Abstract
Starting with an examination of national regulatory policies and the
strategies of the leading FTTx players, this report looks at fibre-to-the-home
rollouts as of March 2008 in the world's pioneer FTTx markets.
Broadband and ultra-broadband markets in the US
- For several years now, the American market has been dominated by cable
companies which are able to market triple play bundles. As of June 2007,
they enjoyed virtually nationwide presence, and were reporting a 52.5% share
of the broadband market.
The RBOCs, meanwhile, continue to be hampered in some states by the obligation
to obtain a franchise on a state-by-state, and even city-by-city basis to be
able to market TV services.
To better compete with cablecos, the RBOCs are thus turning to optical fibre
which allows them to deliver much more powerful services.
By the end of 2007, FTTx access accounted for 2.5% of the US market, or 2.4
million customers (2.1 million FTTH/B subscribers), of which Verizon controls
66% and AT&T 10%. These two telcos are the central players in this nascent
market which is growing at a rate of 130,000 new customers a month.
Aside from the RBOCs, America's FTTH market is very fragmented, populated by a
host of local operators. As of March 2008, 600 independent local exchange
carriers (ILEC) were serving a total base of 833,000 FTTH customers.
The number of ILEC projects appears to be increasing steadily: forecasts
indicate that 41% of ILECs that have not yet launched a fibre optic network
plan to do so in the coming years.
These local players are particularly interested in more sparsely populated
areas and are enjoying a certain degree of success with penetration levels
reaching as high as 52%.
- One particular feature of the American housing landscape is the low
population density and the small percentage of people living in
multipledwelling units (MDU), which is a drawback for large-scale FTTH
rollouts. Added to this, the length of the copper local makes for cautious
predictions over the potential success of VDSL.
- America's FTTx market is not subject to strict regulation. As
concerns access to fibre, there are no obligations or restrictions on sharing
or renting infrastructure such as dark fibre. However, duct sharing between
operators in the US takes place through commercial agreements over which the
FCC has no power to intervene should disputes arise. Furthermore, the
franchises required to market TV services are generally secured on a
state-by-state basis, and more and more of them are being awarded.
- As a result, in the coming years, the expected growth in the
ultra-broadband market and the more flexible process for obtaining TV
franchises should allow telcos to make a sizeable dent in cablecos' dominance
of the market. But such is not yet the case, as cablecos are actually managing
to increase their lead: as the RBOCs are losing telephone subscribers, cable
companies are gaining them, plus Verizon and AT&T's FTTx subscribers are not
really new customers, as most of them have simply upgraded from ADSL.
- Forecasts indicate close to 22 million FTTH/B subscribers in the United
States by 2013, and over 3 million VDSL customers.
Table of Contents
1. The United States
- 1.1. Broadband and ultra-broadband market
- 1.2. Regulation
- 1.3. Market features and forecasts up to 2013
- 1.4. Case studies
- 1.4.1. Verizon
- 1.4.2. AT&T
- 1.4.3. Local carriers
2. Japan
- 2.1. FTTH/B market
- 2.2. The regulatory debate in Japan
- 2.3. Market features and forecasts up to 2013
- 2.4. Case studies
- 2.4.1. NTT/B-Flet' s
- 2.4.2. KDDI/Hikari-one
3. South Korea
- 3.1. The FTTH/B market
- 3.2. The regulatory debate in South Korea
- 3.3. Market features and forecasts up to 2013
- 3.4. Case studies
- 3.4.1. Hanaro Telecom (SKT)
- 3.4.2. KT
Figures
- Figure 1: End market: FTTx in the American broadband market
- Figure 2: Telcos' share of the FTTx market in the United States
- Figure 3: Growth of FTTH/B and VDSL subscribers in the United States
- Figure 4: American FTTH market by type of provider
- Figure 5: Breakdown of the FTTH technologies being used by local players
- Figure 6: End market: FTTx in Japan' s broadband market
- Figure 7: NTT' s annual investments in FTTH/B
- Figure 8: FTTx operator market share in Japan
- Figure 9: New tariffs proposed for accessing NTT fibre
- Figure 10: Growth of FTTH/B and VDSL subscribers in Japan
- Figure 11: Building certification programme in South Korea
- Figure 12: Top FTTx access providers in South Korea
- Figure 13: Growth of FTTH/B and VDSL subscribers in South Korea
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