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市場調查報告書

動力傳動系統未來性:2016-2036年

Future Powertrains 2016-2036

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 355136
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 203 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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動力傳動系統未來性:2016-2036年 Future Powertrains 2016-2036
出版日期: 2016年08月01日 內容資訊: 英文 203 Slides
簡介

本報告針對陸用車輛動力傳動系統市場進行調查、提供動力傳動系統各種種類、輕度混合48V新的可能性、重度混合與純EV用動力傳動系統動向、各種零件動向、動力傳動系統選擇基準、市場長期展望與市場機會。

第1章 摘要整理、總結

第2章 介紹

  • 什麼是陸用車輛動力傳動系統?
  • 本書構成
  • 進入排放規範的時代

第3章 動力傳動系統各種種類

  • 純EV與混合
  • 車輛動力傳動系統電動化相關進化
  • 動力傳動系統電動化順序
  • 基本方案與性能的各種種類
  • 零件&系統等級的多種選擇
  • 小型車 vs 大型車電動化
  • 船與飛機的連結
  • 法規影響:範例

第4章 輕度混合48V:傳統型ICE新道路

  • 輕度混合過程

第5章 重度混合電動動力傳動系統

  • 重度 "完全" 混合電動車
  • 重度混合結構
    • 插入選擇
  • 儲存、範圍擴展的選擇比較
  • 範圍擴展
  • 牽引用燃料電池
  • 範圍擴展:燃料電池以外要素
    • 氣體渦輪機、旋轉式內燃機
    • 自由活塞引擎範圍擴展

第6章 純EV

  • 動力傳動系統
    • 建築
    • 牽引式電動機數量、位置相關動向
    • 充電相關課題
    • 電池相關課題
    • 超級電容器相關課題
    • 電池管理系統 (BMS)
  • 大幅度引進、小型車輛、巴士、設計上的課題
  • 汽車、輕型商用車
  • 獨立能源車 (EIV)
    • EIV定義、機能
    • 陸用車輛EIV動力傳動系統
    • EIV動作選擇
    • 風力
    • 主要EIV技術
    • Stella Lux:自用車 (荷蘭)
    • Sunswift eVe:自用車 (澳洲)
    • Resolution、EVA:Cambridge University
    • Immortus EIV自用車 (澳洲)、其他

第7章 主要的一般EV動力傳動系統設備

  • 介紹
  • 回轉機
    • 陸用車輛、船、航空:混合&純電動
    • 車輛牽引回轉機數量增加
    • 整合動向:電動機與變速箱
    • 主要回轉機選擇:牽引力比較
    • 48V輕度混合可逆旋轉回轉機
    • 重度混合&純電動回轉機
    • 輪內馬達動向
    • 飛輪KERS
    • Wrightbus UK混合巴士用的Flybrid KERS
    • Volvo:機械式飛輪的KERS KERS
    • 機械式飛輪KERS:供應商見解
  • 能源儲存
    • 選擇
  • 電池以外的能源儲存
    • 概要
    • 動作原理:電池的超級電容
    • 常用於鋰電池的超級電容
    • 未來可能性
  • 電池
  • 能量收集的新形態 (包括再生)
    • 概要
    • 複數收集互補性
    • 例:再生懸吊繫統
  • 單次電源用小型引擎
    • 潛在性、技術與其他
  • 輕量多機能性材料 "結構電子"
    • 目的
    • 設計問題的結果
  • 動力電子的重要性擴大
  • 總結

圖表

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目錄

The unique IDTechEx report is almost entirely based on the very latest information gathered and interpreted in 2016. Only a global up-to-date view makes sense in this fast-moving subject. Therefore the multilingual PhD level IDTechEx analysts have travelled intensively worldwide in 2015 and 2016 to report the latest research, conferences and expert opinions and to analyse how the markets and technologies will move over the coming 15 years. A typical 10 year forecast is misleading here. For example, IDTechEx sees the reinvented traditional ICE powertrain in the form of the 48V mild hybrid peaking just after that and a huge market for the new energy independent vehicles will appear even later.

Conferences were attended and extensive interviews carried out in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Germany, Ireland, UK, USA and elsewhere clarifying such things as the window of opportunity and potential performance of the different options. A chapter addresses the factors influencing powertrain design from component breakthroughs to new legislation. Another chapter covers the 48V mild hybrid and other chapters analyse strong hybrids in their various forms including fuel cell and the pure electric powertrain in its various forms to come. A final chapter looks at the key component advances now and in future from extreme engine downsizing to multiple energy harvesting/ regeneration and structural supercapacitors and batteries. A new and detailed roadmap is presented for 2016-2036 covering both technology and market development. Ten year forecasts are given for 46 categories of electric vehicle including 48V mild hybrids transitioning to be electric vehicles. No one else has this level of detail.

Uniquely, IDTechEx presents a bigger picture of opportunity than that addressed by other observers and participants. For example, it is commonly taught that 48V mild hybrids can provide and store four times as much electricity for new clients but we show that accepting many new high power inputs of electricity from harvesting and regeneration is equally important. Pure electric vehicles are typically seen as the end game in contactlessly charged form but, beyond that, we show the many energy independent forms appearing, some already on sale. We show how shaped components can evolve further into structural electronics and variants of the supercapacitor can compete with or enhance batteries. We benchmark what is happening in the air and on water but the focus is land vehicles on and off-road. The future is very different from that commonly portrayed and much more exciting.

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Original IDTechEx tables and infographics pull together the analysis with latest presentations from leading vehicle and system manufacturers and developers in three continents. IDTechEx has travelled intensively to the facilities and events on the subject. The report comes with 30 minutes free associated consultancy.

Powertrains of land vehicles are changing out of recognition. Conventional internal combustion engine powertrains are being economically reinvented as 48V mild hybrids with engines downsized up to 70% and three pure electric modes. They will be able to meet even the 2030 emissions regulations after all. Strong hybrid powertrains are proving very popular in the newer form of plug-in versions with long pure electric range, the old types being dead-ended other than in niche applications. Even pure electric vehicles are being reinvented with a new end game of energy independent vehicles relying on only sunshine and other ambient energy. Look closer and the individual components are also being changed radically, including being merged into structural electronics. New forms of rotating electrical machine, energy storage, energy harvesting and regeneration and power electronics have broad applicability across most of this.

The bottom line of all this is that choice of powertrain is not purely a decision based on incremental improvement. Factors include:

  • Design for recyclability
  • Disruptive new components
  • New principles such as energy independence, autonomy
  • Changes in law such as combatting global or local air pollution
  • Government subsidies and tax breaks that can change suddenly
  • Integration of mechanical, electrical and electronic parts - simpler with certain configurations and parts. For example components that move such as batteries swelling and shrinking and motors rotating are tough to integrate into structural materials as "structural electronics" - an important new discipline.
  • Change in what is sought as with Porsche Engineering foreseeing a world of autonomous vehicles favouring pure electric powertrains but also commoditising the powertrain if vehicles are typically not bought by individuals any more but used on demand.

For those that keep up with the latest changes and see the future, rich pickings await.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose and emphasis
  • 1.2. Choice of powertrains is influenced by many factors
  • 1.3. Future powertrain options in land vehicles
  • 1.4. Where cars are headed in 2030
  • 1.5. Future powertrain options in land vehicles 2016-2036: the detail
  • 1.6. Main influences in land vehicle powertrains
    • 1.6.1. New focus for improvement and choice
    • 1.6.2. New important powertrain options
    • 1.6.3. Common enablers
    • 1.6.4. Powertrain parameter priorities
    • 1.6.5. Disruptive change
    • 1.6.6. Summary of primary trends for the most important land vehicle powertrains 2016-2036
  • 1.7. Powertrain timeline 2016-2036
  • 1.8. Death of the strong hybrid that does not plug in?
  • 1.9. Manufacturer priorities 2016-2030
  • 1.10. Increasing importance of power electronics: proliferation and enhancement
  • 1.11. Structural electronics tears up the rule book
  • 1.12. Market size 2016-2026 for electric vehicles and 48V mild hybrid cars (non-EV and EV form)

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. What is a land vehicle powertrain?
  • 2.2. Layout of the report
  • 2.3. Entering the age of emissions control
    • 2.3.1. Tightening regulations
    • 2.3.2. Fuel options for greenhouse gas GHG control
    • 2.3.3. ICE thermal efficiency improvement for emission reduction
    • 2.3.4. Temperature control should get easier

3. TYPES OF POWERTRAIN

  • 3.1. Pure electric or hybrid
  • 3.2. Progression of vehicle powertrain electrification
  • 3.3. Sequence of electrification of powertrains
  • 3.4. Base solutions with performance variants
  • 3.5. Many options opening up at component and system level
  • 3.6. Small vs big vehicle electrification
  • 3.7. Link with water and air vehicles
  • 3.8. Influence of legislation - examples
  • 3.9. Case study: Toyota Development of Power Control Unit for Compact-Size Vehicle

4. MILD HYBRID 48V: NEW LIFE FOR THE TRADITIONAL ICE

  • 4.1. Mild hybrid history

5. STRONG HYBRID ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS

  • 5.1. Strong "Full" Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  • 5.2. Strong hybrid configurations
    • 5.2.1. Plug in option
  • 5.3. Comparison of storage and range extender options
  • 5.4. Range extenders in context
  • 5.5. Fuel cells for traction
  • 5.6. Range extenders: not all about fuel cells!
    • 5.6.1. Gas turbines and rotary combustion
    • 5.6.2. Free piston engine range extenders

6. PURE ELECTRIC VEHICLE PEV

  • 6.1. Powertrain
    • 6.1.1. Architecture
    • 6.1.2. Trend in number and position of traction motors.
    • 6.1.3. Charging issues
    • 6.1.4. Battery issues
    • 6.1.5. Supercapacitor issues
    • 6.1.6. Battery Management System
  • 6.2. Wide adoption, small vehicles, buses, design issues
  • 6.3. Cars and light commercial vehicles
  • 6.4. Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
    • 6.4.1. Why we want more than mechanical energy independence
    • 6.4.2. Energy Independent Vehicles: definition and function
    • 6.4.3. The EIV powertrain for land vehicles
    • 6.4.4. EIV operational choices
    • 6.4.5. Do not forget wind
    • 6.4.6. Key EIV technologies
    • 6.4.7. Stella Lux passenger car Netherlands
    • 6.4.8. Sunswift eVe passenger car Australia
    • 6.4.9. Resolution and EVA solar racers Cambridge University UK
    • 6.4.10. Solar racer derivative: Immortus passenger car EIV Australia
    • 6.4.11. POLYMODEL micro EV Italy
    • 6.4.12. Venturi Eclectic passenger car Italy
    • 6.4.13. Vinerobot micro EV France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Australia
    • 6.4.14. Sold as Lizard EIV: NFH-H microbus China

7. SOME KEY EV POWERTRAIN DEVICES OF GENERAL USE

  • 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.2. Rotating electrical machines
    • 7.2.1. One business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
    • 7.2.2. Increase in number of rotating electrical machines per vehicle for traction
    • 7.2.3. Trend to integration: transmission with electric motors
    • 7.2.4. The main rotating machine options compared for traction
    • 7.2.5. Reversible rotating machines for 48V mild hybrids
    • 7.2.6. Rotating machines for strong hybrids and pure electric
    • 7.2.7. Trend to in-wheel motors
    • 7.2.8. Flywheel KERS
    • 7.2.9. Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
    • 7.2.10. Volvo trial of mechanical flywheel KERS mechanical
    • 7.2.11. Supplier view of mechanical flywheel KERS
  • 7.3. Energy Storage
    • 7.3.1. Options
  • 7.4. Energy Storage Beyond Batteries
    • 7.4.1. Overview
    • 7.4.2. Operational principles: supercapacitors to batteries
    • 7.4.3. Supercapacitors are often used across lithium-ion batteries
    • 7.4.4. Possible future
  • 7.5. Batteries
  • 7.6. New forms of energy harvesting including regeneration
    • 7.6.1. Overview
    • 7.6.2. Complementarity of multiple harvesting
    • 7.6.3. Example: regenerative suspension
  • 7.7. Heavily downsized engines for primary power
    • 7.7.1. Potential and approach
    • 7.7.2. Mahle priorities
    • 7.7.3. Compensating for performance reduction
    • 7.7.4. Results
  • 7.8. Lightweight multifunctional materials "structural electronics"
    • 7.8.1. Objectives
    • 7.8.2. Design problems resulting
  • 7.9. Increasing importance of power electronics
  • 7.10. Interview with Professor Pietro Perlo 26 April 2016
  • 7.11. Wrap up: everything is changing
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