奈米科技

本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。

簡介

由於設備成本高漲以及傳統半導體製造的微影技術所無法處理的先進技術的抬頭，半導體製造設備企業正處於十分嚴峻的情況下。在性能、消費電力及其他方面上相當卓越的奈米材料與奈米科技（Nanotechnology）平台也可以考慮當作替代技術，但是由於其商業化的成本過高、有相當的風險，因此需要充分的研商以及探討。

專研通訊、IT、半導體、生技醫藥、能源等領域之奈米科技影響的美國專業公司 NanoMarkets （總公司：維吉尼亞州），調查與分析奈米科技對於半導體製造設備市場的影響，並有系統地出版綜合報告書“The Impact of Nanotechnology on the Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Market”

此報告書在下面的內容裡，除了探討奈米科技在半導體製造設備市場內的市場機會的相關定量分析，也說明主要企業、市場成功的策略分析、至 2012 年前的市場預測等。

摘要

第 1 章 序論

• 本調查背景
• 調查目的
• 調查範圍
• 調查手法
• 報告書刊載情報
• 報告書計畫

第 2 章 製造課題與機會

• 摩爾定律與誇克鱗狀剝落的問題
• 應考慮事項
• 時間尺度
• 架構問題
  • 多核心處理器的影響
  • 3次元架構的影響
• 製造成本

第 3 章 新奈米製造技術

• 替代微影系統技術與市場評價
  • 濕浸式微影技術
  • EUV（超紫外線）微影技術
  • EPL（電子束）微影技術
  • 奈米轉印微影技術
• 直接描繪
  • 沾筆式奈米微影術
  • E束／I束
• 沉積與自己集合
  • 原子層沉積（ALD）
  • 自己集合
• 其他研究

第 4 章 新材料與需求

• 說明
• 矽的替代材料
• 低介電率（Low-k）與高介電率（High-k）材料
• 碳奈米管與奈米線
• 自旋電子
• Molectronics（分子電腦）
• 塑膠電子/有機電子
• 量子點

第 5 章 新世代製造設備的8年內預測

• 預測方法論
• 誤差的潛在要素
• 設備價格
• 預測

目錄

Abstract

The semiconductor manufacturing equipment business is on the verge of dealing with important challenges. The relentless increase in the cost of equipment has led to a situation in which the amortized cost of this equipment over the number of chips produced now rivals the current price of the chips themselves. Many experts are now suggesting -- and only half in jest -- that within a few years, the cost of a fab will equal the GDP of some medium-sized countries. And all of this is occurring at a time when Moores Law is pushing the limits of conventional semiconductor manufacturings lithography technology. Feature sizes are half the dimension of the wavelength that is being used to define the patterns.

To meet these challenges, there are now a growing number of alternatives to conventional lithography that are being developed for making silicon microelectronics. All of them have considerable promise, but they will be expensive to develop and fully commercialize. At the same time, new materials/technology platforms - such as spintronics, plastic electronics, molectronics and nanotube/nanowire electronics are emerging that promise to improve on conventional silicon technology in terms of performance, power consumption and other important metrics. But these raise challenges of their own.

Some observers believe that many current equipment firms will not be able to cope with these issues and will quit the market. As a result, they say, the equipment market will become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few firms. However, at the same time, there have never been so many opportunities for new entrants to stake out an emerging segment of the semiconductor equipment market. This report identifies and quantifies the opportunities in this exciting area, identifies the main players, and analyzes the strategies that will lead equipment companies to success.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

E.1 Emerging Challenges for Semiconductor Manufacturing 1

E.2 New Production Technologies涉dvantages, Disadvantages and Timetables 2

E.3 New Materials/Technology Platforms for Chips An Alternative to Silicon 4

E.4 Firms to Watch 5

E.5 Summary of Forecasts 8

E.6 Summary of Conclusions 9

Chapter One Introduction 12

1.1 Background to Report 12

1.2 Objective of this Report 12

1.3 Scope of this Report 13

1.4 Methodology of this Report 14

1.5 Information for this Report 14

1.6 Plan of this Report 15

Chapter Two Sources of Manufacturing Challenge and Opportunity 16

2.1 Moores Law and the Prob lems of Scaling 16

2.2 What, Us Worry? 17

2.3 Timescales? 17

2.4 Architectural Issues 21

2.4.1 Impact of Multicore Processors 22

2.4.2 Impact of 3-D Architectures 22

2.5 Fab Costs 23

Chapter Three The New "Nano" Production Techniques 25

3.1 Introduction 25

3.2 Technology and Market Assessment of Alternative Lithography Systems 28

3.2.1 Immersion Lithography 28

3.2.2 EUV Lithography 30

3.2.3 Electron Projection Lithography (EPL) 32

3.2.4 Nanoimprint Lithography 33

3.3 Direct-write 38

3.3.1 Dip-Pen Nanolithography 38

3.3.2 E-Beam 41

3.4 Deposition and Self-Assembly 46

3.4.1 Atomic Layer Deposition 47

3.4.2 Self-Assembly 47

3.5 Other Approaches 50

Chapter Four New Materials and their Demands on Production 52

4.1 Introduction 52

4.2 Alternatives to Silicon 54

4.3 High and Low-k Materials 55

4.4 Carbon Nanotubes and Nanowires 58

4.5 Spintronics 62

4.6 Molectronics 65

4.7 Plastic/Organic Electronics 68

4.8 Quantum Dots 70

Chapter Five Eight-Year Forecasts of Next Generation Production Equipment 72

5.1 Forecasting Methodology 72

5.2 Potential Sources of Error 72

5.3 Pricing of Equipment 73

5.4 Forecasts 74

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report 77

About the Author 78

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1 Important Novel Approaches to Semiconductor Manufacturing 3
• Exhibit E-2 New Materials Platforms and their Production Requirements 4
• Exhibit E-3 Summary of Market Forecasts for Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Operating at the Nanoscale (excludes conventional photolithography) 9
• Exhibit 2-1 Different Perspectives on Scaling 20
• Exhibit 3-1 Selected NIL Players and Technologies 36
• Exhibit 3-2 Recent End Users of Molecular Imp rints Nanoimprint Lithography Equipment 37
• Exhibit 3-3 Potential Applications for Ink-Jet Printable Electronics 45
• Exhibit 4-1 The Interrelationship Between Materials, Architecture and Production Modes 53
• Exhibit 4-2 Evolution of Nanotube Electronics 59
• Exhibit 4-3 Evolution of Molectronics 67
• Exhibit 5-1 Market Forecasts for Alternative Lithography Technologies 75
• Exhibit 5-2 Market Forecasts for Direct Write Technologies 76

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