美國預付行動電話策略的重要性

Abstract

Economic conditions will drive prepaid uptake

• Prepaid Plus provides unlimited on-net mobile calls in the evenings and weekends for $2 per day, chargeable on the days of use only, and $0.05 per minute for all other voice calls and messages.

What these launches showed the market is that Verizon recognises the need to keep its eye on the prepaid sector. Whether these plans will be sufficient to attract retain customers remains to be seen. We don't see Verizon's move as a significant threat to the current prepaid offerings in the market, and it's likely that Verizon will revisit its prepaid offerings again in the foreseeable future.

MVNOs have targeted the prepaid space with varying success

The successful MVNOs such as Virgin and TracFone saw a gap in the market and have dominated the pay-as-you-go space since. We estimate that together Virgin, TracFone and the other MVNOs such as WallMart and Movida make up around 40% the total US prepaid market, with network players such as Sprint (via its Boost brand), T-Mobile, Leap, Metro, AT&T and Verizon totalling the rest. When considering just the pay-as-you-go segment, MVNOs equal more than 50% of connections.

The lean MVNO business model lends itself well to lower-ARPU prepaid customers. fact that MVNOs have a much lower cost base and less infrastructure means in theory they should able to be profitable on a lower-ARPU customer.

In reality even the MVNOs have struggled, with many going out of business. Highprofile players such as Disney, ESPN and Amp'd failed as they competed in the postpaid market against the network operators. The high operational costs associated with being a ‘thick' MVNO and owning their own infrastructure meant that they couldn't attract sufficient customer volumes quickly enough to stay operational. They were also fielding higher-priced premium offers (service plans devices) that customers did not accept on any scale.

The leaner prepaid players have made more of a success of their businesses. In particular we have seen success for those players targeting the Hispanic community which, up until the launch of Movida and Tracfone, didn't have any tailored solutions on offer. TracFone is the largest MVNO in the market with around million customers at the end of 2008. However, even these ethnic players are immune, as shown by the financial difficulties faced by players such as Movida Azteca Mobile during 2008.

Operators need flexible payment mechanisms to attract and retain customers

Most operators in most markets around the world offer pay-as-you-go realtime billing for prepaid customers, usually on a pay-per-minute basis. Many of the US players also offer variations on this:

• pay-per-minute (traditional prepaid charging)

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• In a nutshell
• Ovum view
• Key messages
  • US mobile consumers are switching to prepaid, and more do so in the future
  • Prepaid will become more important to national network operators
  • Hybrid plans are a useful tool for operators
  • But carriers shouldn' t forget the traditional lower-ARPU payas-you-go segment

US MARKET OVERVIEW

• The large network carriers have traditionally shunned prepaid
• Prepaid: the poor relation
• Key prepaid players
  • TracFone
  • Virgin Mobile
  • Metro PCS
  • Leap Wireless
  • Boost
  • Other MVNO players
• Economic conditions will drive prepaid uptake

PREPAID MARKET TRENDS

• Slowdown in postpaid connections growth
• Prepaid evolves into hybrid

OPERATOR POSITIONING

• Strategic landscape

• Market leaders: postpaid still top priority
  • Postpaid is what the market leaders know and are good at
  • Success in winning more postpaid subscribers
  • Both know how to hold onto their postpaid subscribers
  • Postpaid customers are lucrative
  • Postpaid subscribers will drive the use of wireless data services

• Challengers: increasing focus on prepaid
  • T-Mobile struggles to hold onto postpaid subscribers
  • Sprint is resorting to last measures
  • Hybrid plans are a key driver for T-Mobile and Boost in 2009

STRATEGIES FOR HYBRID TARIFF PLANS

• Hybrid plans are a useful tool
• Competition in the hybrid segment heats up

• MetroPCS and Leap are devoted to hybrid plans
  • Dependency on hybrid increases vulnerability of MetroPCS and Leap
  • Expansion is key to growing hybrid base

• Virgin and Tracfone: different strategic paths
  • Tracfone sticking with prepaid
  • Virgin Mobile focuses on hybrid

STRATEGIES FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO

• The traditional prepaid model shouldn' t be forgotten
  • Pay-as-you-go makes up the lion' s share of US prepaid connections

• Network operators dabble in traditional prepaid
• MVNOs have targeted the prepaid space with varying success
• Operators need flexible payment mechanisms to attract and retain customers

STRATEGIES FOR PREPAID DATA SERVICES

• Carriers need to offer more than just voice to prepaid customers
  • Substituting fixed broadband in the home
  • Data services should be viewed as a way to stabilise ARPU and reduce churn

• Figure 1. Total subscriber market share by operator
• Figure 2. Percentage of prepaid in total customer base
• Figure 3. Prepaid subscriber market share by player
• Figure 4. Prepaid connections, and market share as a percentage of total connections
• Figure 5. US prepaid connections, 2008 - 2013
• Figure 6. Prepaid versus postpaid net additions in the US
• Figure 7. Prepaid, hybrid and postpaid subscription characteristics
• Figure 8. Selected operators' US mobile market focus, 2009
• Figure 9. Pay-as-you-go versus hybrid/unlimited prepaid connections
• Figure 10. Leap' s Jump Mobile tariff

• Table 1. Selected players' prepaid ARPU at 4Q08