Abstract
Overview
This report presents three different scenarios of how the femtocells market
will develop over the next six years up until 2014; best case, baseline and
worst case scenario.
Key femtocells forecasts include; the number of femtocells access points
shipped both for stand-alone access points and integrated access points, 3G
home femtocell subscribers and femtocell service revenues split by; free
calling plan, basic monthly value, new and enhanced services and incremental
revenue from existing femtocell services.
Each of the femtocell projections uses a twin track approach, based on
forecasts of both residential broadband subscribers and forecast of 3G
consumer subscribers, and the scenarios evaluate the market impact of various
femtocell penetration rates.
Key Questions answered by this report:
- How many 3G femtocells will be installed in homes by region over the next
five years?
- What are the consumer 3G femtocell take-up scenarios over the next five
years?
- How many consumers will use 3G femtocells by region over the next five
years?
- How much service revenue will 3G femtocells in the home generate?
- What are the shipment breakdowns between standalone and integrated
femtocells between 2009 and 2014?
- How will North America, Western Europe and the Far East & China compare
for femtocell deployments?
- What are the top factors driving the consumer 3G femtocell market?
- What are the top hurdles the technology has to overcome to achieve mass
market?
Key Benefits:
- A unique source of combined rsearch and analysis for the 3G femtocells
market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
- Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operato.rs
- Unique insights: includes interviews of leading players with significant
experience of the 3G femtocells market.
- Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.
Table of Contents
Glossary
Executive Summary
- Introduction
- Industry Update
- Market Forecast Scenarios
- 3G Femtocell Access Point Forecast
- 3G Femtocell Subscribers Forecast
- 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Forecast
- Market Drivers
- Recommendations
1. Technology & Market Drivers
- 1.1 Definition
- Figure 1.1: Femtocell Network Connectivity
- Figure 1.2: Femtocell Network at Home
- Figure 1.3 Femtocell Services in the Home
- 1.2 Network Hardware Elements
- 1.2.1 Chipsets
- 1.2.2 Access Points
- Figure 1.4: ip.access Oyster 3G Femtocell Access Point
- Figure 1.5: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
- Figure 1.6 Alcatel-Lucent/Sagem Femtocell Access Point
- 1.2.3 Gateways
- Figure 1.7: Femtocell Converged Gateway GENBAND G9
- 1.3 Recent Developments
- 1.3.1 3GPP Release 8 Standard
- 1.3.2 Interference
- 1.3.2 Business Case
- 1.3.3 Further Standards
- 1.4 Market Drivers
- 1.4.1 Personal Connectivity: �gAlways On�h
- Figure 1.8: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle
- 1.4.2 Poor In-Building Coverage
- Figure 1.9: Voice vs. Data ARPU 2008 by Country
- 1.4.3 Data Traffic Growth & New Services
- i. Orange Reveals Digital Media Boom
- ii. Cisco Data Traffic Forecast
- Figure 1.10: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
- iii. Growth of Mobile Commerce
- Figure 1.11: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens
- Figure 1.12: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal
- iv. Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services
- v. Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution
- Figure 1.13: Mobile Data Drivers - The Role of Video
- 1.4.4 Data Traffic Offload - Cost Reduction
- Figure 1.14: Mobile Broadband Traffic Volume vs. Revenue
- 1.4.5 Femtocell Challenges
- 1.4.6 Conclusion
- Figure 1.15: Femtocell Market Drivers
2. Market Dynamics
- 2.1 Femto Forum Interview
- 2.1.1 Background/History
- 2.1.2 Forum' s Aims
- 2.1.3 Technical Considerations - Interference
- 2.1.4 Femtocell Standardisation
- 2.1.5 Business Case
- 2.1.6 Forum Targets 2009
- 2.1.7 Market Issues and Opportunities
- 2.2 Femtocell Trials
- Table 2.1: 3G Home Femtocell Trials Split by 8 Key Regions
- 2.3 Femtocell Vendor Ecosystem
- 2.3.1 The Big Picture
- 2.3.2 Ecosystem Relationships
- Table 2.2: Femtocell Ecosystem
3. Market Forecast Approach
- 3.1 Methodology
- Figure 3.1: Femtocell Market Forecast Methodology
- 3.2 Geographical Splits
- 3.3 Residential Broadband Subscriber Forecast
- Figure 3.2: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential
Broadband Subscriber by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
- Table 3.1: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential
Broadband Subscriber by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
- Figure 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total
Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
- Table 3.2: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total
Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
- Figure 3.4: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009 - 2014
- Table 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009 - 2014
- 3.4 Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Forecast
- Figure 3.5: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009 - 2014
- Table 3.4: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2009 - 2014
- 3.5 Forecast Scenarios
- Table 3.5: Femtocell Forecast Scenario Parameter Comparison: Baseline,
Best & Worst Cases
4. Baseline Scenario
- 4.1 3G Femtocell Regional Forecast
- 4.1.1 North America
- 4.1.2 Western Europe
- 4.1.3 Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific
- 4.1.4 3G Femtocell Take-up and Access Points Forecasts
- Figure 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
- 4.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
- Figure 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point
Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments
(m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
- Figure 4.4: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
- Figure 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by
Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.4: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (Percent)
Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 4.6: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region
Baseline Scenario 2009 2014
- Table 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
- Figure 4.7: Netgear' s View of Home Connectivity
- Figure 4.8: Netgear - Multi Function Broadband WiFi Gateway
- Figure 4.9: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split
by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.6: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Pricing
- Figure 4.10: picoChip PC302 Single-chip 3GPP Femtocell
- Figure 4.11: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated
Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.7: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated
Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.4 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
- 4.4.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 4.12: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market
($ million) Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.8: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($
million) Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.4.2 Standalone Access Point Market
- Figure 4.13: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.9: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.4.3 Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 4.14: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.10: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.5 3G Femtocell Subscribers
- Figure 4.15: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband
Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.11: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband
Subscribers - by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 4.16: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.12: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.6 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
- 4.6.1 Package Types and Pricing
- 4.6.2 Service Revenues by Package Type
- Figure 4.17: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service
Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 4.18: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Table 4.13: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Figure 4.19: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.14: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.15: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 4.6.2 Service Revenues by Region
- Figure 4.20: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 4.16: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
5. Best Case Scenario
- 5.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
- Figure 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
- 5.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
- Figure 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point
Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments
(m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
- Figure 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region Best
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
- Figure 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split
by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
- 5.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market
($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($
million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
- Figure 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
- Figure 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best
Case Scenario 2009 2014
- Table 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
- 5.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
- Figure 5.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service
Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Table 5.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Figure 5.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package
Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 5.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
- Figure 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6. Worst Case Scenario
- 6.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
- Figure 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split by Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Split 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
- 6.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments 85
- Figure 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point
Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments
(m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
- Figure 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region
Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
- Figure 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split
by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by
8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
- 6.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market
($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($
million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
- Figure 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
- Figure 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million)
Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
- Figure 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
- 6.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
- Figure 6.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service
Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Figure 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Table 6.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 -
2014
- Figure 6.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of
Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package
Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- 6.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
- Figure 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
- Table 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions
Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
7. Scenario Comparison and Analysis
- 7.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
- Figure 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 -
2014
- Table 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers
Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- Figure 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband
Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key
Regions 2014
- Table 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers
Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
- 7.2 3G Femtocell Access Points Scenario Comparison
- Figure 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global
Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- Table 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global
Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- 7.3 3G Femtocell Subscribers Scenario Comparison
- Figure 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best
Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- Table 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best
Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- 7.4 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Scenario Comparison
- Figure 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison
Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- Table 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison
Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
- Figure 7.6: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison
Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
- Figure 7.7: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario
Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
- Table 7.6: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario
Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
- Figure 7.8 O2 Joggler
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