全球新一代通訊：FttH及跨領域策略

Abstract

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the worldwide development of Next Generation Telecoms. It focuses on Fibre-to-the-Home developments and deployment, supported by market statistics and information on the leading countries. Trans-sector strategy is discussed, which is required to facilitate FttH development and a valuable case study on Australia' s proposed National Broadband Network is also included. The report provides insight into the issues surrounding regulating fibre access, drawing on developments from Europe. The report explores the concept of smart/intelligent communities and examines which cities are at the forefront of these developments. Brief regional information focused on FttH developments in North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific is also included.

• Next Generation Telecoms (NGT);
• Trans-sector strategy;
• FttH analyses and market statistics;
• Regulating fibre access drawing on developments in Europe;
• Case study of Australia' s National Broadband Network (NBN);
• Smart/intelligent communities and cities;
• Brief regional overviews.

• E-health, e-education, digital media and sustainability are the key reasons why developed nations need Next Generation Networks.
• Smart communities cannot be built from the current silo structure that dominates our thinking and require a holistic approach.
• In terms of FttH connections, Japan continues to lead the world with around 14 million homes and businesses connected.
• In terms of actual FttH penetration, South Korea leads with around 44%.
• Improvements in international fibre and other infrastructure in Africa are leading to a growing number of FttH initiatives.
• There has been substantial recent investment in next generation infrastructure in the richer countries of the Middle East. Some projects have been completed and others are moving forward rapidly.
• Russia accounts for over half of all Eastern European FTTx subscriptions.
• Reforms in New Zealand will create a number of Local Fibre Companies which will operate FttH access network infrastructure in specific geographic areas.

• This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
• The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
• All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Table of Contents

• 1. Next Generation Telecoms (NGT) - Focus On FttH
  • 1.1 Next Generation Telecoms and FttH
    • 1.1.1 Introduction
    • 1.1.2 A summary of NGT development in key markets around the world
    • 1.1.3 Fibre and NGT
    • 1.1.4 National Broadband Networks (NBNs) - brief case studies
    • 1.1.5 IP and NGNs
    • 1.1.6 Virtual Private LAN Service (VPLS)
    • 1.1.7 Unified Communications
    • 1.1.8 Conclusion: end-to-end connectivity for national NGNs
• 2. Trans-Sector Vision Key To FttH Development
  • 2.1 FttH deployment will depend on trans-sector strategies
    • 2.1.1 Introduction
    • 2.1.2 Global recovery program
    • 2.1.3 Global welfare depends on new thinking concepts
    • 2.1.4 Missing link: political leadership
    • 2.1.5 Smart cities and smart communities
    • 2.1.6 Trans-sector costing models
    • 2.1.7 Global cooperation
• 3. FttH Market Overview
  • 3.1 FttH market and statistics
    • 3.1.1 Introduction: FttH going forward
    • 3.1.2 Fibre-based access
    • 3.1.3 Leading markets
    • 3.1.4 FTTx market statistics
    • 3.1.5 FttH drivers
    • 3.1.6 FttH business models
  • 3.2 Regulating fibre access - focus on europe
    • 3.2.1 FttH and the financial crisis
    • 3.2.2 Introduction: FttH deployment overview
    • 3.2.3 Case study: Europe
    • 3.2.4 Structural separation
    • 3.2.5 Examples of open access
• 4. Case Study: Australia' s National Broadband Network (NBN)
  • 4.1 Australia - NBN overview and analyses
    • 4.1.1 Details of the NBN proposal
    • 4.1.2 National Broadband Corporation
    • 4.1.3 FttH infrastructure
    • 4.1.4 The business model
    • 4.1.5 Trans-sector thinking
    • 4.1.6 Regulatory issues
    • 4.1.7 Open network = innovation and affordability
    • 4.1.8 Co-development of fibre and the digital economy
    • 4.1.9 What' s next for Telstra?
  • 4.2 Australia - NBN critical considerations
    • 4.2.1 The National FttH Broadband Network
    • 4.2.2 Governance and Management of the NBN/NBC
    • 4.2.3 Regulations - critical considerations
    • 4.2.4 Wholesale
    • 4.2.5 Technology critical consideration
    • 4.2.6 Basic infrastructure
    • 4.2.7 Co-development of the digital economy
    • 4.2.8 Comments from international experts
• 5. FttH Required for Smart Communities
  • 5.1 Smart communities, buildings and cities
    • 5.1.1 Introduction
    • 5.1.2 Key components of smart cities
    • 5.1.3 Strategies for smart communities
    • 5.1.4 Brief examples of smart communities
    • 5.1.5 Intelligent/smart technologies and systems
    • 5.1.6 Intelligent Communities Forum
• 6. Regional Overviews
  • 6.1 North America
    • 6.1.1 USA
    • 6.1.2 Canada
  • 6.2 Latin America
  • 6.3 Europe
    • 6.3.1 Western Europe
    • 6.3.2 Eastern Europe
  • 6.4 Africa
    • 6.4.1 FttH in Africa
  • 6.5 Middle East
    • 6.5.1 Overview
    • 6.5.2 Israel
    • 6.5.3 The GCC countries
  • 6.6 Asia
    • 6.6.1 Japan' s New Generation Network (NWGN)
    • 6.6.2 Singapore' s NGN
    • 6.6.3 Malaysia' s national broadband network
  • 6.7 Pacific region
    • 6.7.1 New Zealand
• 7. Glossary of Abbreviations

TABLES:

• Table 1 - Worldwide unified communication products & service market value - 2007; 2012
• Table 2 - Estimated costs of fibre deployment in USA
• Table 3 - Fibre penetration per home passed in selected European countries - January 2009
• Table 4 - Proportion of fibre subscribers per home passed in selected European countries - January 2009
• Table 5 - European FTTx subscribers and homes passed - 2007 - 2008
• Table 6 - Worldwide top 10 markets with FTTx penetration >1% - 2007; 2009
• Table 7 - Worldwide FTTx subscribers - 2007 - 2008
• Table 8 - Worldwide FTTx share of broadband market - 2004; 2006 - 2008
• Table 9 - Worldwide FttH port shipments - 2007 - 2008
• Table 10 - Worldwide market share of FttH port shipments by technology - 2007 - 2008
• Table 11 - Free projections - Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
• Table 12 - Forecast fibre subscribers weaker and stronger scenarios in Netherlands - 2008 - 2011; 2017
• Table 13 - FttH homes passed and connected in USA - 2001 - 2008

EXHIBITS:

• Exhibit 1 - ITU definition of a Next Generation Network
• Exhibit 2 - Examples of countries with planned ICT infrastructure investment - 2009
• Exhibit 3 - IP-based enhanced services
• Exhibit 4 - Alliance to promote IP use in smart objects
• Exhibit 5 - VPN comparisons - key differentiators
• Exhibit 6 - Explanation: optical fibre
• Exhibit 7 - Broadband - infrastructure blueprint
• Exhibit 8 - Structural separation developments in Europe - 2009
• Exhibit 9 - Smart City - Masdar City, Abu Dhabi
• Exhibit 10 - Smart homes
• Exhibit 11 - Learning from e-cars
• Exhibit 12 - Status of RBOC fibre network build out - 2008
• Exhibit 14 - Differences between NXGN and NWGN
• Exhibit 13 - Structure of Singapore' s NBN - May 2009