Abstract
About this report
Ice cream is truly one of life' s great pleasures, enjoyed by young and old, those who are healthy and those who are ill, and people of virtually every culture, in all parts of the country, at all times of the year. Companies compete to create the lowest fat and highest fat versions of it, and it is so important to so many that consumers who cannot consume dairy products demand it in non-dairy form. But it is also a very mature category that has been on grocer' s shelves since grocery stores came into existence.
Between 2003 and 2008, the ice cream and frozen novelties market grew by more than 16%, from $10.4 billion to $12.1 billion. Yet, a good deal of that growth happened prior to 2005. Since 2005, growth has slowed and certain segments of the market have begun to decline, while others continue to grow rapidly.
Mintel' s review of the ice cream and frozen novelty market provides a fresh perspective on the market as it provides:
- A thorough analysis of the factors that define successful brands in the category and a clear path to help less successful players improve their performance
- Deep profiles of consumer behavior in the category, with a clear read on consumer sentiment regarding the most recent innovations seen in the category
- Innovative ideas for improvement for players in any segment of the market
- A definitive read on the factors that have contributed to category growth
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Mature market with some opportunities for growth
- Ice cream parlors, private label growth and DIY ice cream challenge
at-home ice cream
- Ice cream segment remains flat due to lack of innovation
- Frozen novelties win with diet products
- Sorbet market overwhelmed by private label
- Frozen yogurt and tofu: prepare for take-off
- Supermarket sales dominate in the ice cream and frozen novelties category
- Domestic producers perform better than multinational brand holding
companies
- Nearly everyone eats ice cream, less so sorbet
- Brandy loyalty low
- Ice cream and frozen novelties with candy, frozen yogurt and sorbet best
paired with fruit
- Health claims are not all that important to consumers, but low fat tops
the list
- Consumers snack on and stock ice cream, but not frozen yogurt
- New fruit flavors will help grow the frozen yogurt segment
- Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- A mature market shows strong, but unsteady growth
- Bursting of the diet and ingredient bubble
- Sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt and frozen
novelties
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt,
and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt,
and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
- Walmart sales
- Competitive Context
- Key points
- Ice cream parlors as compelling alternatives
- New types of ice cream and frozen yogurt parlors emerge
- Fast food chains offering ice-cream-like products
- Dessert alternatives to ice cream
- Margin erosion and the rise of private label
- DIY ice cream and frozen yogurt
- Segment Performance
- Key points
- Largest, most mature segments remain mostly flat
- Organic products drive appeal within smaller segments
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
- Figure 4: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at FDMx, segmented by
type, 2006 and 2008
- Segment Performance--Ice Cream
- Key points
- Consumers form opinions and try ice creams based on what they can see at
the shelf
- End of the low-carb craze
- Ingredient innovation is key to further growth
- Sales and forecast of ice cream
- Figure 5: FDMx sales of ice cream, 2003-13
- Segment Performance--Frozen Novelties
- Key points
- Low-carb craze, and health brands showed mixed performance
- Strong performance of indulgent novelties, theme pops fizzle
- Getting it right with frozen novelties
- Sales and forecast of frozen novelties
- Figure 6: FDMx sales of frozen novelties, 2003-13
- Segment Performance--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
- Key points
- Private label encroaches
- Sorbet combos and premium offerings
- Sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Figure 7: FDMx sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2003-13
- Segment Performance--Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
- Key points
- Organic designation opens up growth opportunities
- Frozen yogurt/tofu consumers look for cues of quality; more upscale
- New claims spaces likely to drive growth in the future
- Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu
- Figure 8: FDMx sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2003-13
- Retail Channels
- Key points
- Consumer attitudes drive purchase location
- Supermarkets are the retail venue of choice for most ice cream purchases
- Walmart will not draw sales away from supermarkets
- Convenience can be a strong driver of channel choice
- Sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt, by channel
- Figure 9: FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, 2006
and 2008
- Retail Channels--Supermarkets
- Key points
- Most ice cream is (and will continue to be) sold in supermarkets
- Ice cream as a lure back to supermarkets
- Supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
- Figure 10: U.S. supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at
current prices, 2003-08
- Retail Channels--Drug Stores and Other
- Key points
- Convenience factor and fill-in trips help drive drug store sales
- Drug store and other sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
- Figure 11: U.S. drug store and other FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen
novelties, at current prices, 2003-08
- Retail Channels--Natural Channels
- Figure 12: Natural product supermarket sales of ice cream and other
frozen treats, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
- Figure 13: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and
other frozen treats, by organic, 2007-09
- Market Drivers
- Money to spend on ice cream and trend towards dining in
- Figure 14: Real disposable personal income per capita, by month, Jan
2006-Feb 2009
- Figure 15: Spending at restaurants compared to last year, November 2008
- An aging population poised to eat less ice cream
- Figure 16: Population, by age, 2004-14
- Kids in the household key to consumption
- Figure 17: Households by presence of children, 1998-2008
- Obesity concerns
- Figure 18: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among Americans, by age
and gender, 1988-2002
- Leading Companies
- Key points
- Wells Weight Watchers spurs growth, Blue Bell is "best."
- Private label shows significant growth
- Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen
yogurt
- Figure 19: Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet
and frozen yogurt at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February
22, 2009
- Brand Share--Ice Cream
- Key points
- Nestlé sees sales slip on diet, fad, and old products, soar on new products
- Unilever' s traditional and diet offerings perform poorly
- Product quality drives demand; most consumers buy only one at a time
- Manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream
- Figure 20: Selected brand sales and market share of ice cream at FDMx,
52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
- Brand Share--Frozen Novelties
- Key points
- Diet frozen novelties see great success
- New frozen novelty segment entrants see wins through consumer curiosity
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen novelties
- Figure 21: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen novelties at
FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
- Brand Share--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
- Key points
- Segment dominated by Nestlé specifically, Häagen-Dazs
- Manufacturer and brand sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Figure 22: Selected brand sales and market share of sherbet/sorbet/ices
at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
- Brand Share--Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
- Key points
- Organic and non-dairy trend still hot in ice cream
- New distribution helps drive stronger sales
- Flavor and ingredient innovations in frozen yogurt drive sales
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu
- Figure 23: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen yogurt/tofu
at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
- SPINS Natural Channel Data
- Natural channel sales by segment and brand
- Figure 24: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and
frozen novelties, by segment, 2007-09
- Soy dessert maker Turtle Mountain leads segment, other larger brands
challenged
- Figure 25: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of ice cream and
frozen novelties, 2007 and 2009
- Non-dairy sales strong, soy suffers to alternatives
- Figure 26: Natural product supermarket retail sales of non-dairy ice
cream and frozen novelties, by type, 2007-09
- Brand Qualities
- Blue Bell
- Ben & Jerry' s
- Breyers
- Edy' s/Dreyer' s
- Häagen-Dazs (and Häagen-Dazs Reserve)
- Klondike
- Wells Blue Bunny, Bomb Pops, and Weight Watchers
- Private Label
- Innovation and Innovators
- Ice cream
- Private label takes on the characteristics of branded ice cream
- Seasonal products hit the mainstream
- Private label organics
- Frozen novelties and frozen yogurt/tofu
- Novel forms
- Non-dairy/frozen yogurt/tofu
- Flavor
- Sorbets/sherbet/ices
- New drink-like flavors
- Health claims--antioxidants and vitamins
- Advertising and Promotion
- Overview
- Figure 27: TV advertising expenditures by leading ice cream parent
companies, 2007 and 2008
- The importance of packaging
- Breyers
- Figure 28: Unilever/Breyers television ad, 2008
- Häagen-Dazs
- Figure 29: Nestlé Häagen-Dazs television ad, 2008
- Blue Bell
- Figure 30: Blue bell ice cream/Blue Bell television ad, 2008
- Klondike
- Figure 31: Klondike television ad, 2008
- Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Consumption
- Key points
- Trended usage
- Figure 32: Trended household usage of ice cream and sherbet, frozen
yogurt, and frozen novelties, 2004-08
- Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption today
- Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12
months, by gender, February 2009
- Younger consumers display higher consumption
- Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12
months, by age, February 2009
- The impact of income on less traditional frozen treats
- Figure 35: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12
months, by HH income, February 2009
- Presence of children drives increased consumption
- Figure 36: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12
months, by children in HH, February 2009
- Brand Preferences
- Key points
- Brand loyalty low for all frozen treats
- Figure 37: Brand preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
- Gender roles in brand selection
- Figure 38: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by gender,
February 2009
- Figure 39: Frozen yogurt and gelato brand preferences, by gender,
February 2009
- The young and the fickle
- Figure 40: Ice cream brand and frozen novelty preferences, by age,
February 2009
- Southern loyalty
- Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by region,
February 2009
- Flavor Preferences
- Key points
- Preferences vary by treat type
- Figure 42: Flavor preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
- Ice cream and frozen novelty preferences
- Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by gender,
February 2009
- Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by age,
February 2009
- Figure 45: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by region,
February 2009
- Interest in mix-ins
- Figure 46: Interest in packaged mix-ins, February 2009
- The Health Factor
- Key points
- Low fat, low calorie, low sugar, low cholesterol
- Figure 47: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, February
2009
- Health matters: the role of gender, age and region in determining degree
- Figure 48: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by gender
and age, February 2009
- Is ice cream unhealthy?
- Figure 49: Ice cream health attitudes, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 50: Ice cream health attitudes, by age, February 2009
- Purchase Locations
- Key points
- Purchase locations
- Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase location, by age, February 2009
- Consumption Habits and Interest
- Key points
- Ice cream consumption--convenience and pairing
- Figure 52: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by age,
February 2009
- Figure 53: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by number
of children in household, February 2009
- Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits
- Figure 54: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by gender,
February 2009
- Figure 55: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by age,
February 2009
- Frozen Yogurt--Taste v. Health
- Key points
- Increasing frozen yogurt consumption
- Figure 56: Frozen yogurt preferences, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 57: Frozen yogurt preferences, by age, February 2009
- Figure 58: Frozen yogurt preferences, by region, February 2009
- The health factor
- Figure 59: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 60: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by region, February 2009
- Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
- Regional trends at play
- Figure 82: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12
months, by region, February 2009
- Figure 83: Frozen yogurt brand preferences, by region, February 2009
- Figure 84: Ice cream health attitudes, by region, February 2009
- Figure 85: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by region,
February 2009
- Additional income impacts
- Figure 86: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by HH income,
February 2009
- Figure 87: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by HH
income, February 2009
- Figure 88: Ice cream health attitudes, by HH income, February 2009
- Figure 89: Frozen treat purchase location, by HH income, February 2009
- Trended brand usage
- Figure 90: Top ten brands of ice cream used by households, 2006-08
- Frozen yogurt flavors
- Figure 91: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 92: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by age, February 2009
- Gelato flavors
- Figure 93: Gelato flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
- Ice cream behaviors and interests
- Figure 94: Eating ice cream, by gender, February 2009
- Appendix: Trade Associations
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