固定通訊及行動通訊的整合（FMC）：全球市場分析、策略展望及至2012年的預測（第2版）

Abstract

This 2nd edition of Fixed Mobile Convergence strategic report looks at the evolving nature of FMC networks, business opportunities and challenges and includes key forecasts to 2012. The report critically evaluates current and future developments, their ramifications and presents potential future scenarios as FMC continues to develop and occupy a position at the forefront of operator strategy.

Key Coverage

• Extensive forecasts to 2012 - including subscriber numbers and revenues for FMC split by consumer and enterprise and further by region and extensive broadband forecasts
• Femtocell and picocell development - examines the opportunities and threats from different player perspectives of femtocells, what the ramifications might be of deployment and what impact this will have on FMC development
• Service evolution - identifies and evaluates the services most likely to succeed in the emerging convergent marketplace
• Access technologies - considers all aspects of FMC access technologies from a strategic standpoint considering usage scenarios and inherent strengths and weaknesses
• Detailed case studies - in-depth analysis including service details, market focus, service pricing, strategic analysis and partnerships from leading players including: BT Fusion, Hutchison 3, AT&T and Ubiquisys
• Regional analysis - analyses the potential of FMC in 13 key countries, focusing on: broadband penetration, progress of local loop unbundling and availability of DSL, WiFi network penetration, MVNO proliferation and VoIP development

Fixed Mobile Convergence answers business-critical strategic questions:

• What are the key forecasts for fixed mobile convergence?
• How can I better understand the market?
• What will the telecoms market look like as it migrates toward convergence and IP centric world (web 2.0 and Ipv6)?
• How can I understand the technology behind FMC in a user friendly format?
• What is the risk of VoIP and how can I formulate defence strategies in the wireless and fixed environment?
• What is the long-term evolution of FMC considered from the perspectives of Networks, Devices and Services?

Who should read this report

• Operators - evaluate and quantify opportunities and threats emerging with FMC and assess various fixed wireless and core network technologies enabling FMC
• MVNOs and service providers - assess the opportunities and challenges of FMC in relation to the MVNO service proposition, analyse the successful business model from the perspective of specific industries including, brand owners, retailers, business service providers and content providers
• Device, network and component manufacturers - understand the FMC business proposition and opportunities within it; identify key players, potential partners and examine current and evolving roles in the FMC service provisioning value chain
• Vendors - understand the FMC value proposition and the platform/software provider' s role within it; identify opportunities for service provisioning and support
• Consultants, analysts and venture capitalists - benefit from unbiased, reasoned hard facts, free from industry hype and from clear business intelligence to support recommendations and investment
• Regulators - ascertain the impact of evolving FMC markets on regulatory environment; compare regulatory developments on the global stage and gauge effectiveness of legislative approaches, their implications and long term consequence.

• BT (update of Fusion Plus)
• AT&T Unity
• Ubiquisys
• 3 UK X-Series

Table of Contents

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MARKET STATUS
• Market drivers
• FMC defined
• FMC and convergence
  • Figure 2.1: User position pre- and post-convergence in FMC
• The challenge of convergence
• Problems of FMC definition
• FMC for networks, devices and services - a ' pragmatic' definition
  • Top tier stack - generalised definition
  • Second tier stack - device-specific definition
  • Third stack - network-specific definition
  • Fourth stack - service-specific definition
• Defining FMC attributes
  • Figure 2.2: Hierarchy of FMC' s defining attributes
• Basic FMC usage scenarios
• FMC voice usage models
  • Figure 2.3: RAN and application layer role in FMC call event
  • Application layer solutions
• Usage models and sphere of influence
• Mobile network operators
  • Figure 2.4: Mobile network operator usage scenario
• Fixed network operators
  • Figure 2.5: Fixed network operator usage scenario
• Hybrid operators
  • Figure 2.6: Hybrid network operator usage scenario
• Broadband operators
  • Figure 2.7: Broadband network operator usage scenario
• Other operators

• FMC VALUE CHAIN PLAYERS
  • Figure 3.1: Convergence roadmap from an FMC perspective
• Service providers
• Pure mobile network operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
  • Other mobile FMC operators
• Fixed network operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Hybrid operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Broadband operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Other players
  • Specialist VoIP providers
  • MVNOs
    • Figure 3.2: MVNO service evolution stages
  • Commercial Wi-Fi providers
• FMC service provider strategic positioning
  • Figure 3.3: FMC value chain strategic positioning matrix
  • Dominant pure mobile operators
  • Tier 2-3 pure mobile operators
  • Broadband service providers
  • Hybrid operators
  • Other players
• Service support providers
• Device and network manufacturers
• Software application and hardware vendors
  • Network upgrade
  • BSS and OSS/software upgrade
  • OS vendor opportunities
  • Conclusion
• Industry opinion
  • Figure 3.4: The dominant value chain player type in 2012

• STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
• FMC evolution
  • Figure 4.1: Convergence roadmap from an FMC perspective
• FMC service evolution
• FMC network evolution
  • Figure 4.2: When will convergent networks reach mass-usage levels/domination?
• FMC device evolution
• Corporate reorganisation for FMC players
• Organisational change strategies
  • Figure 4.3: Constraints and enablers for change management in relation to FMC
• Mobile operator attitudes to FMC
• Opex and interconnection
  • Counter argument to the claims that FMC will reduce opex
• Alternative voice platforms
• MNO defined access
• Softswitch solutions and FMC
• IP network integration ROI
  • Vendor perspectives on the evolution of IP and FMC
• Wi-Fi
• Fixed mobile substitution (FMS)
• Mobile operators' tacit support of FMC
• Dual mode device issues
  • Figure 4.4: Is a converged device (a device that fulfils all user requirements from entertainment to communication) required/desired by users?
• Developments conducive to FMC take-up
• Effect of 4G
• Naked DSL
  • Figure 4.5: Network infrastructure and naked DSL
• Unbundling the local loop
• Fibre to the home (FTTH) and fibre to the node (FTTN)

• TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS
• Viability of WLAN FMC
  • Figure 5.1: Fixed wireless versus cellular
• Historical fixed wireless voice solutions
  • DECT comparison with fixed wireless FMC
    • Figure 5.2: Selected European historical DECT trials
• Requirements for successful use of FMC WLAN
• Technical challenges and solutions of voice over Wi-Fi
  • Wi-Fi 802.11e standard
  • Wireless Multimedia Extensions (WME)
  • Wi-Fi 802.11r standard
  • Wi-Fi 802.21 standard
• Cost comparison - cellular versus fixed wireless
• WLAN and Wi-Fi from the end user perspective
  • Figure 5.3: Average length of commercial Wi-Fi session
• Challenges of unregulated fixed wireless
• In-building cellular
• Key attributes of in-building cellular solutions
• Distributed Antenna Systems
• Picocells and femtocells
  • Challenges and opportunities
  • Operator developments
    • Figure 5.4: Dominant in-building cellular technologies by 2012
• Next generation mobile technologies
• HSDPA
  • Figure 5.5: Selected global HSDPA launches and trials
  • HSDPA versus WiMAX
    • Figure 5.6: Selected HSDPA capable handsets
  • HSDPA pricing challenge
  • HSDPA and homezone propagation
• WiMAX
  • WiMAX and voice
  • MNO reactions to WiMAX
  • WiMAX developments encouraging convergence
    • Figure 5.7: 802.16m standard evolution
• UMA and IMS
  • Competitive environment
  • Long-tem development of UMA
  • IMS usage models
• Proprietary solutions
  • Naked SIP
• General device strategies
  • Figure 5.8: Selected Wi-Fi devices, launched, planned and discontinued
• Handset vendor and operator relationships
• FMC devices: a new handset segment
  • Figure 5.9: Timescale for dual mode device prevalence
  • Figure 5.10: Consumer and enterprise FMC handset expectations
• Network and access considerations
  • 3GPP Long Term Evolution (LTE)
    • Figure 5.11: UMTS evolution
    • Figure 5.12: LTE position in cellular network evolution
• Air interface

• SERVICE APPROACH AND PROVISIONING STRATEGIES
• Commercial viability of VoIP
  • Figure 6.1: VoIP market approaches - defensive and offensive
• Commercial example: Skype
  • Commercial strategy
  • Skype for enterprise use
• Approach to content and services
• Challenges for FMC services beyond voice
  • Figure 6.2: Are these challenges being adequately tackled by those value chain players involved with them?
• Off-net open access
• Triple and quadruple play
• Consumer and enterprise FMC services
  • Consumer FMC services
  • Enterprise FMC services
• Pricing and service bundling
• Fixed pricing anomalies
• Pricing as an incentive to take up FMC
  • Figure 6.3: Likelihood of flat rate pricing
• Handset pricing
• Advertising/subsidising

• REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Europe
  • Figure 7.1: Selected European country broadband household forecasts versus European total, 2007-2012
• Germany
• UK
  • Figure 7.2: Ofcom 1800Mhz low-power auction bidders
• France
• North America
  • Figure 7.3: North American broadband household forecasts, 2007-2012
• US
  • Figure 7.4: Vonage patent infringements
• Canada
• Latin America
  • Figure 7.5: Selected Latin American country broadband household forecasts versus Latin American total,2007-2012
• Brazil
• Mexico
• Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7.6: Selected Asia Pacific country broadband households forecasts versus Asia Pacific total, 2007-2012
• China
• Japan
• South Korea
• India
• Middle East and Africa
  • Figure 7.7: Selected MEA broadband household forecasts versus MEA total, 2007-2012
• Egypt
• South Africa

• CASE STUDIES
• Pure fixed line operator: BT Fusion
• Background
  • Figure 8.1: BT Wireless launches and market strategy
• Service details
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
• Pricing
• Strategic analysis
• Pure mobile operator: 3 UK X-Series - a convergent service approach
• Background
  • Figure 8.2: 3' s WCDMA network rollout
• Service details
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
  • Figure 8.3: X-Series devices, launched and planned
• Pricing
  • Figure 8.4: X-Series subscription models
• Strategic analysis
• Hybrid operator: AT&T
• Background
• Service details
  • Figure 8.5: Selected AT&T telecommunication and broadcast services
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
• Pricing
  • Figure 8.6: Selected unity pricing plans
• Strategic analysis
• Manufacturer: Ubiquisys
• Background
• Network/hardware/service solutions
• Devices.
• Pricing/manufacture costs
• Market focus
• Strategic analysis

• BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
• Market indicators
  • Figure 9.1: Expected completion of network rollout Operator opportunities and challenges
• Mobile operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for mobile operators
    • Figure 9.2: Reduced opex FMC routed cellular call Tier 2-3 mobile operators
• Fixed operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for fixed operators
• Hybrid operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for hybrid operators
• Broadband operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for broadband operators
• Other players
  • Figure 9.3: Global MVNO service segments, 3Q06
• Customer opportunities and challenges
• Consumer
  • Advantages and opportunities
  • Challenges and threats
• Enterprise
  • Advantages and opportunities
  • Challenges and threats
• Convenience
• Consumer sector analysis
• Enterprise sector analysis
  • Figure 9.4: Selected PBX providers and proprietary protocols
• Customer business models
• Choosing the appropriate customer segment
• Customer proposition
• Service opportunities
  • Figure 9.5: Commercial FMC service launch
  • Figure 9.6: Launched service' s customer targets
  • Figure 9.7: Service development by 2012
• VoIP
  • Figure 9.8: In your opinion, what percentage of global cellular traffic will migrate to fixed (including fixedwireless Wi-Fi)?
  • Figure 9.9: FMC service revenue generation as a percentage of total revenues in 2010 and 2015
• Enterprise use of VoIP
  • Figure 9.10: FMC enterprise service revenue generation as a percentage of total FCMC revenues in 2010
• Commercial models of VoIP
  • Figure 9.11: Global Wi-Fi hot spot distribution
  • Figure 9.12: Regional Wi-Fi usage, 2006
  • Figure 9.13: Top countries for Wi-Fi use and average session length. 2006
• Skype
• Content partnerships and advertising
• FMC services and the DRM challenge

• FORECASTS
• FMC forecasts' methodology and definition
• FMC subscribers
  • Definition
  • Forecasting methodology
    • Figure 10.1: FMC primary indicators
• FMC revenue forecasting methodology
• Top-line figures and analysis
• General assumptions
• Early inflection points - global analysis
  • Figure 10.2: Total FMC voice business and consumer subscribers, 2007-2012
• Regional analysis
  • Figure 10.3: Total FMC voice subscribers by region, 2007-2012
  • Figure 10.4: Total FMC voice revenues by region, 2007-2012
• Regional market indicators
  • North America.
    • Figure 10.5: North American FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.6: North American FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Latin America
    • Figure 10.7: Latin American FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.8: Latin American FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Asia Pacific
    • Figure 10.9: Asia Pacific FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.10: Asia Pacific FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Europe
    • Figure 10.11: European FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.12: European FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Africa and the Middle East
    • Figure 10.13: Africa and the Middle East FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.14: Africa and the Middle East FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
• Business and consumer forecasts
  • Figure 10.15: Business and consumer FMC voice subscriber forecasts by business and consumer, 2007-2012
  • Figure 10.16: Business and consumer FMC voice revenue forecasts by business and consumer, 2007-2012

APPENDIX

INFORMA TELECOMS & MEDIA FMC INDUSTRY SURVEY 2007