美國手機通訊服務市場：2009年8月

About this report

During the review period, the four leading national carriers faced increasing competition from prepaid offerings– in particular, unlimited calling plans with no annual contract requirement. Service providers are increasingly seeking ways to grow revenue from data plans; this appears to be the growth opportunity for the foreseeable future. Market participants are placing their bets on two competing 4G standards– WiMAX and LTE– and looking for ways to leverage the benefits of increased speed and data capabilities of these new network technologies. Faster mobile networks will create opportunities to replace home broadband with mobile broadband, and provide the ability to handle more complex content on a larger array of devices.

Analysis and insights include:

• Size and growth forecast for mobile services including voice and data segments
• Market drivers and competitive context
• Role of and growth of prepaid service plans, data plans and impact of the 4G rollout
• Innovation and innovators
• Leading companies in the market
• Ad spending and advertising strategies and/or themes (including web marketing) by brand
• Consumer opinions and behavior including data on ownership, usage, influencers of carrier choice, average spending, and interest in a range of mobile services and service plan types

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Advertising creative
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• Data revenue is driving growth
• Growth from new services and markets, not new signups
• Pressure from low-cost prepaid plans
• Data plans not immune
• Cable companies to join wireless fray
• Free calls cost (the carrier)
• The costs of 4G
• Retail gets greater attention
• AT&T and Verizon the biggest U.S. media spenders
• Phones as branding
• Growth opportunities: Young teens, low-income households and seniors
• Social networks moving to the cell phone
• Family plans continue to make rapid gains
• Competitive Context
• Killing the copper wire landline--neither profitable nor avoidable
  • Figure 4: Wireless-only (voice) households, June 2004-June 2008
• Under-35s living without the landline
  • Figure 5: No home landline, by age, November 2008
• VoIP/cell combo may be an effective draw for low-income households
  • Figure 6: No home landline, by household income, November 2008
• Wi-Fi and VoIP: Competition from formerly home-oriented voice services
• Carriers losing software downloads to handset supplier stores
• Learning from the competition
• App curation
• Social networking as competition for voice
• Access to the WWW makes content sales by carriers unlikely
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Penetration for adults nearing universal ownership
• ARPU stalled at 2005 levels
  • Figure 7: Average monthly consumer mobile phone bill, 2004-08
• Growth will come from capturing additional revenue streams
• Better service and friendlier contract terms needed
• Sales and forecast of mobile phone services
  • Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of mobile phone services, at current prices, 2004-14
  • Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of mobile phone services, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• Data revenue driving growth
• Competition zaps voice revenue
  • Figure 10: U.S. sales and forecast of mobile phone service, at current prices, by segment, 2004-09
  • Figure 11: U.S. sales of mobile phone service, voice vs. data, 2007 and 2009
• Segment Performance--Voice Services
• Key points
• Unlimited calling, limited revenue growth
• Mobile or home, that call is included
• Sales and forecast of mobile voice services
  • Figure 12: U.S. sales and forecast of mobile voice services, at current prices, 2004-14
  • Figure 13: Total U.S. sales and forecast of mobile voice services, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
• Segment Performance--Data and Other Services
• Key points
• The sky' s the limit
• The rise of mobile broadband
• Sales and forecast of data and other services
  • Figure 14: U.S. sales and forecast of mobile data and other services, at current prices, 2004-14
  • Figure 15: Total U.S. sales and forecast of mobile data and other services, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
• Retail Channels
• Key points
• National retailers and carrier store brands dominate
• It' s all about the customer experience
• Prepaid providers open retail outlets
• Online presence too
• Market Drivers
• Limited availability of new high-revenue subscribers
  • Figure 16: U.S. cell phone subscriptions, 2000-08
• Exponential growth in mobile data traffic
  • Figure 17: Global mobile data traffic, 2008-13
• 4G (WiMAX and LTE)
• Upward trickle from younger users
  • Figure 18: Cell phone features used in last 30 days, by age, July 2008-March 2009
• Mobile advertising
• Price wars
• Data plans for netbooks
• "Real-time" web applications to drive data
  • Figure 19: Role of mobile phones in social networking sites, by age, October 2008
• Phones as drivers
• Leading Companies
• Key points
• Four leaders carry 85% of revenue
• Prepaid making significant gains
  • Figure 20: Subscribers to leading mobile phone services companies, 2007 and 2008
  • Figure 21: Mobile services ARPU, postpaid vs. prepaid, Q1 2009
• Data plans driving revenue gains
• Costs high for infrastructure investments
  • Figure 22: U.S. voice and data service revenues for AT&T and Verizon, 2007 and 2008
• ARPU in decline
  • Figure 23: Quarterly ARPU for leading carriers, 2008
• Sprint, AT&T, and Verizon roll out femtocells
• Brand penetration by demographic
  • Figure 24: Cell phone carrier brand penetration*, October 2007-December 2008 vs. July 2008-March 2009
  • Figure 25: Cell phone carrier brand penetration, by age, July 2008-March 2009
  • Figure 26: Cell phone carrier brand penetration, by household income, July 2008-March 2009
  • Figure 27: Cell phone carrier brand penetration, by region, July 2008-March 2009
• Brand Qualities
• Pipes have no inherent differentiation
• Case in point: Novatel' s MiFi available on all four carriers
• Consumers select largely based on coverage and pricing
  • Figure 28: Leading influencers for carrier selection, March 2009
• AT&T
• Sprint
• Sprint Power VisionSM Network
• Sprint powers Kindle
• Virgin Mobile
• T-Mobile
• Free Wi-Fi minutes with hotspot subscription
• T-Mobile connecting to smart meters
• Verizon
• V Cast
• Small business service
• Leap (Cricket)
• Boost Mobile
• MetroPCS
• Innovation and Innovators
• The cell phone shuffle
• Flo TV multicasts Live TV on the third screen
• Controlling the home from the phone
• Airvana creates "Party Alerts" via femtocells
• Apple promotes tethering
• Microsoft researching "Vi-Fi"
• Boku enabling phone payments
• Medical services as apps
• Advertising and Promotion
• Key points
• Overview
  • Figure 29: U.S. adspend on wireless brands, 2007 and 2008
• Television advertising
  • Figure 30: Television Spot, "Driver can call Rusty Wallace for free," April 2009
  • Figure 31: Television Spot, "Daughters tell dad' s business to their faves," March 2009
• Prepaid and unlimited plans
  • Figure 32: Television Spot, "Woman shovels coins from wheelbarrow into fountain," April 2009
  • Figure 33: Television Spot, "The Mermaid talks to the Unicorn while sitting in a whirlpool--$30/month," May 2009
• Speed
  • Figure 34: Television Spot, "Bill Curtis is faster than Andy Roddick," April 2009
  • Figure 35: Television Spot, "Stadium is filled to the brim with beer, people swim in the beer/Atlanta," June 2009
• Web marketing
• AT&T
• Sprint
• T-Mobile
• Verizon Wireless
• Ownership
• Cell phone ownership trends
  • Figure 36: Trended ownership of cell phones, by age, by household income, May 2005-March 2009
• Teen ownership
  • Figure 37: Teen cell phone ownership, by age and gender, October 2007-December 2008*
• Service Plans and Contracts
• Voice plans
  • Figure 38: Voice plan subscription type, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 39: Voice plan subscription type, by household income, March 2009
• Data and content plans
  • Figure 40: Data and content subscriptions, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 41: Teen cell phone service subscriptions, by gender and age, March 2009
  • Figure 42: Data and entertainment subscriptions, by household income, March 2009
• Family vs. individual plans
  • Figure 43: Family and individual plan subscribers, by age, household income, and household size, October 2007-December 2008 vs. July 2008-March 2009
• Spend on Cell Service
• Increased spend across all income groups
  • Figure 44: Monthly bill, by age, October 2007-December 2008 vs. July 2008-March 2009
  • Figure 45: Monthly bill, by household income, October 2007-December 2008 vs. July 2008-March 2009
• Tenure with carrier
  • Figure 46: Tenure with current provider, by age, October 2007-December 2008
  • Figure 47: Tenure with current provider, by household income, October 2007-December 2008
• Amount willing to spend for unlimited voice
  • Figure 48: Average amount willing to pay for unlimited cell phone plan, by age and household income, March 2009
• Qualities that influence carrier selection
  • Figure 49: Qualities that cell phone influence carrier selection, March 2009
  • Figure 50: Qualities that influence cell phone carrier selection, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 51: Qualities that influence cell phone carrier selection, by household income, March 2009
• Impact of the phone on carrier selection
  • Figure 52: Impact of phone availability on carrier selection, by age, March 2009
• Cell Phone Features and Usage
• Awareness of cell phone features is low
  • Figure 53: Types of cell phone services callers have, by age, October 2007-December 2008*
• Communications services used within the past month
  • Figure 54: Cell phone features used in last 30 days, by age, July 2008-March 2009
• Entertainment Content Purchased for Cell Phones
• Downloadable entertainment content
  • Figure 55: Entertainment and personalization purchases in past month, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 56: Entertainment and personalization purchases in past month, by household income, March 2009
• Entertainment and personalization purchases by teens
  • Figure 57: Teen entertainment and personalization purchases, by gender and age, March 2009
• Cell phone "apps"
  • Figure 58: Average number of free and paid app downloads, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 59: Average number of free and paid app downloads, by age, March 2009
• Teens and apps
  • Figure 60: Teen free and paid app downloads, by gender and age, March 2009
• Interest in New Mobile Services
• Substantial interest in web browsing; limited interest in games and VoIP
  • Figure 61: Use of and interest in web browsing, VoIP, and downloading games, March 2009
• Interest in trying new services
  • Figure 62: Interest in new mobile services I, by age, March 2009
• Video-telephony, LBS marketing, and cell phone as payment system
  • Figure 63: Interest in new mobile services II, by age, March 2009
• The web browsing experience
  • Figure 64: Satisfaction with cell phone internet browsing, by gender, March 2009
• Mobile browsing activities
  • Figure 65: Applications for mobile browsing, by gender, March 2009
• Reservations about mobile browsing
  • Figure 66: Concerns about browsing the internet on a cell phone, by gender, March 2009
• Interest in cellular GPS
  • Figure 67: Interest in using GPS on cell phones, March 2009
• Satisfaction with Mobile Services: Half Empty
  • Figure 68: Satisfaction with mobile services, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 69: Satisfaction with mobile services, by household income, March 2009
• The Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
• Cell phone ownership trends
  • Figure 70: Cell phone ownership and average spending on last cell phone bill, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2008 -- March 2009
• Brand preferences
  • Figure 71: Cell phone carrier market share, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2008-March 2009
• Cell phone features and usage
• Cell phone features/awareness
  • Figure 72: Types of cell phone services callers have, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2008-March 2009
• Communications services used within the past month
  • Figure 73: Cell phone services used in last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2008-March 2009
• Family vs. individual plans
  • Figure 74: Family and individual plan subscribers, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2008-March 2009
• Hispanics by Language Spoken at Home
• Cell phone ownership trends
  • Figure 75: Cell phone ownership and average spend--Hispanics, by language spoken, July 2008-March 2009
• Brand preferences
  • Figure 76: Cell phone brand penetration--Hispanics, by language spoken, July 2008-March 2009
• Cell phone features and usage
• Cell phone features
  • Figure 77: Feature awareness--Hispanics, by language spoken, July 2008-March 2009
• Communications services used within the past month
  • Figure 78: Cell phone services used in last month--Hispanics, by language spoken, July 2008-March 2009
• Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
• Differences by gender
  • Figure 97: Qualities that influence carrier selection, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 98: Carrier vs. phone, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 99: Interest in new services, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 100: Downloaded cell phone entertainment purchases, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 101: Current use and desirability of cell phone activities, by gender, March 2009
• Impact of household income
  • Figure 102: Impact of phone on carrier selection, by household income, March 2009
  • Figure 103: Downloadable cell phone service purchases, by household income, March 2009
  • Figure 104: Desired services, by household income, March 2009
  • Figure 105: Current use and desirability of cell phone activities, by household income, March 2009
• Carrier penetration among internet users
  • Figure 106: Cell phone service provider in internet sample, by gender, March 2009
  • Figure 107: Cell phone service provider in internet sample, by age, March 2009
  • Figure 108: Cell phone service provider in internet sample, by household income, March 2009
  • Figure 109: Cell phone service provider in internet sample, by census region, March 2009
• Impact of age
  • Figure 110: Current use and desirability of cell phone activities, by age, March 2009
• Race/Hispanic origin
  • Figure 111: Family and individual plan subscribers--Hispanics, by language spoken in the home, July 2008-March 2009
• Attitudes towards Apps
  • Figure 112: Attitudes toward "Apps," by age, March 2009
• Appendix: Trade Associations