FTTx經濟：獲利條件

Following Japan and the United States, massive deployment projects for Very High Speed networks are envisioned for Europe. The majority of these projects are apparently still held back by a number of factors: regulations (optical loop unbundling?), technology (fiber to the customer?) and demography (target only large cities and areas that allow easy access to passive infrastructures?). These factors illustrate the uncertainty that looms above the economic elements of these projects, which entail a considerable investment.

Using a schema of the different costs and revenue, particularly investment expenses, the study measures how a certain number of variables could affect the deployment of these access networks: population density, technical architecture and penetration rates. These measures are then sub-divided according operator category (incumbent, new, alternative and utility operators). More generally, it is important to create an overall picture, including a few general market factors (size, level of competition, price, etc.), which would allow the balance of operations on a large scale to be tested.

Most importantly, these different calculations will enable us to pinpoint the key business model parameters for the different types of operators and subsequently, the conditions required for a successful Very High Speed access deployment .

• Are the current deployments truly significant?
• What are the main lessons to be learned?
• What criteria do industry players use before deciding to enter into VHS?
• Which are the key factors of the VHS access economy?
• How do the different adjustment variables of the model affect deployment?
• Which architectures are best suited to the different possible configurations?
• What is the minimum market share required in order to be profitable?

1. Very High Speed developments in progress

• 1.1. Overall level of VHS deployment
• 1.2. Projects by country
• 1.3. Lessons from first deployments
  • 1.3.1. VHS infrastructure regulations
  • 1.3.2. Availability and accessibility of passive infrastructures
  • 1.3.3. Network architecture
  • 1.3.4. The broadband market and competitive landscape
  • 1.3.5. Demography and dwelling-unit types

2. Simulations and business models

• 2.1. The players
  • 2.1.1. Incumbents
  • 2.1.2. Alternative operators
  • 2.1.3. New entrants
  • 2.1.4. Energy suppliers
  • 2.1.5. The players: a comparison
• 2.2. The model
  • 2.2.1. Model structure
  • 2.2.2. General hypotheses
• 2.3. The effects of the adjustment variables
  • 2.3.1. Architectural options
  • 2.3.2. Types of dwelling units
  • 2.3.3. Coverage and penetration
  • 2.3.4. Rate of deployment
  • 2.3.5. The players and methods of accessing passive infrastructures
  • 2.3.6. Structure of competition
  • 2.3.7. ARPU

3. Summary and analysis

• 3.1. Deployment economy of VHS access networks according to the different scenarios
  • 3.1.1. FTTH from very dense areas to moderately dense areas
  • 3.1.2. Nationwide FTTN+VDSL deployment
• 3.2. Key factors and main obstacles for VHS profitability

APPENDICES

• 1. Appendix 1: Project technical sheets
• 2. Appendix 2: Technical definitions
• 3. Appendix 3: Economic performance details by scenario
• 4. Appendix 4: Glossary

Illustrations

• Table 1 Number of FTTH subscribers by region at the end of 2006
• Table 2 Number of FTTH subscribers in Europe by country at the end of 2006
• Table 3 The 14 VHS projects analysed
• Table 4 SWOT Matrix: Incumbents
• Table 5 SWOT Matrix: Alternative operators
• Table 6 SWOT Matrix: New entrants
• Table 7 SWOT Matrix: Energy suppliers
• Table 8 Primary advantages and risks for the main VHS players
• Table 9 Cost variables of the model
• Table 10 Summary of the key factors and main obstacles for VHS deployment profitability

• Figure 1 General structure of the model
• Figure 2 FTTN+VDSL architecture
• Figure 3 Point-To-Point Ethernet Technology (E-P2P)
• Figure 4 PON technology
• Figure 5 Cost per connected outlet by architectural type in the urban context
• Figure 6 Cost per outlet connection per dwelling-unit type for GPON technology
• Figure 7 Cost per outlet connection per dwelling-unit type for FTTN+VDSL technology
• Figure 8 Civil engineering and cable costs based on population density(1) for GPON technology
• Figure 9 Civil engineering and cable costs based on the average number of apartments per building for GPON technology(1)
• Figure 10 Investment level per subscriber according to penetration rate based on the urban context and GPON technology
• Figure 11 Impact on investment per subscriber by shifting the penetration rate from 30% to 60%, based on the urban context for the three main architectures
• Figure 12 The level of investment per subscriber based on the coverage rate within the urban context and GPON technology using a penetration/coverage ratio of 50%
• Figure 13 Impact on investment per subscriber by shifting the penetration rate from 30% to 60%, based on urban context and penetration/coverage ratio of 50%
• Figure 14 Estimated FCF based on fast deployment in the suburban context - GPON technology
• Figure 15 Estimated FCF based on gradual deployment in the suburban context - GPON technology
• Figure 16 Estimated FCF based on the urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 17 Estimated FCF for operators owning their own infrastructure in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 18 Estimated FCF for operators in a competitive, urban context and shared infrastructure - GPON technology
• Figure 19 Estimated FCF for wholesale operators in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 20 Estimated FCF for retail operators in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 21 Estimated FCF with doubled ARPU(1) in the urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 22 Estimated FCF for incumbent operators - GPON technology
• Figure 23 Estimated FCF for alternative operators - GPON technology
• Figure 24 Estimated FCF for retail operators - GPON technology
• Figure 25 Estimated FCF for incumbent operators - FTTN+VDSL technology
• Figure 26 Estimated FCF for alternative operators - FTTH+VDSL technology
• Figure 27 Estimated FCF for retail operators - FTTH+VDSL technology
• Figure 28 Basic structure of FTTN architecture
• Figure 29 Basic structure of FTTH architecture
• Figure 30 Active Ethernet technology
• Figure 31 Ethernet Point-To-Point technology (E-P2P)
• Figure 32 PON technology
• Figure 33 FTTH network topologies