Abstract
FSS industry revenues to increase at better than 5% annually through 2019
NSR' s most recent Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand 7th Edition
study projects an average annual revenue growth rate of 5.4% for the industry
as a whole through 2019. These revenues, exceeding $9.5 billion in 2009, are
for the lease of station-kept geostationary satellite capacity, and NSR
estimates the industry picked up another $226 million in 2009 for leasing of
inclined orbit capacity. Excluding the small but important inclined orbit
segment, NSR estimates that the FSS industry leasing revenues will almost hit
$16.2 billion by 2019 on the back of both increased demand as well as
gradually rising capacity pricing.
The heritage C-band market will have the slowest rate of revenue growth on a
global basis, 2.4%, while leasing of Ku-band capacity will be the single
biggest revenue generating segment growing at a 4.6% average annual basis and
account for 60-65% of total industry revenues in any given year between 2009
and 2019. Potentially more interesting is the changing dynamic of demand
within the global satellite capacity market. While wide beam Ka-band
transponder leasing will remain a small and opportunistic market, the use of
HTS capacity for broadband and a large number of additional services will see
capacity leasing revenues grow annually at better than 30% per year on average
and account for over 13% of total industry revenues in 2019, up from about 1%
in 2009. This is just an assessment of capacity leasing revenues and excludes
additional service revenues generated from the use of HTS capacity.
Continuing Leadership in Market Analysis: 3D Channels and HTS
NSR continues its leadership in analysis of the satellite market and for the
first time has included in the Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand
study and assessment of carriage of fulltime 3D channels on commercial
satellite capacity for video distribution and DTH services. It is believed
that this is the only industry assessment of 3D growth in terms of satellite
channel carriage and capacity demand measured within the context of the entire
FSS segment.
In the prior edition of the Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand
study, NSR was the first and remains the only market analysis firm to
specifically segment and forecast demand for HTS capacity. A high throughput
satellite is defined to be any satellite or satellite payload that has at
least twice (though usually many times more) the throughput of a traditional
FSS satellite for the same amount of allocated frequency on orbit. These
satellites can use either Ku-band or Ka-band to provision a service and almost
exclusively make use of frequency reuse and multiple spot beams to increase
throughput and reduce the price per bit delivered. Not all commercial Ka-band
capacity on orbit or planed can be classified as HTS capacity. For commercial
Ka-band capacity that does not meet the HTS definition, NSR makes separate
forecasts for this capacity in terms of classic 36 MHz transponder equivalents
(TPEs).
Of most pertinence, NSR expects that total net growth in traditional FSS
supply, as measured in classic TPEs, will slow after 2014 yet availability of
HTS capacity will increase dramatically and begin to approach 1 terabyte of
total in-orbit capacity by 2019; a number that was simply unthinkable for
satellites just a few years ago.
Primary Questions Addressed in this Report Include:
- What are the trends driving or restraining commercial satellite capacity
leasing for each application in each regional market and the breakout of this
demand between C-band, Ku-band, Ka-band and HTS capacity?
- Which applications and what types of capacity are most likely to benefit
from new demand or expansion of existing services?
- Who are the main players in each region, and what is their market share in
terms of leased commercial capacity?
- What is the projected growth or decline of analog channels and feeds, SD,
HD and 3D channels, and digital feeds for distribution, DTH and contribution &
OUTV services in each region?
- What is the specific capacity demand for the video services markets,
telephony & carrier, broadband services, narrowband VSAT and other
applications?
- What are the revenues to be generated from leasing of commercial C-band,
Ku-band, Ka-band and HTS capacity in each region and by application?
Primary Elements of the Report Include:
- Industry trend analysis including NSR' s qualitative assessment of each
major market segment
- A bottom-up forecasting approach checked against a top-down analysis for
increased validity of base year demand
- Over 1,000 detailed tables and charts
- Includes Excel sheets with all key data, tables and charts
- Step-by-step methodology
- Variance analysis for each market to highlight any changes between the
current and prior forecasts is this market
All clients of the Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand 7th
Edition report are also entitled to a FREE half-day of consulting time with an
NSR analyst. This time can be used to review report findings, interpret market
forecasts and determine how the report information applies to your company' s
business model.
Same methodology and continued integration with NSR' s report library
The Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand, 7th Edition study
continues to apply the same methodology to its forecasts for the commercial
satellite market as in previous editions in order to maintain consistency with
prior editions. Further, the study is fully integrated with and makes use of
forecasts from NSR' s Broadband Satellite Markets 9th Edition, Government and
Military Satellite Communications, 6th Edition, Mobile Satellite Services 6th
Edition, and Wireless Backhaul via Satellite, 4th Edition studies such that a
multitude of diverse markets can be analyzed in order to produce an
overarching assessment of satellite supply and demand trends. In fact, the
GASSD 7th Edition study coupled with NSR' s other applications-specific market
research studies combine to form an integrated library of detailed and highly
granular research on the commercial satellite market.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
- ES.1 Market Overview
- ES.1.1 Commercial Satellite Market Overview
- ES.1.2 Report Overview
1. Introduction and Market Overview
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.1.1 Report Overview
- 1.1.2 Market Share Leaders
- 1.2 Demand Assessments
- 1.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 1.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 1.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 1.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 1.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 1.3 Global Supply and Demand Forecast
- 1.3.1 Global Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 1.3.2 Global Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial
Satellites
- 1.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 1.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 1.4 Global Revenue Forecast
- 1.4.1 Global Revenue Forecast by Application
- 1.4.2 Total Revenue Forecast by Region
2. Methodologies for a Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand
- 2.1 Forecast Methodology & Assumptions
- 2.1.1 Introduction
- 2.1.2 General Assumptions and Definitions
- 2.1.3 Application Definitions
- 2.1.4 Regional Definitions
- 2.1.5 Methodology Changes in the Last Year
- 2.2 Commercial Transponder & Capacity Supply Methodology
- 2.3 Commercial Satellite Transponder & Capacity Demand Methodologies
- 2.3.1 Video Services Demand Methodology
- 2.3.2 Broadband Demand Methodology
- 2.3.3 Narrowband VSAT Demand Methodology
- 2.3.4 Top-Down Transponder and Capacity Demand Methodology & Forecast
Methodology for Telephony & Carrier Services and Other Services
- 2.4 Sources of Information
3. North America
- 3.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 3.2 Market Assessments for North America
- 3.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 3.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 3.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 3.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 3.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 3.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for North America
- 3.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 3.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 3.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 3.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 3.4 Revenue Forecast for North America
- 3.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for North America
- 3.4.2 Revenue Forecast for North America
- 3.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in North America
4. Central America & The Caribbean
- 4.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 4.2 Market Assessments for Central America and the Caribbean
- 4.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 4.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 4.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 4.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 4.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 4.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for Central America and the Caribbean
- 4.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 4.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 4.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 4.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 4.4 Revenue Forecast for Central America & the Caribbean
- 4.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for Central America & the
Caribbean
- 4.4.2 Revenue Forecast for Central America & the Caribbean
- 4.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in Central America and the Caribbean
5. South America
- 5.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 5.2 Market Assessments for South America
- 5.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 5.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 5.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 5.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 5.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 5.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for South America
- 5.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 5.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 5.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 5.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 5.4 Revenue Forecast for South America
- 5.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for South America
- 5.4.2 Revenue Forecast for South America
- 5.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in South America
6. Atlantic Ocean Region
- 6.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 6.2 Market Assessments for the Atlantic Ocean Region
- 6.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 6.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 6.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 6.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 6.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 6.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for the Atlantic Ocean Region
- 6.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 6.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 6.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 6.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 6.4 Revenue Forecast for the Atlantic Ocean Region
- 6.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for the Atlantic Ocean
Region
- 6.4.2 Revenue Forecast for the Atlantic Ocean Region
- 6.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in the Atlantic Ocean Region
7. Western Europe
- 7.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 7.2 Market Assessments for Western Europe
- 7.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 7.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 7.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 7.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 7.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 7.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for Western Europe
- 7.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 7.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 7.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 7.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 7.4 Revenue Forecast for Western Europe
- 7.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for Western Europe
- 7.4.2 Revenue Forecast for Western Europe
- 7.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in Western Europe
8. Central & Eastern Europe
- 8.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 8.2 Market Assessments for Central & Eastern Europe
- 8.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 8.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 8.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 8.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 8.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 8.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for Central & Eastern Europe
- 8.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 8.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 8.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 8.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 8.4 Revenue Forecast for Central & Eastern Europe
- 8.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for Central & Eastern
Europe
- 8.4.2 Revenue Forecast for Central & Eastern Europe
- 8.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in Central & Eastern Europ
9. Middle East & North Africa
- 9.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 9.2 Market Assessments for the Middle East & North Africa
- 9.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 9.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 9.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 9.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 9.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 9.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for the Middle East & North Africa
- 9.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 9.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 9.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 9.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 9.4 Revenue Forecast for the Middle East & North Africa
- 9.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for the Middle East &
North Africa
- 9.4.2 Revenue Forecast for the Middle East & North Africa
- 9.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in the Middle East & North Africa
10. Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 10.2 Market Assessments for Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 10.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 10.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 10.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 10.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 10.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 10.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 10.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 10.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 10.4 Revenue Forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.4.2 Revenue Forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in Sub-Saharan Africa
11 East Asia
- 11.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 11.2 Market Assessments for East Asia
- 11.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 11.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 11.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 11.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 11.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 11.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for East Asia
- 11.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 11.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 11.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 11.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 11.4 Revenue Forecast for East Asia
- 11.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for East Asia
- 11.4.2 Revenue Forecast for East Asia
- 11.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in East Asia
12. South Asia
- 12.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 12.2 Market Assessments for the South Asia
- 12.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 12.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 12.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 12.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 12.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 12.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for South Asia
- 12.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 12.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 12.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 12.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 12.4 Revenue Forecast for South Asia
- 12.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for South Asia
- 12.4.2 Revenue Forecast for South Asia
- 12.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in South Asia
13. Southeast Asia
- 13.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 13.2 Market Assessments for Southeast Asia
- 13.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 13.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 13.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 13.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 13.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 13.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for Southeast Asia
- 13.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 13.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 13.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 13.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 13.4 Revenue Forecast for Southeast Asia
- 13.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for Southeast Asia
- 13.4.2 Revenue Forecast for Southeast Asia
- 13.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in Southeast Asia
14. Pacific Ocean Region
- 14.1 Main Players & Market Share
- 14.2 Market Assessments for the Pacific Ocean Region
- 14.2.1 Assessment of Video Services Markets
- 14.2.2 Assessment of Telephony & Carrier Markets
- 14.2.3 Assessment of Broadband Markets
- 14.2.4 Assessment of Narrowband VSAT Markets
- 14.2.5 Assessment of Other Satellite Applications
- 14.3 Supply and Demand Forecast for the Pacific Ocean Region
- 14.3.1 Baseline Demand Forecasts for Station Kept Commercial Satellites
- 14.3.2 Baseline Supply and Fill Rate Forecasts for Station Kept
Commercial Satellites
- 14.3.3 Comparison GASSD 6th and GASSD 7th Ed. Forecasts
- 14.3.4 Supply & Demand Assessment for Inclined Orbit Commercial
Satellites in 2009
- 14.4 Revenue Forecast for the Pacific Ocean Region
- 14.4.1 Transponder and Capacity Price Estimates for the Pacific Ocean
Region
- 14.4.2 Revenue Forecast for the Pacific Ocean Region
- 14.5 Dedicated Satellite Services in the Pacific O
