Abstract
The cell phone is the technology product of the 21st century. Phones that provide the ability to fully utilize the Internet are becoming more widely available, shifting the focus of development away from voice and toward data services. It is also clear that the cell phone will increasingly compete with the digital camera, MP3, GPS, and PDA segments of the consumer electronics market.
More specifically, this report addresses the following questions:
- What is the current level of penetration and what segments under- and over-index on usage
- What is the current size of the cellular handset market and what types of devices will drive growth
- What recent innovations and trends are shaping current demand and the markets of the future
- What features and decision-making criteria have the greatest impact on the probability that a consumer will select a certain model of cellular phone
- How are companies marketing cellular devices and what approaches are likely to become more important
- What segments provide the greatest sales opportunities for cellular handset manufacturers
- Are manufacturers positioned to help grow sales of "unlocked" phones
- The continuing shift toward smart phones, and how growth in this segment is about to cause substantial changes to the market as consumers focus on interface and functionality in addition to product design
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Market sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Rapid growth behind, rapid growth ahead
- Soft spots in penetration among seniors
- Subsidies, style, new features drive sales
- Eyeing the competition: Wi-Fi phones, PMPs, GPS, Cameras and Laptops
- Style and cost most important to phone selection
- Online minorities more engaged with cell phones
- Cell phone technology seen as stylish
- Advertising and promotion
- Market Size and Forecast
- New functions drive growth despite poor macroeconomic conditions
- Figure 1: Total manufacturer sales of mobile phones, at current prices,
2002-12
- Figure 2: Total manufacturer sales of mobile phones, at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Figure 3: Units sold by manufacturers and average selling price, 2001-08
- Competitive Context
- Overview
- Skype Wi-Fi phones
- Convergence phones
- MP3 players
- Figure 4: MP3 player ownership, 2002-07
- Digital cameras
- Laptop
- PND (Personal Navigation Devices)
- Segment Performance
- Market transitions to smartphones
- Figure 5: Sales of smartphones versus traditional phones, 2006 and 2008
- Smartphones
- Smartphones the market' s growth engine
- Figure 6: Total manufacturer sales of smart mobile phones, at current
prices, 2004-10
- Figure 7: Total manufacturer sales of smart mobile phones, at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-10
- Carrier subsidies the driving engine behind smartphone sales
- Figure 8: Mobile phone unit sales and average selling price, 2004-08
- Traditional Phones
- Sales of "dumb" phones on the decline
- Figure 9: Total manufacturer sales of traditional mobile phones, at
current prices, 2004-10
- Figure 10: Total manufacturer sales of traditional mobile phones, at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-10
- Figure 11: Unit sales and average selling price of traditional mobile
phones, 2004-08
- Market Drivers
- Overview
- Carrier subsidies keep mass interest in low-cost flip phones intact
- Figure 12: Favorite styles of phone, by age, June 2008
- Premium phones driven by desire to utilize data and entertainment features
- Figure 13: Use of and future interest in cell phone features, June 2008
- Camera and picture messaging most popular features
- Figure 14: Additional services available and used on phones, by age,
February 2007-March 2008
- Features trickle up from 12-24s into older segments
- Figure 15: Phone features used in the last 30 days, by age, February
2007-March 2008
- Males aged 15-17 tend to be the most active users of advanced features
- Figure 16: Phone features used by teens in the last 30 days, by
gender/age, February 2007-March 2008
- Service contract expiration, lost phones, style drive phone purchases
- Figure 17: Reasons for acquiring last cell phone, by age, June 2008
- Most consumers will wait until their contract ends to get a new phone
- Figure 18: Action taken when last service contract expired, by age, June
2008
- Affluent more likely to get a new phone when contract expires
- Figure 19: Expected action when current cell phone contract ends, by
household income, June 2008
- Applications
- Google' s Android to drive global application development
- Open phone carrier systems
- 3G and D2D entertainment
- iPhone a driving force of smartphones in general
- Increased use of public transportation
- Interest in selling ads could increase subsidies of smartphones
- Leading Companies
- Motorola and LG ownership up, Nokia down
- Figure 20: Trended cell phone brand ownership, June 2002-June 2007
- Brand equity from other CE segments
- Global unit shipments
- Figure 21: Number of units shipped worldwide, by leading companies, 2006
and 2007
- Figure 22: Change in global share of shipments, by volume, Q1 2007 and
Q2 2008
- Brand Qualities
- Key point
- Wide array of products, carrier distribution make branding difficult
- Figure 23: Brand of cell phone owned, by age, February 2007-March 2008
- Figure 24: Penetration of leading handset manufacturers, by gender,
race/Hispanic origin, and household income, February 2007-March 2008
- Awareness high, loyalty low
- Figure 25: Brand familiarity, June 2008
- Figure 26: Brand awareness, by age, June 2008
- It' s the phone, not the brand
- Nokia phones
- Samsung phones
- Motorola phones
- Apple phones
- BlackBerry phones
- LG phones
- Sony Ericsson phones
- Palm phones
- Sidekick phones
- Advertising and Promotion
- Key points
- Campaign themes
- Adspend
- Figure 27: iPhone, BlackBerry and LG Chocolate bar ad spending, 2006 and
2007
- Third-party and UGM video reviews to become more important
- Manufacturer and phone-specific promotional websites
- Sidekick' s Pitch to young males
- The iPhone Guided Tour
- Television ads
- Social Networking and Mapping Features
- Figure 28: Helio television ad, 2008
- Figure 29: Helio television ad, 2008
- LG uses product placement to suggest its products are from the future
- Figure 30: LG television ad, 2008
- BlackBerry--for life, not just business use
- Figure 31: BlackBerry "Life on BlackBerry" TV Ad, 2008
- Combining humor with specific applications
- Figure 32: Motorola moto 9QC TV ad, 2008
- Figure 33: Motorola RAZR2 TV ad, 2008
- Figure 34: Verizon/palm TV ad, 2008
- Chasing the music enthusiast
- Figure 35: Motorola rokr TV ad, 2008
- Figure 36: Samsung electronic juke TV ad, 2008
- Figure 37: Samsung upstage TV ad, 2008
- Figure 38: Samsung upstage TV ad, 2008
- Innovation and Innovators
- The iPhone sets the standard and the stage
- Nokia' s N-series may revitalize the brand
- Samsung/Helio Fin--a flip-style smartphone
- BlackBerry appeals to business professionals
- Sony Ericsson raises the bar for camera phones
- Samsung appeals to serious music enthusiasts
- Fashion label-branded phones build identity with technology
- miCoach
- Garmin Nuvi
- Ownership
- Key points
- Penetration increases slowly in 2007
- Figure 39: Cell phone ownership, April 2000-June 2007
- Four in 10 seniors do not have a cell phone
- Figure 40: Cell phone ownership, by age, June 2008
- Nearly half of under-$25Ks do not have a cell phone
- Figure 41: Cell phone ownership, by household income, June 2008
- Attitudes and Motivations
- Key points
- Size/shape/style and cost key decision-making criteria
- Figure 42: Factors in selecting current phone, by age, June 2008
- Higher-income respondents seek style and pay more attention to interface
- Attitudes toward memory and screen size
- Figure 43: Attitudes towards phone screen size, internet and memory, by
age, June 2008
- Memory cards important to many 18-44 year olds
- Figure 44: Attitudes towards memory cards in phones, by age, June 2008
- 18-24s have the highest affinity for their phones
- Figure 45: Affinity for cell phones, by age, June 2008
- Brand associations
- Figure 46: Brand attributes, by brand, June 2008
- 18-34s more likely to describe cell phone brands as stylish
- Figure 47: Brands associated with term "stylish," by age, June 2008
- Features and Cost
- Key points
- Contacts, calendar, picture, and video are top
- Figure 48: The phone versus other handhelds for use in internet, music,
GPS, and video, June 2008
- 18-34 year olds spend more on phones
- Figure 49: Cost of most recently acquired cell phone, by age, June 2008
- Age more relevant to spend than income
- Figure 50: Cost of most recently aqcuired cell phone, by household
income, June 2008
- Race and Hispanic Origin
- Key point
- Hispanics and blacks under-index on usage
- Figure 51: Cell phone ownership, by race/Hispanic origin, February
2007-March 2008
- Figure 52: Cell phone ownership, by Hispanic language preferences,
February 2007-March 2008
- Minorities online pay more for advanced features
- Figure 53: Cost of most recently acquired cell phone, by race/Hispanic
origin, June 2008
- Asians and blacks more likely to acquire new phone at end of contract
- Figure 54: Reasons for acquiring last cell phone, by race/Hispanic
origin, June 2008
- Minorities more likely to use advanced features and services
- Figure 55: Cell phone services used in the last 30 days, by
race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
- Size/shape/style and prices are important considerations for all segments
- Figure 56: Factors in selecting current phone, by race/Hispanic origin,
June 2008
- Minorities more likely to report that they "love" their phone
- Figure 57: Attitudes towards cell phones, by race/Hispanic origin, June
2008
- Appendix: Trade Associations
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