Abstract
Food inflation coupled with the recession present the bread and morning goods market with challenges and opportunities.
In this report Mintel looks at what bread and morning goods people are buying, why they are buying them and which companies are most likely to get their custom. Mintel also throws the spotlight on what manufacturers can do to encourage higher purchasing levels and increase sales (valued at £3.9 billion in 2008).
Key report themes
- The link between diet and health is tightening. How have bread and morning goods manufacturers risen to the challenge?
- Currency devaluation and poor weather have pushed up wheat and flour prices. Has this negatively affected sales?
- Own-label development is helping to shape the market. Has it gained market share at the expense of branded products?
- The evolution of ethically traded and organic sectors is widespread in the food and drink industry. Is the bread and morning goods market tapping into this trend?
- The recession has arrived. Will consumers cut down on premium bread to cut costs or does bread offer something else to consumers?
Table of Contents
- Issues in the Market
- Key themes
- Definitions
- Market in Brief
- Value growth bolstered by higher wheat prices
- NPD is thriving
- Demand fell
- Distribution
- The future of the market
- Comfort food and treats in the recession
- Internal Market Environment
- Key points
- Missed breakfast...
- ...does not help the bakery market
- New school regulations...
- ...have opened up opportunities
- Lunchtime eating habits...
- ...shape trends in bread and morning goods
- A switch from dieting to health
- Figure 1: Attitudes towards dieting, 2006-08
- The treat factor is still important
- Prevalence of obesity in adults
- Men -- the future problem
- Figure 2: Prevalence of obesity in adults, by gender, 2003 and 2010
- Special dietary needs provide opportunities
- Figure 3: Population suffering from food allergies, 2008
- Figure 4: Innovation in bread and bread products suitable for special
diets (% of bread launches), 2006-08
- Broader Market Environment
- Key points
- Price of flour
- Figure 5: UK: Consumer Price Index: bread and cereals, January
2006-November 2008
- An ageing population
- Cost-conscious 25-34-year-olds
- Younger generations influence purchasing habits
- Working women create opportunities
- Figure 6: Working status of women, 2004-08
- Figure 7: Working status of women, by social grade and presence of
children, 2007
- Student numbers rise
- Figure 8: Number of students in Higher Education institutions,
2000/01-2005/06
- Compact loaves for smaller households
- Figure 9: Trends in UK household size, 2003-13
- Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- Total value sales up 30%
- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, 2003-13
- Tapping into evolving trends
- Bread out performing morning goods
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, by sector,
2003-13
- The future of the market
- Forecast
- Healthy but slower growth
- Factors in the forecast
- Segment Performance
- Key points
- Bread
- Volume sales of bread are slipping
- Figure 15: UK retail volume and value sales of bread, 2003-13
- Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Trading up boosts value sales of bread
- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Sliced white bread making a comeback
- Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Brown bread boosted by its health credentials
- Figure 20: UK retail volume and value sales of brown bread, by type,
2006-08
- Speciality bread selling well
- Figure 21: UK retail volume and value sales of continental and
speciality bread, by type, 2006-08
- Flavour sensation
- Figure 22: UK retail value sales of speciality/ethnic bread, by type,
2006-08
- Plant bakeries dominate
- Figure 23: UK retail value sales of plant bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 24: Share of plant bread within UK retail value sales of bread,
by type, 2006-08
- Morning goods
- Figure 25: UK retail value sales of morning goods, 2003-13
- Plant bakers focus on morning goods
- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of morning goods, by source, 2006-08
- Seeking solace in comfort foods
- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of rolls, bakery snacks and foreign
recipe products, by source, 2006-08
- Healthy roll out
- Figure 28: UK retail value sales of rolls, by type, 2006-08
- Foreign recipe goods and fruited products
- Figure 29: UK retail value sales of bakery snacks and foreign recipe
products, by type, 2006-08
- Bagels bite
- Warm as toast
- Brand Shares
- Key points
- Brand shares -- bread
- Figure 30: Brand shares in plant-produced bread, 2006-08
- Investment pays off for Warburtons
- Premier Foods rescues Hovis and Nimble
- Own-label raises its game
- Brand shares -- morning goods
- Figure 31: Brand shares in plant-produced morning goods, 2006-08
- Warburtons warms up the category
- Own-label dominates NPD
- Slow growth for value brands
- Niche offerings
- Companies and Products
- Key points
- Brand map
- Figure 32: Brand map of bread and morning goods, 2009
- Allied Bakeries
- Next steps
- Premier Foods
- Warburtons
- Others
- Frank Robert & Sons Ltd
- Braces Bakery Ltd
- Greggs plc
- The Food Doctor
- Mission Foods
- Bakehouse
- BakeMark
- Cuisine de France
- Fine Lady Bakeries
- Inter Link Foods/McCambridge
- Kitchen Range Foods
- Krispy Kreme
- Maple Leaf Foods
- Brand Communication and Promotion
- Key points
- Adspend on bread and morning goods
- Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising spend on bakery goods,
2004-08
- Low priority for advertising
- Advertising by media
- Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries,
by media type, January-November 2008
- More extensive media coverage
- Adspend by advertiser
- Figure 35: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries,
by advertiser, 2004-08
- Allied Bakeries raises profile
- Supermarkets advertise on price
- Low priority for morning goods
- Advertising themes
- Family goodness
- Tradition
- Flavour and texture
- Discount/price
- Channels to Market
- Key points
- Grocery multiples increase share at expense of smaller outlets
- Figure 36: UK retail sales of bread and morning goods, by outlet type,
2006-08
- Grocery multiples dominate
- Craft bakers get crafty
- Bake-off heats up
- Retailer activity
- Asda
- Co-op
- Marks & Spencer
- Morrisons
- Sainsbury' s
- Tesco
- Waitrose
- Consumption of Bakery Products
- Key points
- Figure 37: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, November
2008
- Roll over
- From continental to international recipes
- Warm as toast
- Indulgent treats are still important
- Ready-made, not part-baked
- Morning goods/bakery snacks -- consumption by gender
- Figure 38: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by
gender, November 2008
- Male/female divide
- Socio-economics divide
- Location, location, location
- Further potential for Marks & Spencer
- Morning goods -- preference by age
- Figure 39: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by age,
November 2008
- Consumption of Bread
- Key points
- Trends in consumption of bread
- Figure 40: Frequency of eating bread, 2004-08
- Competition from other products intensifies
- White v brown
- Heavy consumption correlated with age and socio-economic group
- Figure 41: Demographic profile of daily bread consumers, 2008
- Types of bread eaten
- Figure 42: Type of bread eaten most often, 2004-08
- Re-evaluation of white bread
- Innovation boosts consumption
- Bread consumed in the last six months
- Figure 43: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Foreign = special
- Nutty about health
- Ethical concerns fall flat
- Sliced for convenience
- Figure 44: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by age, November
2008
- Age -- a key factor
- Socio-demographics and supermarkets
- Specialist free-from bread
- Appendix
- Consumer research
- Abbreviations
- Appendix -- Internal Market Environment
- Figure 57: Population suffering from food allergies, by demographics,
2008
- Appendix -- Broader Market Environment
- Figure 58: Trends and projections in UK household size, 2003-13
- Figure 59: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 2003-13
- Figure 60: Trends and projections in UK population, by socio-economic
group, 2003-13
- Appendix -- Consumption of Bakery Products
- Figure 61: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Figure 62: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Figure 63: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Appendix -- Consumption of Bread
- Figure 64: Frequency of any bread consumption, by demographics, 2008
- Figure 65: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic
sub-group, November 2008
- Figure 66: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic
sub-group, November 2008
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