Abstract
This report analyses how mobile operators may be impacted by the development
of VoIP over cellular networks, in the medium and long term. It focuses on the
issue of cannibalisation of mobile operators' voice revenues and the defensive
measures that mobile operators could implement.
In our view, cellular VoIP is the flavour of mobile VoIP that has the highest
potential impact for mobile operators, although the first significant impacts
are not expected until the long term, typically after 2009. VoIP that bypasses
cellular using WiFi access and dual-mode devices has more short-term
implications for the mobile industry, but it represents in our view less of a
threat for the mobile operators. We cover the issues of voice over WiFi as
part of our research on fixed- mobile convergence.
Table of Contents
Key messages
- Figure 1 Three types of mobile VoIP
Cellular VoIP service scenarios
- The default cellular voice service is based on VoIP
- A soft VoIP client is installed on the phone
- Figure 2 Examples of cellular VoIP clients
- VoIP in combination with specific mobile IP applications
SWOT analysis of VoIP over cellular for mobile operators
Mobile operators' strategies for cellular VoIP
- Mobile operators' positioning
- Figure 3 Mobile operator strategies for mobile VoIP
- Defensive measures against cellular VoIP
- Operators' case studies
Assessing the long-term impacts on a European mobile operator's voice revenues
- Methodology
- Market development scenario (2005- 2015)
- Figure 4 Roadmap for cellular VoIP
- Figure 5 Networks
- Figure 6 Devices
- Figure 7 Competitors
- Figure 8 Services and tariffs
- Figure 9 Adoption by end users
- Impact on voice revenues for 2005- 2015
- Figure 10 Adoption of cellular VoIP services and potential impact on voice
revenues
- Figure 11 Evolution of operator's voice revenues
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