Abstract
Overview
For those seeking high level strategic information and objective analysis on
this region, this report is essential reading and gives further information
on:
- Forecast growth in select telecommunication markets
- The emerging trends and convergence in Canadian voice, broadband and
digital TV sectors
- How Canada is faring in terms of global broadband development
- The current and emerging broadband technologies and their long-term
projections
- The growth of wireless voice and data and the deployment of 3G and 4G
technologies
- Key information on the major telecommunication operators
Key highlights:
- During 2008 overall telecom service revenues grew by an estimated 5% to
approximately $40 billion. The majority of the growth was accounted for by the
wireless and broadband sectors. In contrast, long-distance revenues fell by
approximately 10%. It is estimated that for 2009, wireless and broadband
together will account for over 60% of total telecom industry revenues.
- Competitors accounted for approximately 25% of telecommunication revenues.
Cable companies, in particular, will continue to make significant inroads into
local telephony markets as their cable telephony subscriber growth remains
strong. By end-2009 it is estimated that cable telephony will account for
close to 20% of total residential lines.
- Although wireless subscriber growth is forecast to be around 6-9% during
2009, wireless revenues are forecast to remain in double-digit growth,
underpinned by growth in data services such as SMS and MMS.
- By 2009 around 95% of Canadian households with Internet access used
broadband connections. However, in terms of overall broadband penetration, in
the last six years Canada' s position in the OECD has slipped from second place
to tenth place. In addition, in terms of prices, Canada' s broadband is ranked
the third most expensive in the OECD.
- During 2007 and 2008 BCE negotiated to be acquired by Teachers Private
Capital (the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and the US-based private equity
investment firms Providence Equity Partners Inc and Madison Dearborn
Partners), in a transaction that was valued at around $50 billion. However, as
a sign of the uncertainty created by the US financial crisis and the broader
global economic downturn, the purchaser withdrew on the eve of the deal' s
closure in December 2008.
- A significant outcome of the Advanced Wireless Services auction in 2008
was the decision by Bell Mobility and TELUS Mobility to jointly upgrade their
networks to GSM. This was due partly to the decision to move to LTE as a 4G
platform, but also due to the mandatory roaming agreements on which their new
AWS licences are conditional.
- Such an upgrade will bring their networks in line with Rogers' GSM
network, will give customers greater choice of handsets and will lower the
costs involved in switching between operators, thereby facilitating new entry
as well as greater competition between the incumbents. The upgrade, estimated
at $1 billion, will be shared between the two companies and will be a major
development for the industry in 2010. In mid-2009 SaskTel announced that it
too would upgrade to GSM and MTS Allstream is expected to follow suit.
- Despite strong growth in demand for digital TV services, and although IPTV
is an essential service in order for the telcos to compete in the triple play
market, the telcos have been relatively slow to deploy IPTV. By 2009 there
were five IPTV providers in Canada, namely Aliant TV, Bell TV, MTS TV, SaskTel
Max and Telus TV. Nevertheless the number of IPTV subscribers is estimated to
be less than half-a-million.
- The rate of IPTV deployment will be greatly dependent on the rate of
deployment of FttH and FttN networks. FttH is still largely limited to
Greenfield MDU developments. In addition, Bell' s earlier FttN deployment
targets of passing four million homes by 2008 have been pushed out to 2012.
Moreover, following an unfavourable CRTC decision in 2009, Bell may opt to
further delay its FttN deployment.
The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
- This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing
long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth
to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth
trend within this band.
- The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own
historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from
official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a
possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
- All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to
maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we
acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
Table of Contents
1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications market
- 2.1 Overview of Canada' s telecom market
- 2.2 Telecommunications infrastructure
- 2.2.1 National telecom network
- 2.2.2 International infrastructure
- 2.2.3 FttH and FttN
- 2.2.4 Cable HFC networks
- 2.3 Fixed-line sector
- 2.4 Broadband market
- 2.4.1 Overview
- 2.4.2 Cable modem and DSL
- 2.4.3 WiFi
- 2.4.4 WiMAX
- 2.4.5 Satellite
- 2.5 Internet and e-commerce
- 2.6 Convergence of digital media
- 2.6.1 Overview
- 2.6.2 Digital television (DTV)
- 2.6.3 TV-over-IP (IPTV)
- 2.6.4 Cable telephony and VoIP
- 2.7 Wireless communications
- 2.7.1 Penetration
- 2.7.2 Major operators
- 2.7.3 Wireless revenue drivers
3. Regulatory Environment
- 3.1 Overview
- 3.2 CRTC and Industry Canada
- 3.3 Regulatory issues
- 3.3.1 Overview of broadcasting regulation
- 3.3.2 Digital TV regulation
- 3.3.3 Proposed regulatory reform
- 3.3.4 Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC)
4. Major Telcos
- 4.1 Key highlights
- 4.2 Major ILECs
- 4.2.1 Overview
- 4.2.2 Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE)
- 4.2.3 TELUS Corporation
- 4.2.4 MTS Allstream
- 4.2.5 Saskatchewan Telecommunications (SaskTel)
- 4.2.6 VSNL International Canada (Formerly Teleglobe)
- 4.3 CLECs and other operators
- 4.3.1 Overview
- 4.3.2 Rogers Communications
- 4.3.3 Primus Telecommunications Canada
- 4.3.4 Look Communications
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
- 5.1 National telecom network
- 5.1.1 Overview
- 5.1.2 Wireline networks
- 5.1.3 Wireless networks
- 5.2 International infrastructure
- 5.2.1 Satellite networks
- 5.2.2 Submarine cable networks
- 5.3 Infrastructure developments
- 5.3.1 Overview
- 5.3.2 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH)
- 5.3.3 Cable networks
- 5.3.4 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
- 5.3.5 IP networks
- 5.3.6 Smart grid developments
6. Broadband Market
- 6.1 Industry overview and analysis
- 6.1.1 Broadband statistics
- 6.2 Cable modems
- 6.2.1 Overview and statistics
- 6.2.2 Major cable broadband providers
- 6.3 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
- 6.3.1 Major DSL providers
- 6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home/Node
- 6.4.1 Overview
- 6.4.2 Major fibre projects
- 6.5 Broadband over Powerline (BPL)
- 6.6 Wireless broadband
- 6.6.1 WiFi
- 6.6.2 WiMAX
- 6.6.3 Satellite
7. Convergence
- 7.1 Key general trends
- 7.2 Digital TV (DTV)
- 7.2.1 Overview
- 7.2.2 Market statistics
- 7.2.3 TV-over-IP (IPTV)
- 7.2.4 Cable TV (CATV)
- 7.2.5 Satellite TV (DTH)
- 7.2.6 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
- 7.3 Consumer electronics
- 7.3.1 High Definition televisions
- 7.3.2 PVRs/DVRs
- 7.3.3 Mobile TV
8. Wireless Communications
- 8.1 Overview of Canada' s Wireless market
- 8.1.1 Wireless statistics
- 8.2 Analysis 2008/09
- 8.3 Regulatory overview
- 8.3.1 Spectrum licensing
- 8.3.2 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
- 8.3.3 Rural digital roaming
- 8.3.4 System access fees
- 8.4 Wireless technologies
- 8.4.1 Personal Communications Services (PCS)
- 8.4.2 GSM
- 8.4.3 Third Generation (3G) wireless
- 8.4.4 Long-term Evolution (LTE) wireless
- 8.4.5 WiMAX
- 8.5 Major wireless operators
- 8.5.1 Overview
- 8.5.2 Rogers Wireless
- 8.5.3 Bell Mobility
- 8.5.4 TELUS Mobility
- 8.5.5 SaskTel Mobility
- 8.5.6 MTS Allstream
- 8.6 Wireless services
- 8.6.1 Prepaid and postpaid services
- 8.6.2 Text messaging (SMS)
- 8.6.3 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
- 8.6.4 Mobile TV services
9. Forecasts
- 9.1 Forecasts - broadband subscribers to 2015
- 9.2 Forecasts - Internet services to 2018
- 9.3 Forecasts - wireless market to 2013
10. Glossary of Abbreviations
TABLES:
- Table 1 - Country statistics Canada - 2008
- Table 2 - Telecom revenue and investment statistics - 2008
- Table 3 - Telecom revenue distribution by market sector - 2008
- Table 4 - Telecom revenue by category of provider - 2008
- Table 5 - Fixed-line statistics - 2008
- Table 6 - Major ISPs - 2008
- Table 7 - Internet user statistics - 2008
- Table 8 - Broadband statistics - 2008
- Table 9 - Wireless statistics - 2008
- Table 10 - National telecommunications authorities
- Table 11 - Fixed line revenues - 2002 - 2008
- Table 12 - Internet statistics - 2008
- Table 13 - Internet revenues - 2001 - 2008
- Table 14 - BCE operating revenue, net profit, CAPEX and subscribers - 2008
- Table 15 - BCE revenue summary - 2004 - 2008
- Table 16 - Bell Canada operating statistics per market segment - 2007 -
2008
- Table 17 - Bell Canada wireless and video ARPU and churn rate - 2007 - 2008
- Table 18 - Bell Aliant operating results and annual change - 2007 - 2008
- Table 19 - Bell Aliant operating revenue & annual change per market
segment - 2007 - 2008
- Table 20 - TELUS operating revenue, net profit, CAPEX and subscribers -
2004 - 2008
- Table 21 - TELUS wireless monthly ARPU and churn rate - 2004 - 2008
- Table 22 - TELUS operating results per market segment - 2007 - 2008
- Table 23 - MTS Allstream financial data and customers - 2007 - 2008
- Table 24 - MTS Allstream operating revenues by division - 2007 - 2008
- Table 25 - MTS Allstream wireless monthly ARPU - 2007 - 2008
- Table 26 - SaskTel financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2008
- Table 27 - SaskTel operational statistics - 2007 - 2008
- Table 28 - SaskTel wireless monthly ARPU - 2004 - 2008
- Table 29 - Rogers Communications operational statistics - 2007 - 2008
- Table 30 - Rogers Cable stores, subscribers and households - 2002 - 2008
- Table 31 - Rogers Cable financial data - 2002 - 2008
- Table 32 - Rogers Wireless revenue, profit, CAPEX, and subscribers - 2002
- 2008
- Table 33 - Rogers Wireless pre/postpaid subscribers, churn and ARPU - 2007
- 2008
- Table 34 - Rogers Media revenue, operating profit and CAPEX - 2004 - 2008
- Table 35 - Fixed lines in service and teledensity - 2000 - 2008
- Table 36 - Subscriber numbers of major cable telephony providers - 2005 -
2008
- Table 37 - Residential broadband subscribers by technology - 2001 - 2008
- Table 38 - Broadband penetration in top 10 OECD countries - 2001; 2006;
2008
- Table 39 - Broadband penetration in G7 countries - 2004 - 2008
- Table 40 - Cable modem subscribers by major operator - 2003 - 2008
- Table 41 - Rogers Cable average Internet monthly ARPU - 2006 - 2008
- Table 42 - DSL subscribers by major operator - 2004 - 2008
- Table 43 - Total television and digital households - 2002 - 2008
- Table 44 - Digital households: percentage by technology - 2003 - 2008
- Table 45 - DTH & major cable company TV subscribers & market share - 2007
- 2008
- Table 46 - Cable TV market operational overview - 2002 - 2008
- Table 47 - DBS subscribers - 2001 - 2008
- Table 48 - Wireless subscribers and annual change - 1997 - 2008
- Table 49 - Wireless subscribers by major provider - 2004 - 2008
- Table 50 - Wireless operator market share - 2006 - 2008
- Table 51 - Wireless provider market share by province - 2007
- Table 52 - Wireless industry revenue by service type - 2002 - 2007
- Table 53 - Top 7 licence winners of 2300MHz & 3500MHz auctions - 2004 -
2005
- Table 54 - Rogers Wireless pre/postpaid revenue and operating income -
2002 - 2008
- Table 55 - Rogers Wireless pre & postpaid subscribers, churn & ARPU - 2007
- 2008
- Table 56 - Bell Wireless revenue, subscribers, churn, ARPU, & annual
change - 2007 - 2008
- Table 57 - TELUS Mobility revenue, EBITDA, penetration and coverage - 2003
- 2008
- Table 58 - TELUS Mobility pre- & postpaid subscribers & annual change -
2007 - 2008
- Table 59 - TELUS Mobility ARPU and monthly churn rate - 2002 - 2008
- Table 60 - SaskTel Mobility revenue, subscribers, ARPU & annual change -
2007 - 2008
- Table 61 - MTS Allstream wireless revenue, subscribers, ARPU & annual
change - 2007 - 2008
- Table 62 - Prepaid subscribers by major operator - 2004 - 2008
- Table 63 - Post- & prepaid wireless subscribers & annual change - 2007 -
2008
- Table 64 - Text messages sent per month - 2002 - 2008
- Table 65 - Forecast residential DSL, cable & other broadband subscribers -
lower market growth scenario - 2010; 2015
- Table 66 - Forecast residential DSL, cable & other broadband subscribers -
higher market growth scenario - 2010; 2015
- Table 67 - Forecast residential DSL, cable & other broadband subscribers -
weaker market growth scenario - 2008; 2013; 2018
- Table 68 - Forecast wireless subscriber, penetration & revenue - lower
growth scenario - 2010; 2015
- Table 69 - Forecast wireless subscriber, penetration & revenue - higher
growth scenario - 2010; 2015
EXHIBITS:
- Exhibit 1 - Definition: ADSL and VDSL
- Exhibit 2 - Telesat current and planned fleet of satellites
- Exhibit 3 - Major submarine cables landing in Canada
- Exhibit 4 - Definition: FttH/FttP/FttB and FttN/FttC
- Exhibit 5 - Major fibre projects in operation
- Exhibit 6 - Definition: HFC cable
- Exhibit 7 - Major cable telephony and VoIP providers in Canada
- Exhibit 8 - Toronto Hydro, Google and smart metering
- Exhibit 9 - CANARIE Corporation
- Exhibit 10 - City WiFi - Toronto' s OneZone Wireless network
- Exhibit 11 - The Alberta SuperNet
- Exhibit 12 - Major IPTV providers
- Exhibit 13 - Major cable TV providers
- Exhibit 14 - Satellite TV providers
- Exhibit 15 - iTV service developments
- Exhibit 16 - VoD providers
- Exhibit 17 - 3G licence awards - January 2001
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