澳洲的通訊市場分析:到2013年為止的主要趨勢

本報告提供澳洲的通訊市場相關調查分析，全球市場趨勢，全國寬頻與網路(NBN)， 國際寬頻運輸部門活動，行動通訊市場，行動寬頻，物聯網(Internet of Things)與雲端運算，智慧基本設備(電網/交通/城市/大樓)，數位經濟等，到2013年為止的預測和概要，為您概述為以下內容。

第1章 主要市場/產業分析

• 通訊市場:2012年過渡時期
• 通訊公司的未來
• 產業帶來的徹底變化
• 數位革命的社會/經濟上的影響

第2章 全國寬頻網路(NBN)

• 市場/產業分析:2012年
• 數位經濟

第3章 產業的發展

• Telstra的變遷分析:下一波的階段
• Telstra在競爭中壓力增加
• 二級市場概要
• NBN:市場預測(2015年，2020年)

第4章 行動市場

• 2012年的市場
• 行動寬頻:統計的概要與預測
• 頻譜寬頻公共事業的生命線

第5章 物聯網(Internet of Things)

• 全球概要
• 澳洲的發展

第6章 智慧城市，智慧基本設備

• 全球概要
• 澳洲的發展

第7章 語彙

圖表

Abstract

This annual publication provides analysis on the telecoms market moving into 2013 it includes forecasts, overviews and discussions on:

• Trends in Global Telecoms
• National Broadband Network
• International broadband and trans-sector activities
• Mobile communications market
• Mobile broadband
• The Internet of Things and cloud computing
• Smart infrastructure (grids, transport, cities, buildings)
• Digital Economy

Broadband infrastructure central to a $1 trillion economy

BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue passed the $40 billion mark in 2011, reflecting the mildness of the downturn in Australia compared with other countries. However, as was the case in 2011, growth remains very subdued in 2012. This is attributable to the continued decline in the fixed-line markets and the levelling off of mobile subscriptions, along with reduced pricing from operators attempting to attract increased market share.

Overall in 2011 fixed line revenues fell to around $10.5 billion across all operators.

Telstra still dominates the Australian telecoms market, although it received just under a 60% market share of total revenues in 2011, well down from the 80% market share it held in the early 2000s.

Optus's share of service revenues continues to stagnate between 20% and 22%. However its wholesale business had a market shift in 2011 and its growth suggests that, even with a subdued market, Optus's overall share could surpass 23% by 2013.

The Vodafone/Hutchison merger, along with the subsequent network issues, has contributed to that company's market share dropping however, the increasing network expansion could see Vodafone returning to its previous share of total industry revenue..

The second-tier market is making gains in broadband; and they are gearing up for IPTV, which will then be bundled into their other product offerings. Although the bundled market often results in a fall in overall revenues it generally maintains a higher ARPU. Further consolidation is happening in 2012.

The fixed voice market revenue is declining in the second-tier market, but so too are mobile and broadband revenues. Falling revenue reflects increased bundle value, as well as consumers moving away from fixed voice services, but this may also be a symptom of increased reliance on VoIP-based and naked DSL platforms in the second-tier market. Nevertheless overall revenues in second-tier mobile and data services (including internet access) continue to show growth.

The second-tier telcos' share of revenue has continued to grow since 2009, to just over 9% of total revenues by mid-2011. It is expected to increase slightly by 2013, to around 12%.

The fixed broadband market is still growing in size in 2012 and last year the percentage increase was higher than in the last couple of years. The increase in numbers appears to be coming from the continued drop-off in dial-up customers as they move to a faster and often cheaper service, plus the uptake by new customers.

Some key factors that have been contributing to the slow growth of this segment - eg, the hardware limitations in Telstra's street cabinets - will be removed during 2012 with Telstra's ‘Top Hat' program.

Continued strong adoption of services such as Ethernet and private IP in the business data market segment saw revenue growth of around 15% in 2011.

The mobile market, now worth more than $17.5 billion, continues to expand - up 8% in 2011. As well as growth in overall SIOs mobile broadband grows strongly, reflecting the high adoption rate of mobile broadband datacards, as well as new devices such as the iPad, Android phones and tablets and new iPhone devices.

Declines in the fixed market limited overall telecommunications market growth in 2010 to just 2.7%, and, with the expectation of further fixed market falls, subdued broadband growth and the likelihood of intense competition in the mobile market (which will inhibit ARPU growth), BuddeComm expects overall market growth to be limited to around 1%-1.5% in 2011 and 2012.

This report provides analyses of the major developments in the various sectors of the industry as they are occurring in Australia and around the globe.

The world is facing a significant number of challenges. The key problem associated with these challenges is a lack of smart government policies that are based on integrated solutions crossing sector boundaries. Political leadership from the top is needed if this is to be achieved. It is called the trans-sector approach, where silos need to be replaced with horizontal collaborative structures - and ICT is the glue needed to build these.

Australia is highly reliant on its income from natural resources and, like other resource-rich countries, it needs to diversify its economy. Interestingly, it is these resource-rich countries that are leading the rollout of FttH around the world.

The first NBN retail prices are looking very promising. Entry level charges are most competitive and according to BuddeComm this will see a 70%+ uptake rate once sufficient rollout mass is achieved.

It is becoming increasingly clear that only structural change can save the mobile industry. BuddeComm regularly brings this issue forward, similar to the discussion in relation to the structural separation of the fixed networks that we began just over a decade ago.

During 2012 BuddeComm estimates that the total mobile broadband market will generate revenues that are 17% up from 2010, the vast majority of which will be accounted for by 3G mobile broadband revenues. In 2011 growth continued across a range of platforms and technologies, with the use of 3G mobile and wireless broadband services growing by 70%.

According to Access Economics technologies in the key sectors of electricity, irrigation, health, transport and broadband communications would increase the net present value of Australia's GDP by $35-$80 billion over the first ten years of their deployment. An Ericsson report found that doubling the broadband speed for an OECD economy increased GDP by 0.3% - and a 10% increase in broadband penetration increases GDP by 1%. A Deloitte report found that today the value of the internet to the Australian economy rivals iron ore exports. The report found that the internet contributed $50 billion in 2010, equivalent to 3.6% of Australia's GDP, and predicted a growth of 7% over the next few years, to reach $70 billion by 2016.

Whether we are talking about smart cities, smart transport, smart grids, smart buildings or e-health - what is needed is good data that can be analysed in real time, allowing people and/or machines to make instant decisions in relation to issues such as energy efficiency, traffic situations, weather activities, and personal health, as well as commercial decisions. The infrastructure that can be used to link sectors together in a dynamic way is referred to as M2M or ‘the internet of things'.

The telecommunication industry is currently involved in a massive transformation. Since the arrival of the internet, the focus of the industry has shifted from providing defined end products to becoming a facilitator in the development of a range of new products, companies, and even new industries.

Telstra's transitional process clearly shows that it shares the vision that has been developed around the national broadband network (NBN). But not only that - the company is now emerging as a leader in the industry, putting its new approach into practice, with a focus on the customer, innovation and new business opportunities.

1. Key Market and Industry Analysis

• 1.1. Telecom Market - mid 2012
  • 1.1.1. The future of the telecoms industry
  • 1.1.2. Open systems lead to ‘economies of scope'
  • 1.1.3. Broadband is essential for social and economic development
  • 1.1.4. The gigabyte household needs FttH access
  • 1.1.5. The Internet Monopoly
  • 1.1.6. Trans-sector regulation
  • 1.1.7. NBN and the Opposition
  • 1.1.8. Will the half-built HFC disaster be repeated by the Coalition?
  • 1.1.9. Mobile competition starts to bite in Australia
  • 1.1.10. Are banks finally taking e-payments seriously?
  • 1.1.11. Healthcare - next sector on the block for e-transformation
  • 1.1.12. Tele-education - the quiet achiever
  • 1.1.13. Australia still waiting for in-store e-shopping
  • 1.1.14. Will infrastructure constrain the digital entertainment market?
  • 1.1.15. Smart connected TVs and online streaming are a threat to the pay TV industry
  • 1.1.16. Smart technologies challenging traditional energy scenarios
  • 1.1.17. The upcoming electric vehicle tsunami
  • 1.1.18. Who will dominate the IoT market?
  • 1.1.19. Digital Cities: digital dreams?
  • 1.1.20. Smart cities require holistic approach
• 1.2. Is there a future for the Telcos
  • 1.2.1. Telecoms market is transforming but the telcos are not
  • 1.2.2. Telcos lost the internet battle
  • 1.2.3. Telcos also lost the mobile content battle
  • 1.2.4. Next on the chopping block - the infrastructure
  • 1.2.5. So what is next for the telcos?
  • 1.2.6. IoT the next frontier
  • 1.2.7. Is bandwidth the new growth market for the telcos?
  • 1.2.8. Conclusion
• 1.3. Fundamental Changes to the Industry
  • 1.3.1. The spectrum crunch
  • 1.3.2. Mobile infrastructure becomes a fibre feed-in
  • 1.3.3. Industry consolidation is a must
  • 1.3.4. Market leadership no longer with the operators
  • 1.3.5. Mobile broadband: killer app for FttH
  • 1.3.6. Case study: Europe
• 1.4. The Social and Economic Impact of the Digital Revolution
  • 1.4.1. Politicians underestimate the digital revolution
  • 1.4.2. How governments lost the ICT plot
  • 1.4.3. Desperate need for government innovation
  • 1.4.4. Politicians should stop populist party politics
  • 1.4.5. Urgent need for smart policies and smart tools
  • 1.4.6. The need for Digital infrastructure
  • 1.4.7. NBN a blueprint for other trans-sector policies?
  • 1.4.8. Australia's international PV success story
  • 1.4.9. Citizens understand the crisis
  • 1.4.10. No progress without new trans-sector policies
  • 1.4.11. Conclusions

2. National Broadband Network

• 2.1. Market and Industry - Analysis 2012
  • 2.1.1. The NBN and the opportunity for ‘virtual' players
  • 2.1.2. Will infrastructure constrain the digital entertainment market?
  • 2.1.3. Waiting for the Coalition's vision for Australia's future
  • 2.1.4. Will the half-built HFC disaster be repeated?
  • 2.1.5. Four million households within reach of the NBN by 2015
  • 2.1.6. Digital infrastructure essential to manage the transition to the e-world
  • 2.1.7. Increased support for the NBN
• 2.2. Digital Economy
  • 2.2.1. The issue is the digital economy, not broadband - analysis
  • 2.2.2. National Digital Economy Strategy
  • 2.2.3. NBN Art grants
  • 2.2.4. Business participation on the NBN
  • 2.2.5. More education required to sell the NBN to business users
  • 2.2.6. Digital Inclusion

3. Industry Developments

• 3.1. Analysis of the Telstra Transition - The Next Phase
  • 3.1.1. Analysis of the reorganisation
  • 3.1.2. Analysis of Telstra's cloud coup
  • 3.1.3. NBN another step forward
• 3.2. Telstra puts pressure on the Competition
  • 3.2.1. Telecoms competition carnage on its way
  • 3.2.2. Low fares airline model for Telstra
  • 3.2.3. Consolidation and rationalisation expected
  • 3.2.4. Revenues under pressure
• 3.3. Breif Overview 2nd-tier Market
• 3.4. National Broadband Network - Market Forecasts 2015, 2020

4. The Mobile Market

• 4.1. The Market in 2012
  • 4.1.1. Mobile competition starts to bite in Australia
  • 4.1.2. Only structural change can save the mobile industry
  • 4.1.3. High demand for mobile broadband
  • 4.1.4. Mobile broadband - killer app for FttH
  • 4.1.5. Watch out for the next WiFi wave
  • 4.1.6. Spectrum key to broadband utility
  • 4.1.7. Mobile network operators overview
  • 4.1.8. Overview of trends and developments
• 4.2. Mobile Broadband - Statistical Overview and Forecasts
  • 4.2.1. Market overview and analysis
  • 4.2.2. Wireless broadband market statistics
  • 4.2.3. Forecasts and other developments
  • 4.2.4. Premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps
• 4.3. Spectrum Key to Broadband Utility
  • 4.3.1. Introduction
  • 4.3.2. City/slum developments in emerging economies
  • 4.3.3. Mobile broadband is national infrastructure (not just telecoms)
  • 4.3.4. Spectrum harmonisation and infrastructure-sharing
  • 4.3.5. Mobile broadband will stimulate investments in fibre networks
  • 4.3.6. Competition issue
  • 4.3.7. A comprehensive infrastructure plan is essential

5. The Internet of Things

• 5.1. Global Overview
  • 5.1.1. ‘Things'
  • 5.1.2. From SCaDa to IoT
  • 5.1.3. Sensors
  • 5.1.4. Change in services driven by sensing and monitoring information
  • 5.1.5. Who will dominate the IoT market?
  • 5.1.6. Building smart communities and smart countries
  • 5.1.7. Stage one - infrastructure
  • 5.1.8. Stage two - trans-sector policies
  • 5.1.9. Stage three - the business game-changer
  • 5.1.10. Application examples
  • 5.1.11. Staggering IoT predictions
• 5.2. Developments in Australia
  • 5.2.1. Market forecast 2015
  • 5.2.2. The first IoT statistics from Telstra
  • 5.2.3. Smart Australia
  • 5.2.4. Change in services driven by Sensing and monitoring information
  • 5.2.5. How do we get there?

6. Smart Cities, Smart Infrastructure

• 6.1. Global Overview
  • 6.1.1. Introduction
  • 6.1.2. Building smart cities to ease the stress
  • 6.1.3. Key components of smart cities
  • 6.1.4. Strategies for smart communities
  • 6.1.5. Global overview of smart communities
  • 6.1.6. Intelligent Communities Forum
• 6.2. Developments in Australia
  • 6.2.1. Smart cities, smart countries
  • 6.2.2. Gigabyte household
  • 6.2.3. Telstra's connected home strategies
  • 6.2.4. Intelligent infrastructure

7. Glossary of Abbreviations

• Table 1 - Worldwide smartphone operating systems by market share - 2007 - 2010; Q3 2011
• Table 2 - Top ten carriers worldwide by revenue - 2010; 2011
• Table 3 - Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU - 2004 - 2005; 2007 - 2011
• Table 4 - What does a better broadband service look like?
• Table 5 - Will better broadband increase your digital economy participation?
• Table 6 - What do you value in a broadband service?
• Table 7 - Total payments to be made to Telstra - 2012 - 2019
• Table 8 - Telstra subscribers by sector - 2005 - 2012
• Table 9 - Telstra - fixed line by sector and mobile voice minutes of use - 2005 - 2012
• Table 10 - Selected Telstra revenues by service - 2008 - 2011
• Table 11 - Selected second tier telco revenues by service - 2003 - 2011
• Table 12 - Second-tier telcos - revenue by provider - 2008 - 2011
• Table 13 - Second-tier telcos - relative market shares by selected providers - 2008 - 2011
• Table 14 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 2010 - 2012
• Table 15 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2010 - 2013
• Table 16 - Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change - 2007 - 2012
• Table 17 - 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator - 2007 - 2012
• Table 18 - Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes - 2007 - 2012; 2015
• Table 19 - Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change - 2007 - 2012
• Table 20 - Mobile broadband monthly ARPU - 2007 - 2012
• Table 21 - Estimated mobile data revenue revenues by mobile network operator - 2008 - 2012
• Table 22 - Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator - 2008 - 2012
• Table 23 - WiFi hotspots at its peak in the late 2000s
• Table 24 - Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues - 2008; 2013; 2018
• Table 25 - Worldwide connected devices

• Chart 1 - Overview of total payments to be made to Telstra - 2012 - 2019
• Chart 2 - Overview of Telstra services in operation by sector - 2005 - 2012
• Chart 3 - Overview of Telstra - fixed line by sector and mobile voice minutes of use - 2005 - 2012
• Chart 4 - Selected Telstra revenues by service - 2008 - 2011
• Chart 5 - Selected second tier telco revenues by service - 2003 - 2011
• Chart 6 - Selected second-tier telcos - revenue - 2010 - 2011
• Chart 7 - Market share size of NBN trans-sector market - 2020
• Chart 8 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 2010 - 2012
• Chart 9 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2010 - 2013
• Chart 10 - Overview of 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator - 2007 - 2012
• Chart 11 - Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes - 2007 - 2012; 2015
• Chart 12 - Overview of estimated mobile data revenue by mobile network operator - 2008 - 2012
• Chart 13 - Worldwide market share of M2M connections - 2011; 2020

• Exhibit 1 - Digital economy - key developments
• Exhibit 2 - Apple iPhone and Apple iTunes
• Exhibit 3 - Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel - April 2011
• Exhibit 4 - UMTS900 commercial network operators (3G) in Europe - 2011
• Exhibit 5 - UMTS900 commercial network operators (3G) in Europe - 2010
• Exhibit 6- Internet of Things - the next infrastructure inflection point
• Exhibit 7- Trans-sector vs. Cross-sector
• Exhibit 8 - Key applications of a digital economy
• Exhibit 9 - Round 1 funding recipients Digital Hubs and Digital Enterprise
• Exhibit 10 - Eligible round 2 communities Digital Hubs and Digital Enterprise
• Exhibit 11 - Digital local government program projects - round 1
• Exhibit 12 - Local councils added to the project in May 2012
• Exhibit 13 - Dharavi - a city in a city
• Exhibit 14 - Cows and the IoT
• Exhibit 15 - Smart shopping
• Exhibit 16 - Lifetime customer relationships
• Exhibit 17 - Many Eyes - e-science web site example
• Exhibit 18 - GigaPort and SURFnet
• Exhibit 19 - Smart City - Masdar City - Abu Dhabi
• Exhibit 20 - Smart Homes
• Exhibit 21 - Learning from e-cars
• Exhibit 22 - Example of trans-sector collaboration in a Smart City
• Exhibit 23 - Oncor (TXU) and the Current Group - Texas
• Exhibit 24 - Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) - California
• Exhibit 25 - Xcel Energy's Smart Grid City
• Exhibit 26 - Southern California Edison, California
• Exhibit 27 - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009
• Exhibit 28 - Smart shopping
• Exhibit 29 - Smart homes