OTT(over-the-top)視訊服務市場預測(2008-2012年)：最佳實務典範・ROI・ISTB分析

Abstract

San Jose, CA: August 12, 2009 - A new global report from MRG shows how OTT Over-the-Top) video services will offer new opportunities for IPTV & Cable Operators and media owners to expand their reach through TV-centric open Internet services.

Revenues in 2012 should exceed $11 billion, with Internet Set-top Box (ISTB) penetration (including game consoles) exceeding 57 million. Besides cost containment practices, the report identifies what kinds of OTT video content consumers want (and will pay for), based on a global consumer survey done specifically for this report.

The real question isn' t whether Service Providers (SPs) should implement OTT, as most analysts already agree,” states MRG Analyst Mike Galli. “The real question is how and with what results, which is why we did a ROI analysis for Tier-1, 2 and 3 IPTV SPs explaining the best practices, cost-loading and break-even points for several different configurations of OTT service.”

The report also disputes the belief that “smart TVs” (TVs with Ethernet ports) will replace ISTBs in the next five years, as predicted by some CE promoters. “ISTBs will continue to be strong players beyond 2015,” states MRG President Gary Schultz. “This is illustrated by the evolutionary path ISTBs must follow to stay ahead of the fast changing OTT business.” The report further asserts that many HD (High-Definition) TVs will rely on (external) ISTBs to provide the needed storage, hybrid-processing, progressive download, and EPG-processing capability at an affordable price to deliver HD content.

Also included is a review of test installations of ISTBs done in a typical home using over platforms and services. Additionally, over 50 companies are profiled in the categories of “OTT Service Providers” (Amazon, Apple, Disney, FetchTV, VUDU, ZillionTV and others); “Platforms” (2Wire, ADB, Netgem, Roku, TiVo and others); and “Content Delivery Networks (CDNs)” (Akamai, Abacast, Limelight, IP Vision, and others). OTT Video Services & Forecast - 2008-2012: Best Practice, ROI, & ISTB

“Analysis” is 138 pages and is available in a printed English language edition.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 What is Over-the-Top Video (OTT) Compared with IPTV?
  • 1.1.1 Hybrid Services Are Becoming Popular in Various Global Regions
  • 1.1.2 Lean Back/Lean Forward?
  • 1.1.3 Mobility and Devices
• 1.2 Key Findings

2. Background on the Video Service Industry

• 2.1 Business Overview
  • 2.1.1 The Movie Business & “Release Windows”
  • 2.1.2 The TV Business
• 2.2 Failed OTT Businesses - Why Did They Fail?
  • 2.2.1 Movie Beam (1,800 Subscribers After 4 Years)
  • 2.2.2 Akimbo
• 2.3 Legal Issues
  • 2.3.1 Net Neutrality
  • 2.3.2 The Fair Use Doctrine
  • 2.3.3 The Digital Millennium Copyright Act
  • 2.3.4 Viacom' s Lawsuit Against Google, YouTube (U.S.)
  • 2.3.5 Pro-IP Act of 2007
  • 2.3.6 The Napster, Grokster Decisions

3. Architecture Overview

• 3.1 Wireless and Wireline - Home Networks
• 3.2 QoS/QoE - How Acquired and Maintained on OTT
• 3.3 Unicast vs. Multicast
• 3.4 Downloading, Progressive Downloading and Streaming
• 3.5 Traditional CDNs, P2P and P4P
• 3.6 Transcoders - And Why They Are Needed
• 3.7 Bandwidth (HD vs. SD) - How to Enable HD
• 3.8 ISTBs/Game Consoles
• 3.9 PC-centric IPTV Over Managed Networks
• 3.10 UI/EPG/Middleware - The Value of a Superb UI
• 3.11 Navigation Devices - Mice, Keyboards and Remotes

4. Business Models for OTT Service - What' s in it for the SPs?

• 4.1 Pure Models - Rent, Buy, Subscription, Ad Sponsored
  • 4.1.1 Rental OTT Models
  • 4.1.2 Purchase OTT Models
  • 4.1.3 Subscription OTT Models
  • 4.1.4 Ad Sponsored OTT Models
• 4.2 Mixed Source Models
  • 4.2.1 U.S. OTT Services (“Skinny” Basic) Cable/TiVo (SD Only)
  • 4.2.2 France OTT Service
  • 4.2.3 U.K. OTT Service
  • 4.2.4 Plan A: Internet + Over-the-Air (DTT) to the TV
  • 4.2.5 Plan B: Internet + Cable Using TiVo STB to the TV
  • 4.2.6 Plan C: DVD Rental + Internet
  • 4.2.7 Consumer Pricing Overview
• 4.3 OTT Consumer Service Ratings
• 4.4 Traditional VOD Content Models - Revenue Splits
• 4.5 Traditional DVD Business Models
• 4.6 Break-even Analysis for OTT Service (SP Perspective)
  • 4.6.1 Tier-1 SP Break-even Analysis
  • 4.6.2 Tier-2 Break-even Analysis
  • 4.6.3 Tier-3 Break-even Analysis
• 4.7 Case Study: Toledo Telephone and VUDU
  • 4.7.1 Conclusion

5. Forecasts

• 5.1 What Do We Know?
• 5.2 Global Forecasts
• 5.3 Cable/Satellite/IPTV Operators
• 5.4 Cinema Theater Business
• 5.5 DVD Sales - U.S.
• 5.6 Western Europe DVD Sales
• 5.7 U.S. Online Video
• 5.8 Online Video Ad Revenue
• 5.9 Internet Set-top Box (ISTB) & OTT Service Forecast
• 5.10 Marriage of OTT, Hybrid & IPTV

6. Recommendations and Conclusions for Service Providers

• 6.1 Ratings for OTT Service
• 6.2 Paid Versus Free Content
• 6.3 Importance of Device Types
• 6.4 General Recommendations
• 6.5 Recommendations for Cable or IPTV Operators (For Adding OTT Service)
• 6.6 Recommendations for Internet Service Providers (ISPs or BBSPs)
• 6.7 Recommendations for Retail Chains
• 6.8 Conclusion

7. Addendum #1

• 7.1 Company Profiles - Platforms
  • 7.1.1 2Wire
  • 7.1.2 ADB
  • 7.1.3 Amino Communications Ltd.
  • 7.1.4 BigBand Networks, Inc.
  • 7.1.5 Boxee
  • 7.1.6 Brightcove Inc.
  • 7.1.7 Cisco (Scientific-Atlanta)
  • 7.1.8 Entone, Inc.
  • 7.1.9 Irdeto
  • 7.1.10 Jinni
  • 7.1.11 LG Electronics USA, Inc.
  • 7.1.12 Macrovision Solutions Corporation
  • 7.1.13 Mariner Partners Inc.
  • 7.1.14 Motorola, Inc.
  • 7.1.15 Netgem
  • 7.1.16 Rhozet (Harmonic)
  • 7.1.17 Roku, Inc.
  • 7.1.18 Sezmi
  • 7.1.19 Sling Media, Inc.
  • 7.1.20 Verivue
• 7.2 Company Profiles - OTT Service Providers
  • 7.2.1 Amazon.com, Inc.
  • 7.2.2 Apple Inc.
  • 7.2.3 Blockbuster Inc.
  • 7.2.4 Comcast (Fancast)
  • 7.2.5 Crackle, Inc.
  • 7.2.6 Disney
  • 7.2.7 ESPN 360
  • 7.2.8 BBC (I-Player) (PC Now, Multi-platform Later)
  • 7.2.9 Fetch TV
  • 7.2.10 Google/YouTube
  • 7.2.11 Hulu
  • 7.2.12 Microsoft Corporation
  • 7.2.13 Netflix, Inc. (Online Video Service)
  • 7.2.14 Sonic Solutions (CinemaNow)
  • 7.2.15 Sony (OTT Service)
  • 7.2.16 TiVo Inc.
  • 7.2.17 Veoh Networks, Inc.
  • 7.2.18 VUDU, Inc. (ISTB + Service)
  • 7.2.19 Yahoo! Inc. (Video Service)
  • 7.2.20 ZillionTV (Online Service/ISTB)
• 7.3 Company Profiles - CDNs (Content Distribution Network)
  • 7.3.1 Abacast, Inc.
  • 7.3.2 Akamai Technologies, Inc.
  • 7.3.3 Limelight Networks, Inc.
  • 7.3.4 IP Vision
  • 7.3.5 mirada plc

8. Addendum #2: Test Installations

• 8.1 Product and Service Reviews
• 8.2 Testbed Parameters
• 8.3 Product Section
  • 8.3.1 TiVo HD DVR and TiVo Wireless Adaptor (G)
  • 8.3.2 Roku Player
  • 8.3.3 Sling Media
  • 8.3.4 PC Laptop
  • 8.3.5 Netbook
• 8.4 Service Review Section
  • 8.4.1 Netflix
  • 8.4.2 CinemaNow
  • 8.4.3 Amazon
  • 8.4.4 TiVo
  • 8.4.5 Test Results

9. Addendum #3 - Glossary of Terms

10. Addendum #4 - Miscellaneous Specifications

• 10.1 Appendix A: PC to TV Models
  • 10.1.1 Internet + Over-the-Air to the TV
  • 10.1.2 Internet + Cable to the TV Set
  • 10.1.3 Break-even Analysis for the PC Models
• 10.2 Appendix B: ISTB Specifications
• 10.3 Appendix C: Internet Survey Demographics
• 10.4 Appendix D: Break-even (ROI) Analysis Data - Tier-1, 2, 3
• 10.5 Appendix E: Condensed Break-even Analysis Data

11. Index of Companies

Table of Figures

• Figure 1-1: HDTV: Rear Panel Connections Simple OTT/IPTV Installation
• Figure 2-1: U.S. Revenue in 2008 with Movie Release Windows
• Figure 3-1: Zeugma' s QoE Diagram for OTT Service
• Figure 3-2: Comparison of a Traditional CDN with P2P and P4P
• Figure 3-3: Rhozet' s Architecture for Webcasting
• Figure 3-4: RipCode' s System Overview for Transcoding
• Figure 3-5: Roku Screen Shot
• Figure 3-6: The Roku Remote Control
• Figure 3-7: The Hillcrest “Loop” Remote Control
• Figure 3-8: The Logitech MX Air
• Figure 3-9: The Logitech 1100 Universal Remote Control
• Figure 3-10: HDTV: Rear Panel Connections Simple OTT/IPTV Installation
• Figure 4-1: The DVD Business Landscape
• Figure 5-1: Audience Demographics By Age Groups
• Figure 5-2: U.S. DVD Sales for 2008 and 2009 ($USD, Millions)
• Figure 5-3: U.S. Domestic Home Video Transactions (Millions)
• Figure 5-4: U.S. Online Video Ad Revenue
• Figure 5-5: Ad-supported Online TV Revenues
• Figure 5-6: Net Advertising Revenues
• Figure 5-7: Internet-to-TV CE Devices (ISTBs)(000)
• Figure 5-8: Share of Market By Internet- to-TV (ISTB) Device - 2008 to 2012
• Figure 5-9: Market Share By Region
• Figure 5-10: Revenue Growth By Region: 2008-2012
• Figure 5-11: ISTB Evolution - Assumptions From Driving ISTB Forecast
• Figure 6-1: Ratings for OTT Services (Phone Survey)
• Figure 6-2: Viewing Habits of Internet Viewers (Internet Survey)
• Figure 6-3: Ratings of Paid Versus Ad Based Content
• Figure 6-4: Ratings of OTT Devices By Type (Phone Survey)
• Figure 6-5: Usage of Device Types (Internet Survey)
• Figure 7-1: 2Wire' s MediaPortal Software Interface
• Figure 7-2: 2Wire' s MediaPoint ISTB
• Figure 7-3: The ADB “Set-Back Box”
• Figure 7-4: The ADB “Set-Back Box” Installed
• Figure 7-5: Screen Shot of Mariner' s frostt Product
• Figure 7-6: Mariner' s HomeVu Product
• Figure 7-7: The Netgem ISTB
• Figure 7-8: The Roku Player ISTB
• Figure 7-9: Sling' s SlingCatcher Product
• Figure 7-10: The Apple TV User Interface
• Figure 7-11: Blockbuster' s Ad with 2Wire' s MediaPoint ISTB
• Figure 7-12: YouTube' s XL Interface
• Figure 7-13: Sony PS3 with Screen Shot
• Figure 7-14: The VUDU XL Product
• Figure 10-1: Internet Survey Age Demographics

Table of Tables

• Table 1-1: IPTV vs. OTT STBs
• Table 3-1: Comparison of IP Delivery Techniques
• Table 4-1: Basic Cable/TiVo (Monthly, $USD)
• Table 4-2: France OTT - One Movie + DTT ($USD)
• Table 4-3: U.K. OTT - One Movie + DTT ($USD)
• Table 4-4: Comparison of OTT Services in the U.S., France and the U.K. ($USD)
• Table 4-5: OTT Consumer Mixed Source Model Comparisons (Per Month Payment, $USD)
• Table 4-6: OTT Consumer Service Ratings
• Table 4-7: Tier-1 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 4-8: Tier-2 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 4-9: Tier-3 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 5-1: Global Active Digital Media Universe
• Table 5-2: U.S. Cable, Satellite and IPTV Operators
• Table 5-3: DIRECTV' s Business Overview ($USD)
• Table 5-4: DISH Network' s Business Overview ($USD)
• Table 5-5: Sky' s Business Overview ($USD), Subs Are Millions
• Table 5-6: U.S. Cinema Theater Revenue, Admissions and Ticket Prices ($USD, Billions)
• Table 5-7: U.K. Cinema Theater Revenue, Admissions and Ticket Prices (£' s and USD, Millions)
• Table 5-8: Western Europe DVD/BD Sales By Percentage
• Table 5-9: Western Europe DVD/BD Revenue ($USD, Millions)
• Table 5-10: Top U.S. Online Video Properties By Unique Viewers
• Table 5-11: Global OTT/ISTB Forecast (Thousands): Installed Base (ISTB vs. PC Devices)
• Table 5-12: OTT Video Service Revenues: Global ($USD)
• Table 5-13: Regional Share of OTT ISTB Market (%)
• Table 5-14: Regional Share of OTT Service Revenue ($M USD)
• Table 10-1: Tier-1 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-2: Tier-2 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-3: Tier-3 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-4: ISTB + STB + DVD/Blu-ray General Specifications
• Table 10-5: Internet Survey Respondents By Region
• Table 10-6: Input Data for ROI Analysis ($USD) (Section 4.6 Above)
• Table 10-7: Condensed ROI (Break-even) Analysis for Added OTT Video Service ($USD)