Abstract
With 1Gb Ethernet, users only accessed the local area network (LAN). They were
able to access files (given the right security access) stored on the internal
storage of servers or other clients, or they could access files through
specialized network attached storage(NAS) devices. However, to access high
performance block level storage, users had to install an additional Fibre
Channel storage area network (SAN) network by adding cards to their servers
and an extra set of switches and target storage boxes. All this is changing at
10G bps Ethernet. Beginning with 10GigE, block-level storage traffic will
inevitably join file-access traffic on the Ethernet LAN via both Fibre Channel
over Ethernet (FCoE) and Internet Small Computer System Interface (iSCSI). But
when? LightCounting has a wealth of Fibre Channel shipment data going back to
205 showing the rise and fall of 1, 2, 4, and 8G bps versions of the standard
and emergence of the 16G bps version. This report provides LightCounting' s
forecast for Fibre Channel SAN transceivers as well as server and switch port
shipments and the associated server and switch port revenues for Fibre
Channel, 10GigE overall, FCoE, and iSCSI. We also discuss emerging trends in
storage as the industry has moved to new forms of computing such as Web 2.0
storage implementations and the cloud.
Major Findings:
LightCounting believes that Fibre Channel has a strong future ahead of it.
10Gbps iSCSI and FCoE growth will inevitably stop, forcing shipments to shrink
over time, but a significant move in this direction is not expected before
2014. Our forecast shows that FCoE and 10Gbps iSCSI port counts combined will
not quite catch up to the Fibre Channel port count in 2015. LightCounting' s
key findings are summarized below.
Data Center Buying Centers Not Aligned with Network and Storage Purchase
For decades, data centers have typically been managed by three distinct
groups: the people who manage servers, networks, and storage. They have
separate buying centers, budgets, and experts who manage the current
technologies and discern what technologies are going to be needed down the
road.
10GBASE-TBit Error Rates Too Low for FCoE
The specification for 10GB BASE-T is set for a bit error rate (BER) of 10-12.
The specification for FCoE is for a BER of 10-15. Therefore, SAN traffic
across 10GBASE-T will drop packets, an unacceptable consequence for enterprise
SAN storage.
Server OEMs Offer Unique, Nonstandard FC and FCoE Solutions
Standardization increases market penetration but hurts margins. Original
equipment manufacturers(OEM) do what they can to address both standardization
and margins.
Cisco Is the Only OEM with a Fully Credible FCoE Strategy
Cisco offers the full set of technologies and support for FCoE from the server
(UCS), HBA (virtual interface card [VIC]), switches (Nexus series), and target
storage (EMC through Cisco' s joint venture with VMware, EMC, and Cisco called
VCE) all integrated with VMware' s software.
FC-BB-5 Helps Cisco But FC-BB-6 Needed for FCoE to Be a True Standard
Fibre Channel Backbone 5 (INCITS/ANSI T11 FC-BB-5) was approved by the T11
committee in June 2009. FC-BB-5 defines a network and its associated
resources and services that are used to connect one or more Fibre Channel
entities over on Fibre Channel protocol infrastructures.
FCoE Will Occur on Optical Networks, 10Gb bps iSCSI on Copper Networks
FCoE will appeal to users of Fibre Channel who are already comfortable with
fiber-based networks. With SFP+ transceivers used for both Fibre Channel and
10GigE, and the emergence of DA cables as a low-cost, short-range (less than 7
meters) cabling alternative, FCoE is a natural for these cabling
infrastructures. Conversely, iSCSI is predominantly used by small to medium
sized enterprises (SMEs) with CAT 5/6A cabling infrastructures using RJ-45
connectors.
New LOM Option I/O Architecture Will Change the “Standard” I/O Connection
Successful new standards usually leverage older standards. For example, 1GbE
leveraged the cabling infrastructure and networking knowhow from 10/100 Mb
Ethernet, and 8 Gb Fibre Channel leveraged 4 Gb FC and older generations.
10 Gbps iSCSI to Jump in 2014, Along with 10 GBASE-T
Fibre Channel will clearly continue to be the leader for block-based network
storage for years to come, but after 2015, the race is on. LightCounting
believes that iSCSI has less of an edge, as its sponsorship by powerful OEMs
is weak.
FCoE Is Catching On But Full Industry Support Is Waiting for 2014
FCoE is off to a promising start with Cisco not only heavily promoting it but
supporting it extremely well by offering the server (UCS), the HBA (the
virtual interface card [VIC]), its switches (Nexus), and the joint VCE joint
venture with EMC and VMware to ensure an end-to-end FCoE offering with both
technology and support.
About Kimball Brown
Kimball Brown is the Vice President and Senior Datacom Analyst with
LightCounting; his focusis on servers, switches, and semiconductors for the
enterprise networking market.
Table of Contents
Abstract
Major Findings
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Several Types of Storage Networking Which Will Dominate?
- DAS and Distributed DAS
- Distributed DAS, the Cloud Expands DAS Usage
- NAS
- NAS Is and Will Continue to Be Widely Used
- Fibre Channel: The Dominant Network Storage Standard
- Extensive Validation, No Dropped Packets Drives Acceptance of Fibre Channel
- iSCSI: Simpler, Lower Cost Block Network Storage
- iSCSI: The Poor Man' s SAN
- FCoE: An Upgrade for Fibre Channel?
- Standardized, End-To-End Implementation of FCoE Still Several Years Out
Chapter Two: Shifts in Stored Data Drive New Standards
- Structured versus Unstructured Data
- Web 2.0 Computing Architecture
- Cloud Computing and Storage
- Multi tenancy Is the Key to Cloud Computing
- Cloud Architecture vs. Business Model: Who Controls the Data
Chapter Three: Barriers to Entry for iSCSI and FCoE
- Data Center Buying Centers Are Not Aligned with Network and Storage
Purchases
- 10GBAS SE-T Bit Error Rates Too Low for FCoE
- Server OEMs Offer Unique, Nonstandard FC and FCoE Solutions
- HP' s Virtual Connect Simplifies Complex I/O
- IBM' s Virtual Fabric Helps Users Get the Most from its Blade Center
- Cisco Is the Only OEM with a Fully Credible FC CoE Strategy
- FC-BB-5 Helps Cisco But FC-BB-6 Needed for FCoE to Become a True Standard
Chapter Four: Intel Server Micro architecture Roadmap Provides Network Storage Timeline
- iSCSI to Ride 10GBASE-T Wave, FCoE to Ride SFP+
Chapter Five: Key Network Storage OEMs
- Brocade Fibre Channel Revenues Slip
- Cisco Restructures
- Dell: Proprietary Storage Revenues Grow
- Emulex Host Bus Adapters and LOMs for Ethernet Thriving
- Hewlett-Packard Announces Major Restructuring
- IBM Is Firing on All Cylinders
