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市場調查報告書

數位經濟2025:通訊·網際網路部門的生態系統

Digital Economy 2025: The Future of Telecom and Internet Ecosystems

出版商 IDATE DigiWorld 商品編碼 350717
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 76 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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數位經濟2025:通訊·網際網路部門的生態系統 Digital Economy 2025: The Future of Telecom and Internet Ecosystems
出版日期: 2016年01月27日 內容資訊: 英文 76 Pages
簡介

本報告提供數位經濟,尤其是通訊·網際網路部門的未來展望相關調查,提供您目前主要趨勢與未確定因素,複數的發展方案設定與各個方案的展望,各方案的網際網路連接&業務收益的預測等彙整資料。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 調查手法

第3章 主要趨勢

  • 各種技術
    • 強化5G·LTE·光纖等性能
    • 低成本感測器
    • 雲端&虛擬化技術
    • 更Powerful的安全解決方案
  • 各種用途
    • 從離線到線上,行動
    • 擁有·同時利用複數設備是基本
    • 無償 (或低成本) 服務越發當然
  • 經營模式
    • 商品搭售
    • 區分化
    • 去中介
    • Softwarisation
    • 資料的貨幣化
  • 法律規章
    • 從事前到事後體制的變化
    • 更對稱的法律規章
    • 地區性地不同規則
  • 產業重組

第4章 主要未確定因素

  • 技術
    • SDN
    • 網路的最佳化
    • 現實網路性能
    • IoT (物聯網)
    • 巨量資料
    • RFID
    • 行動電話的NFC
    • 開放標準
    • 3D列印
  • 企業
    • 重組
    • 網際網路領域的新企業
  • 投資
    • 農村的NGA的發展
    • 新興國家的接入基礎設施
    • OTT與基礎設施:是租用還是自家公司化
  • 經營模式
    • 個人資料的貨幣化
    • 向各種產業的擴張
    • Servicisation
    • 雙面的經營模式
  • 法律規章
    • 平台
    • 隱私 vs 執法
    • 財政的最佳化
  • 用途
    • 隱私/安全上的疑慮
    • 對網際網路服務的支付接受度

第5章 2025年轉動的方案

  • 形成今後產業的各方面定義
    • 實現因素的可用性
    • 個人資料利用的強度
  • 方案矩陣
  • Mall 方案
    • 方案的特徵
    • 產業結構
    • 用途
    • 經營模式
    • 法律規章
    • 實現本方案所需的趨勢
  • 開放式方案
    • 方案的特徵
    • 產業結構
    • 用途
    • 經營模式
    • 法律規章
    • 實現本方案所需的趨勢
  • 自動化方案
    • 方案的特徵
    • 產業結構
    • 用途
    • 經營模式
    • 法律規章
    • 實現本方案所需的趨勢
  • 信託方案
    • 方案的特徵
    • 產業結構
    • 用途
    • 經營模式
    • 法律規章
    • 實現本方案所需的趨勢

第6章 信號

  • Mall 方案
    • 多樣化 (M2M·巨量資料)
    • 網際網路企業的開放式方案之物理清倉特賣
    • 基礎設施的國際化
    • 大規模收購
    • 相關連網型物體 (綁定套組)
  • 開放式方案
    • 網路API
    • 巨量資料計劃
    • 見解&綜合資料銷售
    • MVNO
    • HTML5
    • 標準IoT
    • VRM / 資料控制工具
  • 自動化方案
    • 自助服務
    • 網路外包
    • 共享經濟/ Uberization
    • Just-in-time strategy
  • 信託方案
    • 國內路由
    • 加密
    • 付款安全工具

第7章 主要成果

  • 市場規模
  • 各類別明細

第8章 價值鏈的影響

  • Mall 方案
  • 開放式方案
  • 自動化方案
  • 信託方案

圖表

調查對象企業

  • Airbnb
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • AltaVista
  • Altice
  • Amazon
  • America Movil
  • American Apparel
  • Android
  • Apple
  • AT&T
  • Axonix
  • BASE
  • Broadband Genie
  • BuyIn
  • Cablevision
  • Cabovisao
  • craigslist
  • DataSpark
  • Decathlon
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Digital Advertising Alliance
  • DoubleClick
  • eBay
  • Ebuzzing
  • Ericsson
  • Facebook
  • Flux Vision
  • Free
  • Get
  • Ghostery
  • Google
  • Hulu
  • IAB UK
  • Kabel Deutschland
  • Mozilla
  • MySpace
  • Nest
  • Netflix
  • Nokia
  • NTT DoCoMo
  • Numericable
  • O2
  • OECD
  • Ono
  • Orange
  • PT
  • 樂天
  • SFR
  • SilverLight
  • SingTel
  • Skype
  • Softbank Corporation
  • Sprint
  • Swisscom
  • Tata
  • TDC
  • Telefonica
  • Telenet
  • Telenor
  • TeliaSonera
  • Tencent
  • Tesco
  • Tesla
  • T-Mobile
  • Traffic Zen
  • Twitter
  • Uber
  • Verizon
  • Virgin Mobile
  • VKontakte
  • Vodafone
  • Walmart
  • WhatsApp
  • Yahoo!
  • Yammer
  • YouTube
  • YuMe
目錄
Product Code: M15538MR

This report develops a perspective of where the digital economy, and in particular the telecoms and Internet sectors, might be headed over the next decade, to 2025.

The starting point of the study was to identify key trends that have clearly emerged and major uncertainties, which might push the industry to develop in one direction or another.

Four contrasting yet plausible scenarios for the digital economy industry in 2025 are developed. They are projected against a two-by-two matrix. One axis is the presence of enablers providing specialised solutions, which other companies can leverage to build their own businesses upon. The other dimension is the intensity with which personal data are being used, serving to indicate the range of services which telcos and Internet players will provide.

The report concludes by presenting quantitative projections for each scenario: Mall, Open, Automated and Trust.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology & definitions

  • 2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
  • 2.2. Definitions
  • 2.3. Scenarios

3. Key trends

  • 3.1. Technologies
    • 3.1.1. Enhanced performance with 5G, LTE, fibre and more
    • 3.1.2. Low-cost sensors
    • 3.1.3. Cloud and virtualisation technologies
    • 3.1.4. More powerful security solutions
  • 3.2. Usages
    • 3.2.1. From offline, to online, and now to mobile
    • 3.2.2. Multiple device ownership and simultaneous use becoming the norm
    • 3.2.3. Free (or at least low-cost) services increasingly becoming the default mindset
  • 3.3. Business Models
    • 3.3.1. Bundling
    • 3.3.2. Segmentation
    • 3.3.3. Disintermediation
    • 3.3.4. Softwarisation
    • 3.3.5. Data monetisation
  • 3.4. Regulation
    • 3.4.1. Transition from ex-ante to ex-post regimes
    • 3.4.2. More symmetric regulation
    • 3.4.3. Geographically differentiated rules
  • 3.5. Consolidation

4. Major uncertainties

  • 4.1. Technology
    • 4.1.1. SDN
    • 4.1.2. Network optimisation
    • 4.1.3. Real network performance
    • 4.1.4. Internet of Things
    • 4.1.5. Big Data
    • 4.1.6. RFID
    • 4.1.7. NFC in mobile phones
    • 4.1.8. Open Standards
    • 4.1.9. 3D Printing
  • 4.2. Players
    • 4.2.1. Consolidation
    • 4.2.2. New players on the Internet market
  • 4.3. Investments
    • 4.3.1. Rural NGA deployment
    • 4.3.2. Access infrastructure in emerging and developing countries
    • 4.3.3. OTTs and infrastructure: rent or internalise
  • 4.4. Business models
    • 4.4.1. Monetisation of personal data
    • 4.4.2. Expansion into verticals
    • 4.4.3. Servicisation
    • 4.4.4. Two-sided business models
  • 4.5. Regulation
    • 4.5.1. Platforms
    • 4.5.2. Privacy vs. law enforcement
    • 4.5.3. Fiscal optimisation
  • 4.6. Usages
    • 4.6.1. Privacy / security concerns
    • 4.6.2. Willingness to pay for Internet services

5. Scenarios for 2025

  • 5.1. Defining dimensions to shape the industry by 2025
    • 5.1.1. Availability of enablers
    • 5.1.2. Intensity of use of personal data
  • 5.2. Scenario matrix
  • 5.3. Mall
    • 5.3.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.3.2. Industry structure
    • 5.3.3. Usages
    • 5.3.4. Business Models
    • 5.3.5. Regulation
    • 5.3.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.4. Open
    • 5.4.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.4.2. Industry structure
    • 5.4.3. Usages
    • 5.4.4. Business models
    • 5.4.5. Regulation
    • 5.4.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.5. Automated
    • 5.5.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.5.2. Industry structure
    • 5.5.3. Usages
    • 5.5.4. Business model
    • 5.5.5. Regulation
    • 5.5.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
  • 5.6. Trust
    • 5.6.1. Scenario characteristics
    • 5.6.2. Industry structure
    • 5.6.3. Usages
    • 5.6.4. Business models
    • 5.6.5. Regulation
    • 5.6.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario

6. Signals

  • 6.1. Mall
    • 6.1.1. Diversification (M2M and Big Data)
    • 6.1.2. Internet players open physical outlets
    • 6.1.3. Infrastructure internalisation
    • 6.1.4. Large-scale acquisitions
    • 6.1.5. Associated connected objects (bundles)
  • 6.2. Open
    • 6.2.1. Network APIs
    • 6.2.2. Big data initiatives
    • 6.2.3. Insights and aggregated data sales
    • 6.2.4. MVNOs
    • 6.2.5. HTML5
    • 6.2.6. Standards IoT
    • 6.2.7. VRM / data control tools
  • 6.3. Automated
    • 6.3.1. Self-service
    • 6.3.2. Network outsourcing
    • 6.3.3. Sharing economy / Uberisation
    • 6.3.4. Just-in-time strategy
  • 6.4. Trust
    • 6.4.1. National routing
    • 6.4.2. Encryption
    • 6.4.3. Payment security tools

7. Main results

  • 7.1. Overall market sizing
  • 7.2. Breakdown per category

8. Impact along the value chain

  • 8.1. Mall
  • 8.2. Open
  • 8.3. Automated
  • 8.4. Trust

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: 2025 scenario matrix
  • Figure 2: Number of LTE subscribers worldwide, 2012-2019
  • Figure 3: Adoption of cloud computing, by industry sector
  • Figure 4: Numbers of Internet users, by access, 2010-2019
  • Figure 5: Comparison of ownership levels for laptop and desktop computers, tablets and smartphones in selected countries, in October 2014
  • Figure 6: User willingness to change to a paid ad-free model on favourite site
  • Figure 7: Verizon and AT&T shared data plans
  • Figure 8: Time Warner Cable Signature Home
  • Figure 9: Disintermediation of the value chain
  • Figure 10: Consolidation drivers/hurdles matrix
  • Figure 11: Capex and opex reduction from implementation of NEC SDN solution (programmableFlow)
  • Figure 12: Standards initiatives relevant to the Smart Home
  • Figure 13: 3D printing main barriers
  • Figure 14: High-tech acquisitions by Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon
  • Figure 15: Top Internet companies by market cap as of May 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
  • Figure 16: FTTH cost per home passed by type of area (EUR/hh)
  • Figure 17: Rural fixed broadband coverage
  • Figure 18: Facebook Internet drone concept
  • Figure 19: Amazon AWS cloud infrastructure locations
  • Figure 20: Growth of ad-blocking software users worldwide
  • Figure 21: Google attempts at territorial expansion
  • Figure 22: The automotive value chain and business activities for stakeholders
  • Figure 23: Spotify premium and free users
  • Figure 24: Members of Reform Government Surveillance coalition, in April 2015
  • Figure 25: Number of VoD providers in selected European countries
  • Figure 26: World's largest security breaches, as of October 2015
  • Figure 27: Frequently used online services: comparison of their use and trust levels (2015 survey)
  • Figure 28: Potential ways in which user can add more security and data over their data
  • Figure 29: The Ghostery browser extension giving browsers more control
  • Figure 30: User perception on whether they should be given the option to pay for services or receive them free in exchange for personal data and, should such an option exist, which they would take
  • Figure 31: Scenario matrix
  • Figure 32: Telcos upgrading their shops to 'Apple-like' look and feel
  • Figure 33: From traditional silos in M2M to a consolidated data usage
  • Figure 34: Amazon book store
  • Figure 35: Acquisition strategies, by Internet giants
  • Figure 36: A Samsung Galaxy smartphone offer bundled with Galaxy Gear smart watch
  • Figure 37: Communication APIs available from operators
  • Figure 38: i-concier service by NTT DOCOMO
  • Figure 39: Steps of the ladder of non-MNO-branded mobile offers
  • Figure 40: The Datacoup dashboard
  • Figure 41: Virgin Media: seven steps to select the most adequate package
  • Figure 42: Top Internet companies by market cap as of December 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
  • Figure 43: The 'e-mail made in Germany' consortium
  • Figure 44: Satisfaction and usage of Mobile BankID
  • Figure 45: WhatsApp Q&A stating that the messages are encrypted
  • Figure 46: The anatomy of an Apple Pay transaction
  • Figure 47: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 48: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 49: US market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 50: EU5 market sizing for telecom and Internet services
  • Figure 51: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
  • Figure 52: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
  • Figure 53: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
  • Figure 54: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
  • Figure 55: Mobile data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 56: Paid VoD world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 57: Paid digital contents (music and eBooks) world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 58: Consumer fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 59: IoT services world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 60: Big data, RTB and social ads world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 61: Cloud world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 62: Corporate fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios,
  • Figure 63: E-commerce world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
  • Figure 64: Online security world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios

List of players reviewed / mentioned

  • Airbnb
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • AltaVista
  • Altice
  • Amazon
  • America Movil
  • American Apparel
  • Android
  • Apple
  • AT&T
  • Axonix
  • BASE
  • Broadband Genie
  • BuyIn
  • Cablevision
  • Cabovisao
  • craigslist
  • DataSpark
  • Decathlon
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Digital Advertising Alliance
  • DoubleClick
  • eBay
  • Ebuzzing
  • Ericsson
  • Facebook
  • Flux Vision
  • Free
  • Get
  • Ghostery
  • Google
  • Hulu
  • IAB UK
  • Kabel Deutschland
  • Mozilla
  • MySpace
  • Nest
  • Netflix
  • Nokia
  • NTT DOCOMO
  • Numericable
  • O2
  • OECD
  • Ono
  • Orange
  • PT
  • Rakuten
  • SFR
  • SilverLight
  • SingTel
  • Skype
  • SoftBank
  • Sprint
  • Swisscom
  • Tata
  • TDC
  • Telefónica
  • Telenet
  • Telenor
  • TeliaSonera
  • Tencent
  • Tesco
  • Tesla
  • T-Mobile
  • Traffic Zen
  • Twitter
  • Uber
  • Verizon
  • Virgin Mobile
  • VKontakte
  • Vodafone
  • Walmart
  • WhatsApp
  • Yahoo!
  • Yammer
  • YouTube
  • YuMe

Slideshow contents

  • The key trends with reasonably predictable outcomes which affect the digital economy sphere
  • Major uncertainties affecting the digital economy up to 2025
  • Building four contrasting scenarios for the next decade
  • Scenario matrix
  • The four scenarios at a glance
  • Illustration of scenarios, using today's examples
  • Main quantitative results: growing revenues, shifting weights
  • The telecom sector: different revenues in the four scenarios
  • The Internet sector: continued healthy growth
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