Abstract
Report Description
This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in
selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line,
internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 23 countries across Asia. It
is noted that our report has mainly focused on developing economies in the
region where the main segments of the markets are more often than not in their
early subscriber growth phases.
The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan,
Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan,
Kazakhstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea,
Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
Executive Summary
No stopping mobile subscriber growth and internet connectivity
The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By
describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect
subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the
most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are
summarised in a series of tables.
Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical information,
together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and
non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible
deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are
quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At
the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
Background notes to market forecasts
Mobile markets in Asia have continued experiencing strong growth during 2010.
A total of more than 2.6 billion mobile subscribers in early 2011 and an
average annual growth of over 25% (excluding the most highly penetrated
markets) have combined to see the Asia region with the fastest growing
telecommunications markets in the world. With difficult economic conditions
and some markets saturating it is not surprising that the growth rate has
slowed somewhat over the last year or so. This is after a period where annual
mobile subscriber growth rates in Asia had been well in excess of 50%. Overall
regional penetration had reached an estimated 65% by end-2010, suggesting that
there was still more room for subscriber growth across the region. Coming into
2011 there were more than 12 countries in Asia with mobile penetration levels
in excess of 100%. Not surprisingly, the global financial crisis had caused
some caution in mobile markets across the region for a while, mainly in 2009;
after a pause the momentum has quickly begun to pick up again.
Particularly relevant in the context of rapidly growing markets that still
have some further room for expansion are India and China where monthly net
additions have regularly been close to 10 million subscribers. These two
countries combined account for around 60% of overall market share in the
Asia-Pacific region. There is still room for substantial growth throughout the
region and we can expect markets with large populations and relatively low
penetration rates such as India, China, Philippines, Pakistan and Indonesia
will continue to grow at a healthy pace. Growth is being driven by various
factors, including government investment to drive the economy; infrastructure
building or fixing the after-effects of war as well as major foreign
investment projects.
In terms of growth rates, not surprisingly it is the smaller and generally
less-developed markets that have been expanding rapidly. More recently, the
rate of growth has clearly been much cooler than back in 2007, however; in
that year there were seven countries in Asia with annual growth rates in
excess of 90%. By 2010 there were no markets with growth rates in excess of
100% (North Korea came in at around 96%). In the developing economies, quick
and easy mobile uptake has for a long time been the preferred, and often the
only, option for subscribers, given the low levels of fixed-line deployments.
In order to prevent ARPU slide in these markets, operators are offering value
added mobile services such as mobile banking, remittance payments and mobile
health services that take advantage of lack of access by the poor to social
infrastructure such as banks and hospitals.
Market competition has driven handset prices and airtime tariffs downward,
thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate of adoption of
wireless Internet has started to rise with the overall increase in mobile
penetration together with networks being progressively upgraded to next
generation platforms. While 3G licensing and the ongoing launch of 3G services
in Asia has certainly been promoting the growth of wireless data services, 3G
has also been providing opportunities for both wireless access and content
providers in domestic markets. In South Asia, in particular, more people own a
mobile phone than a PC, giving the delivery of mobile data services huge
potential there.
The growth of mobile Internet across Asia is being largely driven by
competition in the market place and has been boosted by the advent of 3G+
services. Market competition has been driving handset prices and airtime
tariffs downward, thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate
of adoption of wireless Internet was expected to rise with the overall
increase in mobile penetration and as networks are upgraded. LTE is also
rolling out in the more mature markets such as Japan which already has close
to 100% 3G penetration.
Asia makes a strong claim to be leading the world when it comes to the
development of broadband Internet. In fact, after the mobile market, broadband
has been the fastest growing telecom market segment in Asia. The energetic
expansion of broadband has been more of a phenomenon in the developed
economies, with narrowband access continuing to be the norm in most of the
poorer developing countries of the region. This is changing, however. With DSL
dominating the world market, Asia has become the leading region with about 35%
of the global DSL subscribers. More recently, we have seen FttX as an
alternative platform for broadband access in Asia. In the leading technology
markets of Japan and South Korea and Taiwan in 2011, FttX has been displacing
other forms of high speed Internet access. Asia accounts for around 85% of
global FttX subscriptions and China dominates the lead with over 30 million
subscribers.
Although there are broad market commonalities, there are trends that are
specific to each country in Asia Pacific depending on the level of technology
adoption and the presence of government intervention and competition.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may
not be for the current year.
Table of Contents
1. Afghanistan
- 1.1 Overview
- 1.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 1.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 1.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
2. Azerbaijan
- 2.1 Overview
- 2.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2010; 2015; 2020
- 2.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2010; 2015; 2020
- 2.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2010; 2015; 2020
3. Bangladesh
- 3.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 3.2 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 3.3 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
4. Cambodia
- 4.1 Overview
- 4.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 4.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 4.4 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
5. China
- 5.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.2 Forecast Internet users - 2010 - 2011; 2014
- 5.3 Forecast broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.4 Forecast FttX subscribers - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.5 IPTV forecasts
- 5.6 Cable TV market forecasts - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.7 Digital cable TV market forecasts - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.8 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 5.9 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers 2010 - 2011; 2015
6. Georgia
- 6.1 Overview
- 6.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 6.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 6.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
7. Hong Kong
- 7.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
- 7.2 Forecast mobile subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
8. India
- 8.1 Overview
- 8.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 8.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 8.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
9. Indonesia
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market 2015; 2020
- 9.3 Forecasts - Internet services 2015; 2020
- 9.4 Forecasts - mobile market 2015; 2020
10. Japan
- 10.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2011 - 2012; 2016
- 10.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- 10.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- 10.4 Forecast Mobile subscribers: 2010 - 2012; 2016
11. Kazakhstan
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 11.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 11.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
12. Laos
- 12.1 Overview
- 12.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 12.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 12.4 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
13. Macau
- 13.1 Forecast mobile subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
14. Malaysia
- 14.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 14.2 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 14.3 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Nepal
- 15.1 Overview
- 15.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 15.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 15.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
16. Pakistan
- 16.1 Overview
- 16.2 Forecast - fixed line market - 2015; 2020
- 16.3 Forecasts - Internet market - 2015; 2020
- 16.4 Forecast - mobile market - 2015; 2020
17. Philippines
- 17.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 17.2 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 17.3 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
18. South Korea
- 18.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 18.2 Forecast internet users - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 18.3 Forecast broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- 18.4 Forecast: Mobile subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2015
19. Sri Lanka
- 19.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 19.2 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 19.3 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
20. Taiwan
- 20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2011; 2016
- 20.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers - 2011; 2016
- 20.3 Forecast FttX subscribers - 2011; 2016
- 20.4 Forecast total mobile subscribers - 2011; 2016
- 20.5 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers - 2011; 2016
21. Thailand
- 21.1 Overview
- 21.2 Forecasts - fixed lines - 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
- 21.3 Forecasts - Internet subscribers - 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
- 21.4 Forecasts - mobile subscribers - 2000 - 2008; 2013; 2018
22. Uzbekistan
- 22.1 Overview
- 22.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 22.3 Forecasts - Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- 22.4 Forecasts - mobile market - 2015; 2020
23. Vietnam
- 23.1 Overview
- 23.2 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 23.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020
- 23.4 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
24. Glossary of Abbreviations
LIST OF TABLES:
- Table 1 - Afghanistan - forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 2 - Afghanistan - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 3 - Afghanistan - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 4 - Azerbaijan - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 5 - Azerbaijan - forecast Internet subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 6 - Azerbaijan - forecast mobile subscribers - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 7 - Bangladesh - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 8 - Bangladesh - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 9 - Bangladesh - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 10 - Cambodia - forecast fixed-line growth - 2015; 2020
- Table 11 - Cambodia - forecast Internet subscriber growth - 2015; 2020
- Table 12 - Cambodia - forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2015; 2020
- Table 13 - China - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 14 - China - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 15 - China - forecast Internet users and penetration - lower band:
2010 - 2011; 2014
- Table 16 - China - forecast Internet users and penetration - higher band:
2010 - 2011; 2014
- Table 17 - China - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 18 - China - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher
band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 19 - China - forecast FttX subscribers and penetration: 2010 - 2011;
2015
- Table 20 - China - forecast cable TV subscribers and household
penetration: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 21 - China - forecast digital cable TV subscribers and percentage of
cable TV subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 22 - China - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band
forecast - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 23 - China - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band
forecast - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 24 - China - forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile
market - 2010 - 2011, 2015
- Table 25 - Georgia - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 26 - Georgia - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 27 - Georgia - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 28 - Hong Kong - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration -
lower band - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 29 - Hong Kong - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration -
higher band - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 30 - Hong Kong - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower
band forecast - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 31 - Hong Kong - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher
band forecast - 2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 32 - India - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates -
2015; 2020
- Table 33 - India - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 34 - India - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 35 - Indonesia - forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration
rates - 2015; 2020
- Table 36 - Indonesia - forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration
rates - 2015; 2020
- Table 37 - Indonesia - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates -
2015; 2020
- Table 38 - Japan - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2012; 2016
- Table 39 - Japan - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2012; 2016
- Table 40 - Japan - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
- Table 41 - Japan - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher
band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
- Table 42 - Japan - forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band:
2009 - 2011; 2016
- Table 43 - Japan - forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher
band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
- Table 44 - Japan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band
forecast - 2010 - 2012; 2016
- Table 45 - Japan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band
forecast - 2010 - 2012; 2016
- Table 46 - Kazakhstan - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration
rates - 2015; 2020
- Table 47 - Kazakhstan - forecast Internet subscribers and penetration
rates - 2015; 2020
- Table 48 - Kazakhstan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates
- 2015; 2020
- Table 49 - Laos - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates -
2015; 2020
- Table 50 - Laos - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 51 - Laos - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 52 - Macau - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate -
2010; 2015; 2020
- Table 53 - Malaysia - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 54 - Malaysia - forecast broadband Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 55 - Malaysia - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 56 - Nepal' s GDP growth - 2005 - 2010
- Table 57 - Nepal - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 58 - Nepal - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 59 - Nepal - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 60 - Pakistan - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 61 - Pakistan - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 62 - Pakistan - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 63 - Philippines - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 64 - Philippines - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 65 - Philippines - forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 66 - South Korea - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration -
lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 67 - South Korea - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 68 - South Korea - forecast internet users and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 69 - South Korea - forecast internet users and penetration - higher
band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 70 - South Korea - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 71 - South Korea - forecast broadband subscribers and penetration -
lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 72 - South Korea - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower
band forecast - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 73 - South Korea - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration
higher band forecast - 2010 - 2011; 2015
- Table 74 - Sri Lanka - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration
rate - 2015; 2020
- Table 75 - Sri Lanka - forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rate
- 2015; 2020
- Table 76 - Sri Lanka - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate -
2015; 2020
- Table 77 - Taiwan - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 78 - Taiwan - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration -
lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 79 - Taiwan - forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration -
lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 80 - Taiwan - forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 81 - Taiwan - forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 82 - Taiwan - forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher
band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 83 - Taiwan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 84 - Taiwan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - higher
band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 85 - Taiwan - forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower
band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 86 - Taiwan - forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration -
higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
- Table 87 - Thailand - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate
- 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
- Table 88 - Thailand - forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rate -
2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
- Table 89 - Thailand - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate -
2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
- Table 90 - Uzbekistan - forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration
rates - 2015; 2020
- Table 91 - Uzbekistan - forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
- Table 92 - Uzbekistan - forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates
- 2015; 2020
- Table 93 - Vietnam - forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates
- 2015; 2020
- Table 94 - Vietnam - forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rates -
2015; 2020
