Abstract
Report description
Much has happened since the last edition of this report appeared over 18
months ago. The most significant event has, of course, been the global
financial crisis, which began to hit in the third quarter of 2008.
Never has cheaper technology been more appealing to the industry. And that is
potentially a significant barrier to further diesel expansion, as this report
explores.
At the same time, the pressures on the industry to reduce fuel consumption and
emissions have not let up. The engine downsizing trend that had begun at the
time of the last report has continued to gather pace and can be expected to be
one of the dominating powertrain trends of the coming years.
just-auto' s latest review of the global market for diesel technology discusses
whether diesel is likely to lose its grip as emissions limits tighten. None of
the “magic bullet” technologies seem to have got off the ground and the high
cost of aftertreatment is going to have an impact on the market for diesels.
The report looks at this in context with the alternatives and some of the
developing petrol technologies as a result, not least because some of them
offer the promise of the low emissions of the HCCI engine, without some of the
associated problems.
Although Europe is the main market in focus, diesel' s progress and likely
short-term future in the United States and Japan is also discussed at length.
Beginning with an Introduction, the report then looks at emmissions
standards in Chapter 2. The slow march towards global emissions
standards is inching forward. Europe has seen the beginning of implementation
of the Euro 5 standards in 2009, LEV2 standards have also arrived during the
year in the US and there have been fresh proposals for Japan. Globally there
are still a variety of emissions-testing cycles with measurements made in
different units, making it difficult to draw direct comparisons. But the focus
is shifting.
This chapter reviews the latest standards across Europe, the US, Japan, India,
Russia, and South Korea and discusses their implications for the diesel market.
Chapter 3 - What future for diesel?
This chapter questions the future for the diesel passenger car market,
discussing the latest hybrid drivetrain model launches.
Chapter 4 - Where are the diesel hybrids?
This chapter reviews the latest technical development of diesel hybrids.
The results so far from mild hybrid diesels and optimised efficiency models
have provided buyers with a low-emission diesel alternative to a gasoline
hybrid such as the Toyota Prius, Honda Civic hybrid or Insight and for a lower
purchase price.
Cost is still an issue for diesel hybrids, mainly because of the high on-cost
of the batteries and associated hardware. Add that to the price premium that
diesel models already carry relative to their gasoline alternatives and it is
clear that there is still some distance to go before the cost of a diesel
hybrid would be viable in the market place.
Chapter 5 - Downsizing
This chapter discusses the increasing trend of engine downsizing.
In a sense, diesel engines have been ahead of the game. The switch to
turbocharging neatly helped to improve performance and fuel consumption,
reduce emissions and permit downsizing.
Bosch believes that fuel efficiency has even greater potential for improvement
from a diesel engine. Dr. Rolf Leonhard, executive vice president of
engineering at Bosch Diesel Systems, outlines the main features of a first
stage technology package for diesels thus: “By increasing exhaust-gas
recirculation, charge-air pressure for combustion air, and injection pressure
over the greater part of the engine map, we can reduce nitric oxide levels in
the combustion process.”
Chapter 6 - Fuel injection systems
Here, the report discusses various strategies manufacturers are adopting when
it comes to tackling tightening emmissions limits and efficiency. Technologies
such as EGR and SCR are discussed. Companies forging advancements in diesel
fuel injection technology, and which are profiled in this chapter include:
Bosch, Continental, Delphi, Denso and Stanadyne.
Chapter 7 - Global diesel markets
In this chapter, we offer forecasts and discussions referencing the market for
diesel passenger cars through to 2014. just-auto data is provided for EU, US
and Japan passenger car registrations, plus diesel units and share are
provided, from 2005 to 2014. Full analysis of the data is provided with the
data tables.
Chapter 8 - Manufacturing
In this chapter we review the major diesel car and engine manufacturers, plus
alliances and recent innovations. Almost inevitably, diesel car manufacturing
is centred on Europe, where every major manufacturer represented in the market
offers a diesel engine. The only exception is Proton. The mainstay of most
manufacturers' diesel ranges is a four-cylinder engine with the most popular
engine sizes in the 1.9-litre to 2.2-litre range. Since our last report, power
ratings have increased, quite markedly in some cases.
This chapter includes our estimates of Fiat' s, Ford' s, Honda' s,
Renault/Nissan' s, and Volkswagen' s diesel car registrations in France,
Germany, Italy, Spain and UK from 2010 to 2014.
Chapter 9 - Conclusion
Diesel engines will continue to play an important role as a source of
efficient motive power for passenger cars for some time to come. The
thermodynamic efficiency of compression ignition engines means that fuel
consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are around 20-25% lower than from an
equivalent gasoline engine.
This final chapter offers our thoughts on where the future lies for diesel
engine technology in passenger cars.
Report Statistics
- Published: May 2010
- Pages: 56
- Format: PDF
Table of Contents
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 2 - Emissions standards
- Europe
- Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
- United States Federal
- California
- Japan
- Other markets
Chapter 3 - What future for diesel?
Chapter 4 - Where are the diesel hybrids?
Chapter 5 - Downsizing
Chapter 6 - Fuel injection systems
- Bosch
- Delphi
- Denso
- Continental Automotive
- Stanadyne
Chapter 7 - Global diesel markets
- Europe
- North America
- Japan
Chapter 8 - Manufacturing
- BMW
- Daimler
- Fiat/GM
- Fiat
- GM
- Ford/PSA Peugeot Citroen
- Honda
- Hyundai/Kia
- Mitsubishi
- Renault/Nissan
- Subaru
- Toyota/Lexus
- Volkswagen
- Emerging markets
Chapter 9 - Conclusion
List of tables
- Table 1: Europe emissions regulations for diesel passenger cars, 2009-2014
(mg/km)
- Table 2: US Tier 2 emissions standards, intermediate life (5 years/50,000
miles)
- Table 3: Tier 2 emissions standards, full life (10 years/120,000 miles)
- Table 4: California Low Emissions Vehicle Standards intermediate life
(5years/50,000 miles)
- Table 5: California Low Emissions Vehicle Standards intermediate life
(11years/120,000 miles)
- Table 6: Japanese exhaust emissions limits: diesel Post New Long Term
Standard, amended November 2007 (g/km)
- Table 7: European Union total passenger car registrations and diesel
share, 2005-2009 (units and % share)
- Table 8: European Union total passenger car registrations and diesel
share, 2010-2014 (units and % share)
- Table 9: United States total passenger car registrations and diesel share,
2005-2009 (units and % share)
- Table 10: United States total passenger car registrations and diesel
share, 2010-2014 (units and % share)
- Table 11: Japan total passenger car registrations and diesel share,
2005-2009 (units and % share)
- Table 12: Japan total passenger car registrations and diesel share,
2010-2014 (units and % share)
- Table 13: Fiat diesel car registrations, 2007-2009 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 14: Fiat diesel car registrations, 2010-2014 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 15: Ford diesel car registrations, 2005-2009 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 16: Ford diesel car registrations, 2010-2014 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 17: Honda diesel car registrations, 2005-2009 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 18: Honda diesel car registrations, 2010-2014 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 19: Nissan diesel car registrations, 2005-2009 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 20: Nissan diesel car registrations, 2010-2014 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 21: Volkswagen diesel car registrations, 2005-2009 (no. of vehicles)
- Table 22: Volkswagen diesel car registrations, 2010-2014 (no. of vehicles)
