Abstract
Some observers now believe that thin film, organic and printed (TOP)
electronics will grow into an industry rivaling today' s semiconductor industry
in size within a couple of decades. For this to happen new types of
semiconductor device-transistors and memories-will have to be developed and
commercialized. At the present time, the most likely materials platform for
this type of device would seem to be organic materials.
Organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs) are found in backplanes for e-paper
devices and games that one can buy today and they have been used in RFID
demonstrators. Organic memories were proposed as a flash memory replacement a
few years back, but are seeing a revival in a slightly different form for the
TOP environment. A handful of firms are pledged to take such devices to the
next stage and embed them in a wide range of novel devices and applications.
Meanwhile, there is extensive research being undertaken, especially in Asia,
to improve the performance of organic transistors and memories, which will
help to extend their market reach further.
And these devices certainly are in need of further development. Much of the
activity is still at the level of device architectures and showing that
devices can be manufactured in at least pilot plant quantities. While their
potential is huge, the reality is often far less impressive. Conductivity of
organic materials is low and this is reflected in their slow switching speeds
which in turn limits their applications. Most of the commercial products and
demonstrators that use OTFTs have, at best, very modest performance. A fairly
similar story can be told with regard to organic memories. Indeed, important
voices have been raised in support of an alternative future in which TOP
electronics will ultimately progress using inorganic devices made from printed
silicon, carbon nanotubes, etc. rather than OTFTs and organic memories.
This report analyzes and forecasts the market for OTFTs and organic memories
and assesses its likely future success and challenges. It provides an in-depth
review of current commercialization and research programs and provides a
roadmap for the development of both OTFTs/organic memories and the
applications/products in which they will be used. In addition, the report
contains detailed forecasts of both OTFTs and organic memories in both volume
and value terms, broken out both by application and by technology type. This
is an applications and device oriented technology assessment and is intended
to complement NanoMarkets' new market research report on organic electronics
materials. The report is based on extensive interviews with the movers and
shakers in the TOP electronics community, as well as extensive secondary
research including an analysis of patents filed by leading firms active in
this space.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
- E.1 Opportunities in Organic Memory and OTFTs
- E.1.1 Key Developments in the Past Year
- E.1.2 Opportunities in OTFT Devices
- E.1.3 Opportunities in Organic Memory and Other Devices
- E.1.4 Opportunities for Materials Suppliers and Equipment Makers
- E.2 Manufacturers and Research Groups to Watch
- E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OTFT and Organic Memory Markets
Chapter One: Introduction
- 1.1 Background to this Report
- 1.1.1 The Second Coming of TFTs
- 1.1.2 Organic Electronics and TFTs
- 1.1.3 Challenges to OTFTs
- 1.1.4 A Note on Organic Memory
- 1.2 Goal and Scope of this Report
- 1.2.1 OTFTs and the TOP Electronics Value Chain
- 1.3 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
- 1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Technology Assessments of Organic Transistors and Memories
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.1.1 OTFTs and Competing Technologies for Display Backplanes
- 2.1.2 OTFTs and Competing Technology for RFID
- 2.1.3 OTFTs and Competing Technologies for "Disposable Electronics"
- 2.2 Architectures for OTFTs
- 2.2.1 Top Contact and Bottom Contact OTFTs
- 2.3 Performance Improvements
- 2.4 Materials for OTFTs and Organic Memories
- 2.4.1 Semiconductor Materials for OTFTs
- 2.4.2 Dielectrics
- 2.4.3 Conductors
- 2.5 Organic Memories
- 2.5.1 Organic Memory as a Flash Replacement
- 2.5.2 Organic Memory in Organic Electronics
- 2.5.3 Requirements and Architectures for Organic Memory
- 2.5.4 Markets for Organic Memory
- 2.6 Other Devices
- 2.6.1 Single-Crystal OTFTs
- 2.6.2 Light-Emitting Transistors
- 2.7 Manufacturing Technologies for OTFTs and Organic Memories
- 2.7.1 Vapor Deposition
- 2.7.2 Printing
- 2.7.3 Solution Processing Other than Printing
- 2.7.4 Optical Lithography
- 2.7.5 Shadow Masking
- 2.8 Flexible Devices and Flexible Substrates
- 2.9 Summary of Main Points in this Chapter
Chapter Three: Applications and Drivers for Organic Semiconductor Devices
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Display Backplanes
- 3.2.1 OTFT Backplanes and Cost Reduction
- 3.2.2 OTFTs, Improved Display Performance and Flexibility
- 3.3 RFID Tags
- 3.3.1 Markets and Market Needs for RFID
- 3.3.2 Lowering the Cost of RFID with OTFTs and Organic Memory
- 3.4 Smart Cards
- 3.4.1 How Can OTFTs and Organic Memories Add Value to Smart Cards?
- 3.5 Smart Packaging
- 3.5.1 How Can OTFTs and Organic Memories Add Value to Packaging?
- 3.6 Sensors and Medical Applications
- 3.6.1 How Can Organic Semiconductor Devices Change the Sensing Industry?
- 3.6.2 Biomedical Applications
- 3.6.3 Other Sensing Applications
- 3.7 Games, Gadgets and Gizmos
- 3.8 Summary of Main Points in this Chapter
Chapter Four: OTFT and Organic Memory Manufacturers
- 4.1 3M
- 4.2 Acreo
- 4.3 Asahi Kasei
- 4.4 Dai Nippon Printing
- 4.5 Epson U.K Cambridge Research Laboratory
- 4.5 Hewlett-Packard
- 4.6 Hitachi
- 4.7 IBM
- 4.8 Infineon
- 4.9 Intel
- 4.10 LG Chem
- 4.11 LG Philips
- 4.12 Motorola
- 4.13 NHK
- 4.14 ORFID
- 4.15 OrganicID
- 4.16 Philips
- 4.17 Pioneer Electronics
- 4.18 Plastic Logic
- 4.19 PolyIC
- 4.20 Polymer Vision
- 4.20.1Innos
- 4.21 printed systems
- 4.22 Ricoh
- 4.23 Samsung
- 4.24 Sony
- 4.25 Spansion
- 4.26 STMicroelectronics
- 4.27 Thin Film Electronics
- 4.28 Xerox (including Xerox PARC and Xerox Research Centre of Canada)
- 4.30 ZettaCore
Chapter Five: Review and Analysis of OTFT and Organic Memory Research Activities
- 5.1 Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry
- 5.2 Chiba University
- 5.3 Cornell University
- 5.4 Dankook University
- 5.5 DeMontfort University
- 5.6 Dong-A University
- 5.7 ETH Zurich
- 5.8 ETRI
- 5.9 Fraunhofer Institutes
- 5.9.1 Fraunhofer ISC
- 5.9.2 Fraunhofer IZM
- 5.10 Georgia Institute of Technology
- 5.11 Hongik University
- 5.12 Hoseo University
- 5.13 IMEC
- 5.14 Inha University
- 5.15 Institute of Microelectronics, NCSR Demokritos
- 5.16 ITRI
- 5.17 Jacobs University (Germany)
- 5.18 Japan Science and Technology Agency
- 5.19 Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology (KRICT)
- 5.20 Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials
- 5.21 Korea University
- 5.22 Kumoh National Institute of Technology
- 5.23 Kyoto University
- 5.24 Kyung Hee University
- 5.25 Kyushu University
- 5.26 Leibniz Institute for Solid State and Materials Research (IFW)
- 5.27 Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research
- 5.28 Nanyang Technological University
- 5.29 NASA
- 5.30 National Cheng Kung University
- 5.31 National Chiao-Tung University
- 5.32 National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
(AIST Japan)
- 5.33 National University of Singapore
- 5.34 Northwestern University/Polyera
- 5.35 Osaka University
- 5.36 Penn State
- 5.37 Pohang University of Science and Technology (Korea)
- 5.38 Polytechnic of Milan (Politecnico di Milano)
- 5.39 Pusan National University
- 5.40 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
- 5.41 RIKEN
- 5.42 Rutgers University
- 5.43 Samtel Centre for Display Technologies
- 5.44 Seoul National University
- 5.45 Sogang University
- 5.46 Tohoku University (Japan)
- 5.47 UCLA
- 5.48 University of Arkansas
- 5.49 University of California Berkeley
- 5.50 University of Cambridge
- 5.51 University of Groningen
- 5.52 University of Houston
- 5.53 University of Liverpool
- 5.54 University of Maryland
- 5.55 University of Michigan
- 5.56 University of Minnesota
- 5.57 University of Texas
- 5.58 University of Toronto
- 5.59 University of Tokyo
Chapter Six: Eight-Year Forecasts of Organic Semiconductor Devices
- 6.1 Forecasting Methodology
- 6.1.1 Forecasting Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
- 6.1.2 Alternative Scenarios
- 6.2 Forecast of OTFTs and Memories by Application
- 6.2.1 Display Backplane Applications
- 6.2.2 RFID Applications
- 6.2.3 Smartcard Applications
- 6.2.4 Sensor Applications
- 6.2.5 Games, Gadgets and Gizmos
- 6.2.6 Summary of OTFT and Organic Memory Applications
- 6.3 Forecasts of Organic Memories by Materials and Production Processes
Used
- 6.3.1 Materials Forecast
- 6.3.2 Production Forecast
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
- Exhibit E-1: Organic Memory and OTFT Markets ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 1-1: TOP Electronics Value Chain
- Exhibit 2-1: Characteristics of OE Materials
- Exhibit 2-2: Organic Materials Used in Memory Applications
- Exhibit 2-3: OVPD versus Thermal Evaporation
- Exhibit 4-1: Sony OLED/OTFT Display Specs
- Exhibit 4-2: TFE' s Partners
- Exhibit 4-3: TFE' s Printed Memory Specs
- Exhibit 5-1: Selected Universities and Research Institutes Involved in
Research on OTFTs and Organic Memory
- Exhibit 6-1: OTFT Backplane Markets 2008-2015
- Exhibit 6-2: OTFT and Organic Memories in RFID Tags 2008-2015
- Exhibit 6-3: OTFT and Organic Memories in Smart Cards: 2008-2015
- Exhibit 6-4: OTFT and Organic Memory Sales in Sensor Markets
- Exhibit 6-5: OTFT and Organic Memory Sales in Games, Gadgets and Gizmos
Markets
- Exhibit 6-6: OTFT-Only Markets ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 6-7: Memory-Only Markets ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 6-8: Memory + OTFT Markets ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 6-9: Total OTFT/Organic Memory Markets by Application ($ Millions)
- Exhibit 6-10: Materials for Organic Memory and OTFT Markets
- Exhibit 6-11: Materials for Organic Memory and OTFT Markets by Processing
Type ($ Millions)
