低排放汽車市場 - COVID-19 的增長、趨勢、影響和預測 (2023-2028)

今年低排放汽車市場價值 1260 億美元。

預計在未來五年內將達到 2920 億美元，並有望在預測期內保持 15% 的複合年增長率。

主要亮點

• COVID-19 大流行迫使大約 95% 的汽車公司停業。 在全球範圍內，封鎖的影響是巨大的，製造活動的暫停在汽車行業是前所未有的。 然而，隨著經濟活動的恢復和全球汽車產量的增加，市場再次回暖。
• 從中期來看，政府支持電動汽車發展的政策和擴大電動汽車充電基礎設施的計劃預計在預測期內仍將是市場的強勁推動力。 幾個地方政府已宣布計劃在未來幾年內使電動汽車佔新車銷量的一定比例。
• 2020 年電動汽車銷量將達到創紀錄的 300 萬輛，比 2019 年增長 40%。 這種強勁的增長與全球汽車市場的放緩形成鮮明對比，全球汽車市場由於 COVID-19 危機導致整體汽車銷量下降了 16%。 經過十年的快速增長，道路上行駛的電動汽車已超過 1000 萬輛，約佔全球汽車保有量的 1%。 至於 2030 年，我們預測到 2050 年，在淨零排放情景下，將有 3 億輛電動汽車上路，佔新車銷量的 60% 以上（2020 年僅為 4.6%）。 2021 年銷售的早期市場數據表明主要市場的快速增長。
• 由於需要滿足未來的能源需求，電動汽車 (EV) 市場正在經歷顯著增長。 實現可持續交通的需求對於推動電動汽車的需求至關重要。
• 電動汽車市場正在成為汽車行業不可或缺的一部分。 電動汽車提供了一條實現能源效率同時減少污染物和其他溫室氣體排放的途徑。 對環境的日益關注和積極的政府舉措是推動市場增長的主要因素。 不斷上升的能源成本和新興能源效率技術之間的競爭也有望推動市場增長。

低污染汽車市場趨勢

有利的政府政策和監管規範有望推動市場

• 電動汽車銷售仍受政策法規的嚴重影響。
• 這在很大程度上取決於環境。 10個主要電動汽車普及國家（中國、美國、挪威、德國、日本、英國、法國、瑞典、加拿大、荷蘭等）均實施了各種政策促進電動汽車銷售。 主要例子包括公共採購計劃、促進電動汽車生產和採購的財政激勵措施，以及降低使用成本（例如免費停車）。
• 市場還受到各種行政級別監管政策的推動，例如根據燃油效率標準和廢氣性能限制車輛分配。
• 例如，Bharat Stage (BS) 標準旨在通過減少尾氣污染物的允許量來加強監管。 例如，2017 年推出的 BS-IV 允許 50ppm 的硫，但從 2020 年開始適用的新 BS-VI 將允許 10ppm 的硫、80mg 的 NOx（柴油）和 4.5% 的顆粒物. mg/km，碳氫化合物和NOx加起來只允許170mg/km。
• 憑藉 FAME 和 FAME II 政策，印度為投資者和製造商提供了一個有吸引力的選擇來建立電動汽車工廠，從而加速綠色汽車的採用。 許多城市和國家正在改革公共交通，補貼正在用電動公交車取代 ICE 公交車。 例如，到2021年，印度公共交通系統中將有近1000輛電動公交車。 孟買擁有 246 輛電動公交車，在全國處於領先地位。
• 泰國在全國安裝了 1000 個充電站。 其中一項重大舉措是到 2022 年底擁有 53,000 輛電動摩托車出租車，到 2025 年底擁有 5,000 輛電動公交車。 亞洲開發銀行和 Energy Absolute 簽署了一項 4800 萬美元的綠色貸款，用於資助泰國的全國電動汽車充電網絡。
• 馬來西亞宣布了其國家低碳城市 2030 計劃，其中包括在全國建立 200 個低碳區，從而進一步推廣電動汽車等替代性綠色交通方式。它可能成為 它還計劃到2030年建設2.5萬個公共充電站和10萬個私人充電站。

中國最具增長潛力

• 隨著快速城市化，中國決心減少道路交通車輛排放的污染物。 同時，它打算減少對進口碳氫化合物的依賴並支持其工業部門的發展。 中國是世界上最大的電動汽車生產國和消費國。 國內需求受到國家銷售目標、有利的立法、補貼和市政空氣質量目標的支撐。 例如
• 中國是世界上最大的電動汽車產業。 作為最大的電動汽車生產國，2021年中國電動汽車產量將達到350萬輛，同比增長1.6倍。 電動汽車市場年收入達到約1022億美元，為亞太地區最高。
• 中國實施了一項配額，要求製造商在 100% 電動或混合動力汽車的新車銷量中至少佔 10%。 此外，一些主要城市和省份正在施加越來越嚴格的限制。 例如，北京每月僅發放1萬輛內燃機汽車登記證，以鼓勵居民改用電動汽車。 通過這些措施，中國對國內電動汽車發展提出了堅定樂觀的前景，有望帶動市場。
• 為提高電動汽車採用率而出台的政府法規，以及該地區 OEM 和供應商為滿足中國汽車行業不斷增長的需求而採取的強勁擴張，將在預測期內推動市場增長。預計會創造一個光明的前景外表。 例如：
• 中國政府鼓勵人們使用電動汽車。 該國已經計劃逐步淘汰為當前一代拖拉機和建築設備提供動力的柴油。 該國計劃到 2040 年完全禁止柴油和汽油汽車。
• 在過去三年中，深圳為城市貨運部署了近 60,000 輛輕型卡車和麵包車，約占城市貨運車隊總數的 35%。
• 基於上述發展，預計低污染車輛在預測期內將顯著增長。

低污染汽車市場競爭者分析

• 低排放汽車市場的特點是既有老牌企業，也有小型初創企業。 目前也有很多區域性玩家集中在特定區域。 由於來自國內外市場的乘用車和電動巴士訂單不斷增加，比亞迪正在被研究為該市場的主要參與者。 2018年公司乘用車銷量227,152輛，銷量居中國所有企業之首。 比亞迪還收到了廣州總計 4,473 輛電動公交車的投標。 其他主要參與者包括特斯拉、戴姆勒、大眾汽車、豐田汽車、福特和吉利集團。
• 2022 年 4 月，意大利經濟發展部公佈了政府撥給汽車基金的 6.5 億財政資源，到 2030 年將提供總額為 87 億歐元（93.4 億美元）的資金。它已宣布規定為 2022-2023-2024 年每年分配歐元（6.99 億美元）。 購買電動、混合動力、插電式和內部加熱車輛的獎勵僅授予個人。 一小部分資金留給汽車共享公司購買電動、混合動力和插電式汽車。
• 加拿大政府於 2022 年 5 月制定了銷售義務，保證到 2035 年銷售的所有新小型汽車都將是 ZEV。 政府在該項目上投資高達 5.29 億加元（4.23 億美元）

其他好處

• Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
• 三個月的分析師支持

內容

第1章介紹

• 調查先決條件
• 調查範圍

第2章研究方法論

第 3 章執行摘要

第4章市場動態

• 市場驅動因素
• 市場製約因素
• 搬運工 5 力分析
  • 新進入者的威脅
  • 買方/消費者議價能力
  • 供應商的議價能力
  • 替代品的威脅
  • 競爭公司之間的敵對關係

第 5 章市場細分（基於價值的市場規模：10 億美元）

• 車輛類型
  • 乘用車
  • 商用車
• 汽車模型
  • 混合型
  • 輕度混合
  • 純電動汽車
• 地區
  • 北美
    • 美國
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥
    • 其他北美地區
  • 歐洲
    • 德國
    • 英國
    • 法國
    • 意大利
    • 西班牙
    • 其他歐洲地區
  • 亞太地區
    • 印度
    • 中國
    • 日本
    • 韓國
    • 其他亞太地區
  • 世界其他地區
    • 巴西
    • 沙特阿拉伯
    • 阿拉伯聯合酋長國
    • 南非

第6章競爭格局

• 供應商市場份額
• 公司簡介
  • Tesla Inc.
  • BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
  • Volkswagen AG
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • Hyundai Motor Company
  • Toyota Motor Corporation
  • Tata Motors Limited
  • BMW AG
  • AB Volvo

第7章 市場機會與今後動向

The low-emission vehicle market is valued at USD 126 billion in the current year. The market is expected to reach USD 292 billion by the next five years, registering a CAGR of 15% in revenue during the forecast period.

Key Highlights

• During the lockdowns, the COVID-19 pandemic compelled about 95% of all automotive companies to put their workforces on hold. Globally, the repercussions of the lockdown have been immense and unprecedented in the automotive sector due to the halt of manufacturing activities. However, the market has regained momentum as economic activities resume and vehicle production also rises worldwide.
• Over the medium term, Government policies to support the growth of electric vehicles and plans to enlarge the electric vehicle charging infrastructure are expected to remain prominent market drivers during the forecast period. Several regional governments have announced their plans to have a certain portion of their new vehicle sales be electric in the upcoming few years.
• Electric car sales reached a record 3 million in 2020, up 40% from 2019. This strong growth was a stark contrast to general car market sluggishness globally, with overall car sales down 16% due to the COVID-19 crisis. After a decade of rapid growth, over 10 million electric cars are on the road, representing ~1% of the global car stock. For 2030, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario projects 300 million electric cars on the road, accounting for over 60% of new car sales, compared with only 4.6% in 2020. Early market data for 2021 sales suggests rapid growth in significant markets.
• The electric vehicle (EV) market witnessed significant growth due to the need to address future energy requirements. The need to attain sustainable transportation is vital in driving electric vehicle demand.
• The electric vehicle market is becoming an integral part of the automotive industry. It represents a pathway toward achieving energy efficiency, along with reduced emissions of pollutants and other greenhouse gases. Increasing environmental concerns and favorable government initiatives are some of the major factors driving the market growth. Rising energy costs and competition among emerging energy efficiency technologies are also expected to fuel the market growth.

Low-Emission Vehicle Market Trends

Favorable Government Policies and Regulatory Norms are Expected to Drive the Market

• The sales of electric vehicles are still majorly driven by the polic
• y environment. The ten leading countries (such as China, United States, Norway, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Canada, and the Netherlands) in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the sales of electric vehicles. Primary examples of these programs and initiatives are public procurement programs, financial incentives to facilitate EV production and acquisition, and cutting their usage cost (e.g., by offering free parking).
• A variety of regulatory policies at different administrative levels, such as fuel-economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on emissions performance, are also driving the market.
• For instance, Bharat Stage (BS) norms aim at tighter regulations by reducing the permissible level of tailpipe pollutants. For example, BS-IV - introduced in 2017, allowed 50 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur, while the new and updated BS-VI - applicable from 2020, allows only ten ppm of sulfur, 80 mg of NOx(Diesel), 4.5 mg/km of particulate matter, 170 mg/km of hydrocarbon and NOx together.
• With its FAME and FAME II policies, India is providing attractive options for investors and manufacturers to set up EV plants in the country to propel the country toward a faster adoption of green vehicles. Public transportation across many cities and countries is being reviewed, and subsequently, through subsidies, Electric buses are replacing ICE buses. For instance, in 2021, there were close to one thousand electric buses used in public transport in India. With 246 e-buses, Mumbai ranked the top in the country.
• Thailand has 1,000 charging stations across the country. One of their primary efforts is to have 53,000 electric motorcycle taxis and 5,000 electric buses on the road by the end of 2022 and 2025, respectively. The Asian Development Bank and Energy Absolute have signed a USD 48 million green loan to fund Thailand's nationwide electric vehicle charging network.
• The announcement of Malaysia's National Low Carbon Cities 2030 plan includes the creation of 200 low-carbon zones around the country, which might result in a more significant push for green transportation alternatives, including electric vehicles. Malaysia also intends to construct 25,000 public and 100,000 private charging stations by 2030.

China Is Expected To See Highest Growth

• With rapid urbanization, China is determined to reduce the polluting emissions from its road transport vehicles. At the same time, it also intends to reduce the country's dependence on hydrocarbon imports and support the development of the industrial sector. China is the largest manufacturer and consumer of electric vehicles in the world. National sales targets, favourable laws, supportive subsidies, and municipal air-quality targets are supporting domestic demand. For instance,
• China has by far the biggest electric vehicle industry in the world. As the largest EV manufacturer, China's EV production amounted to 3.5 million units in 2021, an increase of 1.6 times year-over-year. Revenues from the electric vehicle market reached approximately 102.2 billion U.S. dollars for the year, the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
• China imposed a quota on manufacturers for 100% electric or hybrid vehicles, which must represent at least 10% of total new sales. Additionally, some major cities and provinces are imposing increasingly stringent restrictions. For instance, Beijing only issues 10,000 permits for registering combustion-engine vehicles per month to encourage its inhabitants to switch to electric vehicles. These measures are leading China to formulate resolute and optimistic prospects for the development of electric vehicles in the country, which is expected to drive the market.
• The growing government regulations improving electric vehicle adoption and robust expansion adopted by OEMs and suppliers in the region to accommodate rising demand from the automotive industry in China are expected to create a positive outlook for market growth during the forecast period. For instance,
• The government of China is encouraging people to adopt electric vehicles. The country has already made plans to phase out diesel fuel, which runs the current generation of tractors and construction equipment. The country is planning to ban diesel and petrol vehicles completely by 2040.
• In the last three years, nearly 60,000 light trucks and vans have been deployed for urban freight movement in Shenzhen, representing approximately 35% of the city's overall fleet of urban delivery vehicles.
• With the above-mentioned developments, low-emission vehicles are witnessing significant growth during the forecast period.

Low-Emission Vehicle Market Competitor Analysis

• The market for low-emission vehicles is characterized by the presence of both established companies and small start-ups. There are also a large number of regional players currently focusing on specific geographies. BYD is a major player in the market studied, owing to its growing orders for passenger cars and electric buses from domestic and international markets. The company sold 227,152 passenger vehicles in 2018, the highest among all companies in China. BYD also received an order to build 4,473 electric buses for Guangzhou city under the tender of a total of 4,810 electric buses. Other major companies are Tesla, Daimler, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford, and Geely Group.
• In April 2022, the Ministry of Economic Progress, Italy announced the provision to allocate EUR 650 million (USD 699 million) for each of the years 2022-2023-2024, which falls within the resources allocated by the Government to the Automotive Fund for which a total financial endowment of EUR 8.7 billion (USD 9.34 billion) has been provided until 2030. Incentives for purchasing electric, hybrid, plug-in, and endothermic vehicles are granted only to individuals. A small percentage of the funds is reserved for car-sharing companies to purchase electric, hybrid, and plug-in vehicles.
• The Canadian government established a sales mandate in May 2022 to guarantee that all new light-duty vehicle sales are ZEVs by the year 2035. The Government is investing up to CAD 529 million (USD 423 million) into this project

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

• 4.1 Market Drivers
• 4.2 Market Restraints
• 4.3 Porters 5 Force Analysis
  • 4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION (Market Size by Value - USD billion)

• 5.1 Vehicle Type
  • 5.1.1 Passenger Car
  • 5.1.2 Commercial Vehicles
• 5.2 Type
  • 5.2.1 Hybrid
  • 5.2.2 Mild Hybrid
  • 5.2.3 Pure Electric Vehicle
• 5.3 Geography
  • 5.3.1 North America
    • 5.3.1.1 United States Of America
    • 5.3.1.2 Canada
    • 5.3.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.3.1.4 Rest of North America
  • 5.3.2 Europe
    • 5.3.2.1 Germany
    • 5.3.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.3.2.3 France
    • 5.3.2.4 Italy
    • 5.3.2.5 Spain
    • 5.3.2.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.3.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.3.1 India
    • 5.3.3.2 China
    • 5.3.3.3 Japan
    • 5.3.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.3.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.3.4 Rest of the World
    • 5.3.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.3.4.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.3.4.3 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.3.4.4 South Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Vendor Market Share
• 6.2 Company Profiles*
  • 6.2.1 Tesla Inc.
  • 6.2.2 BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
  • 6.2.3 Volkswagen AG
  • 6.2.4 Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • 6.2.5 Hyundai Motor Company
  • 6.2.6 Toyota Motor Corporation
  • 6.2.7 Tata Motors Limited
  • 6.2.8 BMW AG
  • 6.2.9 AB Volvo

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS