澳洲通信市場分析：NBN改變了通信市場

本報告已在2011年08月01日停止出版。

更改為出版

澳洲通信市場分析：2012年為止的主要動向

Australian Telecoms Market Analysis - Top Trends into 2012

出版日期 : 2011年07月

商品編碼: 206675

簡介

本報告書為關於澳洲通信市場的NBN(全國寬頻網路）概要、國際寬頻以及轉換器領域活動之分析、行動裝置通信市場、智慧電網基礎設施、數位媒體、付費TV播放等的新市場機會之分析，概述如下。

第1章 通信市場分析:2010年後半

• 產業分析
• 市場分析
• 總市場規模

第2章 NBN(National Broadband Network・全國寬頻網路)

• 概要以及分析
• 選舉後的NBN
• NBN與Telstra公司
• 立於岐路的產業

第3章 轉換器領域與方法

• 轉換器領域模式中的NBN
• BuddeComms國際寬頻以及轉換器領域活動

第4章 行動裝置通信

• 行動產業分析(2010年)
• 行動寬頻市場

第5章 智慧型的基礎設施

• 邁向2011年的智慧電網
• 聰明的輸送系統
• 智慧程式、智慧大樓、智慧社群

第6章　數位媒體

• 社群網路

第7章　播放以及付費TV市場

• 概要以及分析

第8章 略語集

圖表

目錄

Abstract

Report Description

This annual publication provides analysis on the telecoms market in 2010, forecasts, overview and discussion on:

• National Broadband Network
• International broadband and trans-sector activities
• Mobile communications market
• Mobile data
• Smart grid infrastructure
• Social networks
• Broadcasting and pay TVResearcher: Paul Budde, Kylie Wansink
• Current publication date:- November 2010 (23rd Edition)
• Next publication date:- November 2011

Executive Summary

NBN full steam ahead the industry is preparing itself for the National Broadband Network. While it will be several years before the full impact of the NBN is felt, it will also take several years to change the industry. Companies will have to reorganize themselves around new markets such as infrastructure and construction middleware such as data centers, content hosting, cloud computing and OSS/BSS retail. This reorganization and repositioning is already noticeable in current market activities, where the focus is moving from ARPU to market share. Customer bases are becoming very valuable and more companies will want to do business with their customers through digital services. The telcos and ISPs are positioning themselves as attractive partners for such developments. While the federal election was a cliff-hanger it was clear that the majority of Australians supported the NBN. Surveys indicated over 70% support of the NBN among voters. It is now full steam ahead with the NBN and there will be significant pressure on two areas: NBN Co will have to roll out quickly, and the minister who has been placed in charge must ensure that most, if not all, of the 30+ rollout projects have trans-sector pilots attached to them, so as to warrant government investment. By 2013 the network should be reaching 30%-40% penetration. The aim is that by that time the NBN will have become irreversible.

Market highlights:

• Prices in mobile and fixed broadband have dropped significantly during 2010 as operators try to win as many customers as possible.
• With the election over it is now full steam ahead for NBN Co. A good reason to expect fast progress is that by the next election, some time in 2013, the NBN needs to be of sufficient size to ensure that it can' t be scrapped if the Opposition gets into power.
• NBN Co is initially structured with the government as the majority shareholder and private investors as minority partners. The government plans an initial investment of $4.7 billion and envisages that the company will invest up to $43 billion over an eight-year period.
• Over the last 12 months the whole trans-sector environment has already changed because of the National Broadband Network. Sectors are now tabling plans that have been on their shelves for many years.
• We have already seen changes in Telstra' s position in relation to the NBN. There is the in-principle, rather lucrative, Heads of Agreement with NBN Co; and the company has indicated that it is on a path of transformation.
• Total mobile services revenue is expected to grow to above $15 billion in 2011, representing a growth rate of around 10%.
• The merger of Vodafone and 3 in 2009 was set to lead to stronger infrastructure-based competition for mobile broadband in 2010 and 2011.
• In September 2010 the number of users of the social networking sites continues to grow, with over 9 million Facebook users and over 2.5 million twitter users. This rise in users continues the trend from 2009 where Australians interacting with brands via social networks jumped by more than 60%.
• By mid-2010 pay TV penetration had only reached 34% and growth is expected to increase slowly and modestly to around 35% by 2011.

Table of Contents

1. Analysis - Telecoms Market Late-2010

• 1.1 Industry analysis
  • 1.1.1 Introduction
  • 1.1.2 Industry tracking towards a new future
  • 1.1.3 Telstra agreement is setting the scene
  • 1.1.4 Other players will have to follow
  • 1.1.5 M&As will be on the way
  • 1.1.6 Old model still has some life in it
  • 1.1.7 Penetration, not ARPU, is the key to success
• 1.2 Market analysis
  • 1.2.1 The market in 2010
  • 1.2.2 New business models are required
  • 1.2.3 Triple play business models
  • 1.2.4 VoIP added to naked DSL
  • 1.2.5 Internet media companies
  • 1.2.6 Mobile market
• 1.3 Overall size of the market
  • 1.3.1 Total broadband subscribers
  • 1.3.2 Subscribers by major providers/technology
  • 1.3.3 Market shares - 2010

2. National Broadband Network

• 2.1 Overview and analysis
  • 2.1.1 Overview of the National Broadband Network (NBN) plan
  • 2.1.2 Implementation issues
  • 2.1.3 Socio-economic benefits
  • 2.1.4 Regional broadband
  • 2.1.5 Where is the user in all of this?
  • 2.1.6 Analysis of developments during 2009 and 2010
  • 2.1.7 Opposition broadband policies
• 2.2 NBN after the election
  • 2.2.1 NBN Co is building the business model
  • 2.2.2 NBN rollouts need to include trans-sector projects
  • 2.2.3 NBN spotlight now moving towards Telstra
  • 2.2.4 More NBN infrastructure deals
  • 2.2.5 Will Australia cash in on international interest?
• 2.3 NBN - Telstra
  • 2.3.1 Telstra and government agree on NBN future
  • 2.3.2 The new Telstra?
• 2.4 Industry at a crossroads
  • 2.4.1 National Broadband Network (NBN) Analysis
  • 2.4.2 NBN opportunities for the main players
  • 2.4.3 The submarine cable conundrum

3. The Trans-sector Approach

• 3.1 NBN based on trans-sector model
  • 3.1.1 Analysis late 2010
  • 3.1.2 Trans-sector awareness update, 2010
  • 3.1.3 E-services in the context of national broadband
  • 3.1.4 Introduction to trans-sector thinking
  • 3.1.5 A matter of leadership
  • 3.1.6 Barriers to broadband adoption
  • 3.1.7 We lack the structures to implement trans-sector visions
  • 3.1.8 Multiplier effect for the NBN
  • 3.1.9 Trans-sector regulation
• 3.2 BuddeComms international broadband and trans-sector activities
  • 3.2.1 The birth of the trans-sector concept
  • 3.2.2 Australia - one of the first countries to develop trans-sector policies
  • 3.2.3 Smart grids and e-Health - the first trans-sector projects
  • 3.2.4 Support from Obama and the FCC
  • 3.2.5 Trans-sector innovations in the Netherlands
  • 3.2.6 New Zealand and the UK
  • 3.2.7 United Nations puts its weight behind trans-sector
  • 3.2.8 Briefing International Investment Houses
  • 3.2.9 BuddeComm proud of the part it has played

4. Mobile Communications

• 4.1 Analysis of the mobile industry in 2010
  • 4.1.1 Mobile industry overview
  • 4.1.2 Key trends and developments
  • 4.1.3 Background information
• 4.2 Mobile broadband market
  • 4.2.1 Introduction - mobile broadband in Australia
  • 4.2.2 Key trends and developments
  • 4.2.3 Market forecasts

5. Smart Infrastructure

• 5.1 Smart grids moving into 2011
  • 5.1.1 Value of Australian smart grid market
  • 5.1.2 Key trends going forward into 2011
  • 5.1.3 New government initiatives
  • 5.1.4 Policy analysis
  • 5.1.5 Regulatory framework
  • 5.1.6 Industry still searching for direction
  • 5.1.7 Industry transformation
  • 5.1.8 ICT solutions for global warming and energy saving
• 5.2 Smart transport systems
  • 5.2.1 What are intelligent transport systems (ITS)?
  • 5.2.2 Overview of ITS activities
  • 5.2.3 Outcomes of ITS Summit, 2009
  • 5.2.4 ITS Australia
  • 5.2.5 Government Inquiry - 2002
  • 5.2.6 Dedicated short-range communications (DSRC)
  • 5.2.7 Smart transport and the National Broadband Network (NBN)
  • 5.2.8 The electric vehicle market in Australia
• 5.3 Smart cities, buildings and communities
  • 5.3.1 Introduction
  • 5.3.2 Building smart cities to ease the stress
  • 5.3.3 Key components of smart cities
  • 5.3.4 Strategies for smart communities
  • 5.3.5 Brief examples of smart communities
  • 5.3.6 Intelligent/smart technologies and systems
  • 5.3.7 Intelligent Communities Forum

6. Digital Media

• 6.1 Social networks
  • 6.1.1 Insatiable appetite for communication
  • 6.1.2 Social network trends in Australia
  • 6.1.3 Key social networks
  • 6.1.4 Statistical overview
  • 6.1.5 Mobile social networking
  • 6.1.6 Personal social networks
  • 6.1.7 Incorporating social media
  • 6.1.8 Conclusions

7. Broadcasting and Pay TV Market

• 7.1 Overview and analysis
  • 7.1.1 Market statistics
  • 7.1.2 Industry and market analysis
  • 7.1.3 Major players - overview and major developments
  • 7.1.4 Forecasts - Pay TV penetration - 2010 - 2015

8. Glossary of Abbreviations

TABLES:

• Table 1 - Broadband subscribers - total market - 2003 - 2010
• Table 2 - Broadband market - annual change - 2004 - 2010
• Table 3 - Broadband subscribers - market shares (cable, ADSL, wireless totals) - 2004 - 2010
• Table 4 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 1995 - 2010
• Table 5 - Top social networking sites in Australia - 2009 - 2010
• Table 6 - Growth of network sites in Australia by sector - 2009
• Table 7 - Pay TV subscribers by operator - 1995 - 2011
• Table 8 - Pay TV subscribers annual change by operator - 1997 - 2011
• Table 9 - Pay TV viewing versus FTA channel viewing - October 2009
• Table 10 - Forecast pay TV household penetration - lower market growth scenario - 2010 - 2015
• Table 11 - Forecast pay TV household penetration - higher market growth scenario - 2010 - 2015

CHARTS:

• Chart 1 - Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 2000 - 2011
• Chart 2 - Mobile subscribers, penetration rate and annual change - 1995-2010
• Chart 3 - Total fixed mobile broadband revenues and annual change - 2007-2011
• Chart 4 - Total mobile services revenue and annual change - 1993-2012
• Chart 5 - Pay TV household penetration rate - 1997 - 2011

EXHIBITS:

• Exhibit 1 - Economic benefits of broadband - overview of surveys
• Exhibit 2 - Economic effects of trans-sector broadband
• Exhibit 3 - Retail electricity price rises in 2010 compared with annual bill in July 2009
• Exhibit 4 - eTags
• Exhibit 5 - Smart city - Masdar City - Abu Dhabi
• Exhibit 6 - Smart homes
• Exhibit 7 - Example of trans-sector collaboration in a Smart City
• Exhibit 8 - Smart shopping
• Exhibit 9 - Learning from e-cars
• Exhibit 10 - The Obama campaign
• Exhibit 11 - Examples of Web 2.0 developments
• Exhibit 12 - New media activities from pay TV operators

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