產業用及商業用電動運輸機器（EV）市場：2012∼2022年

產業用及商業用電動運送機器(EV)的銷售額部分、目前占EV市場整體的60％、市場規模在今後10年間預計擴大4.2倍。在此領域中、堆高機等重量物運送機器、公車、卡車、計程車、作業船及商業船等皆涵蓋在內、未來的商業用電動飛機也會有加入的可能性、成為主要中心的是、需求較大的上傳產業用車輛和下載商業用車輛。產業用的EV部分期待業務效率的提升、商業用的EV期待緩和混雑、環境污染物質的大幅削減及環境領域的各國政府之目標達成皆有所貢獻、與其他種類的EV有所差異、很少依賴補助金制度。

本報告書內容包括:油水混合方式和純電氣方式的產業用EV和商業用EV為焦點、技術和市場的趨勢之明確化、市場的成長促進因素、各種EV市場的趨勢等、EV所使用的主要零件的介紹、內容綱要摘記如下:

第1章 實施摘要和結論

• 調查範圍
• 種類和發展趨勢
• 2012∼2022年的預測
• 市場的成長促進因素
• 廠商的數量
• 純電動EV的回歸
• 主要零件
• 成功的策略

第2章 介紹

• 定義和調查範圍
• 油水混合方式和純電動方式的比較
• 油水混合EV

第3章 市場的成長促進因素

• 各種種類的EV市場發展趨勢
• 油水混合EV市場的成長促進因素
• 商業用EV的優點

第4章 大型產業用EV

• 此領域所包含的EV
• 業界的課題
• 日產和三菱的電動堆高機
• 豐田
• Zheijang Goodsense Forklift(中國)
• 廠商的清冊
• 市場的趨勢
• 2012∼2022年的市場預測

第5章 產業用及商業用的小型EV

• 此領域所包含的EV
• 後位區分
• 卡車
• 當地服務用EV
• 機場所使用的EV
• 小型乘用機器
• 產業用的小型支援機器
• 廠商的清冊
• 2012∼2022年的市場預測

第6章 公車

• 電動公車歷史
• 純電動公車
• 2012∼2022年的市場預測

第7章 計程車

• 中國、歐洲、墨西哥、英國、日本的電動計程車計畫
• 2011年三菱在日本所實施的計程車引進計畫
• 2011年後半所引進的墨西哥計程車

第8章 產業用、商業用EV的主要零件

• 油水混合車價格的提升的因素
• EV的種類
• 各種燃料
• 電池的成本和性能
• 能源儲蓄技術的問題點
• 純電動方式
• 改良推動的純電動EV
• 超大型電容器和超級電容
• 超級電容的最合適用途
• 系列方式和平行方式
• 油水混合EV的運用模式
  • 插電型油電混合
  • 充電・放電模式
  • 融合模式
  • 充電・持續模式
  • 混合模式
• 優點和不利點
• 超級電容取代電池的可能性
• 微油水混合的名稱之不適當化
• 大幅的油水混合化
• 超級電容電池（Baster）
• 何謂增程裝置
• 增程裝置所必要的因素（2012∼2022年）
• 第3代的增程裝置
• 燃料電池增程裝置
• EV用環境發電技術
• 高壓技術的發展趨勢
• 能源密度／出力密度提升的元件選定
• 分散元件的發展趨勢
• 高平坦性身體到智慧型觸碰的發展趨勢
• 牽引電池
• 牽引引擎
• 定義和背景
• 牽引引擎的發展趨勢
• 引擎的形狀
• 引擎的搭載位置
• 純電動EV－輪內引擎
• 實用化的引擎範例
• 2011年和2021年的EV市場

附錄1：IDTechEx的出版物和顧問服務

圖表

Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.

Global sales of heavy industrial EVs by ex-factory unit price

Source: IDTechEx

Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy, in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.

This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future technological development roadmaps.

The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.

Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and costs.

Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly, most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised electric vehicle sectors such as cars.

Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs by numbers thousands

Source: IDTechEx

Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars. Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast charging of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.

Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared research.

Main areas the report covers

The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial & commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors, there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of latest company activity.

Forecasts

Industrial and commercial electric vehicles represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market today and their market value will grow 4.2 times in the next decade. The report gives ten year forecasts by sector, explaining exactly why some sub sectors will see stellar growth and others will see very little growth.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• 1.1. Scope of the report
• 1.2. Categories and trends
• 1.3. Forecasts 2012-2022
• 1.4. Market drivers
  • 1.4.1. Synergies
  • 1.4.2. Importance of battery price
• 1.5. Numbers of manufacturers
• 1.6. Full circle back to pure EVs
• 1.7. Key components
  • 1.7.1. Batteries
  • 1.7.2. Motors
  • 1.7.3. Power trains
• 1.8. Winning strategies

2. INTRODUCTION

• 2.1. Definitions and scope of this report
  • 2.1.1. Learning from the past
• 2.1. Hybrid and pure electric vehicles compared
• 2.2. Hybrid electric vehicles

3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS

• 3.2. Trends for all types of vehicle
  • 3.2.1. Peak car and light truck - different electric vehicles needed
  • 3.2.2. Market drivers for electric industrial and commercial vehicles
• 3.3. Hybrid market drivers
• 3.4. Advantages of electric commercial vehicles

4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS

• 4.1. What is included
• 4.2. Industry challenges
• 4.3. Caterpillar USA
• 4.4. Nissan and Mitsubishi electric forklifts Japan
• 4.5. Toyota Japan
• 4.6. Zheijang Goodsense Forklift China
• 4.7. Listing of manufacturers
• 4.8. Market trends
• 4.9. Market forecasts 2012-2022

5. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS

• 5.1. What is included
• 5.2. Sub categories
• 5.3. Trucks
  • 5.3.1. ALTe
  • 5.3.2. Azure Dynamics
  • 5.3.3. Balqon Pure Electric Trucks
  • 5.3.4. Beiqi Foton Motor Co China
  • 5.3.5. China Vehicles Company
  • 5.3.6. Daimler Fuso
  • 5.3.7. Freightliner, Enova, Daimler and Wal-Mart USA
  • 5.3.8. Nano-Optonics Energy Japan
  • 5.3.9. Odyne hybrid truck propulsion
  • 5.3.10. Paccar with Eaton
  • 5.3.11. Tyrano USA
• 5.4. EVs for local services
  • 5.4.1. Ford Azure Dynamics
  • 5.4.2. Ford Quantum
  • 5.4.3. Peugeot Citroen and Mitsubishi Motors
  • 5.4.4. UPS & NREL
  • 5.4.5. Renault and DHL
• 5.5. Airport EVs
• 5.6. Small people-movers
• 5.7. Light industrial aids
  • 5.7.1. Mining - PapaBravo Canada
• 5.8. Listing of manufacturers
• 5.9. Market forecasts 2012-2022

6. BUSES

• 6.1. History of electric buses
• 6.2. Pure electric buses
  • 6.2.1. Smith - Wanxiang
• 6.3. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery
• 6.4. Market forecast for buses 2012-2022

7. TAXIS

• 7.1. Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
• 7.2. Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan 2011
• 7.3. Mexico taxis late 2011

8. KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES

• 8.1. Types of electric vehicle
• 8.2. Many fuels
• 8.3. Born electric
• 8.4. Pure electric vehicles are improving
• 8.5. Series vs parallel hybrid
• 8.6. Modes of operation of hybrids
  • 8.6.1. Plug in hybrids
  • 8.6.2. Charge-depleting mode
  • 8.6.3. Blended mode
  • 8.6.4. Charge-sustaining mode
  • 8.6.5. Mixed mode
• 8.7. Microhybrid is a misnomer
• 8.8. Deep hybridisation
• 8.9. Hybrid vehicle price premium
• 8.10. Battery cost and performance are key
• 8.11. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
• 8.12. Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
• 8.13. Where supercapacitors fit in
• 8.14. Advantages and disadvantages
• 8.15. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
• 8.16. Supercabatteries or bacitors
• 8.17. What is a range extender?
• 8.18. What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
• 8.19. Three generations of range extender
  • 8.19.1. First generation range extender technology
  • 8.19.2. Second generation range extender technology
  • 8.19.3. Third generation range extender technology
• 8.20. Fuel cell range extenders
• 8.21. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
• 8.22. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
• 8.23. Trend to high voltage
• 8.24. Component choices for energy density/ power density
• 8.25. Trend to distributed components
• 8.26. Trend to flatness then smart skin
• 8.27. Traction batteries
  • 8.27.1. After the shakeout in car traction batteries
  • 8.27.2. The needs have radically changed
  • 8.27.3. It started with cobalt
  • 8.27.4. Great variety of recipes
  • 8.27.5. Other factors
  • 8.27.6. Check with reality
  • 8.27.7. Lithium winners today and soon
  • 8.27.8. Reasons for winning
  • 8.27.9. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
  • 8.27.10. Winning chemistry
  • 8.27.11. Titanate establishes a place
  • 8.27.12. Laminar structure
  • 8.27.13. Niche winners
  • 8.27.14. Fluid situation
• 8.28. Traction motors
• 8.29. Definition and background
• 8.30. Traction motor trends
• 8.31. Shape of motors
• 8.32. Location of motors
• 8.33. Born electric - In-Wheel Electric Motors
• 8.34. Examples of motors in action
• 8.35. EV Market 2011 and 2021
• 8.36. Total change

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

• 1.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
• 1.1. Relevant characteristics of the three categories of industrial and commercial vehicle
• 1.2. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.2. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in 2010 by application with numbers for China
• 1.3. 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced
• 1.3. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
• 1.4. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.5. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 3.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
• 3.2. Some primary hybrid market drivers
• 3.3. Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
• 3.4. Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
• 4.1. Twenty examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
• 4.2. Distribution of trade volume for heavy industrial EVs
• 4.3. Global league table of powered industrial truck manufacturers 2010 by value of sales
• 4.4. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 4.5. Sales of heavy electric vehicles by region by percentage of units
• 5.1. 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
• 5.1. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
• 5.2. Breakdown of global market in 2010 for light industrial and commercial vehicles - global park, new vehicles, % electric, number electric, ex-factory unit price and value for the subsections Full Size Buses, Other On Road, Airport
• 6.1. 79 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses or their power trains (the main added value), with country of headquarters and image
• 6.2. 36 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
• 6.3. Forecast for electric buses 2012-2022
• 7.1. Eight projects testing pure electric taxis
• 7.2. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 8.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
• 8.2. Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
• 8.3. Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
• 8.4. Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends
• 8.5. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
• 8.6. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
• 8.7. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
• 8.8. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles
• 8.9. 68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details.
• 8.10. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 8.11. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
• 8.12. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 8.13. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded

• 1.1. Global market in billions of dollars ex-factory for the different categories of industrial and commercial electric vehicles
• 1.2. Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector
• 1.3. Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
• 1.4. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
• 1.5. Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.6. Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
• 1.7. Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.8. Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
• 1.9. Electric vehicle upfront cost vs their traction battery energy storage
• 1.10. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by application in 2010
• 1.11. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles in China by application in 2010
• 1.12. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars and other electric vehicles
• 1.13. Some new commercial electric vehicles shown at eCarTec 2011.e
• 1.14. Isuzu hybrid truck acting as road furniture in Tokyo in 2012
• 2.1. EV sectors with the largest gross sales value and profits over the years
• 2.1. Toyota hybrid outdoor forklift
• 2.2. Electric vehicle value chain
• 2.3. Advantages and disadvantages of hybrid vs pure electric vehicles and the electric vehicle markets they dominate.
• 3.1. Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport

佔據EV市場整體約60％的產業用及商業用電動運輸設備的銷售額，今後10年間將呈4.2倍成長

Global Information, Inc.開始銷售IDTechEx Ltd.所發行的報告書「Industrial and Commercial Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 2012-2022: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players (產業用及商業用電動運輸機器（EV）市場：2012∼2022年)」

根據IDTechEx Ltd.公司調查顯示，佔據EV整體市場約60％的產業用及商業用電動運輸設備(EV)的銷售額，預計今後10年將呈4.2倍增長。

該市場中，包含公車，卡車，計程車，其他輕型產業•商用汽車，以及作業•商用船等。未來商用電動飛機也將加入該市場，但將不會擴大到需求大的開•卸載用產業•商用汽車。

產業•商用EV有利於各國政府提出的環境改善目標的達成，與其他EV不同，不用依賴制度。

本市場調查報告書提供產業用•商業用EV市場相關資料調查•分析，技術•市場趨勢，推動市場成長要素，各種EV市場趨勢等詳細資訊。

IDTechEx Ltd.公司1999年設立於英國。是專門從事印刷電子產品，RFID，薄膜太陽能發電，智慧包裝的諮詢業務的調查公司，2006年獲得英國最具權威的國際貿易部門獎項。