油電混合車及純電動車：2012年∼2022年

油電混合車及純電動車：2012年∼2022年 是由出版商IDTechEx Ltd.在2012年01月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含191 Pages 價格從美金3995起跳。

簡介

電動車越來越受到矚目，過去111年間依賴電池之電動車（純電動車）之行走距離僅30-50哩，唯一之高爾夫車型每年銷售了數十萬台。但2009年10月，因大幅度進步之發表，使今後電動車將大舉滲透市場，2015年止預計將有35%之汽車為電動車。其中預計25%為油電混合電動車，10%為純電動車，但純電動車更具有拓展市場佔有率之可能性。今後沒有電動車產品線之汽車製造商，將使自己陷入絕境。

本報告為，調查分析全球油電混合車及純電動車市場現況、展望，並匯整各種技術、主要各企業產品及新模型、能源收集、新傳輸技術、燃料電池之發展、銷售台數變化及預測等，以下列摘要形式闡述。

第1章 實施概要、總論

第2章 簡介

第3章 純電動車

• 反對意見
• 似曾相識
• 純電動車舉例
  • 日產：最積極
  • 中國之進軍：BY及Brilliance
  • 高效純電動車車：Tesla
  • Pininfarina Bollore之Bluecar
  • Heuliez之Friendly
  • REVA
  • Coda：Hafei Saibao（中國）
  • ElBil Norge之Buddy
  • Toyota
  • Detroit Electric
  • Tara Tiny
  • Aixam
  • Zap Alias
  • 三菱汽車工業
  • Golf EV

第4章 油電混合車

• 油電混合車結構及優勢
• 進化
• Chevrolet Volt
• Bright Automotive之SUV
• 市場驅力
  • 主要指標
• 油電混合車歷史及2013年計畫中模型

第5章 主要實踐技術

• 主要3個實踐技術轉為6個
• 多個新型行程延伸引擎
• 超級電容器
• 能力收集
• 印刷電子及電子產品
• 結構性組件及智慧外觀
• 創新充電
• 軍用陸地車輛及馬達
• 第三代牽引電池

第6章 油電混合車模式及技術

• 直列式 vs 並列式油電混合車
• 油電混合之駕駛模式
  • 插入式混合動力
  • 電荷耗盡型
  • 混合模式
  • 持續充電模式
  • 混合模式
• 微油電混合為誤稱
• 極完整之油電混合化
• 油電混合之價格溢價
• 電池成本及效能為關鍵
• 儲能技術之權衡
• 超級電容器＝超級電容器
• 超級電容器適合部分
• 優點和缺點
• 超級電容器可替代電池嗎？
• 超級電容器為點火器嗎
• 何謂行程延伸引擎？
• 行程延伸引擎被要求之項目：2012-2022年
• 3代行程延伸引擎
  • 第1代行程延伸引擎ー技術
  • 第2代行程延伸引擎ー技術
  • 第3代行程延伸引擎ー技術
• 燃料電池行程延伸引擎
• 大多之適當電源組合有極大效果
• 電動車之能源收集
• 高電壓化趨勢
• 獲得能源密度/輸出密度用組件之選擇
• 分佈式組件之趨勢
• 非智慧型外觀，而以平順為主要趨勢

第7章 市場預測

• 汽車生產
• 汽車及原油
  • 技術進步
• 油電混合車
  • 油電混合車之銷售變化
• 預測：2010-2020年
• 純電動車
  • 總市場
  • 純電動車銷售可否超越油電混合車？
  • 高爾夫球車外市場
  • 高爾夫球車
  • 燃料電池EV
• 電池趨勢

第8章 服務站：國家別

• 必要之充電基礎設施為何？

付録1：IDTechE之出版品及諮詢業

圖表

目錄

“Electric vehicles will penetrate the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025”

These changes include:

• Launch of cars that have a range of 250 miles or more in pure electric mode, including a pure EV family car made in China and plug in hybrid gasoline-electric and diesel-electric cars.
• Launch of the Toyota Prius plug in hybrid that is very attractive to over one million purchasers of the existing Prius mild hybrid and millions of others. 95% of Prius owners would buy another.
• First full production of the beautiful Tesla pure EV luxury sports car and other sports cars which silently outperform conventional equivalents.
• Large initial orders show that this can be a multibillion dollar sector of the EV car business, particularly if we include new luxury hybrids such as the gorgeous Fiskar Karma and what may result from Ferrari, Porsche and others racing to catch up.
• Lithium electric car batteries from companies such as LGChem are claimed to last at least ten years, not the more usual three years. This hugely improves the economics of all EVs with range acceptable to mainstream purchasers.
• President Obama's Stimulus Bill granted $14.4 billion for hybrids and huge sums have been allotted by other governments across the world to develop and subsidise use of EV cars to save the planet and the car industry and provide independence from dwindling oil reserves.

Within the decade, it will be possible for some suppliers to offer hybrid cars and no price premium to conventional cars in the way that the Japanese took the Western car market by storm 20 years ago by offering excellent vehicles with most accessories thrown in free. There would then be no strong reason why anyone would want the conventional alternative.

This unique report takes a detailed look at the market size from 2012-2022 and the government support, technology and new model launches that will get it there. It assesses work on energy harvesting in vehicles from light, heat and shock absorbers, new battery technologies, fuel cells, flywheels and other advances and clarifies which really matter.

Here you can also learn which countries and companies have the most impressive and why.

The only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide

Entirely researched in 2009 and 2010 and extensively updated in 2012, this report gives the only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide. With over 245 pages and over 175 figures and tables including many new and detailed summaries and forecasts, it gives the future in the context of the past including the mistakes and inspired moves for over 100 years.

This report looks closely at the forceful new market drivers such as peak oil and government subsidies but it does not dwell on the well understood global warming debate that is also now driving things forward. Instead, it provides essential data useful to all investors, manufacturers, developers, component suppliers, marketing outlets, legislators and those planning financial support. Which will be the prosperous niches? What is the neglected part of leader Toyota's multibillion dollar business in EVs? Where is the action globally? Why is the geometry of the EV about to change? What about supercapacitors, supercabatteries, zinc air batteries and even transparent solar cells fixed over the windows? It is all here, provided by a global team of technical experts who have been tracking this industry for ten years and writing highly acclaimed forecasts about it.

• Last update: Jan 2012
• Forecasts to: 2022
• Total Number of Pages: 191
• Total Number of Tables: 36
• Total Number of Figures: 101

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• 1.1. The market for electric cars
• 1.2. Hybrid vs pure EV forecasts
• 1.3. Will cars be plugged in during a journey?
• 1.4. Geographical demand
• 1.5. Progress of the market leader Toyota
• 1.6. Golf cars will have little growth.
• 1.7. Technical progress

2. INTRODUCTION

• 2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out.
• 2.2. Danger signs
• 2.3. Government support
• 2.4. Reluctant Australia
• 2.5. Formidable initiatives in the USA
• 2.6. Europe the laggard
  • 2.6.1. Impressive efforts in Germany
• 2.7. Formidable East Asia
• 2.8. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
• 2.9. Providing charging infrastructure
  • 2.9.1. Recharging points
  • 2.9.2. Battery changing points
  • 2.9.3. Can the grid cope?

3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS

• 3.1. The arguments against
• 3.2. Deja Vu
• 3.3. Examples of pure EV cars
  • 3.3.1. Nissan - most ambitious of all?
  • 3.3.2. Here come the Chinese - BYD and Brilliance
  • 3.3.3. High performance pure EVs - Tesla
  • 3.3.4. Pininfarina Bollore Bluecar
  • 3.3.5. Heuliez Friendly
  • 3.3.6. REVA
  • 3.3.7. Coda - Hafei Saibao, China
  • 3.3.8. ElBil Norge Buddy
  • 3.3.9. Toyota
  • 3.3.10. Detroit Electric
  • 3.3.11. Tara Tiny
  • 3.3.12. Aixam
  • 3.3.13. Zap Alias
  • 3.3.14. Mitsubishi
  • 3.3.15. Golf EVs

4. HYBRID CARS

• 4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
• 4.2. Evolution
• 4.3. Chevrolet Volt
• 4.4. Bright Automotive SUV
• 4.5. Market drivers
  • 4.5.1. Leading indicators
• 4.6. History of hybrids and planned models to 2013

5. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS

• 5.1. Three key enabling technologies become six
• 5.2. Many new forms of range extender
• 5.3. Supercapacitors
• 5.4. Energy harvesting
• 5.5. Printed electronics and electrics
• 5.6. Structural components and smart skin
• 5.7. Innovative charging
• 5.8. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors
• 5.9. Third generation traction batteries

6. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY

• 6.1. Series vs parallel hybrid
• 6.2. Modes of operation of hybrids
  • 6.2.1. Plug in hybrids
  • 6.2.2. Charge-depleting mode
  • 6.2.3. Blended mode
  • 6.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode
  • 6.2.5. Mixed mode
• 6.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer
• 6.4. Deep hybridisation
• 6.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium
• 6.6. Battery cost and performance are key
• 6.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
• 6.8. Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
• 6.9. Where supercapacitors fit in
• 6.10. Advantages and disadvantages
• 6.11. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
• 6.12. Supercabatteries or bacitors
• 6.13. What is a range extender?
• 6.14. What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
• 6.15. Three generations of range extender
  • 6.15.1. First generation range extender technology
  • 6.15.2. Second generation range extender technology
  • 6.15.3. Third generation range extender technology
• 6.16. Fuel cell range extenders
• 6.17. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
• 6.18. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
• 6.19. Trend to high voltage
• 6.20. Component choices for energy density/ power density
• 6.21. Trend to distributed components
• 6.22. Trend to flatness then smart skin

7. MARKET FORECASTS

• 7.1. Car production
• 7.2. Cars and crude oil
  • 7.2.2. Technical progress
• 7.3. Hybrid cars
  • 7.3.1. History of hybrid car sales
• 7.4. Forecasts 2010-2020
• 7.5. Pure EVs
  • 7.5.1. Total market
  • 7.5.2. Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids?
  • 7.5.3. Market excluding golf cars
  • 7.5.4. Golf cars
  • 7.5.5. Fuel cell EVs
• 7.6. Battery trends

8. GAS STATIONS BY COUNTRY

• 8.1. What level of recharging infrastructure is needed?

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

• 1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.2. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2010-2020
• 1.3. Global electric car sales in thousands for 2011 and 2012 by manufacturer including neighbourhood electric vehicles NEV but not golf cars.
• 1.4. Toyota Prius sales 1997-2010 by region in thousands
• 1.5. Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of unites and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
• 1.6. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and % rounded
• 1.7. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
• 1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 1.9. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
• 1.10. Approximate number of new hybrid car models planned by year 2000 to 2013
• 1.11. Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
• 1.12. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
• 1.13. Global oil reserves, production and life
• 2.1. European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros
• 2.2. Global stimulus for fuel efficient cars in 2009
• 2.3. 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
• 3.1. 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
• 4.1. Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales
• 4.2. Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid
• 4.3. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 4.4. Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011
• 6.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
• 7.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
• 7.2. Global oil reserves, production and life
• 7.3. Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
• 7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 7.5. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
• 7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
• 7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
• 7.8. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
• 7.9. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
• 7.10. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
• 7.11. Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013
• 7.12. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.13. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
• 8.1. Number of gas stations (“service stations”) by region in 2010

• 1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.4. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
• 1.5. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
• 1.6. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally
• 1.7. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 1.9. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 1.10. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
• 1.11. Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2009-2013
• 1.12. The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2009-2013
• 1.13. Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
• 1.14. Clockwise from top left: BYD E6 from China, Tesla, Fisker Karma and Prius
• 1.15. Oil reserve life in years by country
• 1.16. US oil production and imports
• 2.1. Geographical distribution of 80 companies making or intending to make electric cars
• 2.2. GE WattStation
• 3.1. Trouve pure EV car in 1881
• 3.2. Red Bug pure EV in 1930
• 3.3. Sinclair C5
• 3.4. Aptera
• 3.5. Gemcars
• 3.6. The BYD E6 pure EV car
• 3.7. Tesla Motors Roadster pure EV performance car
• 3.8. Pininfarina Bollore Bluecar showing solar panels on roof and hood
• 3.9. Pininfarina Bollore Bluecar cross section
• 3.10. Heuliez Friendly
• 3.11. REVA pure EV car
• 3.12. The all-electric Coda car, made in China
• 3.13. Buddy pure EV
• 3.14. Planned Toyota pure EV city car
• 3.15. Tara Tiny
• 3.16. Aixam Mega City
• 3.17. ZAP Alias pure EV three wheeler
• 3.18. Mitsubishi pure EV car
• 3.19. Tonaro from China
• 3.20. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
• 3.21. Yongkang Fourstar from China
• 3.22. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars
• 4.1. Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles
• 4.2. Chevrolet Volt internal structure
• 4.3. Chevrolet Volt drive train
• 4.4. Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning
• 4.5. Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
• 4.6. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 5.1. Planned Jaguar long range supercar with two micro turbine range extenders generating 140kW total
• 5.2. Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen
• 5.3. Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants
• 5.4. Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car.
• 5.5. Drayson electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries
• 5.6. Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in.
• 6.1. Some hybrid variants
• 6.2. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
• 6.3. Trend to deep hybridisation
• 6.4. Evolution of hybrid structure
• 6.5. Price premium for hybrid buses
• 6.6. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
• 6.7. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored
• 6.8. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
• 6.9. Comparison of battery technologies
• 6.10. Where supercapacitors fit in
• 6.11. Energy density vs power density for storage devices
• 6.12. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
• 6.13. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
• 6.14. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
• 6.15. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with “gen” in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
• 6.16. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
• 6.17. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years
• 6.18. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
• 6.19. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
• 6.20. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
• 6.21. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
• 6.22. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
• 6.23. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
• 6.24. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
• 6.25. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
• 6.26. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
• 7.1. Global bicycle and car production millions
• 7.2. US oil production and imports
• 7.3. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2010-2020
• 7.4. HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006
• 7.5. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
• 7.6. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
• 7.7. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
• 7.8. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
• 7.9. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
• 7.10. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
• 7.11. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
• 7.12. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
• 7.13. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007
• 7.14. Hybrid vehicle sales by model
• 7.15. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
• 7.16. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %.
• 7.17. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
• 7.18. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
• 7.19. Total sales and hybrids
• 7.20. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.21. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.22. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
• 7.23. Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010

Press Release

混合動力車及純電動汽車市場的預測（從2012年到2022年）

Global Information, Inc.已開始銷售IDTechEx Ltd.所發行的報告書「Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2012-2022 (油電混合車及純電動車：2012年∼2022年)」

一年前大眾相信混合動力車及純電動汽車有3個授權技術。就是電池、電動機及電路（電氣、電子、遠端資訊處理）。

然電池控制著車的成本和性能，隨著混合動力車及純電動汽車的成功，主要是將電池成本控制低一點，並提高性能。尤其是提高純電動汽車的能源密度變成很重要。

另一方面，今後10年顯然並非資金只投資在開發混合車。現今插電式混合動力車佔了重要地位。10年後，最積極的製造商會比以往型的混合動力車銷售更多插電式混合車。

為實現此目標，價格應儘可能與以往型車差距小或無差異。此外，全部Range的電動汽車不只是外表，還必須實用。

總之，電池的能源密度現今亦成為混合動力車的關鍵。

牽引馬達（Traction motor）決定車的價格和性能，然沒有非常受重視，甚至已經完全不重要。

大體上全部馬達利用的鏑和釹價格高漲，顯示有使用那些物質的車價格以及將來可能會艱困的狀況。

供應商為開發不含磁鐵的馬達而激烈交鋒。尤其是非同期馬達和切換式磁阻同期馬達 (Switched-reluctance motor）受到矚目。

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