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市場調查報告書

歐亞地區的智慧電網市場預測

Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2014 - 2024)

出版商 Northeast Group, LLC 商品編碼 311901
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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歐亞地區的智慧電網市場預測 Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2014 - 2024)
出版日期: 2014年09月05日 內容資訊: 英文
簡介

在歐亞地區,智慧電網的投資有幾個推動因素,預計2014年末將已導入近300萬個的智慧電表。高配電損失和合適的當地供應商成為推進因素,公共事業經營者,尤其是俄羅斯、烏克蘭的公共事業經營者,雖沒有強力的法律規章獎勵,仍積極引進智慧電表。在歐亞地區的智慧電網的投資額,預計從2014年到2024年累計達到183億美元。

本報告提供舊蘇聯12個國家的智慧電網的投資狀況與展望的相關調查、各種的電力產業結構、智慧電網相關的法律規章、投資預測、公共事業經營者的配合措施等彙整資料。

摘要整理

調查手法

第1章 簡介

第2章 歐亞地區的智慧電網:概要

  • 地區與比較
  • 歐亞地區的成長推進因素
  • 歐亞地區的阻礙成長要素
  • 最新發展趨勢

第3章 地區市場預測

第4章 俄羅斯

  • 電力產業結構
  • 智慧電網的法律制度
  • 市場預測
  • 公共事業經營者的活動

第5章 烏茲別克

  • 電力產業結構
  • 智慧電網的法律制度
  • 市場預測
  • 公共事業經營者的活動

第6章 烏克蘭

  • 電力產業結構
  • 智慧電網的法律制度
  • 市場預測
  • 公共事業經營者的活動

第7章 哈薩克

  • 電力產業結構
  • 智慧電網的法律制度
  • 市場預測
  • 公共事業經營者的活動

第8章 吉爾吉斯

  • 電力產業結構
  • 智慧電網的法律制度
  • 市場預測
  • 公共事業經營者的活動

第9章 其他各國

  • 東歐:白俄羅斯、摩爾多瓦
  • 高加索地區:亞美尼亞、亞塞拜然、喬治亞
  • 中亞:塔吉克、土庫曼

第10章 供應商的配合措施

  • 歐亞地區的供應商
  • 在歐亞地區活動的國際供應商

第11章 附錄

圖表

目錄

The Eurasia region has several drivers for smartgrid investment. Mostnotably, by the end of 2014 there will be nearly 3 million smart meters already deployed in this region. Driven by high distribution losses and aided by affordable local vendors, utilities-particularly in Russia and Ukraine-have been ambitious in deploying smart meters, despite a lack of strong regulatory incentives. This bodes well for future deployments, as investment should continue even without strong regulatory drivers. Overall, cumulative smart grid investment in Eurasia will reach $18.3 billion between 2014 and 2024. This includes investment in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution automation (DA), wide area measurement (WAM), home energy management (HEM), and information technology (IT).

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This study covers all twelve former Soviet countries not currently in the EU, which share several key characteristics. Until 1991, they were all part of the Soviet Union. As a result, they share not only an interconnected power grid but also a legacy of inefficient power usage across the residential, commercial, and especially industrial segments. On average, Eurasian countries have the highest energy intensity of any emerging market region in the world. Until recently, this had been ignored by governments eager to streamline economic growth, but in the past five years all major countries have passed some form of energy efficiency law. Smart grid will play an important role in improving the energy efficiency of Eurasian economies-both through direct incentives such as revised tariffs and by making consumers more aware of their energy consumption.

Electricity distribution losses are also above average across Eurasia. Only Kazakhstan has an official distribution loss rate below the emerging market average, however it is important to note that Kazakhstan's unofficial loss rate is well above average. In neighboring Central Asian countries, distribution loss rates exceed 20%. Smart meters are the most effective tool at reducing distribution loss rates. They have already succeeded in bringing loss rates in Russia and Ukraine close to the emerging market average and multilateral financing programs are in place to reduce losses in Uzbekistan. In many cases, reducing losses can provide enough savings to cover the costs of smart metering investments, even without a strong regulatory framework.

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Such a clear---cut business case is necessary for at least the next few years, as the political and regulatory environment in Eurasian countries is challenging. No Eurasian countries have meaningful smart grid regulations, and energy efficiency and renewable energy regulations are still in their early stages. Meanwhile, corruption is extremely high, with almost all Eurasian countries falling in the bottom quartile of Transparency International s Corruption Perceptions Index. Political risk has only worsened in 2014 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This creates considerable risk throughout the region, all of which Russia considers under its sphere of influence. In some cases, economic sanctions could make smart grid activity from Western firms difficult in the near term.

But ultimately, the conditions for smart grid development in Eurasia are strong enough to drive investment in all but the most challenging regulatory environments. Meanwhile, even in countries with poor economic and political climates, multilateral funding may be available to ensure secure financing, implement necessary technical standards, and overcome political risk hurdles-as is the current case in Uzbekistan. With poor energy efficiency, high distribution losses, and knowledgeable local firms eager to partner with international smart grid vendors, the medium---term outlook for smart grid infrastructure in Eurasia is favorable. By 2024, the smart grid market in Eurasia will be comparable to that of Central & Eastern Europe, and trail only China, India, and Latin America among emerging market regions in total market size.

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Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will five smart grid market segments and fourteen sub---markets be in 2024?
  • How are multilateral lending programs driving smart grid investments?
  • Where are smart meter deployments already well developed?
  • What will be the effect of current political crises on the smart grid and infrastructure industries?
  • Which international and local vendors are best placed to serve the market?

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

ii. Methodology

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 What is smart grid?
  • 1.2 How is smart grid being used elsewhere in the world?

2. Eurasia smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1 The region in comparison
  • 2.2 Regional drivers
  • 2.3 Regional challenges
  • 2.4 Most recent developments

3. Regional market forecast

4. Russia

  • 4.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 4.3 Market forecast
  • 4.4 Utility activity

5. Uzbekistan

  • 5.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 5.3 Market forecast
  • 5.4 Utility activity

6. Ukraine

  • 6.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 6.3 Market forecast
  • 6.4 Utility activity

7. Kazakhstan

  • 7.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 7.3 Market forecast
  • 7.4 Utility activity

8. Kyrgyzstan

  • 8.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 8.3 Market forecast
  • 8.4 Utility activity

9. Other countries

  • 9.1 Eastern Europe: Belarus and Moldova
  • 9.2 Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
  • 9.3 Central Asia: Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

10. Vendor activity

  • 10.1 Eurasia---based vendors
  • 10.2 International vendors active in Eurasia

11. Appendix

  • 11.1 List of companies covered in this report
  • 11.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

  • Eurasia smart grid: key takeaways
  • Smart meter deployments in Eurasia
  • Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Distribution losses in Eurasia
  • Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Ranking of Eurasia countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
  • Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid model
  • Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Eurasia
  • Table 1.2: Demand response options
  • Figure 1.3: Smart grid activity in emerging markets
  • Figure 1.4: Cumulative AMI investment by region in 2014
  • Figure 1.5: Cumulative DA investment by region in 2014
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Per---capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.3: Per---capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.5: Distribution losses in Eurasia 3
  • Figure 2.6: Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Table 2.1: Reliability indicators in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.7: Solar and wind resources in Eurasia 3
  • Figure 2.8: Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.9: Per---capita income in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.10: Electricity prices in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.11: Ranking of Eurasian countries in TI's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Figure 3.1: Eurasia AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country 4
  • Table 3.1: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 3.3: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in Eurasia
  • Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
  • Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
  • Table3.4: DA forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
  • Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
  • Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
  • Table 4.1: Russia key data
  • Figure 4.1: Russia AMI penetration rate
  • Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Russia
  • Box 4.1: Political risk in Russia
  • Figure 4.2: Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
  • Figure 4.3: Federal regulations affecting smart grid in Russia
  • Box 4.2: Standards for transmission, distribution, and metering devices in Russia
  • Figure 4.4: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast 6
  • Table 4.3: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 4.5: Russia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 4.6: Russia cumulative AMI forecast data 6
  • Figure 4.7: Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 5.1: Uzbekistan key data
  • Figure 5.1: Uzbekistan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Uzbekistan
  • Box 5.1: Political risk in Uzbekistan
  • Figure 5.2: Multilateral funding programs for AMI metering in Uzbekistan
  • Figure 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 6.1: Ukraine key data
  • Figure 6.1: Ukraine AMI penetration rate
  • Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Ukraine
  • Box 6.1: Political risk in Ukraine
  • Figure 6.2: Non---traditional renewable energy generation in Ukraine
  • Figure 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 7.1: Kazakhstan key data
  • Figure 7.1: Kazakhstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Kazakhstan
  • Box 7.1: Political risk in Kazakhstan
  • Figure 7.2: Countries with highest per---capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 8.1: Kyrgyzstan key data
  • Figure 8.1: Kyrgyzstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Kyrgyzstan
  • Box 8.1: Political risk in Kyrgyzstan
  • Figure 8.2: Highest global official distribution loss rates
  • Figure 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 9.1: Other Eurasia key data
  • Figure 9.1: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 9.3: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 10.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.3: Leading emerging market---based smart grid vendors
  • Figure 10.4: ADD smart meter deployments in Eurasia
  • Table 15.1: Matritca smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 15.2: Additional smart grid vendors based in Eurasia
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