未來的行動端子市場（第12版）

未來的行動端子市場（第12版） 是由出版商Informa Telecoms & Media在2011年01月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金4792起跳。

簡介

2009年行動端子市場受到不景氣的影響、但是2010年轉移至回復基準、預計今後的銷售台數會持續增加。但是因為處於競爭激烈的市場中、要計算符合規模的利益呈現困難的狀況、此外、智慧型電話的成長也同時對產業的動態等產生變化。

本報告書內容包括:全球的行動端子市場的現況和展望的調查分析、行動端子的地區・產品種類・技術種類等各種因素的銷售實績・預測（∼2015年）、行動網路的世代及技術、加入者成長的展望、主要供應商的銷售趨勢・SWOT分析、元件市場的趨勢等彙整、內容綱要摘記如下:

調查內容

• 未來的行動端子（第12版）：實施摘要（PowerPoint）
• 未來的行動端子（第12版）：預測（Excel）
• 未來的行動端子（第12版）：供應商的SWOT分析（Excel）
• 未來的行動端子（第12版）：ASP・COG預測（Excel）
• 未來的行動端子（第12版）：實施摘要
• 寬頻速度行動網路的藍圖
• 行動加入者：2015年預計達50億
• 全球市場：仍然有加入者成長的餘地
• 全球加入者的4分之3：使用預付卡服務
• 行動端子的銷售台數
• 北美：從2011年開始3.5G端子銷售為主要市場
• 拉丁美洲的端子銷售：飽和的徵兆
• 亞太：受不景氣的影響期待會有急速且長期的回復
• 歐洲的行動端子市場：雖然受到不景氣的影響良好的3.5G端子銷售代領回復
• 非洲・中東：短期間2.5G的銷售會帶領市場、但是預計會轉移到3.5G
• HSDPA端子的銷售：2012年開始成為市場的先鋒
• 2011年主要端子零件仍會持續不充足
• Research In Motion (RIM) 加入者基礎：Blackberry邁進消費者市場預計會達到5,000萬
• 行動播送TV的展望：類比規格・新興市場再度燃燒
• 外部記憶體插槽
• 行動端子・設備專用GPS
• 行動端子 供應商的OS環境的適合度
• 行動OS市場區分・定義・市場力學
• 對iOS壓力的擴大
• 行動端子市場中智慧型電話佔有率的擴大
• 行動過程技術的進化
• 行動無線數據機和晶片組
• Qualcomm：晶片組集積之道
• Texas Instruments：多媒體數據機的焦點・停止對基帶的投資
• WLS（舊Infineon）的表現
• 行動晶片組市場的Broadcom
• ST-Ericsson：行動晶片組供給中為第3名、但是尚未呈現盈餘
• 行動端子市場中內建儲存設備的市場區分
• 行動端子螢幕技術：分析・預測
• 行動端子市場的電池長命化課題
• 行動端子的硬體・軟體要件：各市場區分
• ASP・行動端子成本：各市場區分
• ASP分析：功能・地區分類
• 低成本端子：ULC・低價格多功能行動・智慧型電話、等

目錄

Abstract

“The handset market has seen a recovery in 2010, following the impact of the economic downturn in 2009 and sales volumes are expected to continue rising. However, in the highly competitive market striking the balance between providing scale and making healthy margins is proving difficult. Growth in the smartphone market has also attracted more players to the sector, causing a shake-up of the industry dynamics, which has brought with it a re-examination of segmentation, costs and the user experience.” Dave McQueen, Principal Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media.

Overview

Although the global recession has impacted the volume of mobile handsets in recent years, this trend has not been seen in equal measure across all segments. While demand on the mid-tier fell away, sales of new smartphones has grown, due largely to consumer demand and mobile operators' focus on increasing smartphone penetration.

Now in its 12th Edition, Future Mobile Handsets is the definitive guide to the worldwide handset market and provides an in-depth analysis of mobile handset device trends, key industry issues, market segmentation, advances in hardware technology and software solutions, and comprehensive market data and five-year forecasts.

Some of the current industry-critical issues covered in this new edition include:

• Just how much has the global recession affected the outlook for handset sales volume?
• Who are the major players in the handset value chain and why?
• What are the latest segmentation trends and strategies?
• Where could opportunities from the global downturn emerge? What are the prospects for the emerging markets?
• Which features, technology and software are offering a competitive edge?
• How will the average cost of goods (COGs) across the whole mobile handset market affect average selling price and margins?

For over a decade senior executives have relied on our unrivalled coverage, in-depth analysis and reliable forecasts as their preferred information source on the market.

This research will help you:

• Operators
  • Understand how the handset manufacturers are segmenting the market and how this aligns with your customers and markets
  • Review the emerging features and functionality, their impact on network traffic and the revenue-generating opportunities
  • Analyse which handsets and manufacturers should be an essential part of your portfolio.

• Handset manufacturers
  • Review your manufacturing and out-sourcing strategies by looking at the strategies being employed by your competitors. Establish the market best practice
  • Establish your competitive position through a thorough review of the significant players
  • Align your five-year strategy and sales projections with the latest market estimates.

• Component and software suppliers
  • Understand the challenges that the handset manufacturers and operators face and ensure your business is aligned
  • Align your long-term sales projections with accurate global estimates
  • Review your research and development strategy with market demand

Countries/regions covered in our forecasts and analysis:

• Asia-Pacific
• Eastern Europe
• Latin America
• Middle East & Africa
• North America
• Western Europe

Table of Contents

Future Mobile Handsets: 12th edition Executive Summary - PowerPoint file (52 slides)

Future Mobile Handsets 12th edition forecasts - Excel file

Future Mobile Handsets 12th edition vendor SWOTs - Excel file

Future Mobile Handsets 12th edition ASP and COG forecasts - Excel file

Future Mobile Handsets (12th edition): Executive summary

• Fig. 1: Mobile technology evolution paths
• Fig. 2: Global mobile subscribers, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global mobile subscriber* penetration, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Global mobile handset sales, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: Global mobile handset sales, by technology generation groups, 2009-2015
• Fig. 6: Changes in consumer requirements for mobile handsets
• Fig. 7: Global handset sales and market share by leading vendors, 2007 to Jan-Sep 2010
• Fig. 8: Global, selected handset feature penetration rates, 2009-2015
• Fig. 9: Global smartphone sales, 2009-2015
• Fig. 10: Global smartphone sales, by OS type, 2009-2015
• Fig. 11: Global value of the mobile handset chipset market, 2009-2015
• Fig. 12: Battery technology roadmap, 1960-2015
• Fig. 13: Global, mobile handset sales, by number of colors supported by the display, 2009-2015
• Fig. 14: Global mobile handset ASP, 2009-2015
• Fig. 15: Global, mobile handset market value, smartphones vs. nonsmartphones, 2009-2015

The roadmap towards broadband-speed mobile networks: LTE is expected to stimulate handset sales in the mid-term

• Fig. 1: Mobile network generations and deployment timelines
• Fig. 2: Mobile network generations
• Fig. 3: Mobile technology evolution paths
• Fig. 4: Global 1xEV-DO Revision A deployments, Jun-10
• Fig. 5: Global, commercial HSPA+ deployments, Jun-10
• Fig. 6: Comparison of Evolved HSPA and LTE

Mobile subscribers to hit nearly 5 billion by 2015

• Fig. 1: Global mobile subscribers, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Global mobile subscribers, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global mobile subscriber penetration, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Global mobile subscriber penetration, by region and major market, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: Global top 10 investors and operators by proportionate equity subscriptions, by region, Jun-10
• Fig. 6: Global mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2009-2015

Still room for subscriber growth in global regions

• Fig. 1: North America mobile subscribers, by country and technology generation, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Latin America mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Asia Pacific mobile subscribers, by main markets and technology generation, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Europe mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: Africa and the Middle East mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2009-2015

Three-quarters of global subscriptions now on prepaid services

• Global, prepaid penetration of the mobile customer base, by region, 2003-3Q10

Mobile handset volume sales set to trend back in 2011

• Global mobile handset sales, by region, 2009-2015

North America 3.5G handset sales to lead market from 2011

• Fig. 1: North America, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: US, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Canada, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015

Latin America handset sales showing signs of underlying saturation

• Fig. 1: Latin America, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Brazil, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015

Asia Pacific handset sales fail to escape ravages of the downturn but a rapid and prolonged recovery is expected

• Fig. 1: Asia Pacific, mobile handset sales, by sub-region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Asia Pacific, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Japan, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: China, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: South Korea, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 6: India, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 7: Rest of Asia Pacific, Developed, handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 8: Rest of Asia Pacific, Developing, handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015

Europe's mobile handset market crippled by economic recession but strong 3.5G handsets sales set to lead recovery

• Fig. 1: Europe, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Western Europe mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Eastern Europe, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Russia, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015

Africa and the Middle East mobile handset sales are driven by 2.5G in the short term, but forecast to move quickly to 3.5G

• Fig. 1: Africa and the Middle East, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Africa, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Middle East, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2009-2015

Volume sales of HSDPA handsets to lead market from 2012

• Fig. 1: Global mobile handset sales, by technology generation groups, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Global mobile handset sales, by main technology family, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global GSM family mobile handset sales, by technology, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Global CDMA family mobile handset sales, by technology, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: China, TD-SCDMA mobile handset sales, 2009-2015
• Fig. 6: Global, LTE mobile handset sales, by region, 2011-2015

Shortage of key handset components will continue into 2011

Smartphone popularity, fuelled by their appearance in the prepaid sector, is obliging a segmentation rethink

• Fig. 1: Consumer segmentation principles
• Fig. 2: Mobile handset segmentation by consumer lifestyle
• Fig. 3: Changes in consumer requirements for mobile handsets
• Fig. 4: Average selling price and minimum selling price for handsets, by feature set, 2009 and 2015
• Fig. 5: Global mobile handset sales, by technology segmentation, 2009-2015

Smartphone specialists break into the “Top Five” handset vendors demonstrating how much the market has changed

• Fig. 1: Global handset sales, 1998-2010
• Fig. 2: Global handset sales and market share by leading vendors, 2007 to Jan-Sep 2010

Nokia's restructuring pain must deliver growth prospects

• Fig. 1: Nokia shipments, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 2: Nokia, ASP and operating margin, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 3: Nokia SWOT analysis

Motorola's shift to smartphone strategy paying dividends

• Fig. 1: Motorola sales volume, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 2: Motorola SWOT analysis

Samsung addressed its long-term smartphone weakness in 2010 and the Google Nexus S will strengthen its Android portfolio for 2011

• Fig. 1: Samsung, shipments, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 2: Samsung, ASP and operating margin, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 3: Google Nexus S
• Fig. 4: Samsung SWOT analysis

Sony Ericsson's change in fortunes propelled by improved product mix and smartphone sales

• Fig. 1: Sony Ericsson, mobile handset shipments, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 2: Sony Ericsson SWOT analysis

LG's smartphone weakness is undermining company profitability

• Fig. 1: LG shipments, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 2: LG, ASP and operating margin, 2006-3Q10
• Fig. 3: LG SWOT analysis

Smaller mobile handset vendors begin challenge for share across all segments and price tiers

Apple soars to fourth in smartphone market

• Apple iPhone sales volume, 2007-2010

High Tech Computer (HTC) sales volume doubles in 2010 as Android takes hold

• HTC handsets sales volume, 2006-2010

Huawei's branded-device strategy relies on Android and operator acceptance

• Huawei Technologies structure

ZTE looks to the smartphone market for medium-term growth

• ZTE handset shipments, 2007-1H10

Research In Motion (RIM) subscriber base tops 50 million as Blackberry looks to break further into the consumer market

• RIM handset sales and BlackBerry subscriber base, 1QFY09 to 2QFY11

Cameraphones drive into lower handset tiers and show signs of perceptible usage stimulate interactive applications market

• Fig. 1: Share of cameraphone models launched, by megapixels, 2007 to Jan-Sep 2010
• Fig. 2: Global cameraphone sales, 2009-2015

Sales for mobile video-capable handsets are growing in tandem with 3G+ rollout and popularity of online content

• Global, mobile video handset sales, 2009-2015

Mobile broadcast television prospects rekindled by analog standards and the emerging markets

External memory slots

• Global, sales for mobile handsets with external memory slots, 2009-2015

Bluetooth to increase penetration across mobile handset segments as low power version takes to the market

• Fig. 1: Bluetooth low-energy technology
• Fig. 2: Global, Bluetooth mobile handset sales, 2009-2015

Near Field Communication looks set to finally fulfil expectations in 2011

WLAN data off-load opportunities helps stimulate rise in WLAN-capable mobile handsets

• Global, dual mode WLAN-enabled mobile handset sales, 2009-2015

GPS for mobile handsets and devices

• Fig. 1: Overview of available positioning determining technologies
• Fig. 2: Global, GPS-enabled handset shipments, 2009-2015

Mobile handset vendors adapting the OS landscape

Mobile-OS-market segmentation, definitions and market dynamics

• Segmentation of handset-OS platforms and application environments by openness

In the race for smartphone platform success, pressure on iOS is rising

Smartphones forecast to take increasing share of mobile handset market

• Fig. 1: Global smartphone sales, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Global smartphones sales, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global smartphone sales penetration of total sales, by region and sub-region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Operating systems defined by platform type
• Fig. 5: Global smartphone sales, by OS type, 2009-2015

Advances in mobile processing technology

• Fig. 1: CPU power consumption vs. processing speed for different architectures and silicon technologies
• Fig. 2: Detailed architecture of a multicore processor
• Fig. 3: Early ARM-based multicore processors targeting smartphones and portable devices
• Fig. 4: Multimedia applications performance: Integration vs. software on hardware
• Fig. 5: Attributes of different ARM architectures and implementations
• Fig. 6: ARM processor licensees by architecture version and type, up to 1H10
• Fig. 7: SWOT analysis for ARM's RISC-based processors

Mobile wireless modems and chipsets

• Fig. 1: Different network evolution paths
• Fig. 2: Market positioning of the leading handset chipset suppliers
• Fig.3: Single-chip vs. separate processing components by handset market tier
• Fig. 4: Global sales of devices embedding a separate applications processor from the baseband, 2009-2015
• Fig. 5: Major differences between System on Chip (SoC) and System in Package (SiP) architectures
• Fig. 6: Global value of the mobile handset chipset market, 2009-2015
• Fig. 7: Revenue share of the leading mobile chipset manufacturers, 1H10
• Fig. 8: The average value of chipset components per device: Smartphones vs. non-smartphones, 2009-2015

Qualcomm: The road towards chipset integration

• Fig. 1: Qualcomm's business model
• Fig. 2: Qualcomm product portfolio and roadmap
• Fig. 2: Snapdragon platform split by generation and examples of enabled devices

Texas Instruments is focusing on multimedia processing and no longer investing baseband

• Fig. 1: Market opportunities for different TI chipsets
• Fig. 2: Texas Instruments: roadmap of the OMAP generations and their technology specifications

The performance of WLS, formerly of Infineon - what has Intel inherited?

• Intel's WLS chipset product portfolio in 2010 and roadmap

Broadcom in the mobile chipset market

• Fig. 1: Broadcom business model
• Fig. 3: Broadcom chipset product portfolio and segmentation

ST-Ericsson ranks third in mobile chipset supply but business is not profitable yet

• Fig. 1: ST-Ericsson product portfolio
• Fig. 2: ST-Ericsson's platform roadmap
• Fig. 3: ST-Ericsson business model

Segmentation of embedded storage in the mobile handsets market

• Global, mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and embedded storage memory footprint, 2009-2015

Mobile handset screen technology analysis and forecasts

• Fig. 1: Global, mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and the number of colors supported by the display, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Common mobile display sizes and resolutions worldwide, 2005-2010
• Fig. 3: Global, mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and display resolution, 2009-2015

The challenges facing battery longevity in the mobile handset market

• Fig. 1: Battery capacity versus mobile applications and services demand
• Fig. 2: Battery technology attributes and pricing
• Fig. 3: Global, mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and battery capacity, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Battery technology roadmap, 1960-2015

Mobile handset hardware and software requirements by market segment

• Fig. 1: Main components and variables used for estimating the total cost of the device and the ASP
• Fig. 2: Trends in terminal software BOM*, wireless royalties and IPR costs, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global average hardware requirements by mobile handset segment, 2009-2015
• Fig. 4: Handset hardware and software components

ASPs and mobile handset costs by market segment

• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, basic phone volume sales, 2009-2015
• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, low-feature phone volume sales, 2009-2015
• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, feature-rich phone volume sales, 2009-2015
• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, low-end smartphone volume sales, 2009-2015
• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, high-end smartphone volume sales, 2009-2015
• Global, average sale price and cost breakdown, total handset volume sales, 2009-2015 (mil.)

ASP analysis by feature set and region

• Fig. 1: Global, mobile handset ASP, by market segment from basic phone to high-end smartphone, 2009-2015
• Fig. 2: Global mobile handset market value, by region, 2009-2015
• Fig. 3: Global mobile handset market value, by feature set, 2009-2015

Low-cost handsets from ULC to value feature-phones and smartphones

• Handsets' minimum and average sale prices, by feature set, 2009-2015

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