NFC行動付款&行銷的市場機會：分析・預測（2009-2014年）

本報告已在2011年09月15日停止出版。

更改為出版

NFC零售行銷以及行動支付市場預測與戰略：2011-2016年

NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2011-2016

出版日期 : 2011年04月

商品編碼: 180847

簡介

本報告，針對NFC行動付款、行動零售、過渡時期解決方案市場進行調查分析，並彙整NFC使用者•NFC裝置•NFC過渡時期解決方案等的市場規模業績表現•預測（∼2014年）、市場成長促進因素•阻礙因素、各種應用以及服務、主要廠商、規格•論壇等的概述，由下列摘要形式闡述。

報告摘要

第1章 行動商務 & 付款市場：市場動態

• 簡介
• 市場成長促進因素・阻礙因素

第2章 行動付款：市場結構

• 簡介
• 定義
• 市場區塊
• 付款方案的分類
• On Deck & Off Deck

第3章 NFC & FeliCa：技術促進因素・阻礙因素

• 簡介
• NFC
• FeliCa
• NFC的成長促進因素・阻礙因素

第4章 市場預測：NFC付款・費用・零售行銷

• 簡介
• 預測方式
• 行動加入者預測
• 行動裝置出貨量預測
• NFC行動裝置出貨量預測
• 過渡時期NFC解決方案預測
• NFC裝置 & 過渡時期解決方案
• 使用中的NFC裝置
• 使用中的NFC裝置 & 過渡時期解決方案
• NFC交易流量
• NFC付款交易額
• NFC ARPU ru 機會

第5章 應用 & 服務

• 各種應用 & 服務

第6章 廠商

第7章 規格•論壇

• ETSI
• The GSM Association
• International Organisation for Standards (ISO)
• Mobey Forum
• NFC Forum
• Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
• EMVCo
• European Payments Council
• Smart Card Alliance
• Further Organisations

目錄

Abstract

This report provides an extensive analysis and market appraisal of the commercial opportunities open to players in the rapidly expanding mobile NFC (Near Field Communication) market. The report examines opportunities in both the mobile payments and mobile retail markets (smart posters and coupons), as well as newly emerging interim solutions such as stickers & SD cards.

In an extensive six year forecasting model the report presents market figures in easy to understand tables and charts such as: mobile device shipments, NFC device shipments, NFC users, shipments of NFC interim solutions, NFC device usage, NFC transaction traffic, Average transaction values of NFC payments, NFC transaction fees and ARPU for both payments and retail marketing - split by mobile coupons & smart posters - all by eight key regions until 2014.

Based on an executive interviewing program with key players within the NFC market, the report discusses industry developments and then goes on to evaluate the impact, sizing the revenue opportunity for both mobile payments and mobile retail marketing.

Key Questions Addressed by this Report:

• How much will NFC users spend on their NFC phones in the future?
• How many people will make payments using their NFC mobiles over the next five years?
• What will be the size of overall NFC transaction values?
• What is the ARPU opportunity for NFC mobile retail marketing?
• How does the AEPU compare between NFC payments and the NFC retail opportunity?
• How many NFC enabled devices will be shipped over the next five years?
• How many interim NFC solutions such as stickers and SD cards will be shipped over the next five years?

Key Benefits:

• A unique source of combined research and analysis for the NFC mobile payments market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
• Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
• Unique insights: includes interviews of leading players with significant experience of the NFC mobile payments market.
• Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

• Introduction
• Executive Interviewing Programme
• What' s New in NFC?
• New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
• Market Projections
  • Mobile Device Markets
  • NFC Device Markets
    • Figure ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • NFC Devices in Use for Payments
    • Figure ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Interim NFC Solutions (Stickers & SD Cards)
    • Figure ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Global and Regional Transaction Value Forecasts
    • Figure ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • NFC Total Payment and Retail Marketing ARPU Opportunity
    • Figure ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
    • Table ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
• NFC Drivers & Constraints
• Figure ES.6: NFC Drivers and Constraints
• Recommendations

1. Mobile Commerce & Payments Market Trends

• 1.1 Introduction
  • Figure 1.1: Telstra 1H 2009 Mobile Revenues Split by Voice and Data
• 1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints
  • Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints
  • 1.2.1 Drivers
    • i. Attractive to Users
    • ii. ARPU Growth Opportunity
    • iii. Larger Retail Transactions
    • iv. Cash Replacement
    • v. Developing World Financial Services
    • vi. Lower Churn for Mobile Operators
    • vii. Migrant Workers Driving International Money Transfers
    • viii. Smartphone Growth
    • ix. Quicker than Cash
  • 1.2.2 Constraints
    • i. Handset Supply
    • ii. Poor User Experience
    • iii. Business Model Uncertainties
    • iv. Lack of Global Technology Standards
    • v. Regulatory Hurdles
    • vi. User Support and Help
    • vii. Transaction Costs

2. Mobile Payments: Market Structure

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Definition
  • Figure 2.1: Generic mCommerce Payment Process
• 2.3 Segmentation
  • 2.3.1 Mobile Commerce Segments
  • Figure 2.2: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
  • i. Categories of Mobile Payments
  • a) Remote Mobile Payment Sub-segments
  • b) Point of Sale Payment Sub-segments
• 2.4 Classification of Payment Schemes
  • Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification
  • 2.4.1 Remote Mobile Payment
  • i. Mobile Phone Bill - "direct to bill" (D2B) Payment
  • ii. Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS) - Digital Goods
  • iii. Online - Payment for the Mobile Web & WAP Billing
  • iv. SMS Payment - Mobile Wallet and Account Based Payment
  • Figure 2.3: PayPal Mobile "Text To Buy"
  • v. Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment
  • vi. Remote Physical/ Mobile Web & WAP Billing
  • 2.4.2 POS (Point of Sale) Mobile Payment
  • i. NFC Payments
  • ii. Text and PIN
• 2.5 On Deck & Off Deck

3. NFC & FeliCa Technology Drivers & Inhibitors

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2. Near Field Communication (NFC)
  • 3.2.1 Technology
  • 3.2.2 NFC Implementation
  • Figure 3.1: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
  • Figure 3.2 Moscow Metro Mifare Contactless Card System
  • Figure 3.3: Typical NFC Implementation
  • 3.2.3 Interim NFC Solutions
  • Figure 3.4: Integration Phase Comparison - NFC and Mobile Broadband
  • i. NFC Stickers
  • Figure 3.5: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker
  • ii. SD Cards
  • Figure 3.6: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card
  • 3.2.4 Use Cases: NFC Forum Interview
  • i. Specifications and Application Types
  • Figure 3.7: NFC Application Types
  • Figure 3.8: Uses of NFC
  • ii. Further Vertical Markets
  • Figure 3.9: NFC in the Automotive Industry
  • 3.2.5 Security
• 3.3 FeliCa
  • 3.3.1 Introduction
  • 3.3.2 Standards & Specification
  • Figure 3.10: Sony FeliCa IC Card and Reader/Writer
  • 3.3.3 Security
  • Figure 3.11: Sony FeliCa Security Features
  • Figure 3.12: FeliCa Networks Platform Management
  • 3.3.4 Uses
  • Figure 3.13: Uses of FeliCa
• 3.4 NFC Drivers and Constraints
  • Figure 3.14: NFC Drivers and Constraints
  • 3.4.1 NFC Drivers
  • i. Transaction Efficiency & Growth
  • ii. Infrastructure Availability
  • iii. Success Stories and PR
  • iv. Future Service Enhancements
  • v. Widespread NFC Applications
  • vi. One to One Mobile Marketing Opportunity
  • 3.4.2 Constraints
  • i. Business Model Uncertainties
  • Figure 3.15: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View
  • ii. Device Availability
  • iii. Service Complexity and Management
  • Figure 3.16: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View
  • iv. Ecosystem Incentivisation
  • v. Infrastructure Availability

4. Market Forecasts: NFC Payments, Fees & Retail Marketing

• 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.1.1 NFC Payments
  • 4.1.2 New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
• 4.2 Methodology
  • 4.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
  • Figure 4.1: NFC Market Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2.2 Geographical Splits
• 4.3 Mobile Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 4.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • 4.4 Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
  • Figure 4.3: Mobile Device Shipment (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.2: Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 4.4: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.3: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
• 4.5 NFC Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
  • Figure 4.5: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.4: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.6: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.5: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.7: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.6: Total Number of Mobile Users (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions 2009- 2014
• 4.6 Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
  • Figure 4.8: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.7: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.9: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.8: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.7 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions
  • Figure 4.10: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs Interim Solutions (m) 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.9: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2009 - 2014
• 4.8 NFC Devices in Use
  • Figure 4.11: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.10: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.12: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.11: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.13: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.12: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009- 2014
• 4.9 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use
  • Figure 4.14: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.13: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.10 NFC Transactions Traffic
• 4.10.1 Average Number of NFC Transactions
  • Figure 4.15: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.14: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • 4.10.2 Total Number of NFC Transactions
  • Figure 4.16: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.15: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.11 NFC Payment Transactions Value
  • Figure 4.17: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.16: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.18: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.17: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.19: NFC Gross Payment Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.18: NFC Gross Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.12 NFC ARPU Opportunities
  • 4.12.1 Mobile Payment Transaction Fees
  • Figure 4.20: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.19: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • 4.12.2 NFC Retail Marketing
  • Figure 4.21: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • Table 4.20: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • 4.12.3 Total NFC ARPU Opportunity
  • Figure 4.22: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • Table 4.21: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014

5. Applications & Services

• 5.1 Applications and Services
  • 5.1.1 Global
  • i. GSM Association Interview
  • Figure 5.1: Pay Buy Mobile Participating MNOs Worldwide
  • ii. NFC Forum Interview
  • Figure 5.2: NFC Projects Testing a Variety of Applications
  • 5.1.2 North America
  • Figure 5.3: Visa payWave Payment Options
  • 5.1.3 South America
  • 5.1.4 Western Europe
  • i. Overview Figure 5.4: A1 mobilkom austria: Buying Train Tickets
  • ii. Visa Europe Interview
  • a. Market Assessment
  • b. Future Trends
  • iii. O2 UK Interview
  • b. O2 Wireless Festival 2007 & 2008
  • c. London Fashion Week February 2008
  • Figure 5.5: O2 Money Service
  • iv. Italy. 93
  • v. France 93
  • 5.1.5 Eastern Europe
  • 5.1.6 Indian Sub Continent
  • 5.1.7 Far East & China
  • i. NTT DoCoMo
  • Figure 5.6: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept
  • Figure 5.7: Osaifu-Keitai in Various Scenes in Daily Life
  • Figure 5.8: Growth of Mobile Commerce Revenues in Japan 2004 - 2007 (100 million yen)96
  • ii. SK Telecom
  • 5.1.8 Rest of Asia Pacific
  • i. Malaysia 97
  • Figure 5.9: Maxis FastTap Service
  • Figure 5.10: Maxis FastTap Service Outlets
  • ii. Singapore 99
  • iii. Australia 99
  • 5.1.9 Africa and Middle East

6. Vendors

• 6.1 Introduction
  • 6.1.1 Innovision
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.1: Topaz Tags
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.2 NXP
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.3 Nokia
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.2: Nokia 6216 Classic
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • Figure 6.3: Evolution of Mobile Financial Services
  • 6.1.4 ViVOtech
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.4: ViVOtech POS Product Range
  • Figure 6.5: ViVOtech Strategic Development Areas
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.5 Proxama
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.6 Mobile Distillery
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues

7. Standards & Forums

• 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.1.1 Who is Doing What?
  • Table 7.1: Overview of Selected Forum Activity
• 7.2 ETSI
  • 7.2.1 Members
• 7.3 The GSM Association
  • 7.3.1 Mobile Money Activities
  • Figure 7.1: GSMA Mobile Money Activities
  • Figure 7.2: PBM Purchasing Process
  • Figure 7.3: PBM Architecture
  • 7.3.2 Members
• 7.4 International Organisation for Standards (ISO)
  • 7.4.1Members
• 7.5 Mobey Forum
  • 7.5.1Members
• 7.6 NFC Forum
  • Figure 7.4: NFC Forum "N" Mark
  • 7.6.1 Members
• 7.7 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
  • 7.7.1 Members
• 7.8 EMVCo
• 7.9 European Payments Council
• 7.10 Smart Card Alliance
  • 7.10.1 Members
• 7.11 Further Organisations

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