Abstract
Overview
This report compares and evaluates the value of the three consortiums: Symbian
foundation, LiMo foundation and Open handset alliance (android) analysing the
business models for both proprietary and open source.
A six year regional forecasting suite including market share by operating
system is provided as well as looking at relative year on year growth for
smartphone operating systems. It also examines how the App Store approach has
impacted the operating system market and investigates what the future plans
are for the development of OS.
Each one of the open source operating systems are fully analysed providing;
history, overview, indicative handset vendors, technical details and how the
licensing process works. The report also includes a overview for proprietary
operating systems.
Key questions
- How has the recent trend towards open source impacted the rest of the
value chain?
- How will the fortunes of the main players in the operating systems market
develop over the next six years?
- How will the increasing openness in the operating systems market effect
network operators?
- Why has the importance of the operating system risen from the invisible to
the unavoidable?
- Will all the current operating systems survive over the forecast period?
- Why did Nokia buy Symbian and give away all of its technology?
Key Benefits:
- A unique source of combined research and analysis for the mobile open
source market induding technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
- Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
- Unique insights: indudes interviews of leading players with significant
experience of the mobile open source market.
- Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.
Table of Contents
Glossary
Executive Summary
- Types of Open Source OS Business Model
- Types of Proprietary OS
- Why Open Source?
- The Smartphone Market
- Figure ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems
2008-2014
- Table ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems
2008-2014
- Outlook
1. Operating Systems
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Mobile Telecoms Development
- Figure 1.1: The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X Portable Cellular Phone, 1983
- Figure 1.2: The Modu Mini-phone, 2008
- 1.3 What is an Operating System?
- Figure 1.3: How Does the OS Fit into a Mobile Phone?
- 1.4 What is Open Source?
- i. Open Source vs. Free Software
- ii. Open Source Initiative
- iii. The Open Source Definition
- Table 1.1: The Open Source Definition
- 1.5 Open Source vs. Proprietary
- i. Proprietary
- ii. Open Source
- i. The Pros & Cons
- 1.6 The Current Landscape
- 1.6.1Current Operating Systems
- 1.6.2 History of the Open Source Mobile OS
- 1.6.3 Open Source: The Historical View
- Table 1.2: Timeline of Key Events in the Uptake of Open Source OSs in
Mobile
- Figure 1.4: Smartphone Market Share (%) by Operating System, 2008
- i. Prior to June 2008
- Table 1.2: Breakdown of OS by Type (Proprietary & Open Source) Prior
to June 2008
- Figure 1.5: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Prior to
June 2008
- ii. After June 2008
- Figure 1.6: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Following
the Announcement of the Symbian Foundation
- 1.6.4 Open Source: The Way Forward?
2. The Open Source OS
- 2.1 Introduction
- Table 2.1: Open Source OS
- 2.2 LiMo Foundation
- 2.2.1 Overview and History
- 2.2.2 LiMo Users
- Figure 2.1: Panasonic NTT DoCoMo FOMA P905i
- Figure 2.2: The Purple Labs Purple Magic phone
- 2.2.3 Funding
- 2.2.4 Governance
- Figure 2.3: The LiMo Foundation Governance Model
- 2.2.5 Technical Details
- Figure 2.4: RI Platform Scope -The First Release Platform from LiMo
- i. The Foundation Platform
- Figure 2.5: LiMo Platform Architecture, January 2009
- ii. Portability
- iii. Test and Certification
- 2.2.6 Licensing
- i. Foundation API
- ii. Middleware
- iii. Kernel
- iv. Overall Picture
- 2.2.7 Roadmap
- Figure 2.6: R2 Platform Scope
- Figure 2.7: Roadmap from LiMo Foundation (April 2008)
- 2.3 OHA
- 2.3.1 Overview and History
- Table: 2.3 Timeline of OHA Announcements Relating to Android
- 2.3.2 Users
- 2.3.3 Funding
- 2.3.4 Governance
- 2.3.5 Technical Aspects
- Figure 2.8: The Android OS Components
- 2.3.6 Licensing
- 2.3.7 Roadmap
- 2.4 Symbian Foundation
- 2.4.1 Overview and History
- i. Proprietary Symbian OS
- ii. Symbian Foundation
- 2.4.2 Symbian Users
- 2.4.3 Funding
- 2.4.4 Governance.
- Figure 2.9: Symbian Foundation Governance
- 2.4.5 Technical Details
- Figure 2.10: Symbian Foundation Assets to be Unified to Create One
Platform
- i. Core OS
- ii. User Interface Elements
- Figure 2.11: Overview of Symbian Foundation Platform
- 2.4.6 Licensing of Foundations Assets
- 2.4.7 Roadmap
- 2.5 Others
- 2.5.1 Maemo
- 2.5.2 OpenMoko
3. Proprietary Solutions
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 iPhone OS
- 3.2.1 Overview and History
- 3.2.2 Users & Licensing Policy
- 3.2.3 Business Model
- 3.2.4 Technical Details
- 3.2.5 Roadmap
- 3.3 RIM (BlackBerry) OS
- 3.3.1 Overview and History
- 3.3.2 Users & Licensing Policy
- Figure 3.2: Integration of Brands with BlackBerry
- 3.3.3 Business Model
- 3.3.4 Technical Details
- Figure 3.3: BlackBerry Solution Architecture
- i. Application Developers
- 3.3.6 Roadmap
- 3.4 Windows Mobile
- 3.4.1 Overview and History
- 3.4.2 Users & Licensing
- 3.4.3 Business Model
- 3.4.4 Technical Details
- 3.4.5 Roadmap
- 3.5 Palm OS Family
- 3.5.1 Overview and History
- 3.5.2 Users & Licensing
- 3.5.3 Business Model
- 3.5.4 Technical Details
- 3.5.5 Roadmap
4. Business Models
- 4.1 Value of the Proprietary OS
- i. The Types of Business Model
- 4.1.1 Apple: iPhone OS
- i. The App Store
- ii. The Apple Philosophy
- 4.1.2 RIM: BlackBerry OS
- i. Partnership
- ii. BlackBerry Application Storefront
- iii. The “Virtual” BlackBerry
- 4.1.3 ACCESS: Garnet OS
- 4.1.4 Microsoft: Windows Mobile
- 4.2 Value of an Open Source OS
- 4.2.1 The Value Proposition for Open Source
- i. Reduced Development Overhead
- ii. Independence
- iii. Differentiation
- iv. Time to Market
- v. Bug Fixes
- vi. Innovation
- vii. Prevention of Fragmentation
- viii. Service-based Revenue Opportunities
- 4.3 Value Proposition in Mobile OS
- 4.3.1 LiMo Foundation
- i. Members
- ii. Third Party Application Developers
- 4.3.2 Google & OHA
- i. Members
- ii. Third Party Developers
- 4.3.3 Symbian Foundation
- i. Members
- ii. Third Party Developers
- 4.3.4 The Relative Value
- i. Membership Fees
- Figure 4.1: Direct Membership Costs for Each Group ($000)
- ii. Reduction in Licence Royalty Costs
- iii. Licence
- iv. Governance
- v. Quality, Direction and Code Management
- vi. Market Value
- vii. Professional Development Value
- viii. Overall Value
- Figure 4.2: Raw Relative Value Analysis
- a. Licence
- Table 4.1: Relative Value of Openness of Licence
- b. Governance
- Table 4.2: Relative Value of Governance
- c. Quality/Code Management
- Table 4.3: Relative Value of Code Management
- d. Openness & Collaboration
- Table 4.4: Relative Value of Openness and Collaboration
- e. Market Value
- Table 4.5: Relative Value of Market
- f. Overall Value Analysis
- Figure 4.3: Adjusted Relative Value Analysis Based on Market Share
(2009)
- 4.3.5 Value of Each Solution
- i. Direct Membership Costs
- Figure 4.4: Value for Money of Membership
- Table 4.6: The Relative Value for Money of Membership
5. Forecasts
- 5.1 Mobile Handset Shipments
- Figure 5.1: Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.1: Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
- Figure 5.2: Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
- 5.1.2 Smartphones as a Proportion of the Mobile Handset Market
- Table 5.2: Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8
Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
- Table 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
- 5.2 Market Share by Operating System
- 5.2.1 Symbian
- Table 5.4: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian
OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.4: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.6: Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone
Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS 2008-2014
- 5.2.2 LiMo
- Table 5.7: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo
Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.9: Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using
LiMo OS 2008-2014
- 5.2.3 Android
- Table 5.10: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split
by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.6: Smartphones Shipments (m) With Android OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.12: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone
Shipments Using Android OS 2008-2014
- 5.2.4 RIM
- Table 5.13: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM' s
Proprietary OS Split 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.7: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by
8 Key Regions 2008- 2014
- Table 5.14: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by
8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.15: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments
Using RIM' s Proprietary OS 2008-2014
- 5.2.5 iPhone OS
- Table 5.16: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple' s
Proprietary iPhone OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone
OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.17: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone
OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.18: Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments
Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone OS 2008-2014
- 5.2.6 Windows Mobile
- Table 7.19: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets
Using Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.9: Smartphones Shipments (m) Which use Windows Mobile OS
Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.20: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft' s Proprietary
Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.21: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments
Using Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014
- Table 5.22: License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014
- Table 5.23: Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by
8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- 5.2.7 Palm OS Garnet
- Table 5.24: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS
Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.25: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8
Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.10: Smartphones Shipments (m) with Palm OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- 5.2.8 Others
- Table 5.26: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS
Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- Figure 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) with Other OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- Table 5.27: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
- 5.2.9 Total Market Share
- Figure 5.12: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems
2008-2014
- Table 5.28: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems
2008-2014
- 5.3 Market Share by OS Type
- Table 5.29: Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open
Source and Closed Source OS 2008-2014
- Table 5.30: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split
by Open Source, Closed Source & Others 2008-2014
6. Who Uses What?
- 6.1 Membership of Projects
- 6.1.1 LiMo Foundation
- Table 6.1: LiMo Foundation Membership - Founder Members
- Table 6.2: LiMo Foundation Membership - Core Members
- Table 6.3: LiMo Foundation Membership - Associate Members
- 6.1.2 Open Handset Alliance
- Table 6.4: OHA Membership - Founder Members (January 2009)
- Table 6.5: Additional Members of OHA (January 2009)
- 6.1.3 Symbian Foundation
- Table 6.6: Symbian Foundation Membership - Founder Members (January
2009)
- Table 6.7: Symbian Foundation Membership - Endorsing Members (January
2009)
- Table 6.7 (cont)
- 6.2 Overlap
- 6.2.1 Device Manufacturers
- Table 6.8: Device Manufacturer Membership Status, Q1 2009
- 6.2.2 Semiconductors
- Table 6.9: Semiconductor Vendor Membership Status, Q1 2009
- 6.2.3 Network Operators
- Table 6.10: Network Operator Membership Status
- 6.2.4 Software and Services Companies
7. Market Drivers
- 7.1 World Economics
- 6.1.1 Current Economic Situation
- Table 7.1: Annual % Change in Real GDP for 2009 Forecasted for Far
East and Asia Pacific
- i. Asia
- a. China
- b. Japan
- c. Singapore
- d. South Korea
- e. Taiwan
- ii. Western Europe
- iii. Eastern Europe
- iv. North America
- a. United States
- b. Canada
- v. South America & Caribbean
- a. Africa & Middle East
- b. Middle East
- c. Israel
- vii. Indian Sub Continent
- vii. Rest of Asia Pacific
- a. Australia, New Zealand
- 7.1.2 Future Predictions
- i. Prospects for the Overall Mobile Market
- a. Innovation
- b. Investment in New Technology
- c. Market Growth
- 7.2 The Impact on Operating Systems
- 7.2.1 Proprietary
- i. Microsoft - Windows Mobile OS
- a. Commoditisation
- b. High Spread/Low Penetration of Market
- c. Perception
- d. Outcomes
- ii. Apple iPhone OS
- a. Cost of OS
- b. History of Innovation
- c. Target Market
- d. Outcomes
- iii. RIM
- a. Target Market
- b. Cost of OS
- c. Market Differentiation
- d. Outcomes
- 7.2.2 Open Source
- i. LiMo
- ii. Android
- iii. Symbian
- 7.2.3 Overall Market
Appendix 1
- Interviews
- LiMo Foundation
- Symbian/Symbian Foundation
- Funambol
- Aricent
- ARM
- RIM
- DeviceAnywhere
- VMware
- Foehn
- Dexterra
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