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Optical Communications Market Forecast: China and Cloud Companies Will Drive Market Growth Through 2021

出版商 LightCounting, LLC 商品編碼 281615
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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光纖通訊市場預測:中國及雲端企業推動市場成長2021年 Optical Communications Market Forecast: China and Cloud Companies Will Drive Market Growth Through 2021
出版日期: 2016年10月01日 內容資訊: 英文



第1章 電信業者的收益,Capex概要

  • 2016年的指南:業者收益上升,Capex減少
  • M&A展現了Telco (通訊業者)的發展
  • China Mobile的FTTH獎勵:中國政府創造出第4業者
  • 印度一方面採用4G,但光纖發展卻同時持續惡化
  • 配合視訊成長的Telefonica網路策略
  • Verizon朝向NFV型服務供應商發展

第2章 網際網路基礎設施的推動因素

  • 網際網路基礎設施支出再度回到2位數成長
  • 5公司持續支配網際網路基礎設施支出
  • 網際網路企業的快取達到4090億美元
  • 強的企業吞併弱的企業

第3章 通訊用途所使用的光學元件·模組的預測

  • CWDM及DWDM收發器
  • SONET/SDH收發器
  • FTTx收發器
  • 無線基礎設施光學模組

第4章 數據通訊用途所使用的光收發器及互連的預測

  • 乙太網路收發器
  • 光纖通道收發器
  • 光連接模組




This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2021 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.

Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2015 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting's forecast model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.

LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.

Table of Contents

  • List of Figures and Tables
  • Abstract

Executive Summary

  • Optics market growth will continue, but don't get carried away with excitement.
  • Telecom capex is down. Cloud spending is up.
  • Changes in the forecast
  • Wild cards and tripwires

Section 1: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview

  • 2016 Guidance: Operator Revenues Are Up, Capex is Down
  • Mergers and acquisitions point to a telco evolution
  • China Mobile's FTTH push; Chinese government creates a fourth operator
  • India embracing 4G while fiber rollouts continue to slip
  • Telefonica's network strategy to cope with video growth
  • Verizon's move to become an NFV - based service provider

Section 2: Internet Infrastructure Drivers

  • Internet infrastructure spending resumes double - digit growth in 2016
  • Five companies continue to dominate Internet infrastructure spending
  • Cloud services revenue increasing as share of total
  • Internet companies' cash hits $409 billion in June 2016
  • Strong companies are eating the weak

Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications

  • CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
    • Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds
    • Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps transceivers will coexist, at least for now
  • SONET/SDH transceivers
    • SFP+ is replacing XFP for OC - 192 applications
  • FTTx Transceivers
  • Optical modules for wireless infrastructure

Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications.

  • Ethernet Transceivers
    • Hyperscale data centers drive adoption of higher - speed Ethernet modules
    • 40GbE
    • 100GbE
    • 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE - now part of our forecast
  • Fibre Channel Transceivers
    • Fibre Channel slump ending, aided by flash systems
  • Optical Interconnects

List of Figures and Tables

  • Figure E-1: Global sales of optical components and modules by segment
  • Figure E-2: DWDM Network Bandwidth
  • Figure E-3: Sales of 100GbE transceivers by application
  • Figure E-4: Growth rate of the Internet traffic and DWDM network bandwidth
  • Figure E-5: Traffic growth rates in Google Datacenters and Amsterdam Internet Exchange
  • Figure 1-1: Total revenue of the top 15 service providers
  • Figure 1-2: Total capex of the top 15 service providers
  • Figure 1-3: Revenue changes 1H 2016 vs. 1H 2015 for the top 15 service providers
  • Figure 1-4: Revenue of the top 15 service providers by geographic region
  • Figure 1-5: Capex of the top 15 service providers by geographic region. Table 1-1: A summary of recent merger and acquisitions: completed and ongoing Table 1-2: Chinese operators' broadband subscribers and portion of FTTH users, September 2016 Table 1-3: Chinese operators' LTE subscriber figures, September 2016 Table 1-4: Chinese operators' LTE statistics
  • Figure 1-6: Indian operator market share -- wired and wireline - and broadband split
  • Figure 1-7: Telefonica's IP-MPLS nationwide network showing underlying optical infrastructure
  • Figure 1-8: Verizon's pod and core data center architecture for its NFV deployment
  • Figure 2-1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment
  • Figure 2-2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E
  • Figure 2-3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues ($ millions) reported by major players Table 2.2: Mergers and acquisitions among major Internet companies
  • Figure 3-1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-3: Sales of WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and 200/400G DWDM ports (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-5: Shipments of 100G and 200/400G ports by application (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-6: Shipments of 100G DWDM transponders by type (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-7: 10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Unit Shipments (Historical and Forecast Data)
  • Figure 3-8: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-9: Sales of OC-192 Transceivers by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-10: New FTTH subscribers vs. annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-11: China's impact on the access optics market (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-12: FTTx optics revenues (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-13: Mobile connections by technology
  • Figure 3-14: Wireless Infrastructure Optical Modules Shipments (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-15: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 3-16: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  • Figure 4-6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast)
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