Abstract
Overview
This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in
the Polish telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile,
Internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors.
Subjects include:
- Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
- Facts, figures and statistics;
- Industry and regulatory issues;
- Infrastructure;
- Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU, MoU;
- Internet, VoIP, IPTV;
- Mobile voice and data markets;
- Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless);
- Convergence and digital media;
- 3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015;
- Broadband market forecasts for selective years to 2020.
- Key developments:
Fixed-line revenue expected to fall to PLN5 billion in 2011; Polkomtel sold
for €4.56 billion; SMS use grows 7% in 2010; T-Mobile and Orange Poland
create network sharing joint venture; PTC rebrands as T-Mobile Poland;
regulator announces 2012 tender for LTE in the 2.50-2.57GHz and 2.62-2.69GHz
bands; regulator eases cuts in MTR in exchange for network investment; Liberty
Global consolidates cableco leadership with Aster City purchase;
Telekomunikacja Polska losing broadband subscribers yet expands new VDSL
Neostrada Fiber offer; ASO confirmed for mid-2013; bundled services taken by
2.1 million customers; 75% of cable association PIKE subscribers can receive
digital TV; Telekomunikacja Polska sells EmiTel for PLN1.7 billion; National
Broadcasting Council awards licences for the final four channels on the first
multiplex; regulator' s market data to end-2010, operator data to Q1 2011.
Companies covered in this report include:
Telekomunikacja Polska, Netia, Telefonia Dialog, GTS Energis, Exatel,
Telekomunikacja Kolejowa, PTK Centertel, Polkomtel, T-Mobile, P4/Play,
Centernet, Mobyland, UPC Polska, Vectra, Multimedia Polska, Aster, Cyfra+,
Cyfrowy Polsat, N/TNK, TVP.
Executive Summary
ASO in 2013 to release spectrum for rural broadband
BuddeComm' s quarterly publication, Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital
Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and
developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in one of
Eastern Europe' s largest and most competitive markets. It includes data for
the regulator' s 2010 annual report as well as operator data for the first
quarter of 2011.
As one of the ten countries which joined the European Union (EU) in mid-2004,
Poland was obliged to reform its telecoms market and align its policies with
those of the EU. Competition was introduced but the incumbent operator
Telekomunikacja Polska (TP) has retained a major share of the overall market,
and dominates most sectors. The fixed-line market has contracted due to
competition and the trend of fixed-mobile substitution: market revenue fell
PLN1.7 billion in 2010 to PLN 5.5 billion and was expected to fall to about
PLN5 billion in 2011, with the number of lines falling to 7.4 million from
eight million in 2010.
In common with many of its neighbours, Poland has been affected by the recent
global financial turmoil through declining demand for its exports, a slowdown
of credit activity, and lower foreign direct investment inflows. This slowdown
has been reflected in the overall telecoms market, which generated PLN 42.8
billion in 2010, a slight increase on 2009. Nevertheless, overall capex
undertaken by telcos recovered quickly, increasing 2% in 2009, year-on-year,
and by about 35% compared to 2005. Revenue was expected to show a slight
increase to 2012, largely on the back of the mobile and broadband sectors
which will compensate for falling fixed-line voice telephony revenue.
The country has a well developed mobile market with high mobile penetration
partly attributed to multiple SIM card ownership. There are some 21 mobile
operators, including six MNOs and a sufficient number of MVNOs to provide
effective competition in the low-cost sector. Competition together with
regulatory measures has resulted in the average price of domestic mobile
services falling steadily in recent years, including in 2010 a 25% fall in the
cost for voice calls, and a 5% fall in SMS messaging charges. ARPU has also
fallen due to lower retail tariffs and regulated MTRs and roaming charges.
Given the saturated voice market, MNOs have focused on launching tailored
offerings for particular market segments, encouraging prepaid users to migrate
to postpaid plans, and marketing mobile broadband services based on upgraded
networks.
Poland' s broadband market has developed rapidly in recent years as a result of
falling tariffs and large scale take up of services. Growth in largely the
result of the phenomenal increase in the number of mobile broadband
subscribers, which now makes up the majority of accesses. Overall growth is
expected to be steady in 2011 and 2012, with the majority of subscribers being
on mobile broadband plans. The FttX sector will also show significant growth
in a number of cities, which should reduce the number of DSL customers as
these are migrated to fibre networks.
DSL remains the most commonly available fixed-line platform. The incumbent' s
market share has steadily fallen as the improving regulatory environment in
relation to network access has given competitors alternatives through
bitstream access and LLU: in mid-2011 the incumbent had a 37% share of the
broadband market by subscribers, while Netia had a 13% share and UPC Polska a
10% share.
The fragmented CATV market is ripe for further consolidation: at the end of
2010 Liberty Global, owners o UPC Polska, bought Aster City, the fourth
largest cableco, while in early 2011 Vectra filed to take over part of the
cable business of the third largest player Multimedia Polska. In mid-2011
Vectra acquired the analogue cable networks in Bydgoszcz and five nearby towns
from Netia.
Market Highlights
- ASO has been confirmed for mid-2013, though satellite and digital cable TV
remain the most common form of receiving TV.
- The National Broadcasting Council has awarded licences for the final four
channels on the first multiplex. All four broadcasters are new entrants to the
market, and have established that they would not require investors or funding
after receiving their licenses. The move is a major step in the progression to
ASO.
- LTE, kick-started in late 2010, can potentially be developed in a number
of bands licensed thus far. CenterNet and Mobyland have migrated base stations
to LTE using the 1800MHz band, and aim to provide 60% geographic and 75%
population coverage. Refarmed existing G spectrum can avoid the costs
associated with new spectrum acquisitions, and so cost effectively extend
mobile broadband to rural areas in coming years.
- DVB-H mobile TV has not been successful thus far but there is much promise
in steaming TV with a number of operators offering services.
- FttX deployments remain low key though the government' s broadband policy
has provisioned for network infrastructure access to promote fibre deployments.
- UPC and other cablecos have upgraded their networks to the DOCSIS 3.0
standard, providing up to 120Mb/s. Multimedia Polska, Aster City and Vectra
also offer DOCSIS 3.0-based services. The higher data rate should help
forestall customer churn to FttX networks as they are built out in coming
years.
- Further market consolidation is expected in the cable TV sector as the
major operators buy out regional players, and so realise greater scale to help
upgrade networks and so fend of churn to fibre networks in coming years.
This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic
information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Poland.
It provides further information on:
- Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
- The impact of the global economic crisis;
- Telecoms operators - privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
- Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum
auctions and new license awards in 2010;
- 3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
- Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
- Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
- ARPU statistics and forecasts.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may
not be for the current year.
Table of Contents
1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications Market
- 2.1. Overview of Poland' s telecom market
3. Regulatory Environment
- 3.1. History
- 3.1.1. Telecommunications Act (2001)
- 3.1.2. Telecommunications Act (2004)
- 3.1.3. EU Regulatory Framework
- 3.1.4. Revised NFR
- 3.2. Regulatory authority
- 3.2.1. Office of Electronic Communications (UKE)
- 3.3. Telecom sector liberalisation in Poland
- 3.3.1. Local
- 3.3.2. Long distance
- 3.3.3. International
- 3.4. Privatisation
- 3.5. Interconnection
- 3.6. Carrier selection and carrier preselection
- 3.7. Access
- 3.8. Functional separation
- 3.9. Number Portability (NP)
4. Fixed Network Market
- 4.1. Market overview
- 4.2. Telekomunikacja Polska (TP)
- 4.3. Netia
- 4.4. Telefonia Dialog
- 4.5. Telekomunikacja Kolejowa
- 4.6. GTS Energis
- 4.7. Exatel
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
- 5.1. Fixed-line statistics
- 5.2. TP
- 5.3. Alternative operators
- 5.4. Wholesaling
6. Broadband Market
- 6.1. Fixed broadband market
- 6.1.1. Overview
- 6.1.2. Poland' s emerging Internet society
- 6.1.3. Fixed broadband statistics
- 6.1.4. Cable broadband
- 6.1.5. Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
- 6.1.6. Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
- 6.1.7. Wireless broadband
- 6.1.8. Mobile broadband
7. Digital Media
8. Overview of Digital Media market
- 8.1. Business models
- 8.1.1. Bundled services
- 8.1.2. EmiTel
- 8.1.3. TVP
- 8.1.4. Telewizja Polsat
- 8.1.5. TVN
- 8.2. Digital TV (DTV)
- 8.2.1. Broadband TV (IPTV)
- 8.2.2. Video-on-Demand (VoD)
- 8.2.3. Cable TV (CATV)
- 8.2.4. Satellite-based digital pay TV developments
- 8.2.5. Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
9. Mobile Communications
- 9.1. Overview of Poland' s mobile market
- 9.2. Regulatory issues
- 9.2.1. GSM licences
- 9.2.2. Third Generation licences awarded
- 9.2.3. Fourth GSM licence/fourth 3G licence auction
- 9.2.4. Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
- 9.2.5. Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
- 9.2.6. Roaming
- 9.2.7. Network sharing
- 9.3. Mobile technologies
- 9.3.1. Digital
- 9.3.2. Third Generation mobile
- 9.3.3. Fourth Generation mobile
- 9.4. Major mobile operators
- 9.4.1. PTK Centertel/Orange
- 9.4.2. Polkomtel/Plus GSM
- 9.4.3. T-Mobile
- 9.4.4. Centernet
- 9.4.5. Mobyland
- 9.4.6. Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
- 9.5. Mobile voice services
- 9.6. Mobile Messaging
- 9.6.1. Short Message Service (SMS)
- 9.6.2. Mobile data services
- 9.7. Mobile content and applications
10. Forecasts
- 10.1. Forecasts - fixed broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2013; 2020
- 10.1.1. Scenario 1 - higher broadband subscriber growth
- 10.1.2. Scenario 2 - lower broadband subscriber growth
11. Glossary of Abbreviations
LIST OF TABLES:
- Table 1 - Country statistics - 2011 (e)
- Table 2 - Telephone network statistics - 2010
- Table 3 - Internet user statistics - 2011 (e)
- Table 4 - Broadband statistics - 2011 (e)
- Table 5 - Mobile statistics - 2011 (e)
- Table 6 - National telecommunications authority
- Table 7 - Telecom revenue - 2008 - 2012
- Table 8 - Market share of revenue by operator - 2010
- Table 9 - TP interconnection rates - 2006 - 2009
- Table 10 - LLU as proportion of DSL lines - 2008 - 2010
- Table 11 - Numbers ported - 2009 - 2010
- Table 12 - Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers - 2005 - 2012
- Table 13 - Market share of revenue by operator - 2010
- Table 14 - Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010
- Table 15 - Market share of revenue, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010
- Table 16 - TP total retail lines and ARPU - 2009 - 2011
- Table 17 - TP Group financial data - 2006 - 2011
- Table 18 - Netia financial data - 2007 - 2011
- Table 19 - Exatel financial data - 2009 - 2010
- Table 20 - Fixed lines in service and teledensity - 2000 - 2011
- Table 21 - Wholesale lines by type - 2009 - 2010
- Table 22 - Cost of local loop unbundling and shared access - 2006 - 2009
- Table 23 - Broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2012
- Table 24 - Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2010
- Table 25 - Broadband penetration by technology - 2009 - 2012
- Table 26 - Workplace network usage by network type - 2006 - 2011
- Table 27 - E-education usage by individuals - 2007 - 2011
- Table 28 - E-education usage by businesses - 2007 - 2011
- Table 29 - Online purchases by individuals - 2005 - 2012
- Table 30 - Electronic sales as percentage of total non-VAT turnover for
non-financial sector businesses with 10 or more employees - 2009
- Table 31 - Uptake of e-government services by businesses - 2004 - 2011
- Table 32 - Uptake of e-government services by individuals - 2004 - 2011
- Table 33 - Internet users, subscribers and penetration rates - 2000 - 2012
- Table 34 - ISP market share - 2009 - 2010
- Table 35 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2001 - 2012
- Table 36 - Fixed broadband subscribers by data speed - January 2010
- Table 37 - TP broadband and IPTV ARPU - 2008 - 2011
- Table 38 - Netia broadband subscribers - 2008 - 2011
- Table 39 - UPC Poland subscribers - 2008 - 2011
- Table 40 - Cable market share of subscribers by operator - 2010
- Table 41 - TP ADSL subscribers - 2003 - 2011
- Table 42 - DSL market share of subscribers by operator - 2010
- Table 43 - Mobile broadband market share of subscribers by operator - 2010
- Table 44 - Mobile broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2004 - 2012
- Table 45 - Orange dedicated mobile broadband subscribers - 2007 - 2011
- Table 46 - Proportion of subscribers to bundled services by type - 2010
- Table 47 - TP Livebox customers - 2008 - 2011
- Table 48 - Netia financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2011
- Table 49 - Netia broadband and voice subscribers - 2010 - 2011
- Table 50 - Cable TV market share by operator - Mar 2011
- Table 51 - Cable TV subscribers - 2010 - 2011
- Table 52 - UPC - homes passed - 2003 - 2011
- Table 53 - UPC - subscribers by service type - 2003 - 2011
- Table 54 - Multimedia Polska financial data - 2009 - 2011
- Table 55 - Multimedia Polska subscribers - 2009 - 2011
- Table 56 - Multimedia Polska triple play subscribers by service - 2009 -
2011
- Table 57 - Cyfrowy Polsat financial data - 2004 - 2011
- Table 58 - Cyfrowy Polsat operational data - 2004 - 2011
- Table 59 - TP DTH subscribers - 2008 - 2011
- Table 60 - Mobile market revenue - 2009 - 2012
- Table 61 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 1995 - 2012
- Table 62 - Mobile market share of revenue by operator - 2009 - 2010
- Table 63 - Mobile market share of subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2010
- Table 64 - Mobile market traffic and annual change - 2009 - 2012
- Table 65 - Retail roaming charges, voice, SMS, data - 2010, 2012 - 2015
- Table 66 - Roaming traffic (voice, SMS, data) - 2007 - 2010
- Table 67 - Orange mobile revenue - 2010 - 2011
- Table 68 - Orange subscribers - 2007 - 2011
- Table 69 - Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU - 2008 - 2011
- Table 70 - Orange data ARPU - 2008 - 2011
- Table 71 - Polkomtel subscribers - 2009 - 2010
- Table 72 - Polkomtel financial data - 2009 - 2010
- Table 73 - Polkomtel annualised ARPU - 2008 - 2009
- Table 74 - T-Mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2011
- Table 75 - T-Mobile financial data - 2005 - 2011
- Table 76 - T-Mobile ARPU and churn - 2005 - 2011
- Table 77 - Ratio of prepaid to postpaid subscribers - 2003 - 2010
- Table 78 - Orange prepaid subscribers - 2003 - 2011
- Table 79 - T-Mobile prepaid subscribers - 2005 - 2011
- Table 80 - Polkomtel prepaid subscribers - 2005 - 2010
- Table 81 - SMS messages sent and annual growth - 2006 - 2012
- Table 82 - MMS messages sent and annual growth - 2006 - 2012
- Table 83 - Mobile data traffic - 2008 - 2012
- Table 84 - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario -
2010 - 2013; 2020
- Table 85 - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario -
2010 - 2013; 2020
LIST OF CHARTS:
- Chart 1 - Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers - 2005 - 2012
- Chart 2 - Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010
- Chart 3 - Market share of revenue, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010
- Chart 4 - TP Group financial data - 2006 - 2011
- Chart 5 - Netia financial data - 2007 - 2011
- Chart 6 - Exatel financial data - 2009 - 2010
- Chart 7 - Broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2012
- Chart 8 - Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2010
- Chart 9 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2001 - 2012
- Chart 10 - UPC Poland subscribers - 2008 - 2011
- Chart 11 - Netia financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2011
- Chart 12 - UPC - subscribers by service type - 2003 - 2011
- Chart 13 - Multimedia Polska financial data - 2009 - 2011
- Chart 14 - Multimedia Polska subscribers - 2009 - 2011
- Chart 15 - Cyfrowy Polsat financial data - 2004 - 2011
- Chart 16 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 2000 - 2012
- Chart 17 - Orange subscribers - 2007 - 2011
- Chart 18 - Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU - 2008 - 2011
- Chart 19 - Polkomtel subscribers - 2009 - 2010
- Chart 20 - Polkomtel financial data - 2009 - 2010
- Chart 21 - T-Mobile financial data - 2005 - 2011
LIST OF EXHIBITS:
- Exhibit 1 - The EU Regulatory Framework for communications
- Exhibit 2 - Access, the local loop and unbundling - an overview
- Exhibit 3 - 2G spectrum awarded in Poland
- Exhibit 4 - BlackBerry services defined
