本報告已在2011年06月28日停止出版。
Abstract
Top Ten Global Energy Trends in 2010
Summary
Global Markets Direct, the leading business intelligence provider, has
released its latest research “Top Ten Global Energy Trends in
2010” The study, which is an offering from the company’s Energy
Research Group, provides an analysis of the key challenges and potential short
term trends in the global energy sector during 2010. The major areas of focus
include impact of the financial crisis and the after effects of the crisis and
the global economic recession on the energy sector. Challenges in conventional
as well as non conventional energy sector, technological developments in new
and alternative energy sectors and the nuclear industry are also analyzed. The
global economic recovery and the impact on the capital expenditure in the
petroleum industry in 2010, growing trend towards the offshore oil and gas
industry and the approach of the oil and gas companies to prepare for the
upturn are some of the other issues that have been analyzed in the report. The
report highlights and analyses the most critical trends or issues in the
global energy sector in 2010. The report is built using the data and
information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research
and in house analysis by Global Markets Direct’s team of industry
experts.
The global energy industry is at a key juncture in terms of its short and long
term outlook. On the one hand, the highly volatile commodity markets and the
prevalent low prices following the global recession have resulted in an
overall bleak outlook for the industry in the short term. On the other hand,
2009 is the year of Global Climate Change Summit which is expected to lead to
a global climate change framework thereby establishing norms to mitigate
climate change which in turn is expected to have a significant impact on the
energy industry in the long term. The two main factors of global recession and
climate change are threatening the energy industry by providing a negative
outlook for the energy demand in the future. However, there have been signs of
a global economic recovery with many of the large economies growing positively
in the second half of 2009 which is expected to be the key trend in 2010. The
negative outlook on the energy industry also had depressed the valuations of
the companies and their assets. However, companies with strong fiscal
positions are seeing this as an opportune time for mergers and acquisitions
and buying assets. With the global economy poised for recovery in 2010, the
energy industry is expected to witness a positive outlook with various
segments witnessing these key trends.
Global energy consumption was about 11294.9 Mtoe in 2008 which was an increase
of 1.7 per cent from 2007. The economic downturn by the end of 2008 had a
negative impact on the growth in energy consumption. This downward trend has
continued in 2009. Global energy consumption in 2009 is expected to slightly
increase to about 11428.1 Mtoe with an annual growth rate of 1.2 percent from
2008. As lack in demand in major energy consuming sectors and a general
unhealthy environment for consumer spending has had a negative effect on the
growth of the energy consumption from the second half of 2008. The US total
energy consumption had a negative growth in 2008 and is expected to continue
in 2009. Similarly, many European economies including Denmark, Portugal, UK
and Asia Pacific economies such as Japan, Taiwan and Australia also consumed
less energy in 2008. Further, the total energy consumption in the OECD
economies is expected to continue to witness a negative growth in 2009.
However, with the global economy expected to recover in 2010, energy
consumption in the OECD economies is expected to grow. The improving economic
conditions in 2009 and the expected recovery in 2010 will further drive the
growth in energy consumption in these economies.
Scope
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the top global trends in the
energy sector in 2010 with challenges and future prospects for the overall
industry. The report provides critical analysis of the various trends in the
different segments of the energy industry including oil and gas upstream and
downstream, unconventional and offshore oil and gas sectors, nuclear energy,
alternative energy, electricity sector and coal sector. The report also
provides deal analysis of the oil and gas, nuclear and alternative energy
sectors.
The scope of the report includes:
- The report analyses the impact of the
financial crisis and the after effects of the global economic recession on the
global energy sectors and its potential reverberations in 2010.
-
Highlights the issues and challenges that the energy industry is expected to
face in 2010.
- Covers deal activities in the oil and gas, upstream and
downstream energy sectors.
- The report also provides information on deal
activity in the alternative and renewable energy sector.
- The report also
analyses the current and estimated capital expenditure in the exploration and
production sector
- The report also covers the non - petroleum
energy sectors such as coal, nuclear and clean energy and the electricity
sectors and highlights the future trends in 2010.
Reasons to buy
The report will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and
time sensitive manner. It will allow you to:
- Drive revenues by
identifying the fastest growing sectors to invest in the energy industry.
- Identify market challenges and opportunities for shaping investment
strategies.
- Make informed business decisions and maximize investment
returns by understanding the trends and challenges that will impact the energy
companies in 2010.
- Identify upcoming business opportunities in various
energy sectors and geographic regions.
- Identify potential challenges for
business plans and develop effective risk alleviation measures.
- Develop
an understanding of the investment scenario in the different energy
sectors.
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 9
2
Top Ten Global Energy Trends in 2010 - Introduction 10
2.1 Report
Guidance 10
3 Global Total Energy Consumption Is Expected To Recover In
2010 11
3.1 Global Energy Consumption to 2010 11
3.2 Global Energy Mix
To 2010 12
3.3 Global Economic Overview 13
3.4 Key Factors Affecting
The Global Energy Consumption 14
3.4.1 Global Economic Slowdown 14
3.4.2 Focus On Energy Efficiency 14
4 Global Corporate M&A And Asset
Transactions In The E&P Sector Are Likely To Witness A Rise While Downstream
Sector Lag In 2010 15
4.1 Global Oil And Gas Deal Activity in 2009 15
4.2 Total Upstream Sector Deal Activity in 2009 16
4.3 Upstream Deal
Activity By Geography 17
4.4 Total Downstream Sector Deal Activity in 2009
19
4.5 Downstream Deal Activity By Geography 20
4.6 E&P Deal Multiples
23
5 Crude Oil And Natural Gas Prices And Thereby E&P Capital Expenditure
Are Expected To Witness An Upward Trend In 2010 24
5.1 Exploration And
Development Capital Expenditure 24
5.1.1 Decrease In Exploration And
Development Spending In 2009 24
5.1.2 Improving Economic Outlook In 2010
Will Drive The Recovery Of Capital Expenditure 25
5.2 Factors Affecting
The Capital Expenditure Plans 26
5.3 Investments From National Oil
Companies In 2009 And 2010 27
6 Electricity Consumption And Generation Is
Expected To Increase In 2010 With Increasing Focus On Smart Grid
Implementation In Major Consuming Markets 28
6.1 World Electricity
Generation By Fuel Type, 2005-2010 28
6.2 OECD And Non-OECD Electricity
Generation, 2005-2010 29
6.3 World Installed Electricity Generation
Capacity, 2005-2010 30
6.4 World Net Electricity Consumption, 2005-2010
31
6.5 Key Trends In The Electricity Transmission And Distribution Sector
31
6.6 Smart Grid Technology Overview 32
6.6.1 Generation 34
6.6.2
Storage 34
6.6.3 Transmission 34
6.6.4 Distribution 34
6.6.5
Consumption 34
6.6.6 Communication 35
6.6.7 Proposed Smart Grid
Investments in US 35
6.6.8 Proposed Smart Grid Investments in Asia Pacific
35
6.6.9 Effect of Recession on Smart Grid Implementation 36
7 Nuclear
Energy Will Continue To Increase Its Role In The Energy Mix And Is Likely To
Attract Increased Investments In 2010 37
7.1 Global Installed Nuclear
Power Capacity And Generation, 2005-10 37
7.2 Emerging Nuclear Power
Regions 38
7.2.1 Nuclear Power Market 39
7.2.2 Nuclear Reactor Market
By Region 40
7.2.3 Present Status Of Emerging Countries For Nuclear Power
Development 40
7.3 Small And Medium Reactors In The Emerging Nuclear Power
Market 41
7.3.1 Nuclear Industry Infrastructure Development in Emerging
Nuclear Power Countries 41
7.3.2 Simplicity of Operation of SMRs 41
7.3.3 Cost Competitiveness of SMRs 42
7.3.4 SMRs Meet Customized Needs
42
7.4 Investments in Global Nuclear Power Sector 42
7.5 Nuclear
Industry Deal Analysis, 2009 42
7.6 Key Factors Affecting The Nuclear
Industry 43
7.6.1 Emerging Nuclear Power Countries, Economic Feasibility
of Nuclear Power Plants 44
7.6.2 Impact Of Global Economic Recession On
The Nuclear Power Sector Development 44
7.6.3 Safety Management 44
7.6.4 Long Project Lifetime And Ensuring Financial Competitiveness 44
8
Increased Focus On Clean Alternative Energy And Alternative Fuels Is Expected
To Attract Investments To The Sector In 2010 45
8.1 Global Alternative
Energy Share In The World Energy Mix To 2010 45
8.2 Global Electricity
Generation From Renewable Energy To 2010 46
8.3 Global Renewable Power
Capacity By Source To 2010 47
8.4 Alternative Fuels Are Increasing In
Production In 2010 48
8.5 Deal Analysis In The Alternative Energy Sector,
2009 49
8.6 Key Trends In The Alternative Energy Industry 50
8.6.1
Reduction In Carbon Emission Levels 50
8.6.2 Favorable Government Policies
Driving The Renewable Energy Industry 51
9 Refining Sector Will Continue
To Experience A Downturn Fuelled By Low Refining Margins In 2010 53
9.1
Global Refining Sector Is Experiencing A Downturn Due To The Economic Crisis
And Uncertain Product Demand 53
9.2 Global Refining Capacity By Region,
2000-2010 53
9.3 Global Refinery Utilization, 2000-2008 55
9.4 Major
Factors Affecting The Refining Industry 55
9.4.1 Volatile Crude Prices
55
9.4.2 Volatile Refining Margins 55
9.4.3 Uncertain Economic Outlook
56
9.4.4 Adoption Of New Technologies And Increased Focus On Reducing
Climate Change 57
9.5 Fall In Refining Earnings Of Major Companies From
Refining Operations 57
9.6 Divestment Of Refining Assets 58
9.7 Future
Capacity Increase From The Major Upcoming Refinery Projects 59
10 New And
Emerging Frontiers Will Increasingly Add To The Supply Of Oil And Gas In 2010
60
10.1 New And Emerging Frontiers In The Oil And Gas Industry 60
10.1.1 Offshore Oil And Gas Industry 60
10.1.2 Unconventional Oil And Gas
Industry 61
10.2 Oil And Gas Production 61
10.3 Major New Geographic
Regions In The World For Unconventional And Offshore Oil And Gas Sectors
63
10.4 Future Major Offshore And Unconventional Oil And Gas Projects
64
10.4.1 Major Upcoming Oil Sands Projects In 2010 66
10.5 Key Trends
And Challenges In The Offshore And Unconventional Oil And Gas Industry
67
10.5.1 The Global Oil And Gas Industry Is Witnessing A Shift In
Investment To New And Emerging Frontiers Such As Offshore And Unconventional
Oil And Gas Sectors 67
10.5.2 Constantly Evolving Technologies And
Processes Enabling Development Of Offshore And Unconventional Resources 68
10.5.3 Low Prices And Negative Economic Outlook Will Affect The Growth Of The
Offshore And Unconventional Industry In The Short Term 68
10.5.4
Environmental Impact Of The Offshore Oil And Gas Industry 70
10.5.5 The
Development Of Unconventional Natural Gas In North America Will Hit The LNG
Import Industry 70
11 Ambiguity Over Climate Change Policies And Framework
Will Continue To Cast A Shadow Of Uncertainty Over The Energy Markets In 2010
72
11.1 Introduction to Global Warming 72
11.1.1 Naturally Occurring
Carbon Cycle 73
11.1.2 Illustrations of Ecological Imbalance due to Excess
Carbon 73
11.2 Impact of Green House Gases on Ecology 73
11.3 Global
Initiatives to Reduce Carbon Footprint 74
11.3.1 The Kyoto Protocol 74
11.3.2 Worldwide Renewable Energy Policy Targets 75
11.3.3 Alternate
Initiatives to Reduce Carbon Footprint and Their Impact on Reduction of Carbon
Footprint 77
11.3.4 The Need for Artificial Carbon Sequestration 78
11.4 Key Initiatives Affecting The Energy Industry 78
11.4.1 Energy
Efficiency 78
11.4.2 Curbs In GHG Emissions And Increased Costs Of
Compliance 78
12 Coal Will Continue To Be A Major Source Of Energy In 2010
Especially In Coal Rich Countries Albeit The Focus On Climate Change 80
12.1 Global Coal Reserves, Production And Consumption, 2005-2010 80
12.1.1
Global Coal Production And Consumption 80
12.1.2 Global Coal Reserves,
2008 81
12.2 Coal In The Global Energy Mix, 2005-2010 82
12.3 Domestic
Coal Consumption From Top 5 Nations 83
12.4 Coal End Usage 84
12.5
Trends In The Coal Industry 85
12.5.1 Focus On Climate Change And
Reduction In Carbon Emissions Not Likely To Largely Reduce The Usage Of Coal
In Countries Such As The US, China And India 85
12.5.2 New Technologies In
Coal Usage 85
13 Appendix 87
13.1 Methodology 87
13.1.1 Coverage
87
13.1.2 Secondary Research 87
13.1.3 Primary Research 88
13.1.4
Expert Panel Validation 88
13.2 Unit of Measure 88
13.3 Acronyms
89
13.4 Contact Us 89
13.5 About Global Markets Direct 89
13.6
Disclaimer 89
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Global Energy
Consumption by Geography in Mtoe, 2005-2010 12
Table 2: Global Energy
Consumption Mix in Mtoe, 2005-2010 13
Table 3: Global Actual and
Forecasted GDP, 2007 - 2010 14
Table 4: Global Oil and Gas Deal Activity,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 16
Table 5: Global Upstream Oil and Gas Deal
Activity, Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 17
Table 6: Global Upstream Oil and Gas
Deal Value by Geography in $ Million,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 18
Table 7: Global Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity by Geography, Q1 2007
- Q4 2009 19
Table 8: Global Downstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 20
Table 9: Global Downstream Oil and Gas Deal
Value by Geography in $ Million,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 21
Table 10:
Global Downstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity by Geography, Q1 2007 - Q4
2009 22
Table 11: Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Multiples, Q1 2008 - Q4
2009 23
Table 12: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Forecast, 2008-2012
24
Table 13: World Electricity Generation by Fuel type, Trillion KWh, 2005
- 2010 28
Table 14: OECD v/s Non OECD Electricity Generation, Trillion
KWh, 2005 - 2010 29
Table 15: World Installed Electricity Generation
Capacity, GigaWatts, 2005 - 2010 30
Table 16: World Net Electricity
Consumption, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010 31
Table 17: Key Smart Grid
Elements, Functional Properties 33
Table 18: Asia-Pacific, Proposed Smart
Grid Investments 36
Table 19: Global Nuclear Installed Power Capacity and
Generation, 2005-2010 38
Table 20: Global, Emerging Nuclear Power
Countries, Commercial Nuclear Power Plants Market, $ Billion, 2010-2030 40
Table 21: Global, Emerging Market, Present Status of Nuclear Power Programs
41
Table 22: Small and Medium Reactors, by Country of Development 41
Table 23: Nuclear Industry, Deal Value and Number of Deals, Q1 2008-Q4
2009 43
Table 24: Global Energy Consumption Mix in Mtoe, 2005-2010 46
Table 25: World Electricity Generation by Fuel type, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010
47
Table 26: Global Renewable Power Capacity by Source, GW, 2005 - 2010
48
Table 27: Global Bioethanol and Biodiesel Production, Million Liters,
2005 -2010 49
Table 28: Alternative Industry, Deal Value and Number of
Deals, Q1 2008-Q3 2009 50
Table 29: World Energy Related Carbon
Emissions, Billion Metric Tones, 2005 - 2010 51
Table 30: World,
Refining Key Statistics, 2009 54
Table 31: World, Refining Capacity
Region-Wise (MMTPA), 2000-2010 54
Table 32: Global Actual and Forecasted
GDP, 2007 - 2010 57
Table 33: Global Upcoming Refinery Projects and
Capital Expenditure, 2009-2010 59
Table 34: Canada, Oil Sands Production
in Million Barrels, 2002-2010 63
Table 35: Major Offshore Oil and Natural
Gas Projects, 2009 and 2010 65
Table 36: Canadian Oil Sands, Planned Oil
Sands Projects, 2010 66
Table 37: Canadian Oil Sands, Historic and
Forecasts of Construction and Operating Expenditure, 2002-2010 68
Table
38: World Energy Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones, 2005 -
2010 75
Table 39: European Union Countries Renewable Energy targets, 2020
77
Table 40: Global Coal Consumption and Production in Mtoe, 2005 - 2010
81
Table 41: Global Coal Reserves in Billion Tonnes, 2008 82
Table 42:
Global Energy Consumption Mix in Mtoe, 2005-2010 83
Table 43: Major Coal
Consuming Nations, Mtoe, 2005 - 2010 84
Table 44: End Usage of Coal in
2009 84
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Energy Consumption
by Geography in Mtoe, 2005-2010 12
Figure 2: Global Energy Consumption Mix
in Mtoe, 2005-2010 13
Figure 3: Global Oil and Gas Deal Activity, Q1 2007
- Q4 2009 15
Figure 4: Global Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity, Q1
2007 - Q4 2009 17
Figure 5: Global Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Value
by Geography in $ Million,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 18
Figure 6:
Global Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity by Geography, Q1 2007 - Q4
2009 19
Figure 7: Global Downstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity, Q1 2007
- Q4 2009 20
Figure 8: Global Downstream Oil and Gas Deal Value by
Geography in $ Million,
Q1 2007 - Q4 2009 21
Figure 9: Global
Downstream Oil and Gas Deal Activity by Geography, Q1 2007 - Q4 2009
22
Figure 10: Upstream Oil and Gas Deal Multiples, Q1 2008 - Q4 2009
23
Figure 11: Oil & Gas Sector, Capital Expenditure Split by Company Type,
$ Billion, 2009 25
Figure 12: Oil & Gas Sector, Capital Expenditure Split
by Company Type, $ Billion, 2006-2010 26
Figure 13: Global GDP Growth
Rate, Q1 2008 - Q4 2010 26
Figure 14: Oil & Gas, Capital Expenditure
and Growth, $ Billion, 2009 27
Figure 15: World Electricity Generation by
Fuel type, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010 28
Figure 16: OECD v/s Non OECD
Electricity Generation, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010 29
Figure 17: World
Installed Electricity Generation Capacity, GigaWatts, 2005 - 2010 30
Figure 18: World Net Electricity Consumption, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010 31
Figure 19: Smart Grid, Schematic Representation 34
Figure 20: Global
Nuclear Installed Power Capacity and Generation, 2005-2010 38
Figure 21:
Global, Emerging Nuclear Power Countries, Commercial Nuclear Power Plants
Market, $ Billion, 2010-2030 39
Figure 22: Nuclear Industry, Deal Value
and Number of Deals, Q1 2008-Q4 2009 43
Figure 23: Renewable Energy
Share of the Global Energy Consumption Mix in Mtoe, 2005-2010 46
Figure
24: World Electricity Generation by Fuel type, Trillion KWh, 2005 - 2010
47
Figure 25: Global Renewable Power Capacity by Source, GW, 2005 - 2010
48
Figure 26: Global Bioethanol and Biodiesel Production, Million Liters,
2005 - 2010 49
Figure 27: Alternative Industry, Deal Value and Number of
Deals, Q1 2008-Q3 2009 50
Figure 28: World Energy Related Carbon
Emissions, Billion Metric Tonnes, 2005 - 2010 51
Figure 29: Refining
Capacity by Region (MMTPA), 2000-2010 54
Figure 30: Global Refining
Capacity And Refinery Utilization from 2000-2008 55
Figure 31: Refinery
Margins In $ Per Barrel from November 2007 - October 2009 56
Figure
32: Downstream Earnings Of Super Major Integrated Oil Companies in $ Million,
Q3 2008 and Q3 2009 58
Figure 33: Global Offshore Crude Oil Production by
Region in Million Barrels, 2000-2010 62
Figure 34: Global Offshore Natural
Gas Production by Region in Bcf, 2000-2010 62
Figure 35: North America,
Forecasted Natural Gas Production From Major Shale Plays,
2008-2020
64
Figure 36: Crude and Natural Gas price, Brent, WTI and Henry Hub,
December 2008 - November 2009 69
Figure 37: World Energy
Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones, 2005 - 2010 75
Figure 38: European Union Countries Renewable Energy targets, 2020 76
Figure 39: Global Coal Consumption and Production in Mtoe, 2005 -2010 80
Figure 40: Global Coal Reserves in Billion Tonnes, 2008 81
Figure 41:
Global Energy Consumption Mix in Mtoe, 2005-2010 82
Figure 42: Major Coal
Consuming Nations, Mtoe, 2005 - 2010 83
Figure 43: End Usage of Coal in
2009 84
Figure 44: Global Markets Direct Methodology 87
