

Chapter 5 - Major 4G Initiatives

• 5.1 Supply Side Developments - Manufacturers' Initiatives
  • 5.1.1 Classification of WiMAX Equipment Manufacturers
  • 5.1.2 Significant Manufacturer-Led Initiatives
• 5.2 Demand Side Developments - Global Trends
  • 5.2.1 Complemetarity vs. Competitivity
  • 5.2.2 Different Applications in Different Markets
  • 5.2.3 Pre-Commercialisation Trials
• 5.3 Current Developments
  • 5.3.1 WiMAX
  • 5.3.2 FLASH-OFDM & Qualcomm FLO
• 5.4 3G/4G Strategic Trends in North America
  • 5.4.1 Mobile Operators
  • 5.4.2 Wireless Internet Service Providers
  • 5.4.3 Wireline Operators
  • 5.4.4 Strategic Drivers
• 5.5 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Europe
  • 5.5.1 Mobile Operators
  • 5.5.2 WISPs & Wireline Operators
  • 5.5.3 New Entrants
  • 5.5.4 Strategic Drivers
• 5.6 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Asia Pacific
  • 5.6.1. Regional Heterogeneity
  • 5.6.2 OEM Leadership
  • 5.6.3 Market Segmentation
  • 5.6.4 Strategic Drivers
• 5.7 Conclusions
  • 5.7.1 Regional Similarities & Differences
  • 5.7.2 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
  • 5.7.3 Market Segmentation
  • 5.7.4 Pioneer's Prediction

Chapter 6 - Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis

• 6.1 Fixed WiMAX as Backhaul Technology in Mobile Networks: Market Opportunity Forecast
  • 6.1.1 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Techniques
  • 6.1.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
  • 6.1.3 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Market Opportunity
• 6.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Scenario Analysis by Region
  • 6.2.1 North America
  • 6.2.3 Asia Pacific
• 6.3 Bandwidth Demand Analysis: Network Requirements
  • 6.3.1 Bandwidth Demand Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
  • 6.3.2 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in North America
  • 6.3.3 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Europe
  • 6.3.4 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Asia Pacific

Chapter 7 - Conclusions

• 7.1 Comparative Technology Costs
• 7.2 4G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
  • 7.2.1 Drivers
  • 7.2.2 Constraints
• 7.3 3G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
• 7.4 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
  • 7.4.1 Global Themes
  • 7.4.2 Regional Themes
• 7.5 Forecasts

APPENDIX 1 - Assumed Mobile Subscriber Usage Patterns

• Exhibit 1.1: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
• Exhibit 1.2: Worldwide Growth of 3G UMTS Subscribers
• Exhibit 1.3: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
• Exhibit 1.4: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios
• Exhibit 1.5: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
• Exhibit 1.6: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
• Exhibit 1.7: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth ScenariosExhibit 1.8: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 1.9: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 1.10: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 2.1: Mobile Telecom Technologies Covered in this Report
• Exhibit 2.2: Countries included in Regional Analysis
• Exhibit 2.3: Companies Mentioned in this Report
• Exhibit 2.4: Forecast Data Available from this Report
• Exhibit 3.1: Evolution of Wireless Technology
• Exhibit 3.2: UMTS Architecture 3.7
• Exhibit 3.3: HSDPA Architecture
• Exhibit 3.4: CDMA 1xEV-DO Architecture
• Exhibit 3.5: Frequency Division Multiplexing
• Exhibit 3.6: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
• Exhibit 3.7: WiMAX Network
• Exhibit 3.8: IEEE 802.11 Specifications
• Exhibit 3.9: Typical Wi-Fi Network
• Exhibit 3.10: FLO Network Architecture
• Exhibit 3.11: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
• Exhibit 4.1: Worldwide Growth of UMTS Subscribers
• Exhibit 4.2: Regional Breakdown of UMTS Subscribers (December 2004)
• Exhibit 4.3: UMTS Network Status - Deployed
• Exhibit 4.4: HSDPA Network Status (Planned/Deployment underway)
• Exhibit 4.5: Worldwide Growth of CDMA EV-DO Subscribers
• Exhibit 4.6: Regional Breakdown of CDMA (2000 1x and EV-DO) Subscribers (December 2004)
• Exhibit 4.7: CDMA EV-DO Network Status
• Exhibit 4.8: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
• Exhibit 4.9: Evolution of WiMAX Standards and Applications
• Exhibit 4.10: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
• Exhibit 4.11: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
• Exhibit 4.12 Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in North America across Scenarios
• Exhibit 4.13: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
• Exhibit 4.14: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
• Exhibit 4.15: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Europe across Scenarios
• Exhibit 4.16: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 4.17: Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 4.18: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios
• Exhibit 5.1: Classification of Equipment Manufacturers
• Exhibit 5.2: WiMAX Forum Certified Products
• Exhibit 6.1: Gompertz Curve
• Exhibit 6.2: Fisher-Pry Model S-Curve
• Exhibit 6.3: Normal Distribution Curve & Equation
• Exhibit 6.4: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers
• Exhibit 6.5: Methodology for Estimation of BTS Units
• Exhibit 6.6: Trends in Average BTS cost (per unit) 2006-10
• Exhibit 6.7: Forecast Combined Mobile Subscriber Population in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10
• Exhibit 6.8: Forecast Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rate in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10
• Exhibit 6.9: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
• Exhibit 6.10: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
• Exhibit 6.11: WiMAX Penetration Scenarios in North America
• Exhibit 6.12: WiMAX BTS Installations in North America
• Exhibit 6.13: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in North America
• Exhibit 6.14: WiMAX Penetration in Europe
• Exhibit 6.15: WiMAX BTS Installations in Europe
• Exhibit 6.16: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Europe
• Exhibit 6.17: WiMAX Penetration in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.18: WiMAX BTS Installations in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.19: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.20: Comparison of WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios
• Exhibit 6.21: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers by Technology
• Exhibit 6.22: Optimal Mobile Application Bandwidth Requirements
• Exhibit 6.23: Optimal Bandwidth for 'Other' Future Applications
• Exhibit 6.24: Scenario Analysis of Forecast 4G Penetration Rates
• Exhibit 6.25: Assumed Usage Patterns for 2G, 3G, & 4G Mobile Subscribers
• Exhibit 6.26: Estimation of Total Bandwidth Requirement of an Average Subscriber
• Exhibit 6.27: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
• Exhibit 6.28: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
• Exhibit 6.29: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
• Exhibit 6.30: North American 2G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.31: North American 3G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.32: North American 4G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.33: Forecast North American 2G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.34: Forecast North American 3G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.35: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.37: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
• Exhibit 6.38: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
• Exhibit 6.39: European 2G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.40: European 3G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.41: European 4G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.42: Forecast European 2G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.43: Forecast European 3G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.44: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.45: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.46: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.47: Forecast Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
• Exhibit 6.48: Asia Pacific 2G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.49: Asia Pacific 3G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.50: Asia Pacific 4G Subscriber Forecast
• Exhibit 6.51: Total Asia Pacific 2G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.52: Total Asia Pacific 3G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.53: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
• Exhibit 6.54: Pioneer Forecast of Mobile Bandwidth Demand by Region and Technology 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario)
• Exhibit 6.55: Pioneer Forecast Exhibit 6.56: Pioneer Forecast Bandwidth Demand CAGR's by Technology and Region 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario)
• Exhibit A1.1: Usage Patterns for 2G Subscribers
• Exhibit A1.2: Usage Patterns for 3G Subscribers

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