About this report
The specialist mortgage sector has been in absolute turmoil over the past two years with certain product areas such as sub-prime under threat of extinction. Having previously experienced a sustained period of growth, development and innovation, the industry is now battling to survive the onslaught of the liquidity drought, facilitated by the US sub-prime crisis.
In this report, Mintel asks�c
- How has the global credit crisis impacted the market for specialist mortgage lending?
- Which lenders have exited the market and which remain?
- What effect is recession having on the sector?
- How are lenders and intermediaries responding to these challenging conditions?
- How will the specialist mortgage market look post-credit crunch?
- Who will be the winners and the losers?
- What is the current size of the market and its prospects for future growth?
- Issues in the Market
- In this report, Mintel asks...
- Report scope and definitions
- Types of borrower
- Abbreviations
- Market in Brief
- A market in rapid decline
- Figure 1: Gross mortgage lending, 2005-09
- Recession-linked factors will expand the non-prime population
- The crisis will lead to greater regulatory control and scrutiny
- Funding problems have led to a sharp fall in specialist products and
providers
- Lenders cut back on marketing
- Downturn hits intermediary business
- Uncertain outlook for the specialist mortgage market
- A third of consumers have been affected by at least one credit risk factor
- Figure 2: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
June 2009
- Nearly four million UK adults are credit-impaired...
- Figure 3: Segmentation of UK population and mortgage holders, by credit
risk, June 2009
- ...of which, one in seven have recently been rejected for a mortgage or
remortgage
- External Environment and Market Drivers
- Key points
- Summary of the main macroeconomic indicators
- Interest rate cuts benefit tracker-mortgage borrowers
- LIBOR and base rate gap
- Figure 4: Bank of England base rate and three-month (monthly average)
LIBOR, January 2003-June 2009
- Insight and implication
- The debt mountain continues to grow
- Figure 5: The value of personal sector debt (mortgages and consumer
credit) and as a proportion of total PDI, at current prices, 1999-2008
- Insight and implication
- Other indicators also paint a gloomy picture
- CCJs were up 4% in 2008
- Figure 6: Consumer CCJs registered, satisfied and cancelled -- England
and Wales, 2003-08
- Insight and implication
- Individual insolvencies expected to soar in 2009
- Figure 7: Individual bankruptcies and IVAs in England and Wales (not
seasonally adjusted), 2003-08
- Insight and implication
- Changing social trends fuel demand for rented property
- Buy-to-let arrears and repossessions up
- Figure 8: Buy-to-let mortgages three or more months in arrears and with
receiver of rent in place, 2007 and 2008
- Insight and implication
- A growing self-employed population will sustain demand for self-cert
- Figure 9: Number of self-employed in the UK, by gender, 2000-09 (Quarter
1)
- Insight and implication
- Financial activity starting to pick up
- Figure 10: Savings, investment, borrowing and debt repayment --
consumers' expected activity, quarterly indices, June 2002-March 2009
- Borrowing and buying intentions are also up
- Figure 11: Expected mortgage and property purchase activity, quarterly
indices, Q3/Q4 2002-Q1/Q2 2009
- Historical Context and Crisis Impact
- Key points
- A changing mortgage landscape
- The rise of specialist lenders
- Figure 12: Total mortgage balances outstanding, by type of lender,
1993-2009 (quarterly)
- Boom years come to an end
- Liquidity crisis forces major market contraction
- Consumers blame crisis on lenders
- Figure 13: Agreement with statements about the state of the housing and
mortgage markets, January 2009
- Government intervention to improve liquidity
- Bank of England extends quantitative easing
- Homeowners Mortgage Support
- Regulation Round-up
- Key points
- The current regulatory system needs updating
- Buy-to-let lending to come under FSA remit?
- LTV and LTI caps up for debate
- Self-cert under threat
- FSA' s warning to intermediaries
- Commission-based remuneration under scrutiny
- Potential extension of the RDR
- Competitive Context
- Key points
- Total gross mortgage lending was down by more than a quarter in 2008
- Figure 14: Gross mortgage lending, by type of loan, 2004-08
- Market for secured homeowner loans also hit by liquidity crisis
- Figure 15: Value of new further advances and secured personal loans,
2004-08
- Insight and implication
- Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
- Figure 16: Specialist mortgage market -- SWOT analysis, 2009
- The Mortgage Market in Context
- Key points
- Credit crunch slows housing activity
- Figure 18: Number of UK residential property transactions with a value
of £40,000 upwards -- seasonally adjusted, Q2 2005-Q2 2009
- 2008 saw a sharp drop in house prices...
- Figure 19: Annual house price growth in the UK -- comparison of four
sources, 2003-08 (Quarter 4)
- ...but start to pick up in mid-2009
- Mortgage approvals have also risen recently
- Figure 20: Number of monthly mortgage approvals for home purchase, by
sector, June 2007-June 2009
- Market Size
- Key points
- Around five million mortgages are held by non-prime borrowers
- Figure 21: Estimated breakdown of the UK mortgage market -- number of
outstanding prime versus non-prime mortgages, 2008 and 2009
- New specialist lending falls sharply
- Figure 22: Breakdown of gross mortgage lending, by specialist sector,
2005-09
- Insight and implication
- New buy-to-let business severely hampered by the crunch
- Figure 23: Number and value of new buy-to-let mortgage advances, 2000-09
- Insight and implication
- Market Share
- Key points
- Buy-to-let lender rankings
- Figure 24: Estimated market share of the top buy-to-let mortgage
lenders, by amounts outstanding, 2008
- Crisis impact
- Lenders' overall market position prior to the crisis
- Crisis consolidates the market
- Figure 25: Lenders' share of the mortgage market, by amounts
outstanding, 2007 and 2008
- Lloyds Banking Group was responsible for 30% of new mortgage advances in
2008
- Figure 26: Lenders' share of the mortgage market, by gross advances,
2007 and 2008
- Companies and Products
- Key points
- All change
- A much slimmer market post-crunch
- Figure 27: Summary of main providers of specialist mortgage products,
August 2009
- Lenders retreat en masse
- Figure 28: Lenders who have withdrawn from the specialist mortgage
market, 2008 and 2009
- Key player profiles
- Beacon Homeloans
- BM Solutions/HBOS
- Godiva Mortgages/Coventry Building Society
- Platform
- The Mortgage Works/Nationwide Specialist Lending
- Brand Communication and Promotion
- Key points
- Credit crunch suppresses mortgage adspend
- Figure 29: Total advertising expenditure on mortgage products and
services, 2004/05-2008/09
- Advertising by intermediaries has seen the sharpest decline
- Figure 30: Mortgage advertising expendtiure, by product category,
2006/07-2008/09
- Three equity release scheme providers make the top ten mortgage
advertisers in 2008/09
- Figure 31: Mortgage advertising expendtiure, by top ten advertisers,
2006/07-2008/09
- Specialist mortgage lenders cut back on advertising
- Figure 32: Advertising expenditure by selected specialist mortgage
lenders/advisers, 2006/07-2008/09
- Specialists switch to direct mail to target existing customers
- Figure 33: Distribution of adspend, by media type -- all mortgages
adspend vs specialist providers, 2008/09
- Channels to Market
- Key points
- Specialist mortgage sector has traditionally been heavily reliant on
intermediaries
- Decline in the number of mortgage intermediaries
- Figure 34: Number of mortgage ARs and DA intermediary firms, by type,
2006-08
- Intermediaries account for over half of all new mortgage lending
- Figure 35: Intermediaries' share of new mortgage business, by type of
loan, 2006-08
- Intermediaries face tough year in 2009
- The Consumer -- Credit Risk Factors
- Key points
- Survey background
- Changing jobs and addresses are common events that can affect a person' s
credit rating
- Figure 36: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
2008 and 2009
- Insight and implication
- A quarter of renters have moved addresses at least twice in the past three
years
- Figure 37: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
by gender and tenure, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- The under-45s present the greatest credit risk
- Figure 38: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
by age, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- C2s have the highest bankruptcy rate, while Es are most likely to incur a
CCJ
- Figure 39: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
by socio-economic group, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- Low-to-moderate income groups are more likely to have a history of adverse
credit
- Figure 40: Credit risk factors experienced during the past three years,
by household income, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- One in 20 people have experienced three or more risk factors
- Figure 41: Number of credit risk factors experienced during the past
three years, June 2009
- A small proportion of mortgage holders could experience difficulty
remortgaging...
- Figure 42: Number of credit risk factors experienced during the past
three years, by gender and tenure, June 2009
- ...while many potential first-time buyers could be prevented from making
the first step onto the ladder
- Figure 43: Number of credit risk factors experienced during the past
three years, by age, June 2009
- The Consumer -- Credit Profiling
- Key points
- Risk assessment
- Over 15 million people are regarded as non-prime
- Figure 44: Size of the non-prime population, 2008 and 2009
- Some 8% of mortgage holders are credit-impaired
- Figure 45: Segmentation of UK population and mortgage holders, by credit
risk, June 2009
- Demographic overview of the main credit risk groups
- Figure 46: Leading characteristics of the main credit risk groups, June
2009
- The Consumer -- Mortgage Ownership
- Key points
- Specialist mortgages are very niche
- Figure 47: Mortgage ownership, by type of product, 2008 and 2009
- Insight and implication
- Could high LTVs increase the chance of arrears?
- Figure 48: Mortgage ownership, by credit risk group, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- Those with multiple credit risk factors are more likely to have a mortgage
- Figure 49: Mortgage ownership, by credit risk group, June 2009
- Some 220,000 mortgages have LTVs of 100% or higher
- Figure 50: Mortgage ownership, by mortgage holders, June 2009
- Insight and implication
- Appendix -- Consumer Credit Profile
- Figure 53: Credit profile of UK adults, by demographics, June 2009
- Appendix -- Profile of Mortgage Holders
- Figure 54: Profile of mortgage holders, by demographics, June 2009
|
相關報告
|
