全球行動通訊市場：統計・動向・預測

Abstract

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the worldwide development of the mobile sector. Information at a regional level is also provided for the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The report includes analyses, statistics, forecasts and trends. It provides a comprehensive insight into the progress of mobile and examines the key issues and opportunities.

• Worldwide and regional mobile subscriber statistics;
• 3G market overview and statistics;
• Worldwide mobile ARPU and revenue;
• Overview of worldwide call charges;
• Mobile prepaid sector;
• MVNO market;
• Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) and Fixed-mobile substitution (FMS);
• Termination rates, Roaming, Mobile Number Portability (MNP);
• Mobile handset market overview and statistics;
• Regional overview.

• This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
• The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
• All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Table of Contents

1. Global Mobile Market: Growth and Trends

• 1.1 Global and regional mobile subscriber statistics
  • 1.1.1 Impact of financial crisis (2008/2009)
  • 1.1.2 Historical subscriber growth
  • 1.1.3 Other statistics and forecasts
• 1.2 3G market overview, trends and statistics
  • 1.2.1 The time for 3G has arrived, but no cheering from the operators
  • 1.2.2 Recent developments
  • 1.2.3 3G statistics and forecasts
  • 1.2.4 3G spectrum auctions
  • 1.2.5 Analysis: hard realities of the mobile market
  • 1.2.6 Analysis: 3G, still a way to go
• 1.3 Prepaid market overview, trends and statistics
  • 1.3.1 Prepaid mobile services
  • 1.3.2 Key prepaid trends and developments
  • 1.3.3 Worldwide prepaid subscribers and revenue
  • 1.3.4 Mandatory registration

2. Mobile Revenues, Rates and Charges

• 2.1 Mobile revenue, ARPU and call charge statistics
  • 2.1.1 Mobile usage and call charges overview
  • 2.1.2 Overview of global ARPU developments
  • 2.1.3 Overview of historical global ARPU developments
  • 2.1.4 Mobile revenue growth and CAPEX forecast
• 2.2 Termination rate, roaming & mobile number portability statistics
  • 2.2.1 Introduction: mobile competition
  • 2.2.2 Mobile Termination Rates (MTR)
  • 2.2.3 Roaming
  • 2.2.4 Bill and Keep model
  • 2.2.5 Number Portability (NP)
  • 2.2.6 Conclusion

3. Mobile Handset Market: Trends and Statistics

• 3.1 Market overview, trends and statistics
  • 3.1.1 Handset market growth
  • 3.1.2 Mobile handset statistics and forecasts
  • 3.1.3 Smartphones
  • 3.1.4 Handset supplier market shares
  • 3.1.5 Other trends and developments
  • 3.1.6 Safety and security issues

4. Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)

• 4.1 MVNO market overview, trends and statistics
  • 4.1.1 MVNO market overview
  • 4.1.2 Key MVNO markets
  • 4.1.3 MVNO analysis
  • 4.1.4 Market definitions

5. Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC) and FMS

• 5.1 FMC and FMS market overview, trends and statistics
  • 5.1.1 Introduction
  • 5.1.2 Fixed-mobile substitution (FMS)
  • 5.1.3 Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC)
  • 5.1.4 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)
  • 5.1.5 IP convergence the future anyway - analysis
  • 5.1.6 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA)

6. Regional Overviews

• 6.1 North America
• 6.2 Latin America
  • 6.2.1 Overview
  • 6.2.2 Mobile trends
  • 6.2.3 Competitive landscape
  • 6.2.4 Major mobile operators in Latin America
  • 6.2.5 Mobile forecasts
  • 6.2.6 Mobile technologies
  • 6.2.7 Prepaid services
• 6.3 Europe
  • 6.3.1 Growth and trends
  • 6.3.2 Mobile revenue, ARPU, call charges
  • 6.3.3 Mobile handset market
  • 6.3.4 MVNOs
  • 6.3.5 FMC and FMS
• 6.4 Africa
  • 6.4.1 Overview
  • 6.4.2 Pan-African mobile operators
  • 6.4.3 MVNOs
  • 6.4.4 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
  • 6.4.5 Fixed-mobile convergence
  • 6.4.6 Mobile handsets
  • 6.4.7 Community phones
  • 6.4.8 Prepaid cards
  • 6.4.9 Call tariffs
  • 6.4.10 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
  • 6.4.11 Mobile data services
  • 6.4.12 3G
  • 6.4.13 Market forecasts
• 6.5 Middle East
  • 6.5.1 Overview
  • 6.5.2 Market trends
  • 6.5.3 MVNOs
  • 6.5.4 Number portability
  • 6.5.5 ARPU
  • 6.5.6 3G
• 6.6 Asia
  • 6.6.1 Overview
  • 6.6.2 Hong Kong
  • 6.6.3 Japan
  • 6.6.4 Malaysia
  • 6.6.5 South Korea
  • 6.6.6 Singapore
  • 6.6.7 Taiwan
  • 6.6.8 Thailand
  • 6.6.9 China
• 6.7 Pacific region
  • 6.7.1 Australia
  • 6.7.2 New Zealand

7. Glossary of Abbreviations

TABLES:

• Table 1 - Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change - 1993 - 2009
• Table 2 - Mobile subscribers by region (historic) - 1993 - 2000
• Table 3 - Mobile subscribers by region - 2001 - 2008
• Table 4 - Worldwide market share of mobile subscribers by technology - 2008
• Table 5 - Top 20 countries ranked by mobile penetration - 2004 - 2005; Q2 2007
• Table 6 - Worldwide mobile phone penetration - 2008 - 2009; 2011
• Table 7 - Growth of worldwide 3G subscribers - 2004; 2006 - 2009; 2012
• Table 8 - Market share of 3G technologies - 2012
• Table 9 - 3G spectrum licence cost per capita - 2000 - 2001
• Table 10 - Market share of mobile subscribers using prepaid worldwide - 2006 - 2008
• Table 11 - Prepaid market share in selected developing markets - Brazil; India; China
• Table 12 - Number of prepaid subscribers worldwide - 2008; 2013
• Table 13 - Prepaid service revenue worldwide - 2005 - 2007; 2013
• Table 14 - Top 5 countries for monthly mobile minutes of use - 2008
• Table 15 - Comparison of cheapest charges for services basket - Finland, Sweden, Netherlands, Estonia, Norway, Denmark - April 2008
• Table 16 - Comparison of cheapest charges for services basket - Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Denmark, France, Great Britain - March 2007
• Table 17 - Rate per voice minute in selected developed countries - 2008
• Table 18 - Comparison of most expensive charges for services basket - Switzerland, France, Ireland - April 2008
• Table 19 - Monthly mobile broadband contract costs in Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Americas - 2007
• Table 20 - Leading developed countries by monthly mobile ARPU - 2008
• Table 21 - Worldwide average mobile monthly ARPU - 2005 - 2006; 2013
• Table 22 - Mobile data as a portion of mobile revenue in leading developed countries - 2008
• Table 23 - Monthly mobile ARPU of top/bottom 5 carriers worldwide - Q3 2006
• Table 24 - Worldwide mobile CAPEX - 2007 - 2009
• Table 25 - Worldwide mobile revenue - 2008; 2012
• Table 26 - Historical mobile termination rates (MTR) by region - 2005
• Table 27 - Worldwide mobile roaming revenue - 2000; 2007; 2012
• Table 28 - Average call charges abroad by region - 2007
• Table 29 - European roaming charges - 2007 - 2009
• Table 30 - Proposed European roaming charges - 2009 - 2012
• Table 31 - Top ten European SMS roaming charges - 2007
• Table 32 - Top ten European roaming charges per MB - Q3 2007
• Table 33 - Percentage of mobile numbers ported - Britain, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, US - 2006
• Table 34 - Worldwide mobile handset sales - 2006 - 2008
• Table 35 - Worldwide mobile handset sales and growth rate - 2004 - 2009
• Table 36 - Mobile handset revenue worldwide - 2002 - 2005; 2008 - 2009; 2012
• Table 37 - Handset supplier market share worldwide - top three suppliers - 2007 - 2008
• Table 38 - Handset suppliers' market shares - 1999 - 2008
• Table 39 - Worldwide MVNO subscribers - 2005 - 2006; 2009; 2013
• Table 40 - Worldwide MVNO services revenue - 2001 - 2006; 2009; 2012
• Table 41 - Europe - number of network operators, resellers and MVNOs - 2000 - 2007
• Table 42 - Year fixed-line access peaked in selected countries
• Table 43 - USA wireless subscribers, penetration and annual change - 2008
• Table 44 - Latin America mobile subscribers, annual change & penetration - 1998 - 2008
• Table 45 - Latin America mobile subscribers, annual change, & penetration by country - September 2008
• Table 46 - Forecast mobile subscriber penetration - higher growth scenario in select Latin American countries - 2008; 2013; 2018
• Table 47 - Forecast mobile subscriber penetration - lower growth scenario in select Latin American countries - 2008; 2013; 2018
• Table 48 - Latin America 3G subscribers - September 2008
• Table 49 - Mobile penetration by country in Europe - January 2009
• Table 50 - Total European mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 1997 - 2009
• Table 51 - Forecast European 3G subscribers - 2005 - 2013
• Table 52 - Prepaid proportion of all subscribers in European countries - September 2008
• Table 53 - Average voice and total mobile ARPU - Western Europe - 2006; 2012
• Table 54 - Mobile network operator ARPU by country in Europe - Q2 2008
• Table 55 - Data as proportion of total mobile revenue by country in Europe - Q2 2008
• Table 56 - GSM price basket - selected European countries - 2006 - 2008
• Table 57 - EU average mobile termination charges - 2004 - 2008
• Table 58 - European roaming charges - 2007 - 2012
• Table 59 - Ported mobile numbers as % of total by select European country - 2006 - 2007
• Table 60 - Mobile numbers ported, select European countries - 2005 - 2007
• Table 61 - Camera phone sales and forecasts, Eastern & Western Europe - 2005 - 2006; 2010
• Table 62 - Market shares of handset makers in Europe - 2004 - 2008
• Table 63 - Number of network operators, resellers and MVNOs in Europe - 2000 - 2008
• Table 64 - African mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 1998 - 2008
• Table 65 - Top 10 African countries by subscribers - June 2008
• Table 66 - Top 10 African countries by annual growth in subscribers - June 2008
• Table 67 - Mobile monthly ARPU in selected African markets - 2008
• Table 68 - WCDMA subscribers in Africa by country - June 2008
• Table 69 - Middle East mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration by country - June 2008
• Table 70 - Market share of 3G subscribers, in select Middle Eastern countries - 2006 - 2008
• Table 71 - Mobile subscribers in Asia - 1990 - 2008
• Table 72 - Mobile subscribers and annual change in Hong Kong - 1992 - 2008
• Table 73 - MVNO subscribers in Hong Kong - 2005 - 2008
• Table 74 - Total mobile numbers ported in Hong Kong - 1999 - 2008
• Table 75 - Prepaid and activated SIM cards in Hong Kong - 1997 - 2008
• Table 76 - 3G mobile subscribers in Hong Kong - 2005 - 2008
• Table 77 - Mobile subscribers and annual change in Japan - 1995 - 2008
• Table 78 - 3G mobile subscribers by operator in Japan - 2008
• Table 79 - Mobile subscribers, ARPU and churn by operator in Japan - 2004 - 2008
• Table 80 - Prepaid mobile subscribers by operator in Japan - December 2008
• Table 81 - Mobile wireless Internet subscribers in Japan - 2000 - 2008
• Table 82 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Malaysia - 1994 - 2008
• Table 83 - Mobile services revenues in Malaysia - 1993 - 2008
• Table 84 - 3G mobile subscribers and market share in Malaysia - 2006 - 2008
• Table 85 - Mobile subscribers in South Korea - 1994 - 2008
• Table 86 - WCDMA subscribers by operator in South Korea - June 2008
• Table 87 - Mobile market statistics in Singapore - 2008
• Table 88 - Mobile subscribers in Singapore - 1996 - 2009
• Table 89 - Mobile services revenue in Singapore - 1993 - 2008
• Table 90 - 3G mobile subscribers in Singapore - 2005 - 2009
• Table 91 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Taiwan - 1995 - 2008
• Table 92 - 3G mobile subscribers and market share in Taiwan - 2003 - 2008
• Table 93 - 2G and 3G mobile services ARPU in Taiwan - 2005 - 2007
• Table 94 - Prepaid 2G subscribers - market share in Taiwan - 2001 - 2007
• Table 95 - Mobile Internet subscribers in Taiwan - 2001 - 2007
• Table 96 - Mobile subscribers in Thailand - 1998 - 2008
• Table 97 - Mobile services revenue and ARPU in Thailand - 1998 - 2007
• Table 98 - ARPU for major mobile operators in Thailand - 2007 - 2008
• Table 99 - Mobile subscribers and annual change in China - 1995 - 2008
• Table 100 - Prepaid mobile subscribers by operator in China - September 2008
• Table 101 - China Mobile subscribers and ARPU - 1997 - 2007
• Table 102 - China Unicom GSM and CDMA subscribers and ARPU - 2002 - 2008
• Table 103 - Australian mobile subscribers, penetration rate & annual change - 1986 - 2011
• Table 104 - Australian 3G subscribers by operator - 2003 - 2009
• Table 105 - Percentage prepaid subscribers by operator in Australia - 2006 - 2009
• Table 106 - Blended ARPU by operator in Australia - 2003 - 2008
• Table 107 - 2G and 3G ARPU per month comparison in Australia - 2006 - 2010
• Table 108 - NZ mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate - 1995 - 2010
• Table 109 - 3G subscribers by operator in New Zealand - 2006 - 2009
• Table 110 - Percentage of prepaid customers per operator in New Zealand - 2005 - 2008
• Table 111 - Average monthly prepaid & postpaid ARPU by operator in New Zealand - 2004 - 2008

EXHIBITS:

• Exhibit 1 - Hutchison Whampoa
• Exhibit 2 - 3G deployment statistics - 2008
• Exhibit 3 - Growth drivers for prepaid mobiles in emerging markets
• Exhibit 4 - Examples of operators reporting high prepaid growth - 2007 - 2009
• Exhibit 5 - Roaming Regulation amendments - July 2009 - 2013
• Exhibit 6 - Number portability: key considerations
• Exhibit 7 - Examples of countries with mobile numbering plans
• Exhibit 8 - Examples of key MVNO customer segments
• Exhibit 9 - Europe - selected MVNOs and resellers - 2008
• Exhibit 10 - USA - major developments in the MVNO market - 2007 - 2008
• Exhibit 11 - Variables that affect MVNO development
• Exhibit 12 - Comparative characteristics of an MVNO
• Exhibit 13 - FMC services
• Exhibit 14 - Growth inhibitors for FMC
• Exhibit 15 - Examples of FMC implementations
• Exhibit 16 - Industry factors and drivers for suppliers to introduce FMC & FMS services
• Exhibit 17 - Implications for industry from FMC & FMS services
• Exhibit 18 - UMA examples from the telecoms industry
• Exhibit 19 - EC regulation amendments - July 2009 - 2013
• Exhibit 20 - Mobile carriers and their key resellers in Australia