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市場調查報告書

燃料電池電動車的全球市場:2015-2030年 - 陸上車輛,水中設備,飛機

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2015-2030: Land, Water, Air

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 328707
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 216 Pages, 15 Tables, 94 Figures
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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燃料電池電動車的全球市場:2015-2030年 - 陸上車輛,水中設備,飛機 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2015-2030: Land, Water, Air
出版日期: 2016年11月01日 內容資訊: 英文 216 Pages, 15 Tables, 94 Figures
簡介

本報告以燃料電池電動車的全球市場為焦點,針對參與投資、支援、開發、製造、銷售、利用及系統、材料、相關服務的人士,以及參與電池,超級電容器等可選擇零件之價值鏈人士,除了提供以2015-2030年這段期間為對象之市場轉變預測之外,更彙整該技術趨勢和機會,面臨的課題等,最新分析資訊。

第1章 摘要整理及結論

  • 調查範圍及目的
  • 可怕的進步所留下的課題
  • 以現存燃料電池的界限為前題,評估最佳初期市場
  • 最積極的國家和企業
  • 燃料電池道路車輛最適合的國家
  • 各國成熟度曲線(Hype Curve)(技術的成熟度,採用度,對社會的適用度)及配合措施
  • 道路車輛朝向良機發展
  • 現在投資的機會
  • 2015-2025年的計劃表
  • 燃料電池的潛力-2015-2025年:41 EV類別
  • 驅動系統形式比較
  • 是否有必要轉換到氫燃料-最新的爭議
  • 與以提高續航距離為目標的其他技術之比較
  • 燃料電池,電池,候補林立的許多能源採集法
  • 2014-2015年石油價格下降的影響

第2章 簡介

  • 能源資源、燃料、對應驅動系統的各種目標
  • 各地區嚴重的污染
  • 燃料價格及供給的多樣性問題
  • 對地區及地球規模環境污染化的配合措施
  • 燃料電池的選擇
  • 燃料電池汽車的合作案例
  • 規格合作
  • 國家·地區單位的燃料電池汽車優待制度

第3章 燃料電池堆高機:第一個量產成功領域

  • 簡介
  • 市場分析

第4章 燃料電池汽車

  • 現狀及未來性
  • 從大眾市場上過去過度樂觀的態度所吸取的教訓
  • 價值主張
  • 燃料電池汽車廠商及整合商

第5章 燃料電池巴士

  • 複數的目的
  • 技術和計劃
  • 市場差距:今後預測
  • 電池驅動式巴士會是對手,還是技術互補?
  • 良機的窗口:必要的行動
  • 莫大的前進:Daimler的案例
  • 巴士用小型化燃料電池:已經不那麼需要實驗
  • 應該克服的疑慮
  • Hyundai的進步
  • 燃料電池巴士的實驗上路:1990-2015年
  • 歐洲的專注度
  • 美國的專注度
  • 中國的專注度
  • 中國的燃料電池活動:35個機關分析

第6章 其他電動車的燃料電池

  • 水中電動車
  • 飛機
  • 機場GSE(地上支援設備)
  • 配送卡車
  • motor scooter

第7章 汽車廠商以外的交通工具用燃料電池系統廠商

  • 加拿大 Ballard公司
  • 加拿大 Hydrogenics公司
  • 英國 Intelligent Energy公司
  • Nuvera - 美國NACCO Materials Handling公司
  • 德國 Proton Motor Fuel Cell公司

第8章 2015年採訪案例

  • 匿名採訪
  • 英國 Acal Energy公司
  • Proton Power Systems PLC,德國 Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH

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目錄

Only up-to-date comprehensive report on the whole subject with 2015 presentations and interviews.

This report is intended for those seeking to invest, support, develop, make, sell or use vehicle fuel cell systems and their materials and associated services. It will also assist those participating in the value chain of alternatives, such as batteries and supercapacitors, to understand the considerable opportunities for both collaborative use of their components with fuel cells and scope for common technologies.

Interest is re-igniting in vehicle fuel cells after decades of minimal uptake primarily caused by high costs and lack of hydrogen infrastructure but also affected by several other challenges appraised in this report. It is easy to rehearse why fuel cells in vehicles are in the trough of disillusionment in 2015 but look closer and things are stirring as we progress to more sober forecasts and market positioning to get there.

Indeed now is the time to invest, when so many companies have left the business but the first sales in thousands of fuel cell vehicles - in the form of forklifts - are happening without subsidies and you can newly buy fuel cell cars from top names. From Taiwan and Japan, fuel cell scooters now look plausible, the USA uses fuel cells in military vehicles and now fuel cell buses and cars are even shown to double as the emergency electricity supplies sought in Japan.

Most western automotive manufacturers are preparing fuel cell vehicles for sale but nothing is guaranteed, because, as this report analyses, the other option for zero pollution at point of use, the pure electric battery or supercapacitor vehicle, is also improving rapidly and they will often go head to head in the marketplace. Which will have predominantly green "fuel" first - fuel cell or battery alone? Which will cost least up front and over life? What performance will really be achieved? For example, refuelling time is not fast if you take ages to get to a refuelling station. Energy density of the fuel is irrelevant if the powertrain using it is larger and heavier. This report pricks the bubbles to reveal the genuinely good prospects and the PEM fuel cell, intelligently applied, is one of them.

These complex issues, vital to optimal targeting of investment by auto, chemical, financial, fleet management and other players are appraised in the report. Vitally, it is mainly based on 2015 interviews not out-of-date information. It presents latest conference slides from many key players and new data analysis and forecasts. That means numbers for 2015 - 2025 and timelines to 2030 including the latest, revised predictions from the leading players and from IDTechEx. This is analysis not evangelism and all pros and cons are considered from a global viewpoint that takes into account the very different attitudes of governments and the very different resources of countries, carefully teasing out success criteria. The emphasis is today and in future not nostalgia from the past. There is a chapter on the background including legal, psychological, standards and other aspects, a chapter on the first commercial success - material handling vehicles, a very detailed chapter on fuel cell cars, a detailed one on buses, one on other fuel cell vehicles land, water and air and one on the fuel cell system manufacturers.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Scope and objective
    • 1.1.1. What is an electric vehicle fuel cell?
    • 1.1.2. The end game
    • 1.1.3. Fuel cell types covered
  • 1.2. Formidable progress, issues remaining
  • 1.3. Assessment of best initial markets given current fuel cell limitations
  • 1.4. The most active countries and companies
  • 1.5. The most suitable countries for fuel cell road vehicles
  • 1.6. Hype curve and attitude by company
  • 1.7. Window of opportunity for road vehicles
  • 1.8. Invest now
  • 1.9. Timelines 2015-2025
  • 1.10. Fuel cell market potential 2015-2025 for 41 EV categories
  • 1.11. Drive train types compared
  • 1.12. Need to go via hydrogen? Latest debate
  • 1.13. Comparison with other range extenders
  • 1.14. Fuel cells, batteries and multiple energy harvesting are allies
  • 1.15. Hydrogen: HRS deployment, viable green sources, price trends
  • 1.16. Effect of 2014-5 oil price collapse
  • 1.17. Forecasts by platinum producers
  • 1.18. Searching for a USP
  • 1.19. News in 2016
    • 1.19.1. Samsung - April 2016
    • 1.19.2. ITM Power - April 2016
    • 1.19.3. Cactus inspired skin gives electric cars a spike
    • 1.19.4. Exiting fuel cells - June 2016
    • 1.19.5. Nissan announces development of the world's first SOFC-powered vehicle system that runs on bio-ethanol electric power - June 2016
    • 1.19.6. New class of fuel cells offer increased flexibility, lower cost - August 2016
    • 1.19.7. Zero-emission air transport - first flight of four-seat passenger aircraft HY4 - September 2016
    • 1.19.8. Toyota firm on fuel cell - November 2016
    • 1.19.9. Fleets - Late 2016
    • 1.19.10. Battery vs fuel cell assessment end 2016

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Objectives for energy sources and fuels, appropriate powertrains
  • 2.2. Severe local pollution
    • 2.2.1. Sustainable society with or without hydrogen?
  • 2.3. Fuel price and diversity of supply issues
  • 2.4. Tackling local and global pollution
    • 2.4.1. Legal remedies
    • 2.4.2. Financial incentives
    • 2.4.3. Technological remedies
  • 2.5. The fuel cell option
    • 2.5.1. EV fuel cells
    • 2.5.2. Superlative energy density
    • 2.5.3. Cost parity in 2030 for road vehicles
    • 2.5.4. Fuel cell system architecture for vehicles
    • 2.5.5. Battery or supercapacitor across the fuel cell?
    • 2.5.6. How and why many add supercapacitors
    • 2.5.7. Fuel cell dominant systems
    • 2.5.8. Regenerative fuel cell system for vehicles and HRS
    • 2.5.9. Storage of hydrogen in vehicles
    • 2.5.10. Sources of hydrogen, progress towards green hydrogen
    • 2.5.11. Solar hydrogen stations
    • 2.5.12. FC Vehicle to house emergency power
  • 2.6. Some FC vehicle alliances
    • 2.6.1. Global alliances
    • 2.6.2. Toyota and BMW
    • 2.6.3. Honda and GM
    • 2.6.4. Suzuki and Intelligent Energy
  • 2.7. Standards collaboration
  • 2.8. National and regional FC vehicle initiatives
    • 2.8.1. Brazil
    • 2.8.2. China
    • 2.8.3. Europe
    • 2.8.4. UK
    • 2.8.5. Germany
    • 2.8.6. Nordic countries
    • 2.8.7. Other countries in Europe
    • 2.8.8. China
    • 2.8.9. India
    • 2.8.10. Iran, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia
    • 2.8.11. Japan
    • 2.8.12. South Africa
    • 2.8.13. South Korea
    • 2.8.14. USA
    • 2.8.15. Honda Clarity fuel cell car exhibited at EVS29 Montreal Canada June 2016

3. FUEL CELL FORKLIFTS: THE FIRST VOLUME SUCCESS

  • 3.1. Introduction
    • 3.1.1. Small forklift success
    • 3.1.2. A look at many FC forklifts across the world
    • 3.1.3. Plug Power transforms the industry
    • 3.1.4. Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT
  • 3.2. Market analysis
    • 3.2.1. FC material handling fleets and standards

4. FUEL CELL CARS

  • 4.1. Current status and potential
    • 4.1.1. Success criteria
    • 4.1.2. Progress towards success
  • 4.2. Lessons from mass market over-optimism in the past
  • 4.3. Value proposition
  • 4.4. FC car manufacturers and integrators
    • 4.4.1. Overview: 19 OEMS and their FCs
    • 4.4.2. Belenos Clean Power Holding Switzerland
    • 4.4.3. BMW Germany
    • 4.4.4. Daimler Germany
    • 4.4.5. Ford USA
    • 4.4.6. GM USA
    • 4.4.7. GreenGT Belgium
    • 4.4.8. Honda Japan
    • 4.4.9. Hyundai Korea
    • 4.4.10. ITM Power UK
    • 4.4.11. Nissan Japan
    • 4.4.12. Michelin France
    • 4.4.13. Riversimple UK
    • 4.4.14. Toyota Japan
    • 4.4.15. Toyota Mirai
    • 4.4.16. VW Group including Audi Germany
    • 4.4.17. Other approaches
  • 4.5. Plans for launch of fuel cell cars.
    • 4.5.1. BMW have plans for fuel cell vehicles by 2020
    • 4.5.2. Honda fuel cell vehicles 2016.

5. FUEL CELL BUSES

  • 5.1. Several purposes
  • 5.2. Technology and timelines
  • 5.3. Gaps in market: future prospects
  • 5.4. Battery bus is rival or complementary?
  • 5.5. Window of opportunity: necessary actions
    • 5.5.1. Competitive end game
    • 5.5.2. Daimler view of work ahead
  • 5.6. Tremendous advances: Daimler examples
    • 5.6.1. Advances
    • 5.6.2. Daimler program 2015-2025
  • 5.7. Smaller fuel cells in buses: fewer trials needed
  • 5.8. Scepticism to overcome
  • 5.9. Hyundai progress
  • 5.10. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015
    • 5.10.1. Trials 1990-2010
    • 5.10.2. Trials 2011-2015
  • 5.11. Commitment in Europe
  • 5.12. Commitment in the USA
    • 5.12.1. Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US
    • 5.12.2. Flint MTA testing Proterra hydrogen fuel cell bus prototype for one year - October 2016
  • 5.13. Commitment in China

6. FUEL CELLS IN OTHER VEHICLES

  • 6.1. Underwater
  • 6.2. On water
    • 6.2.1. Hydrogen fuel cell technology for maritime applications
  • 6.3. Aircraft
    • 6.3.1. Types
    • 6.3.2. Cost comparison by NASA
  • 6.4. Fuel cell jet aircraft
  • 6.5. Airport GSE
  • 6.6. Delivery trucks
    • 6.6.1. Fuel cell trucks in 2016
  • 6.7. Motor scooters

7. EXAMPLES OF VEHICLE FC SYSTEM MAKERS BEYOND THE CAR FIRMS

  • 7.1. Ballard Canada
  • 7.2. Hydrogenics Canada
  • 7.3. Intelligent Energy UK
  • 7.4. Nuvera - NACCO Materials Handling USA
  • 7.5. Proton Motor Fuel Cell Germany

8. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS IN 2015

  • 8.1. 15 short interviews for seven countries
  • 8.2. Acal Energy UK
  • 8.3. Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany

IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTING

TABLES

  • 1.1. Fuel cell and other hybrid vehicle powertrains: advantages against each other
  • 1.2. Comparison between pure electric battery power trains and fuel cell + battery ones
  • 1.3. Current limitations of PEM fuel cells in vehicles
  • 1.4. The keenest countries
  • 1.5. Divided opinion on future of traction fuel cells in electric vehicles
  • 1.6. Vehicle fuel cell timeline 2015-2025 from various sources, omitting those that have become totally unrealistic.
  • 1.7. Vehicle fuel cell timeline 2025-2050
  • 1.8. Electric vehicle market segments with the most potential for adoption of fuel cells identified within system number projections in thousands for annual sales
  • 1.9. Which option?
  • 2.1. Some reasons for adopting electric powertrains
  • 2.2. Hydrogen storage options
  • 4.1. Overview manufacturers and other analysts of sales fuel cell car forecasts (unit/year) by region
  • 4.2. 19 manufacturers and developers of fuel cell cars by country, fuel cell maker and type
  • 5.1. Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown brown.
  • 5.2. Examples of PEM fuel cell buses 2011-2015

FIGURES

  • 1.1. Fuel cell electric vehicle issues lying ahead
  • 1.2. Hype curve for fuel cells in vehicles by year
  • 1.3. The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking FCH in Europe prepared the following cost projection
  • 1.4. Commercial and off-road technology roadmap
  • 1.5. Gravimetric and volumetric energy density for vehicle fuels compared
  • 1.6. Honda promotion of the hydrogen cycle for vehicles
  • 1.7. Energy and work synchronization
  • 1.8. The electrified open cast mine using pure electric haul trucks and rail-veyors
  • 1.9. Schematic of the current value chain of fuel cells in buses
  • 1.10. Ragone plot of electrochemical vehicle energy storage options
  • 1.11. Types of range extender by cost and local emission, with the zero emission options compared with energy harvesting, all of which has zero local emission
  • 1.12. Types of energy harvesting by type of vehicle
  • 1.13. Nissan view of hydrogen deployment and price 2015 onwards
  • 1.14. Researchers from the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR)
  • 1.15. The HY4 fuel cell aircraft
  • 2.1. Toyota view of fuel security - conserve and diversify - by vehicle powertrain design
  • 2.2. Toyota comparison of powertrain architecture, strengths and weaknesses
  • 2.3. Energy and environmental issues
  • 2.4. Sustainable society with strong hydrogen involvement
  • 2.5. Analysis of energy issue as presented by Honda in 2015
  • 2.6. PEM fuel cell schematic
  • 2.7. Suitability of different electric powertrains in replacing internal combustion traditional powertrains
  • 2.8. The powertrain of a battery pure electric car top (Tesla S - battery as floor) of about 350 miles range compared with a fuel cell car (Toyota Mirai, extra radiator not shown) of similar range
  • 2.9. 2015 Toyota Mirai schematic
  • 2.10. Greenhouse gas/ total cost of ownership comparison for fuel cell vs diesel buses, standard and articulated in 2030
  • 2.11. Basic fuel cell system for a vehicle
  • 2.12. Fuel cell system for 160 kW bus (e-net)
  • 2.13. Layout of bus fuel cell system
  • 2.14. Basic car fuel cell system
  • 2.15. PAC-carII fuel economy car fuel cell system and electricity system
  • 2.16. Battery pure electric vehicle system within vehicle energy management functions shown for comparison
  • 2.17. Use of battery or supercapacitor across fuel cell in vehicle
  • 2.18. Configuration of fuel cell with supercapacitor
  • 2.19. Fuel cell regenerative system
  • 2.20. Toyota view of potential sources of hydrogen
  • 2.21. Solar hydrogen station
  • 2.22. Smart hydrogen station and system for cars acting as emergency electricity supplies
  • 2.23. V2H demonstration at city of Kitakyusu
  • 2.24. Toyota opens patents
  • 2.25. Electrification with lithium-ion battery or fuel cell system
  • 2.26. Honda view of standards in 2015
  • 2.27. Nissan view of standards in 2015
  • 2.28. Working bus in London with Ballard fuel cells
  • 2.29. Japanese attitude to hydrogen
  • 2.30. Toyota view of fuel cell market positioning.
  • 2.31. Honda Clarity fuel cell car exhibited at EVS29 Montreal Canada June 2016
  • 3.1. Toyota fuel cell forklift and other fuel cell vehicles and activities
  • 3.2. Fuel cell forklifts from across the world
  • 3.3. Refuelling a Plug Power unit
  • 3.4. APFCT fuel cell forklift system showing two refueller cabinets
  • 4.1. Extracts of Daimler presentation on fuel cell cars 2014-5
  • 4.2. Hyundai next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system
  • 4.3. Nissan fuel cell vehicle presentation 2015 - extracts
  • 4.4. Riversimple fuel cell car
  • 4.5. Toyota view of positioning of fuel cell vehicles
  • 4.6. Toyota Mirai car
  • 4.7. Mirai possible price reduction based on cost reduction.
  • 4.8. Toyota FCV history
  • 4.9. Toyota fuel cell system and Mirai architecture
  • 4.10. Pocket Mirai
  • 4.11. Volkswagen presentation in Taiwan Oct 2014
  • 4.12. Honda FCV Concept
  • 5.1. Fuel cell bus for providing emergency electricity
  • 5.2. Fuel cell electric bus schematic
  • 5.3. Daimler's technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
  • 5.4. Daimler fuel cell bus and car status
  • 5.5. Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles
  • 5.6. Cost potential of fuel cell technology
  • 5.7. Packaging improvement planned
  • 5.8. Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler
  • 5.9. Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany
  • 5.10. Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators
  • 5.11. Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
  • 5.12. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2010
  • 5.13. Daimler Citaro bus
  • 5.14. Van Hool bus with UTC Power fuel cell
  • 5.15. New Flyer/Bluways bus with Ballard fuel cell
  • 5.16. Proterra bus with Hydrogenics fuel cell (plug-in, battery dominant)
  • 6.1. Urashima Fuel Cell Underwater Vehicle FCUV.
  • 6.2. High-speed passenger ferry powered by hydrogen fuel cell technology
  • 6.3. Boeing trial of a fuel cell concept aircraft and below flown prototype
  • 6.4. Lange aviation fuel cell aircraft trialled in Germany
  • 6.5. NASA cost comparison of a gasoline and fuel cell plane.
  • 6.6. Fuel cell surveillance airship
  • 6.7. Renault H2 Maxity Electric truck powered by batteries and Symbio fuel cell
  • 6.8. Fuel cell scooters in Taiwan
  • 6.9. Charging scooter with hydrogen
  • 6.10. Replacing hydrogen canister
  • 7.1. Ballard presentation
  • 7.2. Intelligent Energy 100 kW fuel cell for vehicles such as buses
  • 7.3. Transition to cars
  • 7.4. Proton Motor Fuel cell 2015 presentation on its vehicle fuel cells
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